DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 28 January DAQMAN  MEYDAN OPENS: The day is marked by the opening of Meydan: Sheikh Mohammed’s personal mirage in the desert near Dubai city becomes reality. A DAY OF 10 BETDAQ SPONSORED RACES ON AW: Meanwhile, Daqman takes you through a day of 10 Betdaq-sponsored races from lunchtime at Southwell to twilight time at Kempton. Billions have been invested in it and billions will be made by the shrewdies who operate there. No, I’m not talking about the banks in the recession but that oasis of luxury, Dubai, that has so far defied all who want to bring her down. We can only stand and stare as the magnificent Meydan opens its golden gates but, as I’m sure you’ll be tempted to do, I’ll throw a shekel at the sheikhs’ paradise – shouldn’t that be dirham? – and have a twlight flutter on Leahurst (7.05). My man says Leahurst has done enough to put himself in the hard-to-beat category for an English success under champion Ryan Moore on the opening night. At home over the sticks, Riskareas (1.15 Warwick) is reckoned an exciting type and is ‘expected’ to continue the Alan King revival. Meanwhile back on the AW…. 1.35 Southwell (Bet Australian Open Tennis – Betdaq Maiden): Cluedo answer to this puzzle of a maiden: Reverend Green in the (form) study with a spanner (in the works). In fact, both Reverend Green and first-time-visored Swell Fellow could murder the favourite Takajan: both have front-run or pulled hard early in the past and are bumper horses used to taking a prominent position, ideal for Southwell. The Betdaq market this morning showed Takajan short (lay and bet then, if he has to come from behind) and Swell Fellow a massive 37.0 (back and lay then, as he’ll shorten dramatically if the visors take effect and he goes to the front). 3.50 Southwell (betdaq.co.uk Handicap): Despite his CD win a week ago, Highland River was a dog on a raft this morning, drifting on a tide of no interest out to 7.0, result perhaps of a sustained run on Criterion, in to 4.5. That may be due to Ian Williams’ current 53% win-and-place strike rate, cemented by the beast’s strong finish over 1m on the course a month ago. However, Criterion put up a similarly flattering display at Kempton earlier and has also been tried at 2m when, surprisingly, he led in the early stages. Two ways of running, fishing for his trip; doesn’t add up to a backable favourite to me. However, another late run is predictable, since Shifting Gold - looking high in the weights - has been freshened up, and is likely to get a move on early. Another rear runner, Charging Indian, could also benefit from the decent pace but he’s well held by Bosamcliff on November form.  Laureldeans Best isn’t out of it, despite failing to lose the maiden certificate, but Strikemaster has shown signs of reluctance. 4.20 Southwell (Bet In Running – Betdaq Apprentice Handicap): I thought the easy winner here three weeks ago, Dontpaytheferryman, would be short but they came for Aaman this morning. He certainly looks the keen-going type who should do well on the course. The handicapper is taking another chance with CD-winner They All Laughed, now 17lb below his last winning mark, and I can see him chasing Spring Breeze, a consistent sort who goes with the pace but lacks a finish, so a prime contender for a Southwell push from the front. With 16 consecutive losers in the last two weeks, Alan McCabe (Jazrawy) is currently in the doldrums and even local-winners vintner Jeremy Glover will find it hard to squeeze any juice out of Red Wine. 4.55 Kempton (Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap): This might be a seamless transition from Southwell style if Commandingpresence gets away on the rail but his stable is among six ‘cold trainers’ on the Racing Post list, which includes the trainer of the favourite, Sonhador: S.A. Harris, G.P. Enright, G. Prodromou, H.J. Evans, P Burgoyne, J.J. Bridger. In fact, Commandingpresence was worn down by Equinity (second) over CD a fortnight ago. This is the time of year for Davids Mark – he’s won in January two years running – and Jessica Wigmo, four times a course winner, including in January and February (twice), and down to her last winning mark (15.5 on the Daq, as I write). 5.25 Kempton (Bet Super League – Betdaq Handicap): It’s very rare for outsiders to be too short on Betdaq but Grizedale’s CV tells us he’s won only once here from 35 starts, so you can pencil him in at 34-1 not the 23.0 he’s offered at, as I write. In fact, in pricing up, you have to assess other chances in relation to his, and once again cold trainers make up the greater part (64%) of the field from a 26-day (Ian Wood) and month-long (M. E. Rowland) losing run, through Brisbourne, McInnes and Bridger to Christine Dunnett’s 94 days and beyond to the frozen wastes of H.J. Evans (112 days) and P. Burgoyne (245). Maybe one of those yards will bounce back here but I’m not going to bet on it: I’m going to take my pick in the value area of the remaining stables; they make up to 56% using offers at the time of writing. Reigning Monarch has had no luck with the draw, and Dicey Affair (seemingly holds Imperial Twilight) has done best at Lingfield, so I’ll put my pound on improving Clever Omneya in the hope that Tom Queally can get that bit more out of her that Stephen Craine needed over CD last time out. 5.55 Kempton (Betdaq The Betting Exchange Maiden): Noseda, Elsworth, Chapple-Hyam, Balding, Johnston.. has the Flat started without me? This is as bigger prize as for later handicaps so the mafia’s out in force, as they were last year when Chapple-Hyam beat off Channon, Hannon and Prescott and, just like last year’s winner, his runner, Neduardo, is a runner-up last time out within 10 days of the race. ‘Primed’ is the word I’m looking for. 6.25 Kempton (betdaqextra.com Handicap): Pocket Two (three wins out of six at today’s trip) won this race off 66 two years ago, and Lee Newnes’ allowance takes him a pound below that mark here. But all three past winners have been aged five and six. M’Lady Rousseur fits that bill, won easily over CD last autumn and is the danger to Pocket Two; the absence is a worry but the form of the others makes little appeal. 6.55 Kempton (Bet In Running – Betdaq Handicap): Quinsman is penalized 5lb for last time’s CD win but looks the danger to Eseej, whose front-running style makes him a potential back-and-lay. 7.25 Kempton (Betdaq On 0870 178 1221 Handicap): Clive Cox is in good form, currently with a 40% strike rate, and many of you will fancy front-runner Dens Gift at 4.0 this morning, with a view to saving your stake in running. He’s been runner-up over CD three times on the trot now and that would normally qualify him for a Bismarck from me, but it’s difficult to lay a horse that has much the best form in this grade, unless Snow Bay and Vainglory improve for the surface or Stand Guard bounces back.  7.55 Kempton (Bet In Running Handicap): Diddums is the dog on a raft (out to 11.5) and Dvinsky the one they want (in to 5.4 favourite), as I write. Dvinsky and four-times-a-course-winner Sherjawy are sure to make this a healthy test, and I wouldn’t fancy Hollow Jo to bust a lung again two days running at his age. Jack Rackham has won and been placed three times after an absence and, with that implied here, 6.6 looked like the big getting-out bet, each-way. TODAY'S BETS BET 4pts win (jumps nap) RISKAREAS (1.15 Warwick) LAY to win 3pts TAKAJAN (1.35 Southwell) BET 1pt win and place BOSAMCLIFF (3.50 Southwell) BET 3pts win AAMAN (4.20 Southwell) BET 1pt win and place JESSICA WIGMO (4.55 Kempton) BET 2pts win and place CLEVER OMNEYA (5.25 Kempton) BET 3pts win NEDUARDO (5.55 Kempton) BET 4pts win (nap) LEAHURST (7.05 Meydan) BET 3pts win and place JACK RACKHAM (7.55 Kempton)
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 19.74 points
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