DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 19 March DAQMAN  DAQMAN ON TOP OF THE WORLD: Daqman used Betdaq facilities to bag a bundle of better-value bets in the World Hurdle yesterday. He warned to wait for a better price for his maximum-stakes banker Big Buck’s (won 5-6 SP) and had huge back-and-lay success as he correctly nominated pacesetters Fair Along and War Of Attrition at 142.0 and 48.0 before offers tumbled to a fraction of those odds in running. Today he takes 215.0 and 74.0 offers. SENSATIONAL 16 LAYS IN A ROW: Meanwhile his amazing world-record lays sequence marches on: he made it 16 consecutive losing favourites at Cheltenham with his fourth maximum-stakes lay this week, flooring Alfie Sherrin (only 12th at 11-4). SEVEN IN A ROW IN 12 DAYS: That made it seven in a row in the last 12 days, and four out of four at this year’s festival following six at each big Cheltenham meeting in 2008 and 2009. GOLD CUP SHOCK: Daqman turns up some simple stats on the Gold Cup which suggest that not even Arkle or Golden Miller could win the race today. As Oscar Wilde might have said, for Paul Nicholls to have one champion may be regarded as misfortune but to allow him two may be deemed carelessness. It’s been Denman or Kauto Star for three years now. Nothing else in any other back yard? Where’s the opposition? Nicholls so dominates this year that he’s making up the opposition himself! As well as the front two, he runs My Will and Tricky Trickster, and one of his cast-offs, Mr Pointment, makes five Ditcheat babes in a field of 11. But past results also deliver a warning: only one of his contingent, Tricky Trickster, is of Gold Cup winning age, since only one horse over the age of nine has won in the last 16 runnings of the race since 1992. Not even Arkle, not Golden Miller, and not in modern times Best Mate of the great gold-plated heroes had the lungs left to win this at a double-figure age. Winning gold is a young man’s game but is there a young horse worth the shilling? 1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle): Not normally a race for the Irish but Edward O’Grady remains their most successful trainer in the 40 years since Tom Dreaper and, before him (over jumps), Vincent O’Brien. And Edward’s Alaivan is the class horse of this race. His sire, Kalanisi, and his grandsire, Ela-Mana-Mou (daddy of the great Double Trigger) both loved the going on top, yet Alaivan has slogged through the Irish bogs to win hurdles on heavy ground, including a Grade 2. Actually, I’ll withdraw that word ‘slogged’: Alaivan, who won the Gowran Park Classic Trial on the Flat for John Oxx last year, scored over hurdles on the soft at Fairyhouse by 17 lengths. His win was no slog but ‘soon led, clear before the last, easily.’ The ‘soon led’ is the downside (though back-and-lay punters will disagree); he’s settled down a bit but, in his previous race, took an even keener hold and had nothing left when headed by Carlito Brigante. Again I’ve got the wrong word: ‘headed’ hardly allows for the 11 lengths ‘Carlito’ won by. And the horse ‘Carlito’ beat easily at Musselburgh in November, name of Orsippus, finished third in the Fred Winter on Wednesday behind Sanctuaire. Some 18 lengths behind the winner was Loch Long, who was 17 lengths in arrear of Alaivan at Fairyhouse. Not much in it if that worked out, is there. The ‘but’ with ‘Carlito’ is that he’s bred to win a Guineas (by Haafd out of a Green Desert mare), so class yes, but the stamina to get up the Cheltenham hill? I’d rather be on Alaivan, wouldn’t you. Secant Star has tried two ways of running, making all last time – which probably did him a world of good – and previously coming through to lead in the straight at Leopardstown, only to fluff his lines when clear at the last. Incidentally, Loch Long was nine lengths behind the lucky winner, Sword Fish. Tenuous collateral form but helps firm my resolve. Secant Star (11.5), Westlin Winds (13.0) and Blazing Buck (215.0) are the likely  front-runners and I can’t resist the chance that Lee Edwards’ ride will blaze a trail but it’s back-and-lay for small bucks in this one (as opposed to big bucks in the big ‘un yesterday). Nicholls and Henderson, Triumph winners for the last two years, have high hopes of Advisor (has worked well with Celestial Halo) and Soldatino, pick of a host of other possibles and top of the official ratings. But the winner of this is always very special – Celestial Halo, Detroit City, Katchit, Zaynar  - and Alaivan would not be out of place in their ranks. 2.05 Cheltenham (County Hurdle): It’s a very good horse indeed that can carry more than 11st to victory here, like a Rooster Booster (2002), and Tony McCoy has the added problem that the French champion hurdler, Rock Noir (13.5), is normally a front-runner, though he will expect a lead from Marodima (a massive back and lay at 74.0). Galway Hurdle winner Bahrain Storm (44.0) will love the return to top of the ground and is a ridiculous price: there’s real quality at the top of this handicap. Four of the last six winners have been just on the cusp - 10st 10lb to 11st. - so note that Paul Nicholls (three wins in six years) has got it right with Tito Bustillo, and four of the last six scorers  have been five-year-olds. ’Tito’ has a bit to find with Henderson’s Bellvano (holds Inventor) but is better off at the weights and both trainers