DAQMAN on SATURDAY

Saturday 13 March DAQMAN  DAQMAN STRIKES GOLD AGAIN AND AGAIN: His jackpot bets and bankers are back today and it was Daqman all the way yesterday as he milked the Betdaq market in the Grand Military Gold Cup at Sandown, accurately predicting each stage of the race. HE NAMES THE ONE-TWO: He nominated long-time leader Oakfield Legend and eventual runner-up River Indus for back-and-lays, and charged to his account each-way bets on Scots Dragoon (won 3-1) and River Indus (2nd 22-1). FIVE WINNING BETS FROM THREE RACES: He had earlier napped Nafaath (won evens) at Ayr, and later pulled off a double whammy at Wincanton, laying Mon Chevalier (2nd 7-2) and naming the winner, Wise Men Say (won 3-1), to land five winning bets in three races, not counting the back-and-lay advice. BETDAQ BACK-AND-LAY BETS AT 22.0, 25.0, 26.0 and 40.0: The race he’s chosen today is the opener at Sandown where three front-runners at 22.0, 25.0 and 26.0 all look sure to contract in price during the race and the ‘good thing’ on form is 11.0. Then he finds a 40.0 back-and-lay in the big race plus a 22.0 which you will be wise to assume will contract in price. 2.00 Sandown (Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final) There’s an old after-dinner racing joke about the jockey told to give a horse a ‘sighter’ On finishing fifth, he was asked ‘Well, would you beat that lot in front next time?’ to which he replied ‘Yeh but I’d be worried about them boggers behind!’ This novices’ final is known for its quiet rides and euphemisms in the form, such as ‘ unexposed’, ‘not had the luck in running’ and ‘behind early; ran on well.’ I can’t examine past results – or I might be accused of pointing the finger – but let’s just say that no favourites have won in the last eight years.  And, as Paul Nicholls says, while being bullish in the Racing Post about Red Harbour: “ Doubtless a load of other trainers think they’ve got their horses well handicapped.’ What is transparent in the stats is that six year-olds have taken eight out of 10 and topweights have scored only once; today’s – Alvarado – is ‘a bit of a monkey’, according to his trainer, so we can also suppose that the carrot (or the banana) is being replaced by the stick. They are claiming off the paper favourite Ranjobaie – stablemate Lark’s Lad (11.0) looks ‘a good thing’ at the weights – and off three at the bottom, and claimers don’t win a race like this.  I’m still left with eight possibilities but my first position on this race was easy: Empty Sky at 25.0 this morning was a gift of a bet to be laid in running. Not only does he invariably make the pace, but the trainer says he will. Emperor Concerto (26.0) and Fabulous Fred (22.0) are likely to go with him. You can surely lay them all off during the race. Trying to pick the winner is about guessing which ones will adapt to the better ground: Nicky Gifford (Ballybach) scored in this with a similar sort in Killaghy Castle and openly admits that this race ‘has been the target for a while’; Jonjo O’Neill (Sonowyouno) won with no less than Albertas Run. A son of Silver Patriarch, the sire of Stoney’s Treasure, won a Military Gold Cup for us on this ground yesterday. But Alan King’s other runner, Swansbrook  (“this has always been the target”), who beat Red Harbour at Ascot, was 18 lengths behind Larks Lad (‘this has always been the objective’) in November and ‘Lad’ can turn around Haydock positions with Fabulous Fred at the revised weights and on the sounder surface. 2.30 Sandown: They’re betting 6-1 the field this morning but seven of the last nine winners of this were 4-1 or shorter: in other words, watch the market; look for a new favourite or nearly so. Bowleaze (2008) and Fresh Air And Fun (2009) have won it in the last two years; the one is 11 years old now and the other is out of form but the trainer, gentleman Jonjo – he likes to smile the other trainers in the back (a la Clive Brittain) - did the same trick with Teeming Rain last week, bringing him back for a repeat despite the form figures of a loser. But where’s McCoy, you ask? In the sauna, I answer. 3.05 Sandown (Imperial Cup) The champion is in the sauna and ‘wondering why’ he agreed to sweat down to 10st. 3lb. for Qaspal; that’s what he says in his Telegraph column. Maybe we should remind him that he won in 2007 on Gaspara off 10-5 and said the very same thing (he was heavier at that time and said he would never again try to get down so low). One way to deal with a field of 24 runners is to divide it into four races of six; then your pick of each race becomes a short-list. I had to pick Qaspal among the bottomweights, since Dani’s Girl looks to have been ‘done’ by the handicapper, at least in relation to Pascha Bere. Press The Button should again hold Aather on Kempton form       but Numide is 12lb lower than when he was unplaced in the race last year. In the next group up, Stradbrook is like Numide: he needs softer ground. Front-runner Pascha Bere is a back-and-lay at 40.0, as he’s always well placed in his races; but the faster the pace the more it favours his old rival Oldrik. Pistolet Noir is entitled to improve at age four but has done nothing yet to warrant a bet in a race like this. Of the top half-dozen, they’re claiming off Katies Tutor and the two nine-year-olds are out for me; that leaves Pepe Simo, who is 10lb worse in with Qaspal on an earlier encounter; Caravel, who is up in grade but is a dark horse in the South; and El Dancer, who has his ground and has every chance on his Greatwood run and defeat of American Trilogy and Somersby at the last Grand National meeting. Conclusion: I find this a pretty ordinary field, with El Dancer, Pepe Simo and Qaspal the stand-outs, either on form or at the weights.   Seven of the last nine winners of this have been novices and so the real short-list may be stablemates Pepe Simo (two Cheltenham engagements), Pistolet Noir (withdrawn from Cheltenham), Press The Button, Qaspal, tilt and Tocca Ferro.  Qaspal and Pepe Simo are common to both my lists, so are my bets. My second back-and-lay after Paacha bere is Cheshire Prince, simply be cause – as a Pricewise selection – the 22.0 will shrink, with punters desperately looking for an outsider. But stats of five favourites out of eight (five out of six on good ground) suggest that that is the wrong approach. 3.25 Wolverhampton (Lincoln Trial) This is a better betting race for horses between 7-1 and 16-1 (seven wins from nine) but which one?  Fanunalter has Ryan Moore back on British soil, and David Barron has two good goes at this with Flipando and Spinning, but surely the 7.4 Tartan Gigha is red-hot value for a Cambridgeshire runner-up who has not been disgraced in, and is fit from, Meydan. 3.40 Sandown (Mares’ Bumper Final) It looks like a race for the pin or for pinheads but, while favourites have been beaten, the shrewdies have got it right with some decent bets noted over the years between 5-1 and 17-2 (four wins out of five) all for horses with previous wins, all with just one or two runs. Chicklemix (12.0) fits the stats and is highly regarded. TODAY'S BETS WIN-40 JACKPOT BET 4pts win and 2pts place LARKS LAD (2.00 Sandown) WIN-40 JACKPOT: 5pts win and 2pts place PEPE SIMO and 4pts win QASPAL (3.05 Sandown) EACH-WAY BANKER: 5pts win and place TARTAN GIGHA (3.25 Wolverhampton)  BET 1pt win and place CHICKLEMIX and 2pts win (saver) LIFESTYLE (3.40 Sandown)
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