DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 16 March DAQMAN  FESTIVAL OF DREAMS: Back the winners. Beat the favourites. Make a profit. They’re the ingredients of every punter’s dream which Betdaq tipster Daqman brings to reality year after year at the greatest meeting of them all, Cheltenham. Here’s his dream record. 12 CHELTENHAM FAVOURITES FLOORED: Cheltenham hot-pots face the Daqman curse. He has successfully laid six out of six at each of the last two festivals, all morning favourites. 83 POINTS PROFIT: At the end of the four days last year, he had made a profit of 83 points, with winners at 8-1, 7-1, 6-1 and 5-1 and a huge ante-post 6.0 on Kauto Star, hero of the Gold Cup. GO FOR JACKPOT WINNINGS WITH BETDAQ: Daqman opens the big meeting in jackpot mood and explains why you’ll get more festival fever with Betdaq: he finds each-way bets at 21.0 and 14.5 and back-and-lay offers at 32.0 and 26.0  Go Flat Out for a fast buck on your first back-and-lay of the Cheltenham Festival at a massive 26.0 on Betdaq in the opening contest of the opening day, then play cat and electronic mouse, looking to stalk this prominent racer until his running style forces offers down to single figures. Back the favourite Dunguib as he eases before the ‘off’ and is left behind by the early cavalry charge, then stalk him, too, waiting for his dash from the back to make him long odds on for a lay at the business end. While bookmaker punters can only sit and watch and suffer, you can take part, Betdaq style, in every nerve-wracking moment of the greatest racing show on earth. Make no mistake, the first race will give you that: these novices are serious animals; winners in the last two years are favourites on the same card today for the Arkle and the Champion Chase. 1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): The Irish are six out of eight here. Only Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson have intervened between three straight winning Irish favourites, notably Brave Inca, and three ‘unexpected’ Irish winners in the last three years at 40-1, 12-1 and 17-2. I have ‘unexpected’ in quotes because I’ve never known an Irish winner go unbacked; there is no dictionary definition for it. But Dunguib could ease before the ‘off’ as bookies try to ‘get’ the first day favourite, and he may drift even further with his hold-up style as the cavalry leave him behind. So you could have a choice of lay and back or back and lay. But I’ve seen this heat run like drag racing, full throttle, when it’s been impossible to come off the pace, and I’m not punning when I say that Flat Out showed himself ideal for this in his only hurdles start, running with the pace and then finding more. He made mistakes but still found some foot after them: that’s the mark of a good horse. I like him over Blackstairmountain because he’s beaten winners and is better bred for stamina though ‘Mountain’ men may argue that theirs has stopped 62 others in his last four starts and this big field will hold no terrors. Both Ronaldo Des Mottes and Yetholm have devalued Get Me Out Of Here and Oscar Whisky has been similarly let down by runners-up in his races though trainer Nicky Henderson knows the collateral form through many other novices he’s run this season, including Lush Life which beat Menorah. 2.05 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Captain Cee Bee was too old to win the opener two years ago - but he did - and he’s too old for this one: only one aged nine has won since 1957. Though he continues to defy the stats and is well enough at home on a sounder surface, he shouldn’t be expected to win a race containing improvers like Somersby, three years his junior and improving like a Gold Cup horse in the manner of, and in the same horsemen’s hands as, Best Mate. Like Best Mate, he was placed in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. He really looked to have ‘got himself together’ at Sandown in December, his absence since being the only worry. Oddly enough, the ‘Captain’ has had his reputation boosted this season by a fall: he might otherwise have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown. But again, please note, we’re talking about a comparative old-timer: Sizing Europe is eight. Woolcombe Folly has done everything wanted of him on flat tracks but, as a son of champion sire Presenting out of a stamina-inducing Strong Gale mare, hasn’t looked at home on them and should like the undulations and the gruelling uphill finish, and the better going. Sports Line is excitable and also has to prove that he acts on the ground but the same sire’s Newmill won the Champion Chase here on a sound surface; Riverside Theatre hasn’t beaten much but has jumped and traveled superbly. They are the right age to present serious threats to Somersby; again this race looks very solid, and the winner will deserve the Arkle mantle. Tony McCoy describes it as ‘the best renewal I can remember’ and says it will be a ‘close call and not much room for error’. That’s when you need the ‘overs’ (we got them with 6.6 Somersby) and when you lay the favourite and sweat it out; it’s another dynamic Daq race. 2.40 Cheltenham (William Hill Trophy): This is not a race in which to carry weight or years (look at the archive of my stats yesterday) - you need a young horse with less than 11st – and the window of opportunity has not been lost on gambling connections, David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill and Tony Martin having won fortunes from the ring with winners aged seven and eight off 10-9 to 10-12 starting 5-1 and 7-1 (twice) in the last four years. Pipe has not hidden his belief in The Package and this one certainly is the right package - aged seven and with 10st 9lb - and, in what may also with hindsight be a clever feat of training, Jonjo, too, has maneouvred one into the perfect slot: Theatrical Moment (aged seven and with 10-10) though deputy dawg McCoy – replacing the injured Noel Fehily – thinks the gelding will have to improve an awful