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DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 8 June

DAQMAN

WARNING AS DAQMAN HUNTS ANOTHER 28-1 ROYAL ASCOT WINNER: Daqman continues to look exactly one week ahead to Royal Ascot with words of warning about next Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup, which landed him Invisible Man (WON 28-1) last year.
 
SIX LAYS OUT OF SEVEN: He made it six successful lays out of seven when he started his day yesterday with a deliberate loser, Atyaab (unplaced 9-2)
 
NAP MAKES ALL THE RUNNING: It was then a back-and-lay delight as Daqman’s nap of the day, April Fool (WON 2-1), made all the running, challenged neck and neck as the rider dropped his whip but going away again to finish clear. He also tipped Danvilla (WON 13-2).
 
IT’S A DAQMAN SUPER SEQUENCE: Taking his best result in each race tipped in, and regarding lays as wins, Daqman’s current sequence of success is 13012111441
 
BETDAQ NIGHT AT KEMPTON PARK: Look out tonight for four more Betdaq Wednesday sponsored races at Kempton Park. With analysis by Daqman, of course.

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Don’t be fooled by the bookies. Last year, I chose my Royal Hunt Cup bets from the low draw, including 28-1 winner, Invisible Man and, sure enough, the result by stall was 11, 12, 2 and 5 in a field of 29.

That had followed stalls 1 and 2 housing three winners from four on the straight course on the opening day, Tuesday. So wait for the Hunt Cup decs and wait for the Tuesday indication again and get the Betdaq surplus value. That’s what the philosopher said, so don’t rush in to ante-post prices where Engels feared to tread.

With Workforce expected to be diverted to the Sandown Eclipse, the markets suggest that the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes is a match between So You Think and the Prix Ganay winner, Planteur.

With Betdaq layers offering 19.0 bar two, there is a temptation to swerve the Frenchman and look among the long-shots for an each-way bet: that may be good thinking on the day; wouldn’t put you off. But be warned that Planteur is one of those rare French horses who wants a sound surface.

Good going is forecast and Planteur has won his last two on ‘good’ at Longchamp, last time beating the Arc third, Sarafina, giving 3lb. That’s form which says that ‘So You’ will have something to think about.

Third Wednesday warning: I hear that William Haggas, who pulled off a 20-1 Oaks shock with Dancing Rain, is delighted with Dever Dream for the Windsor Forest. Last year’s form? 11131211.

6.15 Kempton (betdaq.com Every Wednesday at Kempton Apprentice Handicap): In the five one-mile handicaps with double-figure fields at Kempton Park in the last month – four sponsored by Betdaq – seemingly advantageous stalls below five have reached the frame only once, and draw positions from 7 to 12 have secured 12 of the 15 places, four of the five wins.

Eastern Gift’s last AW run over the mile was a CD win here in March off only 3lb lower, thanks to a good gallop throughout. Gallantry, Having A Ball and Cactus King are also CD winners, but are giving the years away to Eastern Gift, Hecton Lad and Sasheen.

Sasheen managed to win from the rail in April (stall 2) but is unlikely to take them along again from 13, and Hecton Lad’s CD win, also in April, was probably down to first-time blinkers. Lucy Barry has a good record for Pat Phelan but the stable is currently out of form.

The overall view, without necessarily trying to pick a winner, must be to have a back-and-lay Catchanova, a good second from the front at Goodwood and ideally drawn to make his presence felt for most, if not all, of this tricky contest.

6.45 Kempton (betdaq.com Exchange Price Multiples Maiden Stakes): Two-year-old non-handicap favourites have a near-50% record at Kempton, and the top track yards for juveniles are John Gosden and Jane Chapple-Hyam, both represented here.

Main Focus (Gosden) looks well up to this if he can reproduce his close sixth of 15 in a Newbury race, from which first, third and fourth have all won since. Flying Trader (Chapple-Hyam) is a speculative outsider but Fallon is booked and the grey is drawn almost adjacent to the pace.

7.15 Kempton (Lay Back And Win At betdaq.com Handicap): Favourites are three out of four since 2007, with all four winners set 9st 4lb or more. In three of those years, the winning ratings have been 77, 78 and 80.

With no horse on a mark higher than 75 today, it suggests that the rags have even less chance of upsetting those who have earned some respect from the handicapper.

Mosaicist is related to some decent sprinters and did the job well in a fast time at Yarmouth but it’s a bit worrying that James Fanshawe has kept this filly down at a low level for her handicap debut, as if he isn’t expecting much improvement. She seemed to have a chance in better races at Sandown and Goodwood on Friday.

She has to give weight to Speightowns Kid, who turned over some older sprinters on the course last week, going right away as if today’s extra furlong is well within his compass.

7.45 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap): Two seasons out of three this race has produced a Royal Ascot runner: last year’s winner, Arctic Cosmos (John Gosden), ran second at in the King Edward V11 Stakes and, three years ago, Unleashed won as hot favourite for Henry Cecil before finishing down the field in the Queens Vase.

Cecil and Gosden are back with Baltic Light and Antarctic but they’re among 10 previous winners this year, six of them last time out.

I’m taking Western Prize. The High Chaparral colt has been given time to mature since landing a gamble at Lingfield over a mile and will be ideally suited by today’s trip. In fact, one of his half-brother’s won this race in 2003 when it was called the Be A Wednesday Winner Stakes. You said it!

DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.7pts win RYEDANE (2.30 Beverley)
BET 6pts win MAHKAMA and 4.8pts win DARE TO DREAM (2.50 Haydock)
BET 7pts win on each KEYS and WILD COCO (3.50 Haydock)
BET 10pts win MAIN FOCUS and 2.9pts win FLYING TRADER (6.45 Kempton)
LAY to win 10pts MOSAICIST and BET 8pts win (nap) SPEIGHTOWNS KID (7.15 Kempton)
BET 4pts win WESTERN PRIZE and 1pt win (saver) ANTARCTIC (7.45 Kempton)

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DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 7 June

DAQMAN

ROYAL ASCOT COUNTDOWN: A WEEK TO GO TO THE GREAT DUEL: Daqman takes his spyglass out to form and facts on what is likely to be the greatest duel between racehorses in 36 years.
 
FIVE LAYS OUT OF SIX: Daqman skittled another paper favourite yesterday when Roman Dancer (2nd 11-4) was beaten at Folkestone, his fifth successful lay in the last six. There’s another one today.

JUST A STROLL FOR 5-1 SORRENTO: But best result yesterday was Daqman’s selection of Prince Of Sorrento (WON 5-1), who won as he liked at Windsor last night, ridden nearly five lengths clear and eased down. Daqman took 7.6 on Betdaq.

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What a cliff-hanger! If you’ve thrilled to the Drama Derby and been dancing in the rain at the Golden Guineas, you ain’t seen nothing yet: here comes the hottest duel since the clash of the Titans.

They’ve talked about Grundy v Bustino for years. In fact, it was 1975 when courageous Grundy had to break the King George race record time by an amazing two and a half seconds in order to resist the brave and persistent bull-charge of the year older Bustino.

