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IRELAND'S EYE on Thursday

Thursday 31 December

IRELAND'S EYE

Though the weather threatens to prove a spoil sport we do nevertheless have a double header in Ireland today with Punchestown and Tramore staging a couple of interesting post Christmas meetings. In England jumping enthusiasts are catered for with a decent card at Warwick where a former Irish point winner represents value in a handicap chase. On the final days racing of 2009 we will be striving to get out in the closing bumpers at Tramore and Punchestown with a Nina Carbery special and a former point winner at the Waterford venue.

The penultimate day of the season saw us record three from three at admittedly shortish odds at Taunton with nap Owen Glendower (5/6-8/13) taking the closing division of the bumper in style. In addition Tito Bustillo (4/5-8/13) and Ramses De Marcigny (7/4) gave us and the Nicholls/Walsh combination a double at the same venue.

The exasperating Drive On Regardles looks set to go off the market leader in the 2m 4f maiden hurdle at Tramore at 2-05 and though the Willie Mullins trained 6yo best efforts entitle him to respect the dual bumper winner has now has failed to make the breakthrough in nine efforts over flights. The vote goes to the Edward O’Grady trained mare Lou’s Coole Girl who showed plenty of guts to land a Downpatrick bumper (2m 2f) on her second start in this sphere less than a fortnight ago. However the daughter of Bob Back showed progressive form in her two initial starts over jumps and a reproduction of her fair if flattering third to the exciting Dunguib at Galway over the minimum trip over two months ago on heavy ground should see the Andrew McNamara ridden 6yo take major honours here where the locally trained Cott For Cash – an easy Wexford bumper winner – could pose the main threat if a below par run last time is excused.

Carrickmines has taken some time to get his winning act together but the switch to fences has brought about a major transformation in the Newland trained 7yo who has now recorded two facile wins at Chepstow and Wincanton over an extended 2m and 2m 5f. Despite the fact that the son of Saddlers’ Hall has gone up 17lbs for those victories he looks the one to beat in the 2m 4 1/2f hc chase at Warwick today at 2-50 but we will give the vote to the former Irish point winner Bobby Donald and the former Eric McNamara trained 7yo can land the odds here at decent odds under Robert Thornton on his third start over fences for the Richard Phillips yard. Though he has only shown average form over flights he has looked more at home over fences and his two placed efforts at Bangor and over course and distance on his seasonal debut seven weeks ago. That last effort looked quite promising as he only faded in the closing stages there to finish a fair third to Like A Duke and with that run under his belt he can open his account on the track though soft ground does curb ones confidence and a saver on Carrickmines and Master Cobbler could prove the answer here.

Liz Lalor and Vinny Keane can combine to land the concluding race on the Tramore card, a 2m bumper confined to lady riders at 3-35. Lalors vehicle here is the 5yo Crannaghmore Mist who started at short odds on his sole point start and duly delivered last year at Bennettsbridge over 2m 4f where he had the subsequent decent hurdle winner Cootehill back in second. The Turtle Island gelding was only just touched off after being well supported in a Ffos Las bumper following an absence of more than a year and a half and he filled the same position at Cork almost three weeks ago. He can finally open his track account at the third time of asking here at the expense of another lightly raced sort in Benefit Scheme who has shown some promise in a point and a Gowran bumper which saw the 5yo mare staying on to take a close fourth in a Gowran bumper on heavy ground.

Nina Carberry and Lonesome Dove did us a favour last time out at Cork where the Charlie Swan trained 5yo mare showed commendable battling qualities under an inspired drive to beat one of todays opponents Perfectly Composed narrowly over the minimum trip in a bumper. Though the last named flattered on that occasion and there may be grounds for that one ‘turning the tables’ on the Swan runner the extra trip of 2m 2f in this winners bumper at Punchestown looks sure to favour the Nina Carberry ridden mare in this mares only contest and she can account for likely favourite Arauaria who is arguably the form choice having landed her bumper over course and distance in October and her subsequent saying on second to the unbeaten For Bill (gave 10lbs) at Navan almost six weeks ago. However her stable have not been firing of late and she is passed over on this occasion.

2-15 PUNCHESTOWN 2m 4f hc hurdle

BERONI is proving another example of a horse which has seemed to improve for a switch to the Willie Mullins yard and the 7yo looks difficult to oppose under Paul Townend in this handicap where he can account for the Ruby Walsh ridden Farringdon.

3-05 TRAMORE – 2m 5f novice chase

Our old friend CRU is offered one more chance to finally open her chase account following a litany of near misses (one over this course and 2m behind Beroni) and the David Casey ridden mare can beat Philip Fentons former point to point winner Oran Flyer.

ADVICE
BET 4pt win LOU’S COLLE GIRL 2-05 Tramore
BET lay DRIVE ON REGARDLES to win 6pt 2-05 Tramore
BET 3pt win BOBBY DONALD 2-50 Warwick
BET 1pt win (savers) CARRICKMINES and MASTER COBBLER 2-50 Warwick
BET 4pt win CRANNAGHMORE MIST 3-35 Tramore
BET 2pt win (saver) BENEFIT SCHEME 3-35 Tramore
BET 5pt win (nap) LONESOME DOVE 3-45 Punchestown
BET 2pt win (saver) ARAUCARIA 3-45 Punchestown



 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 9.91 points

 

DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 31 December DAQMAN  SIX MORE THE MERRIER FOR DAQMAN: After nine winning bets on Boxing Day and eight on Tuesday, Daqman landed six more yesterday. FOUR LAYS UP OUT OF FIVE: He won in every race he bet in, and landed four lays out of five, including a double whammy when Ultimate Limit (win bet, won 7-2) beat More The Merrier (lay, 2nd 4-1). He’s now had 11 lays up from the last 12. 30 WINNING BETS IN FIVE DAYS: He took his profits since Saturday to more than 42 points, totting up 30 winning bets in the last five days, 125 in 31 days. ANOTHER CENTURY BREAK? He’s currently scoring at a rate of 100 wins in 20 days. His fastest centuries are 24 days, 26 days and the 27-day ‘ton’ he completed on Boxing Day. Altogether, he’s now hit nine centuries in 30 days or less. What a great year’s racing we’ve had: whether you are a jumps follower (Kauto Star) or a Flat fanatic (Sea The Stars), you’ve never had it so good. As ever, the powers-that-be don’t know how to celebrate: it wouldn’t have been too much bother to have put on a show today or tomorrow with a special race celebrating a special year, with both superstars on parade. Unless we blow our own trumpets and tell the world what a great sport we’ve got, no one will notice. Cheltenham is one of our showpiece tracks. But, though both are worthy in their place, tomorrow’s Annual Pony-Club Raceday Chase and the High Sheriff of Gloucestershire’s ‘bumper’ are hardly the feature events with which to launch a new year to the masses. You have to sell a modern product, make a scene so that no one with a camera can afford to miss it. Ensure that those who are not with us feel deprived. It’s not difficult for racing to make out it’s got the best: it has. Tony McCoy at Warwick and Ruby Walsh at Punchestown today are two of the best riders on a racecourse at the same time since Fred Winter, Pat Taaffe and Bryan Marshall appeared on the same card. Punchestown will cheer an old favourite when Hardy Eustace turns out for the 1.45: he’s 13 tomorrow and as old in equine terms as the eponymous heroine of the race title, the Kathleen Clarke 80th Birthday Hurdle. ’Hardy’ won his last Grade-1 here on heavy little more than a year ago; he cut out a lot of the running in the recent Hatton’s Grace, and this represents a huge drop in class. It’s four years since he won today’s event: ‘Hardy’ was 8-1 on that afternoon and it is a reflection of his days of decline that he’s 3.7 and not even favourite on the Daq this morning. But this is a comeback race for both Glencove Marina (718 days off with injury) and Wild Passion (1153 days’ absence), and a stepping-stone to the Thyestes for Footy Facts. So 3.7 Hardy Eustace looks good to me. The odds-on shot they’re talking about today is Beroni (2.15), and so they should be, since he’s running off a hurdles mark 26lb lower than the revised chase rating after he won the Troytown. Farringdon is seemingly on the upgrade but it’s a tall order for Ruby Walsh to give 12lb to Paul Townend on Beroni. I can hardly believe that the stables of King, O’Neill, Pipe and Venetia Williams, which all have runners in one race at Warwick (1.20), have together mustered only 11 wins from 104 runners in the last fortnight.  Maybe Tom George will see them all off with Invisible Man, who could try to steal the race, as a front-runner dropped back to 2m. I’ve been tipping ‘Kingy’ to break out of the doldrums and Miss Overdrive (2.20) must surely go close, getting a stone from market rival Silver Kate. Nick Gifford (Gentle Caribou) and Lucy Wadham (Queen Poline) are both out of form – without a win in the last fortnight – and it’s anything from 29.0 to 1000.0 bar those four. Bradford Boris (2.50), trained by Nick Williams (four winners from his last nine runners), looked one-paced on good ground in the autumn and the Warwick mud should see him place at least today, returning after a break: 7.4 the win and a very decent 2.64 the place on Betdaq, as I write. They bet as though the bumper (3.50) is a match but it’s no contest between Lucky Sunny, and Tony McCoy’s mount, Salpierre, on the times of their respective races at Uttoxeter. Unlucky loser under a 10lb-claimer, Salpierre (stumbled) was second in a race won in 3m 49secs, while Lucky Sunny, albeit on softer ground, was nearly a minute ‘slow’ of the course average, taking 4m 26secs to win his. The difference is about the distance between Kauto Star and my Aunt Katie on a donkey at level weights on Southport beach. Perhaps I exaggerate (!) but something has to mould your opinion or you’d never have a bet, and 4.1 Salpierre, with McCoy up, looks like the clincher to me. I laid paper-favourite Fazza (1.00) at Lingfield. Granted he has the experience but he’s had chances to win, and I think I can beat him with two onto one: I’m told that Lou Bear and Calculus Affair have each done well since the debut. Calculus Affair has been particularly eye-catching at home, working with Awesome Act, and he’ll know much more about the game this time.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 4pts FAZZA and BET 4pts win CALCULUS AFFAIR (1.00 Lingfield) BET 1pt win INVISIBLE MAN (1.20 Warwick) BET 4pts win HARDY EUSTACE (1.45 Punchestown) BET 8pts win (nap) BERONI (2.15 Punchestown) BET 6pts win MISS OVERDRIVE (2.20 Warwick) BET 2pts win and place BRADFORD BORIS (2.50 Warwick) BET 5pts win SALPIERRE (3.50 Warwick) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble BERONI (2.15 Punchestown), Miss Overdrive (2.20 Warwick) and Salpierre (3.50 Warwick) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 15.93 points
