DAQMAN - Friday 10 September DAQMAN BOUNCES BACK WITH TWO BIG-RACE WINNERS: After seven winning days in a row, Daqman dipped on Wednesday but you can’t keep a good man down and he bounced straight back yesterday with two big winners at Doncaster.
BETTER VALUE ON BETDAQ: He named Eastern Aria (won 5-1) and Royal Destination (won 4-1), both for 20 points on Betdaq, showing a profit on the day of 22.92 at Betdaq exchanges but 16.22 at SP, including a double containing Wootton Bassett (won 2-1).
34.0 JACKPOT GAMBLE DOWN TO 8-1: Daqman’s jackpot bet, Everymanforhimself at 34.0 on Betdaq in the morning, was the subject of an on-course gamble from 22-1 to 8-1, but was never able to cope with the fast ground.
If, on a wet Wednesday at Doncaster, you had wanted a bet that there’d be six faster-than-average times on Thursday, I’d have offered you 60-1 or 10 points for each. Such are the vagaries of the weather and the speed in which the turf dries out at Doncaster.
Now, today, the dilemma in reverse: the Town Moor forecast of ‘30% chance of precipitation’ was increased this morning to ‘60%’; in other words, it was going to rain, and possibly put a damper on all your form-book research, based on the fast side of good.
1.35 Doncaster (Flying Childers) The quality of racing is much higher today, and it’s a cracking start, with Molecomb winner Zebedee taking on Queen Mary runner-up Meow in a colts v. fillies two-year-old classic, with the score between the sexes 9-9 in the last 18 years.
The draw is unpredictable as jockeys continue to aim for the middle ground but you’d expect them to be taken along on the low side by Meow, who should trade shorter in running than the 5.7 I see on the orange right now.
A yielding-surface winner at Naas, Ladie’s Choice deserves another crack at Meow, having got to her withers at The Curragh on fast ground last time, and the difference in offers, 5.7 and 35.0, could look crazy, come a rainy day.
Zebedee is favourite (4.1) to catch Meow but a line through Black Moth suggests that New Planet (7.8) has just as good a chance, if not better. Zebedee’s Molecomb has provided seven winners of this and New Planet’s Roses Stakes at York five, so I’ll err towards the value.
2.05 Doncaster (Mallard Stakes) Three-year-olds have a massive record in this, with six wins from the last nine renewals on Town Moor, and 16 out of 22 all told. They have a very strong team running for them today. Rain or not, there should be a fast pace, with the likes of Chiberta King and Fortuni in the field.
But any rain may make a huge difference to the outcome, with Mount Athos three times a winner on firm and Maxim Gorky a dual scorer on the soft.
The handicapper has brought Maxim Gorky and Plymouth Rock close together at the revised weights after their one-two at Newmarket.
Likewise, Mount Athos and Tactician had a terrific struggle in a key race for this, the Melrose at York, and are so heavily penalized that the fourth, Zuider Zee, has a chance of reversing the placings.
I got the impression that day that they were treading a bit carefully over the 14 furlongs for Zuider Zee (9.2), a winner only up to 12 furlongs; he was held up in rear and it was too late to use himself when Mount Athos and Technician had flown.
He’s improving all the time, will enjoy any rain, and should run much better on this track; he’s never been out of the frame going left-handed.
2.40 Doncaster (Doncaster Cup) Sir Mark Prescott, who has won this with a three-year-old, gives himself another great chance with Motrice, boosted by Eastern Aria yesterday and running here off a featherweight.
It’s a great line-up: last year’s winner, Askar Tau; the Ebor winner Dirar; and the 2009 Cesarewitch winner, Darley Sun.
The favourite, penalized Opinion Poll, has improved via Listed class to a Group-2 win at York which has thrown up the Doncaster Cup winner five times in the last eight years. Samuel is 3lb better for a half-length beating that day, but the rain may have come for Opinion Poll.
4.45 Chester (Try Betdaq For An Exchange Handicap) For a tough test of a getting-out stakes, I’m switching to Chester, where Betdaq have a close contest on a day of decent prizes (two £14,000 guaranteed, one £13,000, all not far off the value of the last two on Town Moor).
This time we can be pretty sure of the ground, with further light rain falling on good-to-soft terrain. That’s stopped me laying Rigidity.
Rigidity has won only his maiden and has been beaten twice in class-4 handicaps (albeit one of them by Dandino) but, as a son of Indian Ridge, he could improve on an easy surface; some of them do.
Dolphin Rock and Lord Raglan should enjoy it, both having won on good to soft; and note that this pair win only left-handed, with Lord Raglan already a Chester scorer.
Dolphin Rock would have had his name in the Chester records but had to be switched when challenging Cultivar over CD in July; this ultra-consistent sort (form figures 32-123122) should not have that problem this time from stall 1 and looks a cracking each-way bet at 5.6.
DAQMAN'S BETS:
BET 3pts win NEW PLANET, plus 0.5pts win and 1pt place LADIE’S CHOICE (1.35 Doncaster)
BET 2.4pts win ZUIDER ZEE and 0.5pts win (saver) MOUNT ATHOS (2.05 Doncaster)
BET 4.3pts win MOTRICE and 1.4pts win (saver) OPINION POLL (2.40 Doncaster)
BET 4pts win and place DOLPHIN ROCK (4.45 Chester)
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