DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 17 March DAQMAN  14 IN A ROW FOR FESTIVAL LAYS KING DAQMAN: After six consecutive favourites bit the dust for Daqman at each of the last two Cheltenham Festivals, he continued where he left off yesterday with two more from two bets: Captain Cee Bee (unplaced 5-2) and Bensalem (fell 6-1). 9-1 CHAMPION HURDLE WINNER: After first Somersby (2nd 4-1) and then The Package (2nd 9-2) finished too late to put him in the big money, Daqman bagged the Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular (won 9-1). 35 POINTS PROFIT: Now look out today for another daring day from Daqman of jackpot tilts and fearless lays which brought him 35 points profit on the opening day. 1.30 Cheltenham (National Hunt Chase): Today’s back-and-lay starters must be front-runners Presenting Forever and Fabalu at 17.0 and 18.0 respectively on Betdaq this morning. Becauseicouldn’tsee also likes to be in the van but was down to 10.0, as a Pricewise tip. He would be a most unusual winner, since form over 3m has been essential in the past; the same applies to the rest of the Irish contingent, and I’m not looking for a horse aged nine or over on the faster surface, though I query the logic of a statement yesterday that the ground was drying out all the time, when the last two races were the slowest, and I’m loathe to leave out Abbeybraney, a Grand National entry. There was nothing between course winners Mobaasher and Petitfour on hurdles form but Mobaasher is Flat bred while course-winner Petitfour is store bred for stamina and with last year’s winning combination of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies. He’s a Supreme Leader out of a Be My Native and, at 14.0, I’d back him to go round again. Others with stamina bred into them and who are already winners at 3m are Any Currency (stable out of form), Gentle Ranger (not fancied at 56.0), Massasoit (blinkers helped him last time) and Synchronised, from Jonjo O’Neill’s yard, which is four from eight in the race. Both the official ratings and the market tell us that Massasoit and Synchronised will fight it out but the one is from a stable which hasn’t won this in 15 years and the other needs rain. 2.05 Cheltenham (Novices Hurdle): This race reminds us of absent friends: Mikael d’Haguenet won it last year, third Irish winner in the last four years. Strike out horses aged seven and eight and all non-winners last time out: that gives you Ireland’s Rite Of Passage this time, unless you again follow official ratings which have him more than a stone behind Peddlers Cross, with Reve De Sivola second best. Rite Of Passage divided Some Present and Quel Esprit behind Dunguib – left with too much to do yesterday – in last year’s Champion Bumper. All three have acquitted themselves well over hurdles, though Some Present has twice blipped at Leopardstown. Reve De Siviola holds Finians Rainbow on heavy ground but it’s anybody’s guess as to the outcome on a much sounder surface; the same applies to Summit Meeting’s form in the Irish bogs; and the problem with Peddlers Cross is whether his North-only performances will translate to the championship track. At 14.5 on the Daq, Summit Meeting is overpriced. 2.40 Cheltenham (RSA Chase): Will the next Denman stand up, please! He was clearly the best winner of this, though the last two, Albertas Run and Cooldine, may want to argue with him about it on Friday. This race has stood on its head in recent years: it used to be a poor guide to the future and produced winners at all prices up to 33-1 (2002) but, in four of the last five years, favourites or nearly so have won and largely gone on to better things. The answer to these flip-flopping stats is often better ground: animals going hell for leather through mud don’t forget the race in a hurry. Today we’re topsy-turvy again in that we need to know what will act on this decent going. There is one definite reply: Punchestowns. Sorry but I must have a top-line professional on my Cheltenham bets and I also worry about the tell-tale signs in the form-book of Long Run’s last three races: ‘not fluent’, ‘mistake’, ‘not fluent’. He’s far too short a price on what he’s done on flat tracks and my opinion on young horses has been made clear several times in this column: Long Run is only five and has to beat 60 barren years for horses of that age in this race. 3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Chase): The ‘fashion’ here doesn’t change. They win it once and they win it again: Moscow Flyer and Master Minded have recently done the double in the hoofprints of Fortria, Drinnys Double, Royal Relief, Skymas, Hilly Way, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again and Viking Flasgship. But