DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 4 March DAQMAN  NO LOSING DAYS THIS WEEK: Daqman is in top gear ready for Cheltenham, with 37 points profit in three days, two of them with three wins in a row and one break even. NAPS HAT-TRICK BID: His lays are four out of four and his naps two out of two, with another best bet at Taunton today, and three outsiders for Ludlow: 21.0, 14.5 and 10.5 at Betdaq value this morning. The lads in their hundreds come in to Ludlow for the Gold Cup today (with apologies to A. E. Housman) and they have an advantage unless those who stay at home, playing the Daq, are alive to a massive change in jumps racing. The bogs are gone; the going is good, and likely to stay that way. It’s Rakalackey weather, in fact. The old boy’s form at Ludlow is 141 and his record after long absences – usually waiting for the better ground - is 33101. It would be a fine feather in his cap if he could land the Forbra (4.00). There are plenty of dangers; Kilcrea Asla, held up at Sandown last time, led throughout the second circuit to win this race last year, and is clearly more at home on an easier track; Heathcliff is not raised for his course win last time; Carrickmines is seemingly ahead of the handicapper; and Mont Present could improve again, stepped up in trip. But I find that, with going changes, you can sometimes turn the market upside down: Rakalackey certainly has a better chance than the 21.0 on the Daq this morning, and Quattrocento was good value at 14.5. Along with Never So Blue and Kilcrea Castle, they are the only class-3 chase winners in the race. Those backing Hucking Hero or Moghaayer (2.30) in the opener are chancing the concession of a stone to two decent French imports, Zakatal (middle distance on the Flat so probably needs further than this) and Venetia William’s Santo Thomas, who has the benefit of a run and is decent each-way odds at 10.5 this morning. There can be value at the short end of the market, too: on form, Mustangsallyrally (4.20) should be odds on for the hunter chase at Taunton but I see 2.55 on my screen, praise be to the Daq. Last year’s winner of this, Nobody Tells Me (Thirty Two Red third), was not sighted behind the ‘Mustang’ in a point. From the novices’ handicap chase, you can delete the 10-year-olds (what are they doing in novice races at that age?); Sparkbridge, for whom finishing seventh is a ‘win’; Final Bid, who was a plater over hurdles and looks much worse than that over fences; and Katalak, placed only once from eight outings for a stable which hasn’t had a winner for 225 days. Keep the pencil going through Vics World, a maiden under Rules, and Local Present - tailed off last time and has never won a hurdle or a chase – and again you are seemingly left with an odds-on favourite, Holmwood Legend (3.20), who spreadeagled his field by 28, 26, and 28 lengths on the course last time out. Yet he’s 2.6 on Betdaq. Holmwood Legend’s success by so far was because he took advantage of a suicidal gallop. There should be some pace on today, with Final Bid unsettling them early, then Sir Bumble going on and probably lasting into a place, with his light weight (back and lay at 14.0). TODAY'S BETS BET 1pt win and place SANTO THOMAS (2.30 Ludlow) BET 5pts win HOLMWOOD LEGEND and 1pt win and place SIR BUMBLE (3.20 Taunton) BET 1pt win and place on each QUATTROCENTO and RAKALACKEY (4.00 Ludlow). BET 6pts win (nap) MUSTANGSALLYRALLY (4.20 Taunton)
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