But Canford Cliffs v Goldikova next Tuesday could render the old story obsolete if, as expected, no quarter is given between two sensational milers, in a French-English decider that could heal the wounds of two Derbys lost in one weekend. Or open them wider.

Goldikova will be going for back-to-back wins in the Queen Anne and her 14th at Group 1 or Grade 1 level, whereas the two-years-younger Canford Cliffs has raced just nine times. On official ratings in England, Canford Cliffs is 2lb in front of the mare; on Racing Post figures, he is 1lb behind. That’s how close it is. That’s what a debate it is.

Canford Cliffs (Richard Hannon, rating 127): Aged 4, four wins in a row. Six out of nine. In the frame in all the nine starts. The four consecutive were Group 1, his only two-year-old win, the Group-2 Coventry Stakes. All success on sound surface. No runs on soft.

By Tagula out of a Marju mare, and not bred in the purple. Won by six lengths and seventh lengths in his two-year-old career but noted for a power surge, then just doing enough in three consecutive wins of a neck to little more than a length.

Goldikova (Freddie Head, rating 125): Aged six; 16 wins from 22 starts. Unplaced once. Four wins in a row twice. Four consecutive Group 1, and three consecutive three times. Has won on soft ground but defeats have come on soft, very soft and heavy

By Anabaa out of a Blushing Groom mare; again not the top rank of breeding. Goldikova’s particular racing trait is her nonchalance on the bridle; a high cruising speed with seeming disdain for her rivals before delivering a decisive late run.

COLLATERAL FORM: Goldikova beat Dick Turpin a length in the Prix de la Foret last October (soft). Canford Cliffs beat Dick Turpin a length in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last year (good).

Goldikova beat Rip Van Winkle 8 lengths when ‘Goldie’ was receiving 3lb in last years Queen Anne Stakes. Canford Cliffs beat Rip Van Winkle a neck, when ‘Canford’ was receiving 8lb, in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last July (good to firm).

FLAWS: Canford Cliffs can prove hard to settle off a steady pace, has far less experience than Goldikova and is vulnerable to her waiting with the pace. Won only an ordinary Lockinge to start his season but rating maintained at 127 (achieved in Sussex Stakes).

Goldikova is giving two years away and her form actually dipped last season  - albeit scoring at the highest level – with her rating down from 131 in the summer of 2009 to sub-119, except for 124 achieved in the Queen Anne.

Goldikova was only workmanlike on her seasonal debut in the Prix d’Ispahan, failing to quicken away in her usual ruthless style. But Byword, a length second to her in the same race last year, was seven lengths behind this time.

VERDICT: Goldikova, a great, great mare in her own right, came up against one of the finest fillies of modern times in her two-year-old career when encountering the subsequent Diane and Arc winner, Zarkava.

Without Zarkava in the equation she would probably have scored 17 times from 19 outings. In any case her only real blip was an understandable defeat by the English Guineas winner, Makfi, having to concede a Classic colt 4lb in the Jacques Le Marois on very soft terrain at Deauville.

Canford Cliffs, who had been beaten at levels by Makfi in that Guineas, comes out as an almost identical animal to Goldikova on that form line. If continuing to progress, the years should tell, but only a fool would judge that Goldikova has finally lost her kick. Only the race next Tuesday will tell us.

DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts ATYAAB (2.30 Redcar)
BET 8pts win (nap) APRIL FOOL (3.20 Salisbury)
BET 2.7pts win and place KIWI BAY, and 1.4pts win and 1pt place NORTHERN FLING plus 1.4pts (saver) BOOM AND BUST (3.35 Redcar)
BET 11pts win ISTISHAARA (4.30 Salisbury)
BET 2pts win and 1pt place on each CAMBERLEY TWO and PICCOLETE (5.00 Salisbury)
BET 3.1pts win and place DANVILLA (5.30 Salisbury)

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DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 6 June

DAQMAN

DAQMAN’S DERBY BET GIVES THEM 20 LENGTHS START: Daqman’s Classics bad luck continued yesterday when his ‘confident’ French Derby bet, Baraan, was slowly away by 15 to 20 lengths and still finished third. It followed Carlton House’s wide run into a place at Epsom after second and third in the Oaks. Four placed in three days!
 
POWER LAY SAVES THE DAY: The day in France was partly redeemed by his fourth successful lay out of five when Allied Powers (3rd 10-1) failed to complete the Grand Prix double, a big drifter on the PMU and in the industry betting, despite the rain that arrived for him.

NOW IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ARC: It’s great year with Workforce, So You Think, and St Nicholas Abbey against the new kids on the bloc, Pour Moi, Reliable Man, Treasure Beach and Carlton House. But Daqman warns that the best of them may not meet until the Arc in France in October.

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We are about to be robbed of the best racing. The French ave ‘stolen’ both Derbys runs so far, and it now seems certain that the real racing in Europe for the rest of the season will take place in France. Trainers of both Pour Moi and Reliable Man have already publicly snubbed the King George.

Pour Moi, Saturday’s winner at Epsom, will be aimed at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and yesterday’s Chantilly hero, Reliable Man, will target the Grand Prix De Paris. And you can forget seeing yesterday’s unlucky French Derby loser, Baraan, in England. Owner the Aga Khan is sure to aim for his beloved Arc.

The results of recent King Georges seem to bear out Fabre’s view that the race comes too soon for three-year-olds: the last seven winners have been four-year-olds, with 13 of the last 15 Ascot renewals going to older horses.

But it’s all about fashion, and fashion is almost always about money: the francs and the euros have had such a pulling power that the Grand Prix and the Arc are taking over as the supreme thoroughbred tests. It has not always been so.

From 1970 to 1981 the cream of the Classic crop – Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Troy, Shergar – all came on from the Derby to win the King George, and winners included France’s own Dahlia (back to back 1973-74).

Then again, in the decade from 1985-95, nine of the 11 King George winners were three-year-olds, among them the superb Nashwan and majestic Dancing Brave.

What makes a nonsense of Fabre’s assertion is that Mill Reef (1971), Dancing Brave (1986), Lammtara (1995) and Dylan Thomas (2007) all went on from King George success to win the Arc in the same year. Three of them had won the Epsom Derby and the other one, Dancing Brave, should have done, challenging too late.

And, while Workforce and Sea The Stars have recently gone on to win the Arc from Epsom success, the reduction of the French Derby distance to 1m 2f has seen no Chantilly winners take the Arc. The last three to do so were Dalakhani (2003), Montjeu (1999) and, before that, Fabre’s own Peintre Celebre (1997). Foist with your own petit petard?

But the French plot is to insinuate the Grand Prix and the Arc as the distance tests for three-year-olds, and keep earlier Classics to 1m and 1m2f. It does not – as we’ve just seen - exclude mopping up our Derby and then taking the winner on to their late-season Longchamp show.