only Badsworth Boy made it three. Time for a change? Maybe. But eight of the last 12 winners were all at least a year older than Master Minded is now - he started winning younger than any horse previously – and only Forpadydeplasterer has scored at Cheltenham before (like 70% of all past champions), though it was by the blink of an eye that he kyboshed Kalahari King in the Arkle. Kalahari King has 15 times in a row been in the first four and has the ground in his favour today. Twist Magic beat him at Sandown last April when he had had several hard races and, not for the first time, his jumping fell apart. It was in the same month that Big Zeb gave Master Minded a fright, going down at Sandown by only a head. When the verdict from such form must be, as it is today, that whatever is fittest on the day and acts best on a sound surface wins, you don’t want to be taking a short price: Twist Magic has never liked Cheltenham and we can’t be sure the Irish will act on the ground. I’ll stick with my ante-post bet. 4.00 Cheltenham (Coral Cup): Claiming riders do better in this than any other Cheltenham open race (examples: the winner in 2007 and second and third last year) and - admittedly it was a steering job - Giles Hawkins got a runaway win out of Wishfull Thinking at Exeter; the stable is the only one to have won the Coral Cup with a novice. What you want are class-3 handicappers (at least), with only two to four runs this season, campaigned with this in mind: Deutschland, Gold Award, Hampshire Express, James De Vassy, Silk Affair and Sir Harry Ormesher fit these stats and are beneath the usual weights ceiling for the race. Silk Affair (19.0 on Betdaq as I write) won last year’s Fred Winter and hopes were high of even a World Hurdle challenge but such a handy rating despite the Cheltenham win has the mare in here with no weight at all. The handicapper has not been so kind to James De Vassy (37.0), hiking him for his close fourth to Khyber Kim at Cheltenham in November but he goes well fresh, this is his target race and the handicapper would probably want to give him even more weight after yesterday’s Champion Hurdle. Of the Mullins pair, Hampshire Express stepped up to 20 furlongs easily but Deutschland was beaten. Gold Award doesn’t quite look good enough, though conditions have come right for him, and Alan King (Sir Harry Ormesher and Silk Hall) is still not firing on the big occasion. 4.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Novices’ Handicap): David Pipe has a cracking pair here: the runaway French winner Notus De La Tour is favourite but penalities are hard to carry in this and he might be glad that Hunterview missed the cut in the Imperial Cup; he debuted well in blinkers; then they were taken off. They are back on today. Sanctuaire is the big danger, if all the vibes from Ditcheat are to be believed and, at 9.6 Hunterview and 7.4 Sanctuaire, I’ll dutch to win 30 points. 5.15 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper): Martin Pipe elbowed his way in with Liberman; otherwise Ireland would have swept the board in this, and they don’t mess about: they send over their Dunguibs and their Cousin Vinneys; top class, trained to the minute. It’s also a superb back-and-lay, lay-to-back race; a 25-1 shot led until two out last year, and the year before 100-1 and 40-1 shots led before the top of the hill and on the descent. Six of the eight to finish in the first four were hold-up horses, including four at 10-1 or less (one was 3-1 favourite), seemingly in difficulties and trading much bigger than SP. So get that mouse moving fast! On His Own (66.0), Made In Time (33.0) and Dare Me (26.0) are likely to be in front at some stage of the race but, at the business end, it’s hard to see past the Irish. Most see this is a duel between Shot From The Hip and Elegant Concorde, but I’m told that Willie Mullins, who farms this race, is sweet on Day Of A Lifetime (14.0. It always is for the Irish at Chelters, isn’t it? TODAY'S BETS: WIN-40 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place PETITFOUR (1.30 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place SUMMIT MEETING and 1pt win on each FINIANS RAINBOW and RITE OF PASSAGE (2.05 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts LONG RUN and 5pts win PUNCHESTOWNS (2.40 Cheltenham) BET 4pts win KALAHARI KING (3.20 Cheltenham), 6.2 taken ante-post. WIN-100 JACKPOT BET: 5.5pts win and 2.5pts place SILK AFFAIR, and 1pt win on each JAMES DE VASSY and QUANTITAVEEASING (4.00 Cheltenham) BET 5.5pts win SANCTUAIRE and 4pts win HUNTERVIEW  (4.40 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place DAY OF A LIFETIME (5.15 Cheltenham)
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