DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 6 March DAQMAN  WHAT A WEEK! 53 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman landed both his nap and his lay yesterday for the second time in four days to go 53 points up on the week 11-2 WINNING NAP: His best bet, Salut Flo (won 11-2), was his third winning odds-against nap from four in the week, following Lucky Redback (won 5-2) and Awesome George (won 15-8). The other one was third. FIVE LAYS UP OUT OF FIVE: My Moment (tailed off, 2-1 fav) was his fifth consecutive winning lay, his eighth from the last nine for an 89% strike rate. There are two more today. GRAND NATIONAL TRIALISTS: There are 19 Aintree hopes on show, more Cheltenham clues and two ‘gems’ for the future, unearthed by Daqman across five cards of jumping today. Am I dreaming or have the bookies turned honest! An ad in the trade paper today admits ‘best price NOT guaranteed’ and the Pricewise Grimthorpe Chase odds are qualified by the rider: bookmakers guarantee to lay their prices ‘for at least a short period’ this morning. So the old saying should now be: How SHORT is a piece of string! I remember those frustrating pre-Betdaq days of trying to dial the bookie with the best odds, of say 11-1, only to hear – literally a minute or two after opening time – ‘sorry, sir, the horse is now 8-1; there has been a huge volume of calls on this one.” I chose 11-1 for my example because that was the best quote for today’s Pricewise tip, Iris De Balme, for the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. The first safe bet of the day was that there would be ‘a huge volume of calls’ on that one. Scottish National winner and Sandown Gold Cup fourth, ‘Iris’ is one of 19 horses on trial today for the Grand National proper at Aintree, seven of them running in the Grimthorpe itself. He was 11 times placed from 14 starts but won only twice (3m 7f and 4m) in his heyday up to the 2008; even if he’s back at his best after injury following a quiet run over hurdles recently, the implication from his form is that the most likely outcome today is a place. It will be a ‘short’ and fastish 26 furlongs in the Grimthorpe, since there are pacesetters in the field and the going is good; it’s Possol weather, and his 3m form is more appealing for this today than that of marathon types; in any case, at seven, he should be improving. Air Force One, Daldini and (maybe) Gidam Gidam are the likely van runners and the problem for stayers like Iris De Balme, Eider Chase winner Merigo and Haydock Gold Cup one-two Rambling Minster and Coe is that they will get outpaced and there won’t be time for their ‘second wind.’ Previous winners of this had won no further than 3m to 3m 2f. Possol, Wogan and Millside all won over 3m at Doncaster in December or January; Cloudy Lane has won the Grimthorpe before, and Gidam Gidam was fourth in 2008 and second last year (up 8lb). Air Force One is in the same boat as Iris De Balme, bidding to revive a classy CV; the one-time top novice loves good ground and it was a real bonus for connections when the handicapper strangely dropped him 7lb for a comeback run. Along with Possol, the most likely shortener for the National after today’s racing is Can’t Buy Time, freshened up after a career-best performance at Cheltenham and one of seven rides for the champion of champions, A.P. McCoy in the Greatwood at Newbury (3.10). As with Wogan in the Grimthorpe, Nicky Henderson has managed to creep in to the bottom of the handicap with Au Courant but, in drying weather, I again prefer a classy type from higher up the handicap. Wogan and Au Courant may run well (they might win!) but I can’t have 10-year-old novice-only chase winners in races like these. Big Fella Thanks will do his Aintree chance no harm at all if he fences round here at a sharp 2m 4f but, on the day, Paul Nicholls is likely to do better with Pasco (Newbury form figures 21112). The same drop back in trip and good ground are problems for Our Vic; Battle Cry is a ‘bridesmaid’ and Panjo Bere has come back to form only to be hit by the handicapper. I go to press too late to lay for you two huge drifters because of the change of going, lonely dogs on a raft in the opener (2.05): paper favourite Rock ‘N’ Roller (now 12.0 as I write) and Tail of The Bank (a massive 17.0). The money was for Henry King and Acknowledgement. So my lay of the day in the South is at Kempton: paper favourite Caspar Of Tarsus (2.50). Only five finished when he won in first-time visors on his latest start, and three of the first four favourites pulled up. He has 15 opponents here, is up in weight and the aids may not work a second time. Acosta (28.0) was a game hurdles winner on good ground at a tough venue and starts chasing off a lower mark in modest company. At Kelso, the value bet is surely Will Be Done (3.35) at 6.6 this morning, with Cloudy Lane likely to go to Doncaster and Sa Suffit a chancy jumper who beat a firm-ground horse on the soft last time. The Press was hailing this one as a champion until his run came to an end; after a break and a livener over hurdles, he could make all here. At such opening odds, you should be able to snitch a margin for profit between the bet and a lay in running; or back Sa Suffit to beat him if the mouse is quick, should James Ewart’s gelding start to close. I’m laying paper favourite Raysrock (1.55), giving lumps of weight to the improving seven-year-old front-runner Duke Of Malfi (holds Toulouse Express on Hexham form), with Tom Scudamore making the journey North for the one mount. Nap. On a difficult day, I’m looking for gems hidden in the mass of runners, and I think there are two in one race: Hurricane Milly (4.00 Doncaster) might be good enough to beat Cucumber Run at a difference of 11lb. ’Milly’, out of a Strong Gale mare, is a half-sister to Darkness, while Cucumber Run is a half-brother to Somersby. So, with the future in mind, this could be more informative than watching all those Grand National trialists. TODAY'S BETS LAY to win 4pts RAYSROCK and BET 4pts win (nap) DUKE OF MALFI (1.55 Kelso) BET 2pts win on each ACKNOWLEDGEMENT and HENRY KING (2.05 Newbury) LAY to win 2pts CASPAR OF TARSUS and BET 1pt win and place ACOSTA (2.50 Kempton) BET 3pts win CAN’T BUY TIME and 1pt win (saver) PASCO (3.10 Newbury) BET 2pts win and place POSSOL and 1pt win and place AIR FORCE ONE (3.25 Doncaster) BET 3pts win HURRICANE MILLY (4.00 Doncaster) BET 1pt win and place FOLK TUNE (5.10 Doncaster)
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