Treasure Beach versus Carlton House will now be the star attraction among three-year-olds in the King George. Give or take a spread plate, there seems nothing much between them.

Ireland may produce something else in the Curragh Derby, though it’s more likely that a colt we’ve already seen will go on and pick that one up.

Yet again, English eyes are on Sir Michael Stoute and the path to further riches for Workforce, though So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey could be major Ascot attractions from the older generation.

Ascot spokesman Nick Smith told the Racing Post: ‘As soon as Pour Moi crossed the line I knew I’d better delete him from the King George list.’

How many of those three-year-olds and older horses I have mentioned will then meet in the Arc we can’t be sure, but it seems inevitable that it is destined to be the greatest race on the European calendar for 2011.

DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts ROMAN DANCER (3.30 Folkestone)
BET 7.2pts win PITTODRIE STAR (7.00 Pontefract), if lose 9.4pts win KING FERDINAND (7.30 Pontefract)
BET 3pts win and place PRINCE OF SORRENTO (8.15 Windsor)
BET 7.4pts win CLOSE TO THE EDGE and 1.9pts win STAMP DUTY (8.30 Pontefract)


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DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 5 June

DAQMAN

THE DERBY OF DRAMA: Daqman logs the most dramatic Derby in years as fate played a hand right to the very last stride on Epsom Downs yesterday.
 
BETWEEN A KNOCK AND A HARD PLACE: Daqman suffered two places in the Oaks and one in the Derby without winning, his big banker, Carlton House, having taken a knock in the week and then ran wide in the race.
 
WHAT IT MEANS FOR TODAY’S FRENCH DERBY: But there’s always another day, and collateral form prompts Daqman to a confident choice in today’s French Derby at Chantilly.

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You couldn’t write the script. This year’s Derby was a day  - no, days – of drama for the world’s greatest race. It’s good that it hit the front pages this morning but very little of it was for actual racing reasons.

* When jockey Kieren Fallon switched mounts from Native Khan to Recital, a High Court judge said ‘ok’ but the Appeal Court said ‘not ok’ and he was barred from the race.

* The royal runner and hot favourite, Carlton House, who had suffered a slight ‘filling’ in a leg, and missed some work, was everybody’s favourite on the day after drifting in the betting in the week.

* In the race itself, badly drawn in unlucky 13, the Queen’s colt, legs thinly bandaged, was taken out well wide and wasted far more ground than the length or so that he lost by.

* When Carlton House challenged for the lead, a loose shoe caused him to hang off a line. Just as Pour Moi came with a rattle on his outside, Carlton House’s shoe flew off.

* When Pour Moi drew alongside Treasure Beach and Carlton House, his rider, 19-year-old Mickael Barzalona, stood up in the stirrups, prematurely celebrating victory. Only the momentum of his challenge carried him home by a head.

* Tearful and aggrieved in the royal colours, ex-champion Ryan Moore cursed the ‘rubbish’ outsiders which hampered his chances. Around 96 lengths separated the winner from the last horse to finish, with the final pair 100-1 and 150-1 at SP.

* For Andre Fabre, 22 times French champion trainer, the Derby was, at long last, ‘pour moi.’ Native Khan (J Murtagh), also hampered, was fifth. Recital (P Smullen) was sixth.

1.20 Chantilly (Prix De Royaumont) Fabre and Barzalona should be in the money in the very first race on French Derby day with Avongrove but the Godolphin filly was turned over by Ozeta over a furlong shorter at Longchamp three weeks ago.

Testosterone, the even money favourite, was third, with Campanillas fourth but that form suggests that Gorgeous Sixty and Jehannedarc are in front of them all, since they gave weight and were beaten only narrowly by Campanillas a month earlier.

Jehannedarc, by Pour Moi’s sire, Montjeu, out of a Rainbow Quest mare, should relish the extra furlong here and is the best value on Betdaq at 7.4, with Ozeta and Avongrove battling for favourtism at much shorter offers.

2.08 Chantilly (Prix Du Jockey Club, FRENCH DERBY) The majestic Dalakhani colt Baraan looks a bargain at 5.7 on Betdaq. I tipped him up for this race – and for the Arc – in recent columns and confidence is now sky high since his Prix La Force success had Pour Moi only third.

The Aga Khan is also represented by Sandagiyr for the stable of Alain De Royer Dupre which has won this race five times but the Dr Fong colt is badly drawn out wide (which hereinafter is called the Carlton House route).

Lope De Vega overcame stall 20 last year but was the exception to the rule, the four previous winners having come from stalls four, five and seven, with two, four and five winning 50% of the time this century. The strength of the low draw has been exacerbated by the reduction in trip from 1m 4f to 1m 2f and a few yards.

Since the change, the French Guineas (first Tin Horse) and the 1m 1f Prix De Guiche (first Absolutly Yes, second Nobel Winner) have become the best guides. Aidan O’Brien (Roderic O’Connor) is 0 from 19 in the race and Prairie Star’s trainer 0-10.

Bubble Chic is the benchmark for the race. Having run second to both Pour Moi (Saint Desir behind) and Recital, he is up there with the best but the Prix La Force suggests that Baraan, who comfortably beat Prairie Star and Pour Moi, is the best three-year-old colt in Europe.

Tin Horse won just as cozily in the French Guineas and was much too fresh when earlier beaten by Glaswegian. At 7.0, he is the alternative to Baraan.

2.50 Chantilly (Prix De Sandringham) After this race Aidan O’Brien may be wishing he had a daughter of his Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand by name of Sunday Nectar: she’s two from two over a mile this year.

French Guineas also-rans Esperita, Mixed Intention and Immortal Verse are down in grade, while Clive Cox’s English raider, Perfect Tribute, steps up one from her Group-3 win at Lingfield.

3.25 Chantilly (Grand Prix De Chantilly) Let’s hope Baraan has better luck than the Aga Khan’s Behkabad, who was put up in this column for the Arc last year: he was hampered, fourth, and subsequently third in the Breeders' Cup.

Michael Bell was no doubt hoping for some cut in the ground for Allied Powers, who won the race on soft last year and hasn’t much pace on a sound surface; the forecast  ‘light showers’ may not be enough. Here’s Clive Cox again but Poet, who also prefers soft, is a front-runner who is vulnerable to a finisher. There’s not much between Ley Hunt and Silver Pond, as they drop down a grade, but Behkabad – not ground dependent - ought to win it.

4.00 Chantilly (Prix Du Gros-Chene) Split Trois comes out best at the weights on Group-3 running with Inxile, Prohibit, Mar Adentro and others. William Buick has the mount on a good outsider in Bluster.

But, while most of these needs things to drop right, Inxile is ultra consistent and has the low draw that was so vital in last year’s race.
 
