DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 6 February DAQMAN  BETDAQ VALUE AT THE BIG MEETINGS: Get your money on the horse! You can’t win unless you are in the big handicaps at Sandown and Doncaster today, wide open races with bags of Betdaq value. EIGHT OUT OF NINE LAYS UP: Daqman puts his current lays sequence of eight out of nine on the line today with a daring bet at Sandown. TWO JACKPOT BETS: Handicaps at both big meetings have jackpot bets – each bidding to win 50 points – with the Sandown one a plot to beat the weather which has ravaged northern-stable hopes. 2.05 Sandown: Tony McCoy had his sights set on an easy double: but, after Binocular (1.30), his mount here, Anak, will really have to focus now that Nicky Henderson has switched perhaps his biggest talking horse, According, to this venue. The dogs at Lambourn are hoarse with barking this one for the Triumph Hurdle. I’m not buying money on a newcomer but I matched up at evens this morning as insurance for an each-way bet on Anak at 7.8. As a layer, I had double-your-money against me but, if According were to shorten up to long odds-on, I’d be happy to lay a horse that hasn’t jumped a twig in public. Anything is a lay when the price is out of sync with the chance. 2.25 Doncaster and 2.35 Sandown: The next at Sandown seems to spell an easy double, According to Henderson. But, with Paul Nicholls attempting a five-timer in the race with his selected, Tchico Polos, Punchestowns is not value at this morning’s 1.28.  We may look back and say he truly was a 4-1 on chance but what was out of sync this morning was Tchico Polos’ price: Punchestowns had forced him out to offers around 5.4; that’s plain wrong in what looks a two-horse battle of tactics in a small field. Strictly on the form book, though you wouldn’t swear on it in court, ‘Chico’ is in front of Punchestowns on a line through Martys Mission but both had the proverbial ton in hand when beating that one at Fontwell and Newbury respectively, months apart. You could lay Punchestowns and try to turn a trick in running but it’s unlikely that, as a front-runner, he will lengthen at any stage here and, if it is a two-horse scrap, you could find yourself needing split-second timing to seize your percentage or get out of trouble late on, though at least you’ve got that uphill finish to slow things down and a lay on Punchestowns is going to cost you peanuts should you ‘get beat.’ Up for the craic? Minutes earlier at Doncaster, Nicholls and Henderson clash again in a small field with the giant Mad Max giving 7lb to Ditcheat’s Woolcombe Folly. If this is a two-horse affair again, you either back ‘Folly’ and save your stake on Mad Max, or t’other way round. But the word from my Nicholls’ man in the long grass is that this is very much a fact-finding mission after a series of operations to put wind and legs right. Blinkers on El Dancer look like desperation; I can’t fancy little Joe Jo Star over fences but I did think I’m Delilah took well to them and gets a 10lb equalizer with Mad Max.. 3.10 Sandown: This one’s easy, too, isn’t it: the bottom six are out of the handicap; nine times out of 10 the winner carries below 10st 11lb.; and 10-year-olds have a nil record. Why, you’ve only got four left to choose from! It’s never as simple as that but betting in the ‘comfort zone’ of a race is part of the value search, looked at this way: you should be extending the odds of those at the wrong age and the wrong weight, or with anything else ‘wrong’, when you price up a race. But, equally, you must factor in other stats and form reckoning if you are to get a fairly accurate view of the odds you need: in fact, horses have won this from out of the handicap six times. Why? Two good reasons are a) the Sandown hill helps a lightweight b) the lower reaches of a handicap is where you are likely to find the potential improvers, like Erzen and Silk Affair here; both are only five. Merrydown is a novice on the minimum who goes well fresh and has been stabled away from the frozen North at Newmarket to get ready for this. One important factor is trainerform: the stables of Racing Demon, Strategic Approach and Silk Affair have managed only thee wins from a total of 40 runners in the last fortnight, and Venetia Williams is missing strike with 15 placed without winning, always a bad sign. Beshabar is having a pre-chase outing and Ashkazar has shown reluctance lately, Strawberry has to bounce back, and Alderluck seems a ‘nearly’ horse, though could figure with all the luck in running. At 9.2, Trenchant looked good enough value on the Daq but he’s had a break which suggests that the Cheltenham Festival is the target, and a further worry is the right-hand track. Merydown then. 3.25 Doncaster: Tarotina is another King horse which has had a long break and looks to be on a trajectory to the Festival; likewise Kalahari King, who is the class horse but isn’t going to leave the Champion Chase behind here. Ruby Walsh has picked Free World of the Nicholls’ pair, but that has left last year’s winner, I’msingingtheblues, at offers of 15.0 on the Daq as I write. However, today’s weights clearly favour last year’s runner-up, Doctor David, who also slammed Kalahari King at Haydock last season. The stats want a single-figure age and a ratings parameter which suggests a short list of Free World, Tartak, Oiseau De Nuit, Doctor David and Pepysrock from those I have not so far eliminated. Leo’s Lucky Star is interesting with Tom Scudamore missing the Pipe rides at Sandown; though he seems to prefer small fields, he has no weight at all here. 3.40 Sandown: More stats to bend the odds: only two favourites have won in 20 years; high weights have a low strike rate. That last one is particularly misleading since only once in the last 10 years has the race been of such a high quality as this one, and that day the winner came from the top half of the handicap. Killyglen, though, looks weighted out of; Razor Royale is seemingly a Cheltenham horse; According To John has fluffed more chances than the Liberal Party; Monkerhostin and Lacdoudal won’t like the ground; Oedipe is a hurdler. I think you’ve really got to give Exmoor Ranger his chance: he’s been fancied for so many lost (to the weather) races but, hopefully, remains on the boil, and I attached to my 6.8 match this morning more than a double-my-money place bet to save the win stake. 4.00 Doncaster: I like four-milers because not many horses do and not many get the weight needed to win one. Of the King pair, Old Benny is a Spring horse and you need built-in risk in your price about Minella Four Star (10.5 is worth a pound) because he loses his jumping action when tired. Jass is much the better fancied of the Reveley runners but I think there’s a horse for the future here: just look at Bay Cherry’s breeding for a race like this (Saddler’s Hall out of a Roselier mare); look at his weight; look at his improvement over the last year. TODAY'S BETS BET 3pts win and place RIVER D’OR (1.55 Doncaster) BET 2pts win and place ANAK (2.05 Sandown) BET 6pts win MAD MAX and 1pt win I’M DELILAH (2.25 Doncaster) LAY to win 6pts PUNCHESTOWNS and 4pts win TCHICO POLOS (2.35 Sandown) WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 7pts win and 3pts place MERRYDOWN (3.10 Sandown) WIN-50 JACKPOT: 4pts win and 1pt place DOCTOR DAVID, and 1pt win LEO’S LUCKY STAR (3.25 Doncaster) BET 2pts win and place BAY CHERRY and 1pt win MINELLA FOUR STAR (4.00 Doncaster) BET 3pts win and place EXMOOR RANGER (3.40 Sandown) DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles According (2.05 Sandown), Mad Max (2.25 Doncaster), Punchestowns (2.35 Sandown) and Doctor David (3.25 Doncaster)
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 19.74 points
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