lot. Snag for Pipe fans is that The Package is a bit of a glass horse – doesn’t stand much training – and being fresh (he hasn’t raced this year) has never won for him in the past; moreover, he’s penalized to his highest rating yet for a big handicap win in which the form hasn’t worked out. Ogee and Bensalem have similar profiles; winners in very small fields. Both look nicely plotted but, as a Turtle Island, Bensalem surely needs rain. He’s not a great jumper - in three of his last Racing Post form comments in small fields, we read: ‘not always fluent’, ‘not fluent 7th’ and ‘blundered 14th’ – and will not get a clear sight of his fences in a field this big. With 23 others nudging him, it’s a wink-wink to lay the market leader. There have been only two winning favourites in 30 years. I prefer his stablemate, Nenuphar Collonges (26.0), third in the race last year and put by for another crack at it since failing to stay in the Hennessy. Casey Jones has also been kept fresh for this, after finishing well in the RSA last year. Though Razor Royale is weighted higher than the stats allow, he has in fact the same ratings mark as Antonin (1994), who also won the Racing Post Chase on the way to winning this. He has easily the best current form in the race and is great Betdaq value at 21.0, with built-in risk factor because he’d prefer softer ground.   3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle): Only one favourite has won since the days of Istabraq’s domination, with SPs of 33-1, 22-1, 16-1 and 10-1 in the last six years. But, if it goes to form, it’s not so open this time. Last year’s 1-2-3 of Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular are back; they were separated a neck and a head, then, and I was taught that, when they’re ‘all in a heap,’ to look elsewhere, though any one of the three could have improved; they’re still young enough, and horses aged eight and nine have won four times this century. Punters don’t want to believe the form of eight-year-old Khyber Kim, who easily beat Celestial Halo, Medermit and Punjabi at Cheltenham in December, and have the last two named in front of him in the market. They also wanted to believe that there was a fluke about Go Native’s defeat of Sublimity, Solwhit, Won In The Dark and Binocular in the Fighting Fifth but he had Davy Condon looking round for dangers when he subsequently beat Starluck and Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. Go Native, with his preference for top of the ground, has everything going for him: overall form, the going and his track record, as Supreme Novices Hurdle winner last year from Medermit and Somersby. It could be a great day today for that particular race but stats anoraks will tell you that only one winner of it – Bula (1970) – has gone on to win this. Horses get beaten, and the ante-post markets swing like a Gallup Poll, but come the day and the very best are at their very best, or should be, so.. In the belief that either, or both of, Binocular and Solwhit are over their setbacks, I shall dutch them to win; they’re both trading around 8.7 this morning. Go Native is the saver. 4.00 Cheltenham (Cross Country Chase): Garde Champetre, with Nina Carberry going for a four-timer in this, is now fully exposed, having given 22lb and a beating to Sizing Australia here in December, and earlier stopped Headsontheground at a difference of 12lb. Though the handicapper has widened the gap to 24lb and 27lb respectively, it may not be enough. Double Dizzy at 32.0 is your bet and lay; he always comes running into the thick of it; and he always back-pedals, not doing so until the last fence when eight lengths behind Garde Champetre on the same tems over CD in December. Wow! That 32.0 could be nearer 1.32 in running near the final fence. Another Jewel is the one weighted to spoil the party for the favourite: he took to the banks at Punchestown; he’s a young improver, bred for stamina and with the bonus of Davy Condon on board, not to mention star Betdaq value at 14.5 this morning. 4.40 Cheltenham (Mares Hurdle): David Nicholson is remembered here: for a trainer who was allergic to horses, he didn’t do too badly at this, his local course, winning the Gold Cup, Champion Chase, Stayers’ Hurdle, Triumph, Sun Alliance Hurdle and Arkle. The ‘Duke’ never stopped trying and liked tough horses that never stopped trying. If he were here now, he would be on Easter Legend, who didn’t let the little matter of losing her front shoes stop her so nearly getting up at Ascot. She’s 21.0 as I write but could be even bigger in running as she got behind in her races under both Jack Doyle and Ruby Walsh. The ‘Duke’ would probably say to Aidan Coleman: ‘I’ve done my bit; now you do yours.’ Emma Lavelle has certainly done her bit with the horse and her yard is in great form. The Racing Post’s future ratings have Easter Legend in the short-list six, despite an official rating way below Voler La Vedette and Quevega. It’s hard to oppose Quevega, who won this last year pulling the pub-outing bus, and was then not disgraced behind Solwhit and Punjabi at Punchestown. Voler La Vedette has it to prove in this company but is being well backed this morning to do so. TODAY'S BETS WIN-100 JACKPOT BET: 4pts in and 1pt place FLAT OUT plus BET 5pts win DUNGUIB (1.30 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts CAPTAIN CEE BEE and already BET ante-post 4pts win SOMERSBY at 6.6 (2.05 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts BENSALEM and WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place RAZOR ROYALE plus 4pts win THE PACKAGE and 1pt win and place NENUPHAR COLLONGES (2.40 Cheltenham) DUTCH BET: 4pts win on each BINOCULAR and SOLWHIT and 2pts win (saver) GO NATIVE (3.20 Cheltenham) WIN-50 JACKPOT: 4pts win and 2pts place ANOTHER JEWEL and 4pts win GARDE CHAMPETERE (4.00 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT: 2pts win and 2pts place EASTER LEGEND plus 6pts win QUEVEGA (4.40 Cheltenham)
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