DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 7 March DAQMAN  BAD DAY AT THE OFFICE: Daqman’s bets – mainly a sprinkling each way – suggested a difficult Saturday and so it was. But his sequences show a consistency in his main bets, naps and lays. HERE’S HOW THEY’VE RUN: His naps strike rate is currently three out of five (seven from eleven), with their recent placings, latest results last, as follows: 11101011313. His recent lays (W-win money and L-lose) have been WWWLWWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWLW. Horses with the speed to win a chase at 20 furlongs have had the thumbs down in the Grand National ever since the myth that they could win it was started 40 years ago by a horse called Gay Trip. And trainer Paul Nicholls has had only two placed without winning from 43 Aintree runners. Yet his Big Fella Thanks is now National favourite with only about a month to go. As big as the debate, Kauto Star v. Denman, is the question of whether yesterday’s win makes the ‘Big Fella’  - sixth in the National last year – an exceptional horse or just another Nicholls pie in the Liverpool sky. Ditcheat doesn’t seem to have much tactical awareness about the race as past results and yesterday’s run – that was only a ‘wake up’ call? – suggest, but he does have a trump card to play which will put his ace near the top of the pack. If he keeps Taranis in his National team then, even though all the other top-rated horses drop out, Big Fella Thanks will not have to carry a weight above that prohibitive 11st barrier. Also in his favour is that the new favourite is still a young horse, and the year since the 2009 run should have improved him. What he doesn’t want is rain. While England struggles with the weather again today, there’s another mini-National, the Leinster National at Naas. It’s only 3m, and it’s only mud – not a bog – in Ireland right now but it’s another Aintree test, nevertheless. This time Willie Mullins is the trainer in focus: he had no say in whether the weights for this trial went up but Rare Bob standing his ground leaves his Equus Maximus getting 11lb and Ballytrim, the Ulster National winner, with an absolute easy, off a featherweight 23lb below the favourite. Unfortunately, nothing has been easy for Ballytrim this season and the stable reports him still below par in his latest gallop: to hope he will bounce back here off this peach of a chance, we need a price that  builds in some of that ‘hope’, which in betting and insurance parlance is called ‘risk.’ At 10.0, and with only eight runners, I’ll take the risk. There’s no doubt Rare Bob is a formidable opponent, despite his weight, and Pricewise claims that Dessie Hughes thinks of him – Rare Bob not Tom Segal – as a Gold Cup candidate. Well, he’ll need to be a Kauto Star not a Big Fella Thanks to give the weight away if Ballytrim bounces back. Rare Bob has to bounce back, too: he’s been seen only once since last April, when he trailed in 43 lengths last at Fairyhouse in January. Casey Supreme seldom runs a bad race and looked the Troytown winner at one stage; with weight worries and fitness concern about the others, his 7.6 also looked an each-way investment. If you think Rare Bob really is up to this, then you should be taking 205.0 with Betdaq for the Ryanair, though my view is a) that he’ll only manage a place today and b) he’ll run in the Byrne Group Plate, two grades lower, on the same day at Cheltenham. We shall see. It’s a measure of the racing at Sedgefield that six paper favourites or co-favourites have failed to win under Rules in their last six starts. One or more of them is sure to get stuffed. I wouldn’t want to oppose the Reveley pair, Eyre Square (2.20), who started his fencing career well enough, or Club Class (3.20), well enough placed for his handicap debut. Cosmetic (4.20) is also first time in a handicap, so the one I’ll try and put the mockers on is Lerida (3.50). Lerida ran well enough last time out over CD but has never put two races together in his life; it will be a surprise if he can hold his form, even in this company, particularly with his stable now 369 days without a winner from 33 attempts. Most of the other runners are as bad, if not worse, and most of the other stable form is as poor, if not poorer; but every dog has his day and Prince Tam has improved with each outing over fences; cheekpieces and Phil Kinsella should make the difference. TODAY'S BETS LAY to win 3pts LERIDA and 3pts win PRINCE TAM (3.50 Sedgefield) BET 2pts win and place BALLYTRIM and 1pt win and place CASEY SUPREME (4.00 Naas) BET 4pts win (nap) ANGUS HOUSE (4.30 Naas)
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