will have been delighted to see Menorah boost the Bellvano form earlier in the week. Puyol, who holds Thousand Stars (may improve on today’s surface), has run Dunguib to four or five lengths, but he in turn may not confirm Pierse Hurdle form with Tawaagg on good ground. Dee Ee Williams (30.0) gave Binocular something to think about at Sandown in February and is back on the good ground he loves for a stable which ran a place in the Coral Cup. It’s all a question of whether the blinkers work a second time at his optimum trip. He’s a back and lay as a Pricewise tip. 2.40 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett): Half this field (literally) is untried beyond 2m 4f but the serious horses – placed in Graded races – have all proved their stamina: Enterprise Park, Quel Esprit, Restless Harry, Tell Massini, Wayward Prince and Premier Victory. I shall add The Hurl to the short-list, as Mouse Morris did everything right with China Rock yesterday; he just didn’t get the trip. Premier Victory seems sure to be in the front rank most of the way and, at 31.0, is my back-and-lay bet, along with The Hurl (41.0). I imagine McCoy will try to restrain The Hurl’s enthusiasm somewhat but seeing the champion jockey among the leaders should draw plenty of bets. I shall charge The Hurl to the account as an each-way bet, with Tell Massini and Enterprise Park as my main selections. 3.20 Cheltenham (The Gold Cup): I asked where are the young bloods and the only possible answer can be Cooldine. He holds soft-ground horse Carruthers on form and Tricky Trickster has 40lb to find with Kauto Star on official ratings. Imperial Commander has never won a race beyond 21 furlongs. They have fielded against Denman this morning and, though he’s bounced back from his setbacks before and has A.P. McCoy determined to redress his personal record on him, he is not a top-of-the-ground speed horse and can be expected to struggle on today’s surface. If it’s a two-horse race between the king, Kauto Star, and the young pretender, Cooldine, with the one at 1.79 and the other at 11.5, there is no choice in betting terms. Cooldine’s price at 11.5 also begs for an each-way bet. Back-and-lay boys will know he often sets the pace but that would not help his chances. My verdict would be:   Kauto Star to beat Cooldine. While value is the only way to bet, I shall get round the problem by doubling Kauto Star with a good thing at Lingfield. Working the best position for yourself is what Betdaq betting is all about.  4.00 Cheltenham (Foxhunters): Earthmover apart (he won aged 13 in 2004), this race has seen young horses trained successfully for it in the last seven years, with ages 6, 7 and 9 (four times) scoring over the experienced hunters, often seemingly unexpected at 33-1 and 20-1 (twice). But the jockeyship required never varies, so that the absolute top amateurs (Burton, Greenall, McNamara) win it every time. In the field this year, Roulez Cool has Sam Whaley-Cohen, and Baby Run Sam Twiston-Davies, Gentle George has Richard Burton and Bob Hall as Adrian Berry. Tom Greenall’s on Trust Fund and Ollie’s on Amicelli with Derek O’Connor riding On The Net. Nina Carberry’s best of the lady riders on Dun Doire. The winner is among those. The short list of young horses – Bob Hall, Gentle George and Roulez Cool – leads me to Betdaq value at 21.0 Gentle George; improving and likes good gorund. The trip is a worry for Bob Hall but Roulez Cool, 9lb in hand on official figures, looks a hot danger. 4.40 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Conditionals): This time you’re sorting the wheat from the chaff among the conditionals; but I hope they all enjoy this race in honour of one of the sports greatest trainers. You are on a hiding to nothing here as punter or layer; I shall just have a pound that David Pipe has successfully worked Ashkazar’s handicap position to win his dad’s race. 5.15 Cheltenham (Grand Annual): That’s it for another year and, if I’m to earn my black belt among the elite of layers, then I’m signing off with a lay on a stable that normally does well at Cheltenham but has done nothing this time: Venetia Williams with paper-favourite Green Belt Elite. He’s had his wins too soon, and mainly in the mud; a 10lb rise and a sound surface should put paid to him. Nicky Henderson has worked his magic again and I can’t fault anyone for backing You’re The Top yet he picked out Pepysrock for special attention at a race preview the other night and 19.5 is value for a top-of-the-ground horse. TODAY'S BETS BET 5pts ALAIVAN (1.30 Cheltenham) BANKER 10pts win BEGGARS OPERA (1.55 Lingfield) WIN-100 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place BAHRAIN STORM, plus 1pt win and place on each ROCK NOIR and DEE EE WILLIAMS (2.05 Cheltenham) BET 2pts win and place on each TELL MASSINI and ENTERPRISE PARK, and 1pt win and place THE HURL (2.40 Cheltenham) BET 2pts win and place COOLDINE (3.20 Cheltenham) BET 3pts win and place ROULEZ COOL and 2pts win and 1pt place GENTLE GEORGE (4.00 Cheltenham) BET 3pts win and place ASHKAZAR (4.40 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts GREEN BELT ELITE and win 100-JACKPOT BET: 5pts win and 1pt place PEPYSROCK (5.15 Cheltenham) DAQ MULTIPLES: 5pts win double Beggars Opera (1.55 Lingfield) and Kauto Star (3.20 Cheltenham)
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More