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DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 30 December DAQMAN  EIGHT MORE FOR DAQMAN YESTERDAY: It was just a breeze for Daqman again yesterday when he had eight returns, landing his fifth winning best bet out of six with Take The Breeze (nap, won 15-8) and placing Doctor Pat (won 9-4) as the best-priced pivot of three winning doubles. THAT’S 24 IN FOUR DAYS: That brought his total over the holiday period so far to 24 winning bets in four days for 24 points profit, and his lays reached seven in a row through Hunterview (2nd 9-4). 119 IN 30 DAYS: His overall success rate is four wins a day, with the current score 119 in 30 days. His lays sequence at this time is 24 out of 32. That’s a 75% strike-rate but he's going for a five-timer today which will lift it much higher or do a lot of damage! Layers have been lapping up the losers: they’ve never had it so good, thanks to a recent run of poor form from leading stables. Nigel Twiston-Davies had three more ‘down the pan’ yesterday, making his current sequence 0-37; Alan King failed to score again, taking him to 3-39; Jonjo O’Neill is sputtering along on 3-32, Venetia Williams on 3-23 and David Pipe 2-25. December has been Christmas gift-wrapped for Nicky Henderson, with Paul Nicholls pulling some of the big crackers, and Nick Williams and Philip Hobbs coming late to the party. Henderson is currently on a lethal 73% win-and-place strike rate but it’s his overall season’s hit of 32% which is really quite staggering. Your difficulties in pricing up a race are normally how much horses trained by the hot trainers - the Nicholls and the Hendersons – are being overbet, and when will the trainers in the doldrums suddenly sail their ships out of the fog. But I know several punters who are piling up their banks, laying the lean stables - betting almost blind against them - and ‘sequence’ staking Henderson: playing his horses as if a high percentage must win (and they do). You know my rule: only get serious with serious-quality racing, which I hope a couple of dozen Daqman returns over the holidays have proved. But temptation is beckoning us to lay against the losers and play up on the winners at Taunton today and, to be fair, three of the races are class-3. My ‘obvious’ lays would have to be paper-favourites Karky Schultz (2.15), for the Eustace yard – no winner for nearly nine weeks – and More The Merrier (2.50), for the Alners, yet to score in December. Karky Schultz is looking a regular bridesmaid now (figures of 2234442 in nine outings), so often on the premises without getting the bouquet. The usual suspects – King, Pipe and O’Neill – can’t be relied upon, but Hobbs, who runs Nearby, and David Evans (Jordan’s Light) are banging in the winners. More The Merrier is a similar bridesmaid, with six times second showing in the form-figures printed by the Racing Post. Where Karky Schulz’s problem seem to lie in his one pace, Merrier’s is more a case of poor jumping, with ‘mistake’, ‘mistake’, ‘not fluent’ and ‘blundered’ recorded in the form of his last four starts. This race has decent bets in Sea Saffron and Ultimate Limit: both are ‘glass’ horses – hard to keep sound – so their stables must have them right when fresh. I shall dutch them for a fixed profit yield, paid for by laying More The Merrier. Ultimate Limit, whose yard is among the winners, is 1021 after a break in the last four years, with only 22 runs in his entire career, though aged nine; Sea Saffron at eight has run even less - only seven times - and won his last race on today’s course after a 296-day absence. If the market has it right in the Henderson v Nicholls clashes, Ramses De Marcigny (3.25) will beat Shakalakaboomboom and Owen Glendower (3.55) has the edge on Irish Airman. That’s one apiece. We have a County Hurdle at Taunton and City & Suburbans at Kempton: leave those race titles alone, you guys, or structure them properly into heats and a final, and give them some local kudos! What’s in a name? Well, be careful you don’t confuse the Henderson horse at Taunton with Shakalaka (3.05) at Lingfield. Or does it matter, since I’ve got them both down as losers: boom, boom! Shakalaka is the original bashful bridesmaid, hanging away the chances on more than one occasion, and setting up shameful recent form figures of 224432. He drops back to a maiden here, and was the ‘moral’ in a claimer last time out, giving nearly a stone to the narrow winner. But can you trust him, even now? Chanrossa looks a similar born loser but Ed Dunlop is in good form. The one I fancy, though – and I admit I’m reading between the lines when there may be nothing there – is Jeff Pearce’s Big Nige. Far be it from me to suggest that there is an element or two of disguise in his having raced at Newmarket and then on the softer AW terrain of Wolverhampton, without a penny for him so far: he might just be a donkey. Zerzura wouldn’t have to be any great shakes to beat this shower, and Henry Cecil has potted the odd one straight into the pocket whenever he fancies this winter so far. ‘Holding her form well’ is how the Racing Post describes another bridesmaid running today: Six Wives (6.50 Kempton), with figures of 232332 among her last nine starts: ‘trainer tearing his hair out’ would be a more apt comment. Jeremy Glover is one of the world’s worst worriers, so I imagine a large bald patch is developing, and the pate will take a beating again today if Dean Ivory has anything to do with it. While Glover has failed to hit target even once in the last fortnight, Dean has really cracked it with a 50% strike-rate, in the manner of father Ken, the Radlett wizard, whose winners used to empty the take in many a Herts betting-shop. With the Ivorys’ Miss Lesley easy to back at 11.5, as I write, they’ve come for Six Wives, in to favourite on the Daq: win or lose, you can have that one with me, boys. I’ve got others on my side, as well as Miss Lesley: for instance, Athwaab, from another stable in form, has been allowed a pound for a short-head beating by Six Wives last time out and it could be enough in today’s contest, as I’ll explain. R Woody has just hit form after a breathing op, and Blue Neptune, who has been creeping closer to Wanchai Whisper in every one of three runs against him, now has the weights pull he needs. What makes this race a layer’s delight, whether you opt against Six Wives or no, is that Blue Neptune, Lets Move It, Miss Lesley, Special Betty and Six Wives have all tried to make all in the past. Something’s gotta give and offers are going to fluctuate in-running, with Special Betty (33.0), Lets Move It (20.0) and Miss Lesley all possible shorteners. Athwaab should get the pace he needs but it’s one for the hungry mouse.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 3pts KARKY SCHULTZ (2.15 Taunton) LAY to win 5pts MORE THE MERRIER, and DUTCH 2pts win SEA SAFFRON and 3pts win ULTIMATE LIMIT (2.50 Taunton) LAY to win 2pts each CHANROSSA and SHAKALAKA, and BET 2pts win ZERZURA and 1pt win and place BIG NIGE (3.05 Lingfield). LAY to win 2pts SIX WIVES and BET 2pts win ATHWAAB (6.50 Kempton) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Zerzura (3.05 Lingfield) and Ramses De Marcigny (3.25 Taunton) with Owen Glendower (3.55 Taunton) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Tuesday's Return was: PROFIT 21.42 points
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More

