DAQMAN - Thursday 2 September RIMTH MORNING BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman opposed the Royal Ascot winner Memory when she was unplaced at The Curragh on Sunday. Now he thinks the Ascot runner-up could be turned over by Rimth at 5.7 Betdaq value this morning.
BEWARE THE HORSES STILL AT SCHOOL: It’s the time of year when Daqman starts looking closely at the two-year-olds for the big trials ahead and for next season’s Classics, but he warns about betting while they are still being educated.
9-2 WINNER WAS McCOY SPECIAL: Daqman was on the 9-2 Tony McCoy winner Mycenean Prince at Hereford yesterday: even in the annals of McCoy, this was special, with the horse under pressure most of the way.
Then there’s the one about the jockey who was told to ‘bury’ his mount and try to finish fifth or sixth at best in a big field, the intention being ‘next time out.’
Yer man duly obliged, failing skillfully to get a position and then seemingly struggling in the straight, ‘rowing’ along with his elbows high as a grasshopper. He looked for all the world as though he was driving his mount, and he finished seventh.
’Well,’ whispered a delighted trainer afterwards, ‘would you have beaten those that finished in front of you?’
’No problem,’ the rider replied, ‘ it’s them lot behind me I’d be worried about!’
We must have some sort of discipline about non-triers or the attraction of betting will diminish, but it’s not an easy task for the Stewards and they have to accept that there are many races where ‘education’ of the horse is allowed.
For those punters feeling blue after yesterday’s clouting 25-1 coup I’ll give you two races today where only ‘them lot behind’ are worth following.
Winners since 2003 of the two divisions of the EBF Maiden (2.40 and 3.15) at Salisbury today have won only half a dozen races since, and then only modest handicaps.
But those finishing second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the 3.15 last year alone have – in the short time space since – scored six wins and 20 places.
These Salisbury races are for two-year-old and it is understood that, though blatant ‘schooling’ is not permitted – a phrase most often used of novice hurdlers whose trainers can’t seem to afford a set of obstacles for home use! – young animals are learning their trade in the theatre of their profession, as opposed to rehearsals on the gallops.
Most punters steer clear of such big-field maidens yet Sylvestris (2.40) and Khawlah (3.15), in particular, were red hot this morning. Is the market a good guide? How do you spot the future winners from these races?
This is their time of year and I’ll be looking closely at all two-year-old events, not just with the rest of this season in mind, but with a view to next year’s Classics.
The two-year-old fillies’ race at 3.50 is a different ball game: all 10 have already won a race; they’re here not so much for education, not even for the prizemoney: they want black type for the Paddocks, for which they must be placed at this Listed or higher level.
Margot Did, Rimth, Perfect Tribute and Sweety Cecily are black-type fillies already, having been Pattern placed, with Margot Did ahead of them on form, runner-up consecutively in the Albany and the Princess Margaret at Ascot and then the Lowther Stakes at York.
The Albany winner, Memory, was turned over at the Curragh on Sunday and Margot Did has clearly had a sequence of hard races, yet punters expect precocious two-year-olds to go on and on and Margot Did is 4-5 with both bookie and exchange this morning.
She may win but she won’t have my money: as when both Memory and Glor Na Mara were both beaten at The Curragh on Sunday, I’m looking for something lightly raced to overtake them.
The stats say I am right to do so: only one winner in the last six years had more than three races on her CV, and only Vital Statistics (2006) had been placed at Group level: like Margot Did, she had run second in the Princess Margaret Stakes.
Rimth’s connections are hoping she can give Margot Did a race now, since it was only her second start when they finished second and third in the Lowther and the surface was not to the liking of a lot of horses at that meeting.
On, hopefully, a fairer terrain today, the 5.7 on Betdaq is surely value about the one progressive against the one exposed with a ‘bridesmaid’ sequence and hard races to shake off.
Yet a third type of two-year-old race, the nursery, opens the card at Epsom: punters like to look for trainers whose youngsters get their education in a couple of maidens and then come to a handicap like this at a decent price.
Since Cometh was dropped to plating class and Cathcart Castle has already tried and failed in a nursery, Sceal Nua (6.0) and All the Evil (9.4) look more attractive.
Sceal Nua is back to her winning distance of 7f after struggling at 1m on soft and All the Evil returns to turf after his further education – a run from the front –on Polytrack last time.
TODAY'S BETS:
BET 4pts win SCEAL NUA and 2.3pts win and 1.5pts place ALL THE EVIL (2.20 Epsom)
BET 4.2pts win (nap) RIMTH (3.50 Salisbury)
BET 5pts win SIMPLE JIM and 3pts win POBS TROPHY (4.50 Redcar)
BET 3.4pts win TOWY BOY (5.45 Wolverhampton)
LAY to win 10pts JANET’S PEARL (6.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.4pts win TRES FROIDE (9.20 Wolverhampton)
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