DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 12 March DAQMAN  ANOTHER LAYS SEQUENCE? Daqman’s sequence of lays ended at seven out of 10 yesterday, an overall recent 10 out of 14, but he immediately bounced back with Bow Badger (4th 4-1 joint fav) and there’s another one today, at Wincanton. MILITARY TWO-STEP: Daqman finds the Military Gold Cup at Sandown an irresistible medium for playing the Betdaq market ‘from tape to winning post.’ His nap is at Ayr. There’s Thunder to the right of them, Blade to the left of them in the charge of the heavy brigade at Sandown this afternoon. But two opening volleys from your hungry mouse should ensure that you are not trampled underfoot. The easy money in the Grand Military Gold Cup (3.30) must be River Indus, a huge 19.5 on Betdaq this morning: sure to be up with the pace and shorten so much in running that a judicious lay should be able to create a profit margin, and you won’t care whether he wins or loses. Oakfield Legend made all last year and, even at 3.45, is also a serious back-and-lay, likely to be odds on in running, with punters mindful that he went clear in 2009 and had them strung out a mile, almost literally, the winning distances being 38 lengths, 14, 26 and 62. With the going in his favour, Scots Dragoon seems the only one likely to get to the leaders from his usual sit in third or fourth, and you’d want to be mousing to back him at 4-1 or so in running, in case the leaders cut their own throats. Bolachor, the next best according to the market, is more than 40 lengths behind Oakfield Legend if a line through Mr Big is taken at face value. I’m suggesting a lot of bets but I think it’s a three-horse race and very much one for Cheltenham practice at grabbing the right odds at the right time, taking a position and amending it during the action from tape to winning post. Rarely do you get a major upset (pun intended); certainly not on this ground. The last time an outsider won, it was so soft out there that two fences had to be omitted; four of the last five favourites have won, three at odds on. Get stuck in and enjoy all the Betdaq betting facilities. I’m logging Scots Dragoon and River Indus as each-way bets but the time for individual bets is when there is a value stand-out: either a horse too big in the betting. There will be catches like that at Cheltenham next week. I can’t have paper-favourite Mon Chevalier in the 4.55 Wincanton. His only win came two years ago in an absolute mud bath at Plumpton, after the course had taken half a foot of snow and faced heavy-duty clearance and three inspections before they allowed it to go ahead. He has failed to place on four runs on ground between firm and good-to-soft. He hasn’t much to beat and that’s the risk (like yesterday) but Wincanton is a fast-fencing course when the going is on top and something will get a lead and use a weight pull to go clear; that’s the shape I can see. If I’m right, I envisage Ours setting the pace but the stable is badly out of form, so he probably won’t last out; Thievery is a rear runner and will need all of Richard Johnson’s ingenuity on this track not to get left behind; Lukie Victor has been tailed off the last twice. The local horse, Wise Men Say, has form on top of the ground; so does The Arsonist, who is a bigger risk but gets lumps of weight. Best bet at Ayr must be the classy Nafaath (2.10), with Howard Johnson two from four with juvenile hurdlers on the course this season and this one dropped in grade. TODAY'S BETS BET 6pts win (nap) NAFAATH (2.10 Ayr) BET 2pts win and place SCOTS DRAGOON and 1pt win and place RIVER INDUS (3.30 Sandown) LAY to win 3pts MON CHEVALIER and BET 3pts win WISE MEN SAY (4.55 Wincanton) DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win double Nafaath (2.10 Ayr) and Oakfield Legend (3.30 Sandown)
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