IRELAND'S EYE on Wednesday

Wednesday 30 December

IRELAND'S EYE

After a flurry of action in the last 4 days its back to a quiet day today with Taunton providing the only jumps racing. However patience may be required as our best bet goes in the final race on that card while the all conquering Nicholls yard can take the other division of the same contest.

Yesterday proved a good day for us with a winning nap courtesy of Western Leader (7/2) taking the opener at Leopardstown while saver Tulintain (7-13/2) beat our selection Proform Native (5/2-2/1) in the closing hunter chase at Limerick. In addition another of our savers The Flying Dustman (7/2) scored on a return to fences with our main choice Colls Corner (7/2) back in third while we also had another winning saver in What A Friend (11/2) in the deferred Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. However one of our main bets Finian’s Rainbow (15/8-13/8) could only manage a close third in a bunch finish to the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. Our back up service also landed a couple of winners in Champion Hurdle hopeful Solwhit (evens -8/11) scoring at the Foxrock track while our saver Take the Breeze (2-15/8) ran away with the opener at Newbury.

Nicky Hendersons 4yo Owen Glendower let us down when just failing to make a winning debut in a decent Southwell bumper a month ago but he can make amends and justify shortish odds in the finale on the Taunton card today at 3-55 under Barry Geraghty. The second division of this contest should be within the remit of the well bred son of Anshan who ran well in defeat on his debut before going down to a potentially useful sort in the year older Double Expresso who got first run on him on that occasion. His main danger may come from the once raced Nicholls runner Irish Airman who ran reasonably well till fading to fifth in a competitive Ascot bumper two months ago. There may not be much between this pair as both face softer ground for the first time but a narrow vote is accorded to the Henderson runner.

1-10 TAUNTON – 2m 1f novice hurdle

In what has the look of a straight match a narrow vote goes to course and distance winner TITO BUSTILLO – a dual hurdle winner and the only winner in the field who is taken to give away 10lbs to the promising Alan King 5yo Spirit Of Adjisa who is making his second hurdle start here.

3-25 TAUNTON – 2m 1f bumper

In a race where it is difficult to enthuse about the previously raced runners it could pay to side with the Nicholls/Walsh combination and their debutant 4yo RAMSES DE MARCIGNY  who may prove the answer. Michael Keighley’s fellow debutant Spring Moon may prove the main danger.


ADVICE
BET 5pt win (nap) OWEN GLENDOWER 3-55 Taunton
BET 2pt win (saver) IRISH AIRMAN 3-55 Taunton
BET 3pt win TITO BUSTILLO 1-10 Taunton
BET 4pt win RAMSES DE MARCIGNY 3-25 Taunton


 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Tuesday's Return was: PROFIT 13 points

 

DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 29 December DAQMAN  SENSATIONAL DAY WITH DAQMAN: Daqman previews the action race by race on a huge day’s sport today, with the combination of Leopardstown and Newbury worthy of any card at the Cheltenham Festival. CHELTENHAM POINTERS: In fact, there will be Cheltenham pointers galore from the Lexus, the December Hurdle, the Challow and the Long Walk, plus novice chasers which have the Arkle as their targets. SIX LAYS IN A ROW: As ever, daring Daqman, on a roll of six in a row, opposes one of the hot favourites. He originally laid What A Friend for the Lexus but not at revised prices, as a new favourite emerged on Betdaq this morning, likely to be the first of many gambles on this feast of a day. 12.00 Newbury: Of these leading Arkle contenders, Dave’s Dream looked smart at Huntingdon when running out a cosy winner but the form has not been franked since and stablemate Working Title brushed aside the smart I Have Dreamed with little trouble. Sunnyhillboy seems some way off the required level here and will need all of McCoy’s assistance. Den Of Iniquity’s form has not been advertised. It is pertinent to recall that Moon Over Miami beat the odds-on Big Buck’s in this two years ago when giving weight all round: Take The Breeze is in that position today but has looked the business in both his starts, including getting the better of the highly regarded Bensalem, who ran Diamond Harry to half a length last January. 12.30 Newbury: With the Pipe yard struggling for winners, it’s a worry to see headgear fitted for morning-favourite Hunterview’s debut and, though Kings Troop was up to 20lb behind him on the Flat, there are good vibes from Barbury Castle about this one. The grey Rajamand has reportedly been working smartly at home with Crack Away Jack and will not want for fitness or ability on his hurdling debut. The French import is being aimed at the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and 7.4 on Betdaq this morning had some built-in risk. In my list of dark horses, I named Puzzlemaster as a Triumph Hurdle prospect and he has done some electrifying schooling: remember how Hughie Morrison unleashed Marble Arch, who ran in the same colours? He’s come in for very good support (4.4 as I write). 1.00 Newbury: Massini’s Maguire goes well fresh and Philip Hobbs was in unbeatable form yesterday. Off a long absence, Big Fella Thanks is best watched and Carruthers needs to improve his jumping. Lexus backers will be looking to Niche Market to boost What A Friend after their placings in the Hennessy and I’m told to expect a much better showing from Roll Along, who wins this on official figures. 1.25 Leopardstown (Lexus Chase): The stats dictate that a young horse will triumph: only when Beef Or Salmon completed back-to-back wins against four opponents has there been a winner aged over eight. Voy Por Ustedes is now a horse with nowhere to go except Aintree; he’ll always be meeting improving, young animals but he might just sneak one back there in the Spring: two of his last three wins were at Aintree, and all bar one success in three years has been in February, March and April. Paul Nicholls drops a big hint that Aintree is also the target for What A Friend: the trainer talks up the six-year-old’s Hennessy second to Denman – when he finished well through tired horses - but, secretly, he must have had to think long and hard about what to do with him, now that he has that albatross round his neck in full view of the handicapper. Meanwhile, taking on a field like this Lexus at ‘levels’ is equally likely to end in tears: he needs to have improved two stone since Cheltenham. Notre Pere seems already to have been found out at this level and Joncol rather than J’y Vole has emerged best of the younger generation, and ran well over 25f at Punchestown. Cooldine was the beaten odds-on favourite that day but didn’t look the same horse that had won the RSA Chase at Cheltenham (What A Friend 30 lengths down the field). Cooldine’s form is 1311 after a break, and Willie Mullins is just now emerging from a lean spell; it’s still a big ask but he was significantly in to lead the Betdaq market this morning. 2.00 Leopardstown (December Hurdle): When horses have been beating each other, you have to judge future races on a) the going b) the improver amongst them. Sublimity, second to Go Native in the Fighting Fifth with Solwhit third and Won In The Dark fourth, cannot be the improver at the age of nine and Won In The Dark is always the bridesmaid. Solwhit has beaten Muirhead twice at Punchestown when the ground was soft-heavy. Muirhead has his big chance here on a sounder surface but Solwhit is a year younger and has himself won three races on good-to-soft. Solwhit’s form dipped after a win last year but he came back to set up a four-in-a-row sequence. I don’t think he’ll go the same way as the other notable Fighting Fifth failure, Binocular. 2.05 Newbury (Challow Hurdle): River D’Or is not yet showing at home what his price tag indicates and, considered more a chasing prospect, nothing is really expected here today. Reve De Sivola has won only once in seven starts and has just been found out at the highest level; looks vulnerable to an improver. Duke Of Lucca has come out best in two pieces of smart work with Menorah, the Boxing Day winner, and looks a cracking each-way bet on Betdaq this morning at 14.0 the win and double-your-money a place for a yard firing so strongly. Alan King really rates Manyriverstocross and expects a big display but, while King still struggles for winners, the Henderson camp could win with the stable cat and they seem bullish about the chances of Finian’s Rainbow: having scored decisively last time, he has come on at home and worked encouragingly with Petit Robin; he also works with the likes of Punchestowns. 2.40 Newbury (Long Walk Hurdle): This is a big-league match and, though Lough Derg should give a good account up front and Karabak, who stays well, looks a place bet for third, this is the pretender Diamond Harry against the reigning champ Big Bucks. Since ‘Harry’ destroyed handicappers at Haycock in the style of a top class horse, his chasing campaign has been put on hold for now, which is a relief to Nicky Henderson with Punchestowns but not to Paul Nicholls, whose open road with Big Buck’s now has this early barrier to overcome. However, the way he went by Lough Derg over CD last time sets Big Bucks apart, with Diamond Harry officially needing 9lb improvement just to get near. A treat of a race. 3.15 Newbury: Doctor Pat looked very smart last time: if that can be reproduced here – and, with A.P. aboard, we can rely on it – he should take all the beating. 3.45 Newbury: Midnight Prayer is another for your Daq Multiples: has improved significantly since the debut but, if you still can’t bring yourself to back an Alan King runner, there are good vibes for Macs Haul (8.4 on the Daq, as I write) and Total Submission (21.0).
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win (nap) TAKE THE BREEZE (12.00 Newbury) LAY to win 6pts HUNTERVIEW, and BET 3pts win PUZZLEMASTER and 2pts win 1pt place RAJAMAND (12.30 Newbury) BET 4pts win on each COOLDINE and JONCOL (1.25 Leopardstown) BET 5pts win SOLWHIT (2.00 Leopardstown) BET 4pts win FINIANS RAINBOW, and 1pt win and place DUKE OF LUCCA (2.05 Newbury) BET 5pts win DOCTOR PAT (3.15 Newbury) DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles Solwhit (2.00 Leopardstown) with Big Buck’s (2.40 Newbury) Doctor Pat (3.15 Newbury) and Midnight Prayer (3.45 Newbury) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Monday's Return was: LOSS 22.25 points
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More

