DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 18 March DAQMAN  DAQMAN CLAIMS WORLD RECORD: Our top tipster Daqman continued his fabulous sequence of Cheltenham lays with Long Run (3rd 11-4) yesterday to make it, currently, six in a row. But his Festival lays sequence over three seasons must be some kind of record in the new age of exchange betting. 15 CONSECUTIVE AT THE FESTIVAL: After two on Tuesday, Long Run brought his Cheltenham Festival total to 15 straight lays up, following six at each of the last two festivals, all favourites or paper favourites. His record sequence in ordinary races is 16, so he’s anxious to match that in his festival rout of the hot-pot aces. His challenge to players is ‘bust me!’ NINE-LENGTHS WINNER: He knows which favourites to back, too. He was on the only winning market leader on Tuesday, Quevega (won 6-4), and the sole front-of-the-betting success yesterday, Sanctuaire (won 4-1), who scored by nine lengths. MASSIVE BACK-AND-LAY OFFERS TODAY: Look out today for another lay, two bankers and some massive back-and-lay odds up to 142.0. Isn’t there a sentimental ditty about ‘fighting the impossible fight’? The line keeps singing in my head as I survey the legion of favourites lost and outsiders returned; for most punters, the wrong ones in each case. Yet I’m in danger of landing some kind of world record lays sequence at Cheltenham: the reason is that punters and pundits alike follow big names blind, even when there’s good reason to be against. The Dunguibs and the Master Mindeds are never invincible but you still need a good reason to oppose them when you’re putting down hard cash: I can’t find one in Big Buck’s case; but the trainer can. The ‘quirky’ horse sometimes does the unexpected; the ‘character’ has his own way; the ‘thinker’ remembers the pain. Paul Nicholls knows there are little bits of these in Big Buck’s. Obviously a certain R. Walsh knows, too, and is ready for them. But, as a result of his being odds on, are there horses ‘too big’ in the market that deserve to be backed? Karabak? You can’t have an Alan King horse on your mind, can you? Tidal Bay? Yes, in a slow-run race: it was 30 seconds slow when he beat Time For Rupert and Katchit (Alan King) over CD in January, and ‘Rupert’, with the potential to improve at age six, could well reverse the form on good ground. I read that there’ll be cat-and-mouse tactics to get Big Buck’s ‘beat’: surely not with Fair Along and War Of Attrition (what’s he doing here?) in the race. Back and lay them at 142.0 and 48.0 respectively (at time of writing); their odds will surely crash but I can’t see either of them winning this. Layers may even be drawn into giving your mouse a glimpse of evens or odds against about the favourite as these front-runners take their attention, so the shape of the race is all good punting news. At least Karabak has McCoy up; at least he likes the ground; is lightly raced; and is the only one within a stone of Big Buck’s on official ratings. Lie Forrit has improved to get an OR alongside the rest and, at 74.0, he might get in the frame. Verdict: 1 Big Buck’s, 2 Karabak, 3 Lie Forrit. Now read on (you’re ahead of me. I still haven’t found a lay). 1.30 Cheltenham (Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase): The winner of this has never carried a big weight and you need an attacking young player not a seasoned defender of eight and over (their record is 0-29). No surprise that Nicky Henderson has one or two slotted into the right parameters, alongside Paul Nicholls and Ferdy Murphy, who have both won the race with similar sorts. In fact, we can narrow the stats down even further: the last four winners were officially rated between 133 and 135 and all five in the Jewson’s history had won only once over fences. King’s Forest 23.0 and Tanks For That 29.0 fit both stats. Tanks For That, along with Fiendish Flame (35.0), could pay back-and-lay players but there’s so much potential pace on here, including from Rivalliste, whose trainer, Paul Nicholls, should know where he is with Hey Big Spender through Inchidaly Rock. ‘Spender’ won a solid trial for this; so did Seven is My Number but they don’t want him this morning at 35.0. Dave’s Dream, Copper Beu and Linabane have good credentials and The Hollinwell is a superb jumper but the one the Irish grapevine tells me is laid out for this is China Rock, and you can expect a massive punt from the Mouse Morris contingent. 2.05 Cheltenham (Pertemps Final): Seemingly, the cunning required here is to qualify and get a sight of the others without exposing too much: so it is that only one horse has beaten the 11st 2lb barrier. But, if that makes it sound like a plot race, forget it: winners at 50-1 (twice), 20-1, 18-1, 16-1 and 14-1 all go to suggest that connections were as surprised as we were.  That’s why I am laughing little apples that I can lay a 10-3 favourite. What on earth price is that for a race like this? As the trainer, Paul Nicholls, says in the trade paper, ‘the odds look pretty skinny to me.’ Alfie Sherrin is a hard horse to train, a glass horse, and bringing him out quickly ‘could be a negative’. If 33 days is ‘quickly’, we sure have a negative about this beast: on past performance, his next race is actually due in October. Alfie Sherrin is officially ahead of the handicapper despite being hiked 12lb for his Newbury success and it could turn out that way but Nicholls has yet to win this; I’d go head down with him at a short price in a chase but not in a hurdle. And head down it must be in this case: he’s either going to win or lose badly; it’s twist or bust-me time in my lays sequence. Bust me! Back-and-lay? College Daisy (104.0), Mr. Thriller (50.0), Time Electric (20.0)? The snag with these usual front-runners is that they’ve been held up before when trying to get the trip. Previous winners (Ballyfitz, Kayf Aramis) have never been able to repeat the feat. When a jockey has the choice of rides, they usually ‘hope’ they’ve got it right. In this case, picking Ainama over Smoking Aces and Don’t Push It, Tony McCoy says he’s ‘confident’ he’s got it right. At 8.8, I’ll buy into a champion’s confidence every time. So there it is, then: Henderson v Nicholls, Walsh v McCoy, all over again. In case, she runs (no show from her yesterday), I’ll have to leave a pound on Silk Affair (35.0) but my pick of the long-shots is Rocco’s Hall (35.0). 2.40 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase): One among the trainers of Rocco’s Hall, Alfie Sherrin, and Ainama should win the Ryanair: Nicky Henderson has both Barbers Shop and Petit Robin (and an outsider, Jack The Giant) but I still couldn’t back them if either Poquelin (Nicholls) or Tranquil Sea (O’Grady) were missing from the line-up. In the four-year history of this race, all winners had won or been placed at Cheltenham in the same season: Poquelin has won twice and been second once in three Cheltenham races since October. In the middle one of the three he was beaten by Tranquil Sea, the only other in today’s field with recent course form; he was getting a couple of pound that day on soft ground, ‘always in command,’ according to the form book. But that doesn’t tell the whole story: Poquelin hated the conditions, jumped slowly and was hampered when trying to get on terms. Even with his penchant for a sound surface, he still managed to win the Boylesport here on easy going a month later. 3.20 Cheltenham (World Hurdle): Forget outsiders in this; the last 22 winners all finished in the first four on their latest start. So few horses are capable of keeping up the gallop over three miles in top company. So it is that both Baracouda and Inglis Drever won it two years running, and Big Buck’s is all set for a third double in the space of nine years. 4.00 Cheltenham (Byrne Group Plate): Some decent gambles like Idole First and Tikram but they’ve got it all wrong in the last two years, as old boy Mister McGoldrick, then Idole First’s Venetia Williams stablemate, Something Wells, have turned up at 66-1 and 33-1. Venetia has switched her good-ground horse Atouchbetweenacara from the Ryanair; he made all in the Silver Trophy over CD last April, is well fancied at 15.0 this morning and should still be there at the business end. Expect him to be taken on for the lead by Our Vic (49.0) and later by Mister McGoldrick (47.0); though Our Vic prefers it soft, he beat Kauto Star on top of the ground at Aintree a year ago; when Mister McGoldrick won this race in 2008, he took over at the top of the hill. Plenty of room for back-and-lay then, but it would still be nice to find the winner. Nicky Henderson’s won it twice this century, and fancies his mare, My Petra (Grand Annual runner-up 2008) so much that she’s been put in foal so that her chances are not spoiled by being in season. Thankyou, but no thankyou, Nicky; I was there that Grand Annual day when she failed to come up the hill, My hungry mouse will get her if she’s in the front rank over the last! Watch My Back got very close to Poquelin (see 2.40), despite being hampered on today’s course, before a runaway win in the Bet Multiples Betdaq Chase at Doncaster. He likes the ground and Ferdy Murphy is already off the mark at the festival. Sunnyhillboy failed to make the cut for the Jewson and sneaks in with a lightweight here but McCoy finds it no sweat to choose Song Of Songs, despite a doubt about the distance. Atouchbetweenacara is the value but I shall be watching my back. 4.40 Cheltenham (Kim Muir): Isn’t That Lucky! The ground has come right for all three of Jonjo O’Neill’s runners, including the progressive Nostringsattached. But don’t leave out Kia Kaha, who can’t jump out of mud or sticky ground; the drier it gets, the better his chances (30.0 as I write). You need a mature, gutsy horse for this and that’s why nine-year-olds have far and away the best record: Ballabriggs’ big weight was carried last year, and both Boychuk and Ma Yahab seem back to form. The clear choice for back-and-lay is an early offer (I got 20.0) about Hello Bud for three reasons: he loves the ground, front-runs and is the Pricewise tip, so your mouse should be able to saunter to the magic Betdaq button and lay off at leisure. He’ll probably hang on into a place, by which time he’ll be a tenth of his current odds. TODAY'S BETS WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 4pts win and 2pts place CHINA ROCK (1.30 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts ALFIE SHERRIN and EACH-WAY BANKER 5pts win and place AINAMA, plus 1pt win and place SILK AFFAIR (2.05 Cheltenham) BET 5pts win POQUELIN  and 1pt win (saver) TRANQUIL SEA ( 2.40 Cheltenham) BANKER 10pts win BIG BUCK’S (3.20 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BETS: 3pts win and 1pt place ATOUCHBETWEENACARA plus 4pts win and 2pts place WATCH MY BACK with 2pts win (saver) SUNNYHILLBOY (4.00 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BETS: 3pts win and 2pts place NOSTRINGSATTACHED and 1pt win and  place KIA KAHA, plus 1pt win and place HELLO BUD (4.40 Cheltenham) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble Ainama (2.05 Cheltenham), Poquelin (2.40 Cheltenham) and Big Buck’s (3.20 Cheltenham)
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