DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 11 March DAQMAN  SEVEN LAYS OUT OF EIGHT: Daqman’s current sequence of seven lays out of eight (10 from the last 12) is on the line today as he opposes three paper favourites across the cards at Carlisle, Southwell and Wincanton. THE WEEKEND WIZARD: Look out tomorrow for the start of the Imperial Cup meeting at Sandown on the brink of Cheltenham, with Daqman, the weekend wizard, in form last Sunday with Ballytrim (won 8-1); the weekend before when he laid Fistral Beach (fell 10-3) in the big race and napped Thebes (won 11-2); the Saturday before that when he completed 22 wins in six days; and a month ago, when he landed a 50-point jackpot with Get Me Out Of Here (won 6-1). I used to write in the papers: if you can’t win at Cheltenham, you shouldn’t be betting. These days, I might add that, if you can’t pick losers at Cheltenham, you shouldn’t be betting. I’ve had six straight lays up from favourites at the big meeting for two years running in this column - no losers, or rather, no winners – which is one hell of a warning that the so-called ‘good things’ are no way good things at all: 12 of them straight down the pan. As you know, before revealing my banker losers for 2010, I’ve been helping myself to some overs on the Daq about fancied horses favoured by the good ground: it’s 2-0 to the Daq already as bookies have been busy paring away at your potential Cheltenham profits; the two I mentioned, Somersby and Kalahari King, have been trimmed in with advertised firms to 4-1 (in four places) and 9-2 (five places). Yet the bigger offers on Betdaq remain! As I write this morning, there is still 5.9 and 6.2 respectively for the Arkle and the Champion Chase. That’s despite the Arkle being reduced to 17 runners at the declaration stage. If you are unconvinced and determined that Master Minded will win the Champion, don’t let me put you off: you can get ‘tips on’ with Betdaq (1.9, in fact, as I write) where the Nanny Goat – the Tote - is going 8-11. Oh how I miss those days, when I used to bet blind with the ‘nanny’, not knowing the return I’d get but knowing she would take up to 37% of my potential winnings before the race even started: I wonder what the take-outs are now (no I don’t). I have deliberately kept stakes very low this week, with the cards of such poor quality, but real racing should start tomorrow at the Sandown Imperial Cup meeting and it would be nice to build a little bank for the weekend.  Onceaponatime (3.55) might give us a fairy-tale start, but it will be very tight, since he has the edge at the weights. His problem is that he doesn’t know how to win at Southwell. The Racing Post Spotlight calls him ultra-reliable; I call him an ultra-reliable loser.  His Southwell form figures are 322233, and he’s won only once anywhere in 14 outings. Before that, he went 17 straight races without success. Bel Cantor, who has beaten him twice recently, is an eager front-runner and, at 5.2, is a bet; if he goes haring off in front, he springs my trap, which is to try to lay him short and get my money back for the win stake and for the Onceuponatime lay (well, I told you this was a fairy tale). Bow Badger (5.20) is another likely to run well but unlikely to win. The way of these NH Flat races is that certain stables farm them, and they put one straight in to win, like Eastern Supreme’s stable did, or like the five bumper winners out of six which George Swinbank has already sent to the Carlisle meeting. There’s a huge buzz for his Eager To Act this morning. Bow Badger has had three goes, including when in receipt of 12lb last time and apart from Eager To Act, there’s a McCain newcomer well fancied and 15 others trying to stop him. At Wincanton, best backed this morning as the ground dries out still further is Loita Hills (5.10) in a cracking contest for the hunter-chase, with last year’s local winner, Who Else Knew – seems to prefer it soft – and the veterans I Hear Thunder and Alphabetical taking him on. Though he’s a thinker, and can be a tail-spinner, Loita Hills is consistent enough but much, much better before the brain engages and he remembers what he’s there for; so first time out is a must, before he starts his windmill. In the last three years, his form figures after a break are 131. Tony McCoy is at the meeting for just one ride, a stable companion of Loita Hills called Cappagh (3.35); there the similiarities end so far, with Cappagh yet to reach the frame. But better is expected on a sounder surface: 13.0 has plenty of built-in risk. I’m laying Ciceron, this morning’s odds-on market leader in Cappagh’s race. No favourite has scored in it this century; Ciceron has a 7lb penalty; he’s a novice stepping up into handicap company; being by Pivotal, the drying ground could be against him; and horses coming out again to beat the handicapper – he’s officially 8lb well in – are often turned over because the race comes too quickly; in this case, his win was only eight days ago. They don’t take any prisoners over the Wincanton fences and the novices’ chase (4.05) could be a real spectacle with Richard’s Sundance, Gullible Gordon and Blazing Bailey all front-runners in their time; there’s about 1.5 of a difference between them, points wise in offers on the Daq but Gullible Gordon has a bigger edge in the ratings. Blazing Bailey doesn’t have to lead and, if I were Robert Thornton, I would let the others cut their own throats; he was a high-class hurdler and has the speed to catch them on this ground. TODAY'S BETS  LAY to win 3pts CICERON and BET 1pt win and 2pts place CAPPAGH (3.35 Wincanton) LAY to win 3pts ONCEAPONATIME and BET 3pts win BEL CANTOR (3.55 Southwell) BET 4pts win (nap) BLAZING BAILEY (4.05 Wincanton). BET 3pts win and place LOITA HILLS (5.10 Wincanton) LAY to win 3pts BOW BADGER and BET 3pts win EAGER TO ACT (5.20 Carlisle)
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More