IRELAND'S EYE on Tuesday

Tuesday 29 December

IRELAND'S EYE

On the final day of both Irish Christmas meetings at Limerick and Leopardstown there is some fine action at both fixtures with yesterdays deferred Lexus Chase once again taking pride of place and we will be siding with a long shot here 23.0 on the DAQ in the days feature. A recent dual point winner can land the hunter chase in the Limerick finale while a former Irish pointer can take the Grade 1 hurdle on an excellent Newbury card.

Once again we had more than our share of non runners yesterday on a generally disappointing day only Silver By Nature (14/1) who went down narrowly in the Welsh National and Noble Prince (10/3) filled the frame.

There is an early start today at the extended Leopardstown meeting but it could pay to play early as the ‘Shark’ Hanlon trained Western Leader looks the answer to the opening 2m 4f maiden hurdle at 11-50. This dual bumper winner has proved the epitome of consistency and the all way Limerick bumper scorer over 2m 3f will be suited by this step up in trip having never really been competitive in taking third money in a Gowran 2m maiden on his debut over ‘sticks’ over a fortnight ago behind stablemate Luska Lad. The 5yo attracted market support on that occasion and with Chris O’Farrell taking off 5lbs and granted a more positive ride the son of Stoway can account for another decent dual bumper winner in Lucky William who also has losses to recoup having failed by a length and a half to Magnanimity over the minimum trip at Navan over hurdles on his second start in this sphere. Charlie Swans three time bumper scorer Start Me Up went down to yesterdays disappointment Hugo De Vindecy on his hurdling bow at Punchestown over this trip and he can be expected to improve for the experience.

Finians Rainbow has always looked a horse of some promise since tipping up at the last in an Inch point earlier last year with victory assured and though the Nicky Henderson trained 6yo has only seen action twice in the interim he looks likely to maintain his unbeaten record on the track by landing the Grade 1 Challow hurdle at Newbury today at 2-05. Though his easy victories in a Kempton bumper and more recently in a Newbury 2m 1f novice hurdle were achieved on somewhat better ground he displayed on his only start ‘between the flags’ that more demanding ground would hold no fears for the son of Tiraaz. The step up to 2m 5f will be in favour of the lightly raced six year old and he can continue the great strike rate of his stable under Barry Geraghty here where the useful ex flat runner Manyriverstocross looks the main danger. The Alan king trained 4yo has landed two of his three hurdle starts, including a Grade 2 at Sandown over 2m 4f last time with his only defeat coming when failing to give 10lbs to Inventor at Ascot on good ground on penultimate start.

The 2m 6f hc chase at Limerick at 3-20 looks an ordinary affair on paper but id does offer the ‘Trixie’ Barry trained ex point to point winner Colls Corner a decent opportunity to open his chase account at the fifth time of asking. Winner of a couple of handicap hurdles (one over this track at 2m 5f) about a year ago the Johnny Allen ridden 6yo fell on his chase debut and has been given time to regain his confidence in a few efforts in the interim and though he has to shoulder 11-11 here he may just prove too strong for the gallant The Flying Dustman who has just been touched off in a couple of handicaps hurdles of late with the latest effort seeing the Michael Hourigan trained 10yo lose out narrowly to Monaco Springs over this trip two days ago.