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.1pts win JEHANNEDARC and 1.4pts win (saver) OZETA (1.20 Chantilly)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 6.3pts win BARAAN and 5pts win TIN HORSE (2.08 Chantilly)
BET 3.8pts win SUNDAY NECTAR (2.50 Chantilly)
LAY to win 10pts ALLIED POWERS and BET 12pts win (nap) BEHKABAD (3.25 Chantilly)
BET 3.2pts win SPLIT TROIS and 1.8pts win and place BLUSTER, plus 1pt win (saver) INXILE (4.00 Chantilly)


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DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 4 June

DAQMAN

HISTORY IN THE MAKING ON A ROYAL DAY AT EPSOM: Four days after her coronation in 1953, The Queen saw her colt, Aureole, beaten into second in the Derby by Sir Gordon Richards. Now racing’s modern knight, Sir Michael Stoute, can raise the royal flag over Epsom for the first time since the king’s Minoru beat Bayardo in 1909.
 
HERE COMES THE JUDGE AND IT’S CARLTON HOUSE: As if you didn’t know, the Queen’s horse is Carlton House, subject of an injury scare in a week of Derby drama, which has had a High Court judge deciding who should ride the Irish favourite, Recital. Today your tipping judge, Daqman, has no hesitation. It’s Carlton House. Banker. 
 
‘DASH’ DERBY WARM-UP AT 20.0 BETDAQ VALUE: Jackpot-king Daqman tilts at the layers with 20.0 and 19.5 Betdaq-value bets in the 40mph Epsom Dash, a hot Derby prelude over the fast five furlongs.
 
50-1 SHOT PRIMED FOR OPENING SHOCK: And he has a fearless 52.0 start to Derby day with a golden shot in the opening handicap.
 
IT’S A LAY DOWN SAYS DAQMAN: With three lays in a row, and a record of ‘stopping’ hot favourites at the big meetings, Daqman lays into another one this afternoon.

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We are not amused. I’m still calling House though there have been times when I thought his number was up. It’s been a week for kicking the corgis but I expect to see cricket-loving Sir Michael Stoute hit his Derby six this afternoon, 30 years on from Shergar.

Carlton House, following Shahrastani, Kris Kin, North Light and Worforce, would equal the Derby record of Stoutie’s great idol, Vincent O’Brien, who deserved the same racing knighthood as the perpetuator of the Northern Dancer breed upon which so many great modern horses are founded.

Injury scares are the norm in National Hunt racing, rarer on the Flat, but the occasional knobbly knees and minor cuts are part and parcel of preparing a horse for any race. The only thing that can stop Carlton House now is a dark horse, possibly discounted from the trials, like the 20-1 winner of the Oaks yesterday.

I was second and third in that Oaks (if Dettori hadn’t dropped his hands) but, on a hot summer’s day, we failed to catch a filly called Dancing Rain, winner only of her maiden. As I say, we are not amused.

1.40 Epsom: Another damper here, Rain Mac, could upset my outsider, Great Shot, whose trainer, Sylvester Kirk, sprang a 16-1 surprise two years ago. For one that goes with the pace, he is claimed off to achieve a featherweight, with a switchback win (at Lingfield) to his name and nicely drawn in stall 5.

Only one winner of this has come from the three highest stalls, so the 52.0 offers on Betdaq look immense, based on a probability assessment of the seven remaining horses.

Boogie Shoes obviously has a great chance but has to step up two grades from a class-4 Salisbury success and favourites have a modest record in this race (two from 10).

Stall 1 won four times in nine years, including a spell of three out of four, showing the importance of a rails trap, and King Edward V11 entry Tanfeeth, though only a maiden winner, looked a class act when he won at Sandown and 8.8 this morning is tasty and better than true odds in my supposed seven-horse field.

Malthouse is a typical Mark Johnston and should make them all go but 9st 7lb looks a real steadier for a front-runner and the William Haggas’ Oaks winning stable may be more threatening with Trojan Nights.

2.10 Epsom: This time only one outsider has won in the decade. Seven horses of the eight declared today won last time out, Fulbright and He’s So Cool suggesting they are front-runners.

So what you need is something that can quicken off a fast pace. Step forward Norse Gold, impressive when he quickened up at Kempton yet with plenty of stamina in his pedigree. Nicely priced at around 4-1 or 5-1 for an eight-runner race, with almost 100% return on the place part of an each-way bet to cover your win stake.

2.40 Epsom (Diomed Stakes): Older horses (aged six to eight) have won the last five Diomeds. Six out of the last eight had already won at Epsom but I couldn’t back ‘Mac’, could you? Mac Love is 35.0 this morning.

Saeed Bin Suroor is double handed with Rio De La Plata and Vesuve, trying to halt a run of 10 consecutive losers in this race but, though Frankie Dettori had me taking a flying leap off my sofa yesterday, pace is one thing he is good at.

There is no front-runner in this and, endowed with stamina – he’s won on the soft over this trip, going right away – Rio De La Plata (5.3 as I write) is an ideal type, as he showed at York and Longchamp  last season, to lie up until the turn, and then kick on and play catch-me.

His Group-1 penalty doesn’t help but Fanunalter, St Moritz and Vesuve are only Listed level in England and Awzaan hasn’t won beyond 6f, which leaves the favourite – and my saver – Premio Loco to beat.

3.15 Epsom (Dash): This is a pinstickers’ race but the stats might help: a double-figure draw has won six of the last eight, and there’s been only one winner below stall 8 in the last decade.

Horses under the age of six have a very poor record and you need class (1 or 2 handicapper) and phenomenal speed; this is a 40 mph race.

Combine the stats and you get the David Nicholls’ trio Strike Up The Band (20.0), blinkered for the first time, Indian Trail (19.5) – both previous winners - and Fathom Five (8.8) from stalls 11, 16 and 17 respectively.

I’ll lay the favourite, Captain Dunne, off top weight and from a single-figure draw, and take the two big-odds Nicholls’ hopes, with the shorter one as the saver.

4.00 Epsom (THE DERBY): Pat Smullen now rides Derrinstown trial winner, Recital, who in my opinion needs some cut in the ground, his head held high and hanging, despite the slow pace at Leopardstown.

The French pair, Pour Moi and Vadamar, are soft-ground winners and that’s the problem of form assessment for this year’s race: will they act on the sound surface and undulations of Epsom?

Andre Fabre has had nine consecutive losers of our Derby, so I won’t be betting that Pour Moi will and his defeat of the odds-on Vadamar means excuses have to be made for the Aga Khan’s runner. I’ve always thought that the Aga had a better horse in tomorrow’s likely French Derby favourite, Baraan.

Significantly, Pour Moi has already been well beaten by Baraaan in the Prix De La Force on good ground, and the key to unlocking the Derby in recent years has been the Dante Stakes.

Jimmy Fortune tried to steal it on Pisco Sour three weeks ago but Seville came to have his measure on the rail, only to run out of gas as Carlton House surged through the gap between them, deliberately having an educational ride from Ryan Moore for a colt raced only twice before.

Nine of the last 10 winners have come from stalls between 3 and 10 but Carlton House’s 13 stall could be lucky in that he clearly settles well and quickens when asked, the mark of a great horse. Moore will have ridden the race in his head every night this week, I imagine.

