DAQMAN - Wednesday 28 July
LAYS RUN NOW 100% AND 15 OUT OF 16: Daqman’s staggering run of lays continued on the opening day of Goodwood when he made it seven in a row – 15 from the last 16 – with a place lay on the big drifter Jo’Burg (unplaced 16-1) and then went all in on paper-favourite Stone Of Folca (2nd 4-1). His place lays are now six out of six this year (100%).
HOW DAQMAN CUT IT FIVE TIMES IN A ROW: Five win lays in a row have been on a knife-edge: second 9-4, third 6-4, third 7-2, third 13-8 and second 4-1. He’s playing with fire and stacking up a fortune!
JACKPOT HALF A LENGTH AWAY AT 16-1: He went for a double whammy in Jo’burg’s race, missing out on a jackpot bet by half a length (Changing The Guard 2nd 16-1). His each-way banker, Dalghar, was third.
GALWAY PLATE AND SUSSEX STAKES: It's a great day's racing today with the best of Flat and jumps in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and the Galway Plate in Ireland. Here's how Daqman sees it:
2.10 Goodwood (Goodwood Stakes) Punters will look no further than Junior – because Pipe - as their form bet and Dream Champion – because A J Martin - as their dark horse.
But neither trainer is in form: Martin hasn’t had a winner in the last fortnight, not even a place from 13 runners; Pipe’s are not running anywhere near their rating, according to the RTF test in the Racing Post.
Junior made every yard in the Ascot Stakes (2m 4f) but Ghimaar (fourth) is weighted to reverse the form; Mith Hill also has a weights turnaround with the Pipe horse but from a long way back.
The last six winners of this had at least two things in common: all had been hurdling; none was older than seven.
On those criteria, you would delete Lady Éclair, Enjoy The Moment, Excelsior Academy, Theola, Curacao, Baddam (won this two years ago), Acambo, On Terms, Backboard, Mith Hill (third two years ago), Hearthstead Dream and Relative Strength. You could also ‘lose’ Gee Dee Nen; like Dream Champion, his stable is out of form.
Markington has just hit a hat-trick, if you include a hurdle at Aintree in June, but ran badly in this race last year when on a similar high. Ambrose Princess has stayed well but in minor races. Hollins bypassed the Ascot Stakes for a crack at the Queen Alexandra – a similar trip to today’s – but looked one paced in 9th.
Mark Johnston’s confidence in Lady Eclair has pushed her to the head of the Betdaq market this morning over Junior and Ghimaar. I shall be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from those three. At 9.8, and on stable form, I prefer Ghimaar. At 8.0, Lady Éclair is a good price despite the size of the field because so few of them will get competitive.
2.45 Goodwood (Vintage Stakes) ‘The man’s a genius!’ That’s how Sir Michael Stoute describes Richard Hannon’s challenge to his champion trainer’s title. I set my anorak on totting up how many big two-year-old races Hannon has won but he hadn’t finished by the time I came to write this column!
Nor has Hannon finished, particularly with Richard Hughes riding like Lester Piggott these days, standing in the stirrups looking round at them as he did on Zebedee yesterday after a superbly judged finish.
In the way of Hannon’s duo, trying to corner the champagne here, is Crown Prosecutor. Two wins, Kieren Fallon up, and the Manton revival has taken Brian Meehan’s colt to the front of the Betdaq offers, at time of writing, and he has the better collateral form.
The horse Crown Prosecutor beat by four lengths (assessing at 2lb for a length) over 6f on today’s course ran second in the Chesham at Royal Ascot with King Torus (comes out about level with the winner) behind. Hannon hasn’t had the winner of this race for 24 years.
3.25 Goodwood (Sussex Stakes) The clash of the Titans: Canford Cliffs v Rip Van Winkle. Or can Premio Loco get involved?
He quickened up well when winning a Listed over CD last season and, since then, has proved one of those late improvers, with three Group-2 and one Group-3 win since last autumn, and is not far short of the best milers on a line through Dream Eater.
But, if Rip Van Winkle, who got within a length of Sea The Stars in the Eclipse, returns to his form of this race last year – beat Paco Boy – you’d be loco to back Premio.
However, at the difference in weights, both may succumb to Canford Cliffs, impressive winner of the St James’s Palace Stakes under another confident Richard Hughes ride. It was the same 8lb age ‘gift’ that enabled Rip Van Winkle to beat Paco Boy last year.
5.25 Galway (Galway Plate) Remember Ansar? Fifth, first, first, second, third and fourth in this Galway Plate .. yet not even put into the race until he was seven.
Could Majestic Concorde follow suit? Trained like Ansar by Dermot Weld, like Ansar he comes to the race at aged seven, like Ansar after winning at Galway over 2m on the Flat as a youngster, and he runs today with Ansar’s first winning weight.
A sub-10st-13lb mark has won nine Plates out of 10 this decade, the exception being – you guessed it – Ansar when he recorded back-to-back wins.
After his connections lost their dough when Hoo La Baloo was brought down in 2007, Paul Nicholls made a successful raid on the Ballybrit party in 2008 with Oslot.
Last year, the Ditcheat plot thickened with Roby De Cimbre made 11-2 favourite but ‘Roby’ was fourth last of the finishers. Today’s Ditcheat warhorse, Five Dreams, doesn’t appear to have the ammunition on his CV and, if his recent Market Rasen exertions haven’t affected him, I’d prefer Grand Slam hero for England glory.
But best alternative to the favourite must be Themoonandsixpence who should turn around Punchestown form with Cuan Na Grai over the extra distance. However, Bob’s Pride, fourth there, gives Dermot Weld the line.
TODAY'S BETS:
WIN-30 JACKPOT 4pts win LADY ÉCLAIR and 3.5pts win GHIMAAR (2.10 Goodwood)
BET 10pts win CROWN PROSECUTOR (2.45 Goodwood)
BANKER 20pts win CANFORD CLIFFS (3.25 Goodwood)
BET 4pts win MAJESTIC CONCORDE, 2.2pts win THEMOONANDSIXPENCE and 1.5pts win and 1pt place GRAND SLAM HERO (5.25 Galway)
Comments