Point to pointers take the stage in the concluding 2m 6f hunters chase and in a race where the three reserves look potential winners it could prove profitable to wait till declaration stage to see the likely line up. However the one that commands the vote is the lightly raced James Sheehan trained Proform Native following two snug vicries ‘between the flags’ at Glenbane and Avaune since returned from a near two years absence. The Mikey O’Connor ridden 7yo is a sound leaper who boasts experience in bumpers and hurdles – including a modest third in a Thurles hurdle over this trip on yielding to soft – and he has shown that he acts on this surface and he has the advantage of recent form against the likely danger Tullintain from the Robert Tyner yard – a three time point scorer who is making his seasonal debut. Willie Murphys 5 time winning mare Burnt Oil Babe is another to consider as the 6yo has scooted home in two starts against gelding and more recently against her own sex at Boulta.

12-00 NEWBURY – 2m 2 1/2f novice chase

A fascinating contest in prospect and a narrow vote is accorded to DAVE’S DREAM who gets the weight allowance from the Nicholls dual chase scorer Take The Breeze.

2-00 LEOPARDSTOWN – 2m Grade 1 Hurdle

Charles Byrnes Champion Hurdle contender SOLWHIT was somewhat disappointing in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle last time but the form was well advertised in the interim and he can get on track here. 

ADVICE
BET 5pt win (nap) WESTERN LEADER 11-50 Leopardstown
BET 1pt win (savers) LUCKY WILLIAM and START ME UP 11-50 Leopardstown
BET 5pt win FINIAN’S RAINBOW 2-05 Newbury
BET 2pt win (saver) MANYRIVERSTOCROSS 2-05 Newbury
BET 4pt win COLLS CORNER 3-20 Limerick
BET 2pt win (saver) THE FLYING DUSTMAN 3-20 Limerick
BET 5pt win PROFORM NATIVE 3-50 Limerick
BET 1pt win (savers) TULLINTAIN, SHAMROCK HALL and CASTLEVIEW MILLS 3-50 Limerick

 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Monday's Return was: LOSS 4.25 points

 

DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 28 December DAQMAN  14 WINNING BETS IN TWO DAYS: Daqman, the weekend wizard, has landed 14 winning bets over the Christmas period, including three doubles up yesterday, taking him to 109 wins in 28 days. He had 13 wins the previous weekend. THREE BIG-RACE WINS: Petit Robin (won 5-2) brought him his third holiday big-race success following Go Native and Kauto Star on Saturday. FOUR NAPS AND BANKERS UP: His best bet is now four in a row, with Petit Robin, the 5-2 nap yesterday, after Secretive, Cottage Star and Elegant Concorde (maximum-stakes banker). FIVE LAYS IN A ROW: His lays are on five in a row, after four out of four on Boxing Day. I’m betting on an Alan King revival in the Welsh National today, not with old stalwart Halcon Genelardais but with Old Benny. The race could hinge on the last two Scottish Nationals: Old Benny was only fourth in 2008 but now has his ground, which is against the winner that day, Iris De Balme. Gone To Lunch was the ‘moral’ in the Ayr race last year, giving lumps of weight to Hello Bud but he, too, has shown his best form on a sound surface. Le Beau Bai is on the upgrade and The Tother One is ‘expected’ but, with the blinkers back on, Old Benny is a jackpot bet at 19.5 on Betdaq, as I write. 2.00 Leopardstown (Christmas Hurdle): Young horses take this: the lone winner in the last decade over the age of eight was Limestone Lad and he beat just five others, with the only youngster of any note performing below par that day. Lie Forrit hasn’t stopped improving, though there’s not much substance to the form: three of the four placed behind him in two races in November had won at only class 3 and 4 level, and he has to improve again on different terrain. Home form, at Fairyhouse earlier this month, suggests that Ninetieth Minute and Healys Bar can reverse the placings with the winner that day, Oscar Dan Dan, but that was on heavy ground over half a mile shorter. They’re all solid on breeding, Healys Bar being out of an Over The River mare, Oscar Dan Dan being by Oscar out of a Phardante mare, and Ninetieth Minute supplied with stamina-packed genes via his ‘daddy’, Old Vic, and grandsire, Le Bavard. He has yet to try a 3-miler, though, and Oscar Dan Dan failed over the trip as a novice, whereas Healys Bar almost won one in the Spring when just collared by the The Midnight Club, who had recently finished third in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. Healys Bar has been overlooked today, just as when he ran well at Fairyhouse last time; Oliver McKiernan puts it like this in the Racing Post: ‘No one bar us expected him to do so.’ No hype for him, then - it’s all reserved for Lie Forrit – and, though he’s now weighted to finish in front of Oscar Dan Dan and Ninetieth Minute, they are 7.0 and 5.7 respectively, whereas Healys Bar is 23.0. Win or lose, that’s called value. 2.35 Leopardstown (Lexus Chase): Again the stats dictate a young horse will triumph: only when Beef Or Salmon completed back-to-back wins against four opponents has there been a winner aged over eight. Again, I can’t buy into the English form: Money Trix and Cloudy Lane have been largely racing against each other in very small fields, and ‘Voy Por’ is now a horse with nowhere to go except Aintree; elsewhere, he’ll always be meeting improving, young animals but he might just sneak one back there in the Spring: two of his last three wins were there, and all bar one success in three years has been in February, March and April. Paul Nicholls drops a big hint that Aintree is also the target for What A Friend: the trainer talks up the six-year-old’s Hennessy second to Denman – when he finished well through tired horses - but, secretly, he must have had to think long and hard about what to do with him, now that he has that albatross round his neck in full view of the handicapper. Meanwhile, taking on a field like this Lexus at ‘levels’ is equally likely to end in tears: he needs to have improved two stone since Cheltenham. Notre Pere seems already to have been found out at this level and Joncol rather than J’y Vole has emerged best of the younger generation, and ran well over 25f at Punchestown. Cooldine was the beaten odds-on favourite that day but didn’t look the same horse that had won the RSA Chase at Cheltenham (What A Friend 30 lengths down the field). Cooldine’s form is 1311 after a break, and Willie Mullins is just now emerging from a lean spell, rather like Alan King: it’s still a big ask but that’s why he’s a big price for what he’s done. 3.05 Leicester: King’s candidate, Sahrati, is second best here on Flat form and has a good enough mark for his first handicap; Synthe Davis has come up well the NH way but the value bet is Just Rob at 15.0 this morning. He goes well fresh, loves soft ground and drops into a class-3 handicap from Grade-1 level at Chepstow and Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle). Lindy Lou beat losers into the minor placings at Folkestone, and Keki Buku needs to brush up his jumping. 3.15 Wolverhampton: Mnasikia was the ‘wrong price’ at 6.8 this morning. I grabbed some win and place. Capricornus can be expected to improve for his debut run and Fusaichi Flyer was an eye-catcher last time but Mnasikia wasn’t ready on her first two starts and has been impressive on the Al Bahathri.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 4pts LIE FORRIT and WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 2pts win and 1pt place HEALYS BAR, with 1pt win (saver) NINETIETH MINUTE (2.00 Leopardstown) WIN-50 JACKPOT: 3pts win and 1pt place OLD BENNY, and 1pt win (sasver) LE BEAU BAI (2.10 Chepstow) LAY to win 6pts WHAT A FRIEND, and BET 4pts win JONCOL and 2pts win COOLDINE (2.35 Leopardstown) BET 8pts win (NH nap) SANG BLEU (2.45 Chepstow) BET 2pts win and place MNASIKIA (3.15 Wolverhampton) BET 6pts win BE THERE IN FIVE (3.20 Chepstow) BET 1pt win and place on each JUST ROB and SAHRATI, and 2pts win (saver) SYNTHE DAVIS (3.35 Leicester) BET 2pts win and place ROBIN DE VASSY and 2pts win (saver) LIVINONEDGE (3.50 Chepstow) BANKER 10pts win MIDNIGHT STRIDER (5.15 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Sang Bleu (2.45 Chepstow), Be There In Five (5.20 Chepstow) and Midnight Strider (5.15 Wolverhampton) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Monday's Return was: LOSS 22.25 points
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More