Carlton House is by a World Cup winner out of a mare by the brave Bustino, who went down fighting to Grundy in the King George, one of the most famous duels in racing history.

Masked Marvel improved in the Cocked Hat to turn the tables on Auld Burns; Treasure Beach disposed of the Chester Vase field; Native Khan, though winning a moderate Craven Stakes, will now go down in history in the controversy over Kieren Fallon.

I choose Ocean War as potentially the surprise packet: the grey has improved at the right  time and comes out of the Newmarket Stakes, a race that has produced placed horses at Epsom like Presenting, Beat All and Beat Hollow. He’s 17.0 on Betdaq this morning.

DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.8pts win TANFEETH and 0.5pts win and place GREAT SHOT (1.40 Epsom)
BET 5pts win and place NORSE GOLD (2.10 Epsom)
BET 4.6pts win RIO DE LA PLATA and 2.4pts win (saver) PREMIO LOCO (2.40 Epsom)
LAY to win 10pts CAPTAIN DUNNE, plus WIN-30 JACKPOTS: 1.5pts win and place on each STRIKE UP THE BAND and INDIAN TRAIL, and 0.8pts win (saver) FATHOM FIVE (3.15 Epsom)
BANKER 13pts win CARLTON HOUSE (7pts already invested) and BEST OUTSIDER: 1.1pts win and place OCEAN WAR (4.00 Epsom)

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DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 3 June

DAQMAN

VERDICT ON THE ‘WONDER’ OAKS: Oaks Day dawns with good news for Carlton House fans who took Daqman’s Derby advice to accept Betdaq offers while the royal runner has been easy to back. Now read his verdict for the ‘wonder’ Oaks.
 
‘HERO’ DAQMAN IN FORM FOR THE CLASSICS: Daqman’s bet on I Need A Hero (WON 100-30) last night put him in profit for the day, after his selections on Wednesday all finished in the frame (including 2nd 11-1 and 3rd 10-1) and his Tuesday lays both won.

THREE LAYS UP IN A ROW: That made it three consecutive lays up: Toucan Tango (2nd 3-1), Acclamatory (unplaced 8-1) and Cara Carmela (unplaced 10-1.

JACKPOTS WINS AT 5-1 AND 7-1: His last Classic jackpot bet was Misty For Me (WON 5-1) in the 1,000 Guineas on the same day as Sole Power (WON 7-1).

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Before your very eyes! As catchphrases go, that’s an old one but it’s the one you want as a betting man: I believe you have almost certainly seen two trial performances which contain the Oaks winner this afternoon. So convinced am I that I will bet both, which is an overall investment at a short price.

One of a hot pair should also take the Coronation Cup and the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes but, at the offers available, I’m taking Betdaq value, since the unexpected so often happens at Epsom. But I will cover myself with Daq Multiples on the obvious outcomes.

1.40 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) Three-year-olds have made no impression on this race for nine years now and a five-year-old has won only once this century.

These stats suggest that last year’s winner, Antara, may now have to give way to the younger filly, Timepiece. Both are Group placed already but I’m taking a chance on the Motivator grey, Clinical.

Sir Mark Prescott will have committed a rare howler if he has mistakenly entered up Clinical in all the top Group races at 1 and 2 level: Ribblesdale, Coronation Cup, Pretty Polly et al. So she must clinically dispose of these Group-3 animals this afternoon.

At 12.0 in a field reduced to eight, as I write, she currently shows place odds – with three chances – better than the win odds (one chance) for Antara and Timepiece, which I can’t split.

2.10 Epsom Tartan Gigha goes for the hat-trick and older horses do win this. Spirit Of Sharjah, Wannabe King, Kajima and Space Station also like Epsom, though some of these – as admitted by trainer Hannon about Kajima – are looking further ahead than today, at the Royal Hunt Cup, and may need this.

It’s a race you can discuss for an hour and still not know the winner in the raveled form. That suggests they are much of a muchness so, again, something unexposed could emerge from the pack.

That would have to be Sowaylm (24.0 this morning) under a jockey whose best talents emerge at Epsom and Ascot, where positioning and pace are important, as opposed to hold-up and drive.

2.45 Epsom (Coronation Cup) The reignited St Nicholas Abbey faces his biggest test yet against the Midday, winner of five Group 1s. But those lumping on Midday, be warned that she hasn’t met horse or colt since her three-year-old days.

She’s the lady declared for the men’s singles; she’s the girl fighter in the ring with a heavyweight who so often disappoints but can land a haymaker – Racing Post Trophy, Ormonde Stakes – which has his rivals on the floor.

And, as the big two watch each other, Dandino could land a sucker punch. He improved 36lb last season  and five weeks ago took the Jockey Club Stakes, a race which has launched Millenary, Sixties Icon and Marienbard – to name but a few as they say – on their year of years.

3.25 Epsom It’s Resurge if you want course form (12120), Prompter on trainer recommendation and Dhaamer to take out of the race for John Gosden.

Gosden has become the Press’s track inspector after his Lincoln-day attack on Doncaster, so we were all ears to hear him say this morning what a good job Epsom has done with the track: good news, indeed, and also a pointer to his feelings about Dhaamer’s chances here.

4.05 Epsom (the Oaks) The Cheshire Oaks and the 1,000 Guineas were both won by horses of which you could say: the further they went, the further they were going to win.

Aidan O’Brien deliberately chose Tipperary and then Chester to see how Wonder Of Wonders performed on the bends and to get her used to them.

As the daughter of an Oaks runner-up who was sister to Galileo and half-sister to Sea The Stars, ‘Wonder’ is impeccably bred and has a hungry man in the saddle, fired further by his Derby problems.

She wasn’t impressive in the Cheshire Oaks but she was the executioner. She had to dispose of a strong pace set by Blaise Chorus with Michael Hills then trying to kid his field with a slow-slow-quick-quick-go pause for a breather and then dash for the line five lengths clear in the straight. But Wonder Of Wonder had the answer and simply did the business, professionally, going right away.

Her main danger in this spectacular Oaks, Blue Bunting, was ‘expected’ today but not in the 1,000 Guineas. In fact, two furlongs out at Newmarket as she struggled to go the pace, she looked what they said she was, an Oaks filly.

But, once stamina came into play, Blue Bunting took off and left them for dead inside the final furlong. Bred for 2m and more, yet showing that burst to get on top over a mile in Classic company, makes it very hard to fault her chance today.

The Curragh Guineas one-two, Misty For Me (11th) and Together (2nd), were behind her, and a bigger threat this afternoon may come from Havant, who was allowed to come home sixth at a steady pace and whose trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, out of form then, is capable of pulling the rabbit from the hat.

As discussed in my ABC Guide yesterday, Zain Al Boldan is another on the upgrade, and my order in would have to be Wonder Of Wonders, Blue Bunting, Havant and Zain Al Boldan.

DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.8pts win and place CLINICAL (1.40 Epsom)
BET 0.8pts win and place SOWAYLM (2.10 Epsom)
BET 1.7pts win DANDINO (2.45 Epsom)
BET 4pts win DHAAMER (3.25 Epsom)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 12pts win BLUE BUNTING and 8pts win WONDER OF WONDERS (4.05 Epsom)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pt win doubles ANTARA and TIMEPIECE with MIDDAY and ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (2.45 Epsom)

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DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 2 June

DAQMAN

LAYS-ACE DAQMAN, THE JACKPOT KING, MARKS YOUR CLASSIC CARD FROM TOMORROW: It’s the Oaks tomorrow and the Derby on Saturday, so don’t miss the man for the big occasion. His last three lays have been Toucan Tango (2nd 3-1), Acclamatory (unplaced 8-1) and Cara Carmela (unplaced 10-1), and his last Classic jackpot bet was Misty For Me (WON 5-1), the same weekend as Sole Power (WON 7-1).
 
TODAY: BALLYDOYLE UNBEATABLE IN THE OAKS, SAY THE STATS: The Ballydoyle girls have the X Factor: in Daqman’s Oaks ABC, both fillies, Misty For Me and Wonder Of Wonders, satisfy all five criteria for form and stamina, class, experience and background.
 
BUT CHANNON FILLY IS STILL DARK: But Daqman reckons there is improvement to come from two others in particular, one trained by Sir Michael Stoute and the other by Mick Channon.
 
HERE’S THE KEY TO THE OAKS ABC:
A = winner last time out (9 out of 11)
B = between two and seven previous races (10 out of 11)
C = winner or placed Fillies Mile, Musidora, Cheshire Oaks, Pretty Polly, Swettenham Triai, English/Irish 1,000 Guineas, Height of Fashion Stakes, Lingfield Oaks Trial, Rockfel (8 out of 10)
D = trained by Aidan O’Brien, Henry Cecil, Ed Dunlop (10 out of 15)
E = within stallion stamina-index parameter of 8.6 to 12.3 (11 out of 11)

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Havant: a clue! If the favourites in the Oaks market are to be turned over tomorrow, it must be by either Havant or Zain Al Boldan, and the Mick Channon filly is likely to be around twice Havant’s odds, despite a bullish bulletin from the trainer.

The clue to Havant is in her steady 1,000 Guineas progress behind Wonder Of Wonders but Zain has done her stuff, too, unbeaten and taking such a huge step forward in winning – as a 78 filly – the Lingfield Oaks Trial. That shot her official rating up to 107, a pound in front of Wonder Of Wonders.

ABCDE  Misty For Me The progress being made by the daughter of Galileo was there for all to see last August when she turned defeat by Laughing Lashes into a length victory over the same rival in the Moyglare, making the running.

On very soft ground for the fillies’ Criterium (the Marcel Boussac) at Longchamp at the Arc meeting, different tactics were employed, and she waited on the leaders. But the result was the same - just that decisive length in it – this time claiming the scalp of odds-on French hat –trick winner, Helleborine.

‘Misty’ blew up behind Blue Bunting in the Newmarket Guineas on firm ground, but she bounced back on the better surface, and with that run under her belt, beating stable-companion Together and stretching her advantage over the third filly, Laughing Lashes, by taking the Irish 1,000 at The Curragh in some style. Will she now stay the extra half-mile?

ABCDE  Wonder Of Wonders Those who saw her turned over at even money in March would have obtained very long odds against her winning the Cheshire Oaks but, after strolling home at Tipperary in the interim, she started 6-5 favourite.

It was noticeable that Aidan O’Brien was tasking ‘Wonder’ round yet more tight left-hand turns; he obviously had faith in her for Epsom. And, at Chester, that faith seemed fully justified: despite that ‘attack of the bends’, she galloped in earnest, showing the stamina evident in her breeding, as the daughter of an Oaks runner-up who was sister to Galileo and half-sister to a colt they called Sea The Stars.

ABCE    Blue Bunting The revelation of the 1,000 Guineas, surprising everyone, including jockey Frankie Dettori, who almost forgot his flying dismount and was for a time lost for words (‘surely not’ – Editor), except to say: ‘That was amazing,’ as he brought her back after she railed past a field of sharp fillies.

She’d grown so well over the winter, they simply thought the mile was too short for a half-sister to 2m and 2m 2f winner Descaro. She had scored back-to-back over a mile as a two-year-old when the UAE Guineas and Oaks was penciled in for the granddaughter of French Guineas winner and Champion Stakes runner-up, Linamix.

But ‘Blue’ had blossomed to an extent that could not be ignored. It was hold your breath time: she could be something special. All that I can add at this stage is the obvious: that we won’t know until tomorrow but, whatever happens, the Ballydoyle ‘Wonder’ will know she’s been in a race.

ABCE    Zain Al Boldan From a stable once famed for its fillies, this one is related to 1m 2f winners but got a mile as a two-year-old and stepped out of handicap company this Spring to take a Listed over 11 furlongs at Lingfield with consummate ease, beating by nearly 10 lengths a filly that had been fifth in the Rockfel.

The Lingfield race was run in a slow time but there’s nothing slow about Zain’s progress: she was hiked a massive 29lb for that little display of dominance, which actually puts her a pound in front of the official rating of Wonder Of Wonders. If the upward trajectory continues, she’s in the Oaks frame.

ABC      Beatrice Aurore There was a slow pace again for the last-chance fillies’ Classic trial, Height Of Fashion Stakes, with Beatrice Aurore completing back-to-back wins round the Goodwood turns, a mirror image of Epsom.

She couldn’t have been more impressive and John Dunlop, another trainer with a fine history where fillies are concerned, immediately nominated her for the Oaks; she had settled so well and is clearly on the upgrade.

ABC      Izzi Top John Gosden, whose pair, Highest and Imperial Pippin, were both seen off by Beatrice Aurore at Goodwood, relies instead on ‘Izzi’, winner of a normally portentous trial, the Swettenham at Newbury.

That was over 10 furlongs but, with the dam a half-sister to champion stayer Kayf Tara, she should have no trouble with the Oaks trip. She’s rated 100 which is, indeed, slightly better than Beatrice Aurore (99), the handicapper seemingly acknowledging she’s best girl in the Gosden camp.

ABE      Siren’s Song An Azamour half-sister to Group-2 winner Centennial, she won a Navan Listed in good style but the placed horses both failed in Group-3 and Listed afterwards.

BCE      Fork Handles Fillies’ Mile fourth last season and six lengths behind Wonder Of Wonders in the Cheshire Oaks, though was said not to have handled Chester. Has not won since her maiden, never a good sign.

BC        Dancing Rain Beat Highest at Newbury before that one ran second to Beatrice Aurore at Goodwood. Then got within a head of Izzi Top in the (Listed) Swettenham, running as though a stronger pace would have helped.

BDE      Eirnin Beaten in a handicap before running ninth of 10 in the Group-3 Blue Wind trial at Navan, a course she won on as a two-year-old. Likely pacemaker.

