DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 20 April DAQMAN  FIVE WINNING BETS IN FOUR RACES: Daqman was in red-hot form yesterday with his second hunter-chase winner at odds against in two days (Eliza Doalott won 3-1 following Bob Hall won 5-2) and four from four with his lays, two in one race. SIX LAYS UP IN A ROW: That made it a total of six successive lays with Bay Cherry (2nd 9-2 fav), Brushing(2nd 6-1), Cheers For Thea (unplaced 5-1 fav) and Ginobill (unplaced 8-1) following beaten favourites Purple Moon and Irish Heartbeat on Saturday. His record is 16 in a row. 2,000 POINTS TARGET: Daqman now needs only 73 more points from his lays – that could be just seven bankers and one other – to net 2,000 points profit and he wants just 12 more up for a grand total of 400. His current sequence is 23 out of 29, a strike rate of nearly 80%. PUNCHESTOWN RACE BY RACE: Today Daqman takes you through the stats on the first day at the Punchestown Festival and defies Flat favourites ridden by Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori with two banker lays. Pocket’s Pick looks all set to pick pockets at Folkestone (3.30) today. They fancy ‘Pick’ for favourite as the mount of Ryan Moore and because of a race on April Fools Day when he was third on the course to Love You Louis and is now 10lb better off. This may be entirely academic, since the going that day was heavy and both Pocket’s Pick (sole win at Southwell on slow surface) and Love You Louis do best with cut in the ground. The horse that split them at Folkestone (Ginobili) eight days ago was down the field for me yesterday. Running for you today, if you lay Pocket’s Pick, are Kempton track record holder Absa Lutte and two who love Folkestone, Misaro and Magical Speedfit, both winners on firm ground. Last season’s results by stall of the Folkestone 9.5f races with eight to 12 runners were: 8, 12, 8, 4, 9, 9, 8. Last Monday in the first such race of the new campaign, stalls 8, 9 and 10 were first, second and third from 11 runners. That makes today’s Frankie Dettori favourite, Shelfah (5.05), seem vulnerable from stall two. Moreover, although the filly has won on AW, she has been beaten a total of 38 lengths in three races on turf and the Michael Jarvis stable has a modest course record (8%). Looks a lay and bet. Shelfah could have turned the corner (that’s your problem with three-year-olds at this time of year) but Dettori would have to wake the filly up early to get a position: watch the race, mouse at the ready to back her to cover your lay if Frankie gets the early break. I have no such luxury from this distance: I have to put my head down and declare a lay. My nap of the day is Arctic Cosmos (4.15) at Wolverhampton. He worked a few lengths better than Power Series and Point Out in a recent gallop and caught the eye on Saturday morning working well with the highly regarded Zigato. I was very grateful for offers around 2.5 on Betdaq this morning. The race lacks depth and we could be talking about a short-priced favourite by ‘off’ time. Punchestown has two shockers for form students: the ground is firm and results in bog-like conditions for most of the winter may go out of the window; secondly, there’s no Ruby Walsh. Couldn’t they have postponed the meeting until the great man’s fit and well? 3.40 Punchestown Wedger Pardy and trainer Ted Walsh go for the hat-trick in this; for daughter Katie, who took over on ‘Wedgie’ last year, it’s the chance of a double. Enda Bolger has also won this twice and, with Nina Carberry and J. T. McNamara (Outlaw Pete) on two of Enda’s quartet, the Walsh hold on the Ladies Perpetual Cup is at risk off the stopper of 12st 3lb., with no allowance for Katie and without a prep run this time. Outlaw Pete is the young improver with vital experience of the course. 4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) Six favourites have scored in seven years but, if their run is to continue, we have to have the first English winner: Nicky Henderson’s General Miller. Can he do the Aintree-Punchestown double only 11 days apart? No previous winner of this has taken in Aintree and the last four swerved both Cheltenham and Liverpool, though Cheltenham form was upheld here before that, and is represented today by Willie Mullins’s duo, Flat Out (5th) and Blackstairmountain (10th), from the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Jockey bookings suggest that the Mullins pair will finish the other way round on today’s firm surface. Some Slam and Slippers Madden could be the surprise packet here at 17.0 this morning. Highly regarded early on after some sparkling bumper form until had one or two niggling problems and was found out by heavy ground, he will be a fresh horse – missed the festivals so far – and was back to form at Naas last time. 4.55 Punchestown Winners start 10-1 or more from below 10st 7lb and under the age of nine. But the clincher from the stats is that a novice has won nine times in the last 11 years, and Truxton King could be the crowned prince from a major stable and in his first handicap. 5.30 Punchestown (Goffs Bumper) Five-year-olds hit a five-timer in this but the trend has changed to favour four-year-olds (four wins in a row) heavily backed to take advantage of the weight concession. Look no further than top stables and top riders, all of which seems to narrow it down to Baby Whizz, Earls Quarter, Scoter Fontaine, Tinabianca and Sizing Ireland. 6.05 Punchestown (Champion Chase) Newmill (2006) and Master Minded (2009) both did the Cheltenham-Punchestown Champion Chase double. This year, the Cheltenham runner-up Forpadydeplasterer plans to go one better here and it’s Sizing Europe who’s at the double, trying to add this to his Arkle. Standing in the way is Twist Magic, who has twice bounced back from Cheltenham failure; in 2008 it was to win this race. Both Twist Magic and Forpadydeplaster have seen off Kalahari King before now, and Golden Silver may struggle on the firm ground. 6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) Jewson third and fourth, The Midnight Club and China Rock, run the risk of a clear round from Zaarito who is one of those hit-or-bust horses. Only Jadanli, Saddlers Storm and The Midnight Club are proven at the trip but these Flemensfirths and Saddlers Halls may find the ground a bit lively. I fancied Kempes to return to form under Tony McCoy but he was an abandoned dog on a raft this morning, drifting toward the weir at 15.0 on Betdaq. TODAY'S BETS LAY to win 10pts POCKET’S PICK (3.30 Folkestone) BET 5pts win (NH nap) OUTLAW PETE (3.40 Punchestown) BET 8pts win (Flat nap) ARCTIC COSMOS (4.15 Wolverhampton) BET 1pt win and place SOME SLAM (4.20 Punchestown) BET 1pt win and place TRUXTON KING (4.55 Punchestown) LAY to win 10pts SHELFAH (5.05 Folkestone) BET 4pts win SIZING EUROPE (6.05 Punchestown)
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