IRELAND'S EYE on Monday

Monday 28 December

IRELAND'S EYE

Day 3 of the Holiday period and with a top class meeting at Leopardstown and Chepstow while Limerick also provides a back up service in Ireland as does Leicester in England. At the time of writing there are doubts about both English meetings while the chase races at Limerick have now been abandoned. There could be plenty of value on the DAQ in siding with a big priced runner in the feature at Leopardstown today while an English challenger looks set to land the other Graded contest there.

Saver Beckett Rock (10/1) kept the ‘wolf from the door’ yesterday when landing the closing novice chase at Limerick and we did have another winner in The Hard Hat (2/1) in a maiden hurdle at Down Royal though we selected him for the bumper at Leopardstown. Top Twig (4/1) also finished in the money while two of our choices in the featured handicap chase at Leopardstown namely Paddy Pub (16/1) and the flattering Askthemaster (14/1) both ran well when just outside the placings.

The Grade 3 novice hurdle at Limerick today at 1-45 over 2m 6f looks tailor made for Jessica Harringtons 5yo French bred Hugo De Vindecy. Winner of a Fairyhouse bumper on his debut he ran some fine races in defeat in a bumper behind Sweeps Hill before failing to two near top sorts in Qualviro and the subsequent easy victor Quel Esprit over hurdles over 2m 4f before finally opening his account at the third attempt in snug fashion at Punchestown over two mile and four. With the step up in trip looking most likely to benefit this progressive sort the Adrian Leigh ridden gelding can account for the unbeaten Willie Mullins trained Enterprise Park while Denis Cullens Little Barney could make a bold bid from the front here to supplement his Naas 2m 3f maiden hurdle victory over yesterdays winner The Hard Hat.

With the two Graded contests on the Leopardstown hosting overseas challengers today the stage is set for a couple of interesting clashes and the Grade 2 hurdle over 3m at 2-00 could see a fascinating head to head between challenger Lie Forrit and home hope Ninetieth Minute. The former Willie Amos trained 5yo is proving a most progressive type who has won 4 of his six starts over flights to date and indeed he might also have scored at Aintree over 3m 1f but for jinking and unshipping at the second last whilst his hurdle debut saw him just lose out at Ayr. Though the son of Subtle Power invariably wins with little to spare he has shown fine battling qualities in taking a 3m 2f hc at Cheltenham before scoring a comfortable win (albeit by a length) at Newbury over 3m 1f on latest. The Cameron Gillies ridden raider will be suited by this better ground and he just gets the not to beat Tom Taaffes Ninetieth Minute – winner of the Coral Cup over 2m 5f last season and the four time hurdle winner looked most unfortunate to get just touched off by another of todays rivals the penalised Oscar Dan Dan over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse in a Grade 1 hurdle. The Old Vic 6yo though untried over this trip should be suited by the test but he and Paul Nolans Noble Prince may have to play the supporting role to the English raider here.

Feature event of the day and the 4 day fixture at Leopardstown is the Grade 1 Lexus Chase and what a contest it promises to be! The Irish challenge is headed by the progressive Joncol and last years Welsh Grand national winner Notre Pere but both would be suited by plenty more give underfoot and at the forecast prices do not represent that much value whilst the latter has questions to be answered following a dismal effort last time at Haydock. With Voy Por Ustedes having to prove his stamina and fellow English raider Money Trix another who would be suited by mores testing conditions the raiders best chance for success would seem to lie with Paul Nicholls What A Friend who ran a blinder when having to give best to Denman (gave 22lbs) in the Hennessy on just his fifth start over fences and his first handicap. He will be suited by trip/ground and merits maximum respect but we will ‘buck the trend’ and side with Dessie Hughes In Compliance who was once touted as a potential Gold Cup winner when trained by the now retired Michael O’Brien. The nine year old made a fine return from a lengthy absence when comfortably landing a Listed chase (2m 6f) at Thurles and though he has to find more than five lengths with Joncol on their running in the Grade 1 Durkan Chase over 2m 4f at Punchestown last time he can spring a surprise here on ground which should suit under Paddy Flood. Willie Mullins Cooldine – winner of the Sun Alliance chase may be suited by slower ground also and makes his seasonal debut here.
 
