Wednesday 23 February
DAQMAN
EIGHT BEST BETS UP OUT OF NINE: Daqman played two bankers yesterday, knowing that, at Betdaq morning prices, he would shade a profit if only one was an ace. But, though the horse was unraced, the world and his wife knew about Ebanour (WON 2-5) so that, at SP, his sixth banker out of the last seven didn't so much as give him break-even on the day. He has also given two naps out of the last two, so his current score with best bets is eight out of nine. Moral: get on early with Betdaq.
GRAND NATIONAL EXPERIENCE: Daqman has a new slant on the Grand National today to coincide with the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. How vital is past jumping experience?
BETDAQ FOUR-IN-HAND ANALYSIS: He concentrates his daily race probe on the four Betdaq-sponsored events at Kempton Park this evening.
Ireland 10, France 1, England 1. The score in the last dozen years, if you look to Ireland for the training or breeding of the Aintree Grand National winner, is so one-sided that today's race at Fairyhouse, the Grade-2 Bobbyjo Chase, may contain this year's hero in April.
Five of the top six market leaders in the Aintree betting are Irish-bred. Two are trained in Ireland. Both run today: Oscar Time and The Midnight Club. Proceed down the betting list and the next Irish-bred is Bluesea Cracker. He's also Irish trained. He also runs today.
But here's another list, which contains a warning about the Bobbyjo Chase contingent. This list shows the number of (regulation) chases already on the CV of the last 12 National winners up to the day of the race: Monty's Pass 41, Amberleigh House 36, Mon Mome 24, Papillion 24, Bobbyjo 17, Bindaree 15, Comply Or Die 14, Red Marauder 13, Silver Birch 13, Don't Push It 12, Hedgehunter 11 and Numbersixvalverde 10.
Today's Bobbyjo runners on the Aintree-market leaderboard have the following steeplechase experience: Bluesea Cracker 12, Oscar Time 9, The Midnight Club 7. They've all got a lot of living to do.
Incidentally, those Irish-bred or trained not running in the Bobbyjo but high in market expectations for the National are: Niche Market 21 chases so far, Notre Pere 21, Ballabriggs 11, West End Rocker 11, Becauseicouldntsee 7, Synchronised 5.
5.35 Kempton (betdaq.com Every Wednesday at Kempton Park Handicap): Steve Gollings will be hoping that the heavy ground at Haydock was the reason for Local Hero's Triumph Hurdle trial flop. Steve hasn't had an AW winner this year but Kyladdie (7.6 this morning) could change all that, down in the handicap and back to his best trip here.
Wrong trip, bad draw, and different surfaces have contributed to his recent failures but also to a 5lb drop in his mark since Christmas. Estonia looks the obvious threat but her wins have both been at Lingfield.
6.05 Kempton (betdaq.com Exchange Price Multiples Handicap): I can't have the favourite, Brouhaha. His strike rate is poor (1-26 since April 2009). He's had five chances below his last winning mark. Trainer Tom Dascombe hasn't had a winner anywhere for 38 days and, in particular at Kempton, for 567 days.
Only the width of your credit card separated Round Won and Negotiation in a blanket finish when they were second and fourth over CD at the start of the month. I would fancy Lingfield Bound if he were Lingfield bound.
At this morning's offers, after the defection of Catbells and Brigadoon, I thought Stand Guard looked too big at 8.2: he's come good for three of his last four wins in February or March, recorded off marks of 84 (twice) and 80, one of them over CD a grade higher than today. Wins in his turn and this could be it off 74.
6.35 Kempton (Lay Back And Win at betdaq.com Racing Claiming Stakes): My favourite Betdaq slogan, but not my favourite kind of race. Jake The Snake comes out top on the ratings but is headed in the market by Hinton Admiral, since the pair meet on the same terms as when ‘Admiral' beat ‘Jake' a length over CD recently.
'Jake' has won handicaps here but his last two claimers have been a nightmare: I laid him when he failed to get past Caprio as that one tried to take a bite of him a yard or two from the post, and he didn't look like catching the 'Admiral' last time out. Jake was a bit of a fake that day at 6-5 on favourite.
I've had enough of them both by now, particularly at 2.47 and 2.85: I don't want to be eating my own heart for that. Euston Square at 10.5 appeals as a tilt against all expectations on two grounds: he's dropped three grades and he goes particularly well fresh (won at Leicester after five months off)
7.05 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Median Auction Maiden Stakes): Little or nothing to go on, with Mick Channon playing scrabble (Gottany O'S), John Gosden seeing things (Manifestation) and Fleeting Storm the one for the money for the second race in a row. Maybe the extra furlong will help.
THANKYOU: For Pasticchio (York, 1987) and Harland (Sandown, 2007) but particularly for Top Dream (1989, Victoria Cup), my family thanks you, Michael Jarvis. Thankyou.
DAQMAN'S BETS
BET 11pts win (nap) WOGAN (3.40 Doncaster)
BET 2.9pts win on each ACKERTAC and SEREN ROUGE, plus 1.5pts win (saver) WILD DESERT (4.10 Doncaster)
BET 3pts win KYLADDIE and 1pt win (saver) ESTONIA (5.35 Kempton)
BET 2.7pts win and 1.7pts place STAND GUARD (6.05 Kempton)
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