BDE      Why Another likely pacesetter for Ballydoyle, nine lengths behind Misty For Me at the Curragh and 12 behind Siren’s Song at Navan.

BE        Blaise Chorus Her Cheshire Oaks performance is largely being ignored because she tried to slip the field and Wonder Of Wonders saw, came by and conquered. But that run was a massive improvement on her juvenile form when she was runner-up to a 79-rated AW colt. She is now on 100 and with the right trainer to squeeze more from her.

BE        Havant Group-3 Oh So Sharp win on the soft last autumn had her favourite for this race in some books, largely on account of her stable. Around six lengths off Blue Bunting in the 1,000 Guineas.

But Havant’s trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, had not hit top gear at that time and the filly was not given a hard time, running on steadily through the field to finish sixth. More expected.

DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win OSMOSIA (7.50 Uttoxeter)
BET 5pts win I NEED A HERO (8.35 Wetherby)
BET 5pts win SENSE OF PRIDE (8.45 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double FIRE FIGHTER (4.40 Hamilton) and BREAKING SILENCE (7.15 Uttoxeter)

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DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 1 June

DAQMAN

BIG VALUE: DAQMAN DERBY SURPRISE: What’s the wizard of odds up to now? He promised an on-the-day banker on the Derby favourite but reckons the Betdaq market so punter friendly that he’s planning something today.

BIG VALUE: BETDAQ KEMPTON QUARTET: Daqman also finds some big value in the four Betdaq-sponsored races at Kempton Park tonight, including a 17.5 back-and-lay bet.

BIG VALUE: OAKS ABC GUIDE TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s unique stats-driven test of the Oaks runners, an ABC guide with a difference. And this time there is a really big outsider!

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Take a House point. Or two. I promised you a Derby outsider in this column, and here he is - the favourite – in that, with hindsight, the 3.8 offered for Saturday this morning will look very big after the race. Maybe even before the race.

Three things: firstly, there was no huge drift with Carlton House; his odds on offer have fluctuated as if a few (those who can play with positions) opposed to small amounts before those offers were taken; then the same again, an easing with not much liquidity, then a return to maybe the price Carlton House should be at this stage, considering the increased strength of the field, with the two French contenders having declared.

There’s been no ‘with a run’ panic. Thirdly, unlike the fixed-odds markets, the Betdaq offers on the race this morning constitute almost spot on a 100% round book. That means that you are in a punter-friendly environment.

If you don’t agree with me, or don’t want to spend on Carlton House yet – just in case it really is serious – back another fancy now, particularly if its Recital, Seville, Native Khan or Ocean War, which all had plenty of fair offers stacked up in this win market that is, after all, an exchange of opinion, trading by you at your prices.

I also promised to go banco on Carlton House, moving all in on the day. I’m now going to stake seven points (my usual to win 20) at the prevailing odds and complete my 20 points investment (the maximum stake in my bankers) on the day, when the situation is clearer.

6.20 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Median Auction Maiden Stakes) There are more words in the race head than names of horses in the race but, with tricky double-figure fields for the rest of the card, we’ll try to get a bet out of it.

All past winners had raced, three out of four having just the one run, and not until paddock time will you have some idea whether Netley Marsh is fit enough to win first time for Richard Hannon, king of the two-year-olds but lagging behind Richard Fahey this season, 28-17.

In fact, Hannon has hit a spell where he’s badly missing strike, with just one winner from his last 27 runners, 17 of them in the frame without winning.

Roger Charlton (Excavator) seems to be a much better bet in this situation: his juveniles improve no end for the first run, his current form of 101130 is appealing and Excavator ran up to a dual winner.

6.50 Kempton (betdaq.com Exchange Price Multiples Handicap) Boragh Jamal scores on two counts: his trainer is only one of two in form; and the animal is a course-and-distance winner.

But – there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there – the filly’s success here almost a year ago was due to the reapplication of blinkers, and the effects seem to have worn off, with four of six runs since in the frame without winning.

The same seems to apply to Triple Dream and the fitting of a tongue-tie: after two good efforts, he ran modestly last time and, in fact, has won only on turf.

Maybe in-form Milton Bradley can win it instead with his other runner, Colourbearer, making his handicap debut? The Betdaq market place says ‘no’: the gelding is 16.5 and, as a Pivotal, may need an easy turf surface.

It all suggests that the prize lies between the well-drawn pair, Rebecca Romero and Decider. They met on turf in April when Richard Hughes on ‘Rebecca’ allowed Decider to get away from them but ran on to finish second, giving 4lb to the winner; he gets 7lb here and she should have her revenge.

7.20 Kempton (Lay Back And Win At betdaq.com Handicap) I don’t think there’s a ‘lay and back’ in the favourite, Point North, who goes with the pace, but there is a ‘back and lay’ in Fastnet Storm at 17.5. He’s a front-runner with every chance of taking an early lead from stall 2.

Absinthe, Constant Contact, Kidlat, Sing Sweetly, Sweet Origin, are also pace horses and I can see them setting up the race for the hold-up trio of Heddwyn, Sweet Origin and Resentful Angel (can also lead). All three have raced in better class.

Heddwyn went well fresh at this time last year and ran second at Newmarket in a class-2 handicap; Resentful Angel drops from Listed company, including second over CD in April; and Sweet Origin is down a grade and drops two furlongs from his poor turf run but AW hat-trick trip and Ryan Moore takes over.

Four-year-olds have swept the board in this race and the unexposed Heddwyn seems strongly fancied early doors.

7.50 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap) ‘Apps’ stands for applications not apprentices but James Rogers could put his claim to good use with back-to-back prospects on Woolston Ferry, the well-drawn CD winner.

But it’s hard for class-6 horses to hold their form. Unless you are Foxtrot Alpha. Alpha’s beta than ever, with four win-and-place performances out of the last five. Snag is he’s never won at Kempton, where his form figures are 203003.

Grand Piano could go well in first–time visor and there were excuses on his handicap bow (saddle slipped) but claiming off him for the full amount suggests that a degree of desperation has crept in. Eager To Bow, Katmai River and Charlie Smirke all have to overcome high draws.

I’m dipping my toe in with Rapid Water, significantly reunited with Daryll Holland, the partnership just missing out in a gamble down to 2-1 favourite on turf last year when taking the lead from the start. Stall 1 for this fresh horse suggests a ‘back and lay’.
 
DAQMAN'S BETS:
BET 7pts win REBECCA ROMERO (6.50 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win HEDDWYN (7.20 Kempton)
BET 2.2pts win and place RAPID WATER (7.50 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: BET 7pts win CARLTON HOUSE (Epsom Derby, Saturday)

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DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 31 May

DAQMAN

RECITAL HAS IT ALL FOR EPSOM: Daqman’s stats-based ABC guide to the Derby reveals Recital as the only horse with everything going for him. He has the form and background, and a sire with the right credentials, where Carlton House and Casamento have not.

