DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 27 January DAQMAN  GAMBLES COME UNSTUCK: Daqman was in on a series of gambles yesterday but they all came unstuck: Hard Ball (10-1 in to 11-2), Provost (5-1 in to 2-1 fav) and Samizdat (7-2 fav). Daqman’s verdict: Stay on the side of Betdaq value, and you will win in the long run; it’s the only permanently valid law of betting. BETDAQ RACES ANALYSED: More Betdaq-sponsored races at Lingfield today, including a ‘cracking’ handicap at 3 o’clock, but first how to deal with the hot-pot favourites at Huntingdon. The ‘match’, in which a Nicky Henderson hot-pot looked vulnerable, didn’t happen yesterday (Sunnyhillboy withdrawn), but there’s another small-field novice-chase situation involving Henderson at Huntingdon this afternoon. Henry Daly goes for a four-timer in the race: but his Mighty Man (3.20) has Henderson’s Viking Rebel and Charlie Mann’s Sullumo with nothing to lose against the odds-on favourite. However, this is novice-hurdler Viking Rebel’s chasing debut on top of a 643-day absence; and class-4 chaser Sullumo fell last time out. Additionally significant is that both have been steered clear of right-handed tracks; all their success has been left-handed. What is more, twice World Hurdle placed Mighty Man is likely to go off at a rate of knots, intending to expose these flaws of class, lay-off, jumping and track bias. The result surely is that he could become very, very short indeed, and this looks like one of those rare occasions of back-and-lay at odds on (Mighty Man is charged to the account only in Daq Multiples). Mighty Man is 10 now but has only 18 races on his CV, half of which he’s won, for a win-and-place strike-rate of 83%. The only black mark against today’s conditions is the soft ground but he coped with it well enough on his fencing debut at Hereford last month. He’s had time to come on for that and, with Big Buck’s and Co potentially pushing him out of the big hurdle picture, he might even take his chance in the RSA Chase. Another Henderson, Newbury maiden hurdle third, Osric (1.20), has also come on nicely since that day, and has been working very well lately; they’re claiming off Cheshire Prince to close the weights gap, and Action Impact has been well supported this morning. At first glance, a third Henderson ‘match’ seems to be on the cards with Great Reason (1.50) taking on Mille Chief but the betting says: no way; this is a one-horse race, with Mille Chief 1.26. I think this is the reverse of the Mighty Man race, and would be inclined to lay Mille Chief if still that short before the race. There are a couple which could take him on for the lead, and he is prone to lack of fluency in his hurdling. I still think he’ll win but there could well be some offers to bet out with at up to even money and more for the hungry mouse. There are three fair-sized and class-3/4 quality handicaps on an entertaining Huntingdon card, and the man who’s on the past-results record in all of them is Jonjo O’Neill, including with Albertas Run. Rate Of Knots (3.50) looks just the sort of battling mare that Tony McCoy can get the best out of. Ballamusic (2.50) is the each-way choice in the handicap hurdle. 1.30 Lingfield (Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap): Peopleton Brook is 10lb higher than for his last handicap win here but he’s won of this kind of rating on turf. However, collateral form involving The Geester, Trip Switch and Elusive Ronnie give the four of them something to find with Hollow Jo. Grand Palace is down 12lb on his winning rating at this time of year in 2009 but his stable is currently out of form. Love You Louis prefers 5f and Amber Sunset 7f. White Shift (16.0 this morning) is my pace-setter; a class-3 winner on turf in the summer, he’s now down in class-6, 16lb lower and ought to be involved on these terms. The grey filly Tanley, a potential improver for a yard with 100% record here, took well to Lingfield at the turn of the year and his return to the track at 12.5 offers this morning grabbed my attention. 2.30 Lingfield (Try Betdaq For An Exchange Claimer): Clear Sailing has become a standing dish here but is up in trip today, and his make-all tail-flashing style may have to be curbed by a bit of hold-up nursing from Paul Doe. Theocritus wins it on official ratings and ran well enough at Dundalk way back to suggest he will cope with the surface here, though he descended to plating class for his recent win and he, too, is up in trip. I’d fancy Fantasy Ride if this were Wolverhampton but the Lingfield horse at this trip is clearly Sunset Boulevard, on the same mark as for one of his five CD successes. 3.00 Lingfield (Bet Asian Handicaps – Betdaq Handicap): A fierce up-front match between Justcallmehandsome and Prince Of Thebes did not materialize here last time but, if the two do get into a duel, Hereford Boy and course-specialist Rapid City should benefit. Hereford Boy let Prince Of Thebes do the hard work before getting up at Kempton recently but there was only a length between them at today’s weights and, as I repeat ad infinitum, horses at this level rarely put back-to-back wins together. So I wasn’t surprised to see Gallantry – back to form and down in the handicap - move into the favourite’s spot on Betdaq this morning. There’s just 0.9 points between the top three in the market, as I write. It’s a cracking little contest and, after the blindfold was removed, I saw that my pin had come down on Prince Of Thebes, while visualizing in my mind a photo-finish of bobbing heads TODAY'S BETS BET 4pts win (nap) OSRIC (1.20 Huntingdon) BET 1pt win and place on each TANLEY and WHITE SHIFT (1.30 Lingfield) BET 3pts win SUNSET BOULEVARD (2.30 Lingfield) BET 2pts win and place BALLAMUSIC (2.50 Huntingdon) BET 3pts win RATE OF KNOTS (3.50 Huntingdon) DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles Osric (1.20 Huntingdon) with Sunset Boulevard (3.30 Lingfield), Mighty Man (3.20 Huntingdon) and Rate Of Knots (3.50 Huntingdon)
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 19.74 points
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