DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 7 February DAQMAN  SIX BETDAQ-SPONSORED RACES AT SOUTHWELL: Daqman finds some real each-way value at Southwell on a card of six Betdaq-sponsored races. He analyses them all. NEW HENNESSY FAVOURITE AT LEOPARDSTOWN: Daqman has a lay at both Southwell and Leopardstown, where the big race, the Hennessy Gold Cup, has a new favourite this morning. If any more trainers and jockeys write columns, I won’t get a winner at all! Last weekend I was put off an 8-1 ‘good thing’ when I read that it ‘needed better ground’; yesterday I put my pencil through 10-1 winner Beshabar because the chaser was running over hurdles just ‘to sharpen him up.’ How sharp do you want him, Paul? Now Willie Mullins tells us in this morning’s Racing Post that Cooldine is ‘not as fit as I would like him to be.’ Obviously a mortgage job, lads: get on! Yes, ok, I’m suffering from Saturday’s adrenalin bounce: I had both Exmoor Ranger (8-1) and Doctor David (14-1) leading at the last, the one run out of it by a nose, the other fading on the run-in into fourth when - yes you guessed it – there were 15 runners. My other big-race bet, Merrydown, was a plunge horse but made no show. Betdaq backers must have read Mullins’ morning mullings: Cooldine went for a short walk early doors, no longer favourite for the Hennessy (3.45 Leopardstown) as I write. Double your stakes then, boys? Cooldine’s chase reputation hinges on his defeat here last year (in the 2.40 Dr Moriarty Novice Chase) of subsequent Arkle winner, Forpadydeplaster. His own RSA success was in a race lacking substance; only Carruthers has gone on from it. With the exception of one race over today’s course and distance, only Notre Pere of Cooldine’s Hennessy rivals would be regarded as a regular three-miler. But that race, the Lexus, saw them pass the post in the order: Money Trix, Joncol, gap of 14 lengths, then Notre Pere and Schindlers Hunt, with pulled up In Compliance and Cooldine (‘coughed’ post race). Joncol was confirming his superiority over In Compliance and he’d beaten Cooldine before (‘scoped abnormally’ at Punchestown). So the only difference between today and those previous Cooldine races is that Willie Mullins has posted his excuses before, not after, the race. Seems a definite lay. Heavy ground suits Notre Pere but his front-running style and poor recent form leaves him vulnerable to an improver, the still-only-seven Joncol. This year’s ‘Moriarty’ may also have a Cooldine and a ‘Pady’ in it; for my money, they would be Roberto Goldback and Lenabane, though Aranleigh worries me. Why? Tony McCoy didn’t even mention him in his column! 2.10 Southwell (Betdaq On 0870 178 1221): Inside Track is clear in the ratings and clear in the market, odds on as I write. Yet he’s a winner only over 7f and Tiger Hawk has won twice on the course over today’s mile. What’s more, when Tiger Hawk last scored over CD, the time of his race was six-and-a-half seconds faster than when Inside Track was a beaten favourite, second, in an identical race three weeks later. If this is a two-horse race (true odds, even money), then I’ll take the 3.0 Tiger Hawk every time. 2.40 Southwell (Bet Premier League Football – Betdaq Maiden Stakes): While Chelsea could finally spike the Gunners title hopes today, David Barron can follow up his Premier Lad last year by taking this again with Fighter Boy, a tasty 6.2 on the Daq. Fine And Dandie and Just Mandy have experience on their side; Michael Bell’s filly has ‘Binthere’ but not done that. No, the one that worries me is Solstice, getting 10lb from the top two on the card and with Julie Camacho three wins out of five right now. 3.10 Southwell (Bet Six Nations Rugby – Betdaq Selling Stakes): If the ratings are any help, it’s David Barron again with Flow Chart. Hold-up horse Marjolly has just won at Kempton (holds City Gossip) but those tactics here would see him playing catch-up to Flow Chart, who was the ‘moral’ over CD in a better race when just run out of it, conceding weight to the winner. 3.40 Southwell (Bet NFL Superbowl – Betdaq Handicap): All are maidens, barring Taper Jean Girl and she’s won only a seller, though she may reverse recent form with Bertie Buckle over an extra furlong. The track should suit both keen-going Premium Charge and D’Urberville (has beaten Lord’s Seat), with new favourite this morning D’Urberville the one with track form (second) but Premium Charge the least exposed. 4.10 Southwell (Try Betdaq For An Exchange Claiming Stakes): Dunaskin is officially 7lb and more ahead of this lot, though Boundless Prospect leads the market. At ages 10 and 11 respectively, they will have to do a mini-Monkerhostin (he stuffed my Exmoor Ranger, so I didn’t celebrate but I did take my hat off to him). Terminate and Zaffeu are not going to improve at eight and nine and, though the Easterby yard is in form, Ginger’s Lad has been on the slide over hurdles. Spiritonthemount could be transformed in first-time visors but I’ll stick with my old mate Jeremy Glover and Freddie Tylicki’s only ride of the day but I warn you that Dream In Blue will only win it if he wants to. 4.40 Southwell (Bet Premier League Football – Betdaq Handicap): I can’t fancy the boys in blue, plater New England and long-time maiden Mister Frosty; nor, for that matter, the girls in blue, poor maiden Eyesore and Lady Longcroft, beaten a total of 33 lengths in her last two starts. Boy Dancer (like Eyesore, out of the handicap) and Sudden Impulse are getting long in the tooth and can’t improve, and the top three on the card are from yards with no recent success, though Toby Atkinson on twice-in-the-money-here Iceman George is interesting. But safest bet is Highland River, a CD winner, who is back in his own league here after trying better-class races. He was 4.9 this morning but I was delighted to see that I could get 97% of my win stake back from place insurance on Betdaq, even though he’s favourite.  Value or what!   TODAY'S BETS LAY to win 3pts INSIDE TRACK and BET 3pts win TIGER HAWK (2.10 Southwell). BET 4pts win ROBERTO GOLDBACK, and 1pt win and place LENABANE (2.40 Leopardstown) BET 3pts win FLOW CHART (3.10 Southwell) BET 2pts win on each ERADICATE and MARCHAND D’ARGENT (3.30 Musselburgh) LAY to win 5pts COOLDINE and bet 5pts win JONCOL (3.45 Leopardstown) BET 2pts win and place HIGHLAND RIVER (4.40 Southwell)
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 19.74 points
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