FALLON RIDES IN THE DERBY: It was announced this morning that Kieren Fallon takes the Recital ride, so that the top four in the market now bring together Fallon, Ryan Moore, Christophe Lemaire and Mickael Barzalona in a truly international jockey spectacular for the greatest trainers in three countries: Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O’Brien, Andre Fabre and Alain de Royer-Dupre.
 
HERE’S THE KEY TO THE DERBY ABC:
A = winner Listed or Group race latest start or placed Group 1 (85% since 1963)
B = winner last time out 15 out of 18
C = won or placed English or Irish Guineas; won Derrinstown, Dee Stakes, Dante, Sandown Classic Trial, Cocked Hat, Dewhurst, National Stakes or Racing Post Trophy
D = trained by Sir Michael Stoute, John Oxx or Aidan O’Brien (7 out of 11)
E = within stallion stamina-index parameter of 8.6 to 11.6 (10 out of 10)

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ABCDE  Recital Five-lengths winner of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a juvenile on heavy ground. Last year those who followed the soft-ground two-year-old trial form with St Nicholas Abbey from the same stable got badly burned.

But Recital has already raced satisfactorily in his second season. Beaten third in the Ballysax behind Banimpire (5th Irish 1,000 Guineas), he reversed the form with the Ballysax runner-up, Regent Street, when wining the Derrinstown Derby Trial - an excellent guide to the Epsom result - suggesting good improvement without looking spectacular.

Acting as though he needed some cut in the ground, Recital carried his head high and hung to the left, and the time was slow, so that both major trials this year – Derrinstown and Dante – do not please the clock watchers.

ABCDE Roderic O’Connor Irish 2,000 guineas winner. Goes for Sunday’s French Derby, states trainer.

ABCD  Carlton House By a World Cup winner out of a mare by the brave Bustino, who went down fighting to Grundy in the King George, one of the most famous duels in racing history.

Carlton House charged down the Newbury straight for a nine-lengths maiden win on soft last autumn, but was given a totally different, educational ride in the Dante on a sound surface, restrained then asked to quicken between horses after a slow early pace at York.

Trainer Sir Michael Stoute had claimed ‘we can hardly get him tuned up first time’, leaving - we assume - a lot to work on, as he did between the Dante and the Derby with Workforce last year.

ABCE  Masked Marvel Modest 5th in Sandown Classic Trial behind Genius Beast, and dropped back to a Listed to get off the mark in the Cocked Hat Stakes, the old Predominate, in which he turned the tables on Auld Burns by more than a stone, suggesting one has improved dramatically or the other has deteriorated at a similar rate. Unfortunately we don’t know which.

ABE    Ocean War The colt he beat in April has run second twice more, though dropped back from the Dee Stakes to another maiden. Not a good sign.

But Ocean War himself has successfully stepped up to Listed class in the Newmarket Stakes, a race that has produced placed horses at Epsom like Presenting, Beat All and Beat Hollow.

AE        Pour Moi His third to Baraan and Prairie Star in the Prix La Force trial in April would put him – through Prairie Star’s Saint-Cloud Criterium third last November – nearly eight lengths behind Recital, though collateral form between the seasons is often unreliable.

But Andre Fabre said that Pour Moi had been short of work and, sure enough, the Coolmore colt stepped up on that to beat Genius Beast into third in the Prix Hocquart on good ground, just a furlong short of the Epsom trip.

BDE    Treasure Beach Put in his place by Frankel in the Royal Lodge Stakes as a two-year-old but did well after a long absence to dispose of the Chester Vase field and join the squad of Ballydoyle probables.

CDE    Memphis Tennessee Showed potential for the Derby trip by keeping on behind Recital in the Derrinstown but rather demotes the race, since he was rated 20lb inferior to the winner and the third, Regent Street, had gone backwards, having finished in just in front of Recital in the Ballysax.

CDE    Seville Like so many Ballydoyle results, it was a case of Seville, the supposed second string, doing better than the O’Brien talking horse when he finished runner-up to Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy.

He had earlier won at Tipperary, where the likes of Hawk Wing, High Chaparral and Dylan Thomas all won their first races.
Seville had Christophe Soumillon booked for the Dante and the French ace bagged the rail as the pacemaker showed signs of wilting but the Galileo colt couldn’t find any more under pressure and, though he ran on, Carlton House came by with great purpose and commanded the finish.

CE      Genius Beast Stoutly bred on the dam’s side, going back through an Irish Oaks and Prix Vermeille winner to Sinndar, and got a mile on soft as a two-year-old.

Stepped up considerably on juvenile form by winning the Sandown Classic Trial but did not beat Auld Burns in that by as far as Masked Marvel did at Goodwood and his defeat by Praire Star in the Prix Hocquart would put him, collaterally, behind both Pour Moi (this year) and Recital (last year).

C       Casamento Along with Pathfork, who had beaten him in the National Stakes on the soft, seemed the pick of the Irish above Ballydoyle’s best, after winning the Racing Post Trophy (from Seville).

Like Pathfork, finished down the field behind Frankel in the Newmarket Guineas. The form seemed too bad to be true and hopes were resurrected when Roderic O’Connor, who was even further behind than that pair, bounced back to take the Irish 2,000 Guineas, beating the Newmarket second.

However, Casamento is a son of Shamardal, whose best result as a stallion is probably the French Derby victory of Lope de Vega (1m 2f), who didn’t get the 1m 4f of the Arc, fading a long way behind Workforce.

E        Marhaba Malyoon First foal by the sire of Derby third Rewilding out of a well related mare but stone last in Lingfield Derby Trial.

E        Nathaniel Half-length second to Frankel last season and continued to progress, his subsequent form working out really well, and he narrowly missed out on the Chester Vase earlier this month, running on well in a display of stamina which suggested the St Leger as a target.

E          Native Khan Always thereabouts, and has become a benchmark, after fourth to Casamento and third to Frankel, but his actual winning form – the Craven Stakes – doesn’t amount to much, with the second a Listed failure and the third 12 lengths last in the Dante.

E        Pisco Sour A brilliant ride by Jimmy Fortune, slowing the pace, then kicking on, saw Pisco Sour at the head of affairs for a long way in the Dante and he hung on for third as first Seville and then Carlton House went into action. Mixed American pedigree.

E         Vadamar Third to Pour Moi in the Prix Greffulhe but the race was a farce of barging and scrimmaging, leaving him with a lot to prove at Epsom. By the sire of Conduit, Duncan and Moonstone out of a mare also stamina endowed.

-        Castlemorris King Related to a handicap winner on the Flat and a long-distance hurdler, which suggests he’s no king but a chav among princes.

DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win MR DREAM MAKER (3.15 Leicester)
BET 4pts win and place ISHETOO (4.00 Redcar )
BET 6pts win UNIVERSAL (4.15 Leicester)
LAY to win 10pts TOUCAN TANGO and 6pts win HAWRIDGE KNIGHT (5.15 Leicester)
BET 4.5pts win and place DOMINO DANCER (7.15 Ffos Las)
LAY to win 10pts ACCLAMATORY (8.00 Yarmouth)

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