2-10 CHEPSTOW – 3m 5 1/2f hc chase

As usual a highly competitive renewal and our vote goes to the Irish challenger  OPERATION HOUDINI who is taken to account for the Lucinda Russell trained grey Silver By Nature and favourite Le Beau Bai.

3-10 LEOPARDSTOWN – 2m hc hurdle

With Edward O’Gradys stable in flying form there could be value in siding with their runner here COCKLESHELL ROAD under Andrew McNamara who may prove the answer at the expense of The Wandering Man and Dirar.

ADVICE
BET 5pt win (nap) HUGO DE VINDECY 1-45 Limerick
BET 1pt win (savers) ENTERPRISE PARK and LITTLE BARNEY 1-45 Limerick
BET 4pt win LIE FORRIT 2-00 Leopardstown
BET 2pt win (saver) NOBLE PRINCE 2-00 Leopardstown
BET 4pt win IN COMPLIANCE 2-35 Leopardstown
BET 2pt win (saver) WHAT A FRIEND 2-35 Leopardstown
BET 1pt win SILVER BY NATURE 2-10 Chepstow
ALREADY RECOMMENDED - BET 1pt win OPERATION HOUDINI Welsh Grand National - Chepstow

 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Monday's Return was: LOSS 4.25 points

 

IRELAND'S EYE on Sunday

Sunday 27 December

IRELAND'S EYE

Kempton keeps the flag flying for the jumping brigade in England today while in Ireland we have a treble header of meetings with Leopardstown and Limerick backed up by yesterdays deferred Maze card at Down Royal. A locally trained runner can cause an upset in the hunter chase at Down Royal while an attractive priced 8yo can land a handicap chase at Kempton.

With several runners scratched yesterday it ended up a quite day for the column with Well Regarded (14 morn-10/1) getting no run in the Leopardstown bumper but we dared to lay the brilliant Kauto Star in the King George. For shame!

Agus A Vic attempts to land the 2m 7f hunter chase on the Down Royal card for the second time when the 8yo lines up at the Northern venue at 3-00. A winner here in 2007 the Pat Martin trained gelding has established himself as one of Irelands top hunter chasers in latter times – scoring five times in all over fences and though he has disappointed on the big occasion (Cheltenham) on a couple of occasions he ran a fine race in defeat when just failing to catch one of the top English trained hunters in Baby Run (rec 4lbs) at Punchestown back in May in one of the Championship races on the Calendar over 3m 1f. However he may struggle to give 7lbs to the match fit David Christie trained Top Twig who admittedly failed to land a win in this sphere in ten attempts but he did finish runner up in four of these including a fair second to Having A Cut here over 2m 4f earlier this year. Nevertheless he just failed over this trip at Listowel in May and the 10yo is now arguably a better performer having accounted for such decent sorts as Kingscliff, Gaspara and Bally Wall ‘between the flags’ before just giving best to a somewhat surprise winner in Ehsan at Ballindenisk last time. The Derek O’Connor ridden gelding may have to give best however to the Ian Ferguson trained Simonsberg a three time point scorer who was impressive in landing a a Perth hunter chase over 2m 5f earlier this year on good ground. Though the 6yo wins have all come on yielding or better ground his earlier efforts in points on easier ground were quite promising and indeed he was only beaten some seven lengths by the progressive chaser Joncol when the Paul Nolan trained 4yo landed his maiden at Ballindenisk. Though he has not been seen since exiting when going well in one of the British finale hunter chases (John Corbet Cup) at Stratford over 3m 4f the 7lb claiming Nick Pearce ridden gelding looks the most progressive in this line up and just warrants the vote here.

Lodge Lane has always looked a decent horse on his day and the Victor Dartnall trained 8yo just gets the vote off top weight under 7lb claimer Josh Guerriero to land an open looking 3m hc chase at Kempton this afternoon at 3-15. Though he has failed to add to his debut novice chase victory over Wichita Lineman at Exeter over this trip over a year ago he should have collected in a Cheltenham novice event over 3m 2f subsequently but for falling at the last. Though his recent handicap debut proved fruitless as he was hampered when unshipping todays pilot at the fourth at Chepstow he should be given another chance here over a trip which suits and the Norwich gelding handles all types of surfaces. He could have most to fear from the front running ex Irish maiden pointer Little Josh who had a confidence boosting and snug win at Kelso over 2m 1f – though the lightly raced 7yo has to prove himself over the trip. The main danger may come from the dual course and distance winner Or Jaune who has been disappointing of late and he would have to improve on his seasonal debut which saw him finish last of the finishers in a Listed 3m 1f chase at Sandown.

There is a veritable feat of racing today on day 2 of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival but we will wait till the final race for our best bet of the day here where the once raced The Hard Hat can land the 2m 4f bumper (3-40) for the Colm Murphy yard – assuming he takes his chance as he is also declared at Down Royal. The son of Beneficial shaped with plenty of promise when staying on to take second to Little Barney in a competitive Naas 2m 3f maiden hurdle earlier this month when going off at generous odds. However the five year old will start at shorter odds to land this contest but the 7lb claiming Michael Fogarty ridden gelding will be suited by this test and can land the spoils for Colm Murphy from the ex pointer Some Target representing the Willie Mullins yard. Third in an Athlacca point the Witness Box 5yo was far from disgraced when going down by an admittedly flattering length to the subsequent hurdle winner and potentially useful Thegreatjohnbrowne in a heavy ground Naas bumper over the minimum trip almost a month ago.

The finale on the Limerick card today is a 2m 6f novice chase at 3-50 and it looks an interesting contest with a handful of probable winners in the line up. As a former point to point winner and the highest rated of these over hurdles the vote goes to the ex Gerry Cully trained The Midnight Club who was far from disgraced (as far as we could see!) at a foggy Fairyhouse a month ago when he finished less than ten lengths behind the near all the way winner East Beach over 2m 5f on his chase debut under todays 3lb claimer Emmet Mullins. The lightly raced 8yo has recorded a bumper and three hurdle wins since joining the Willie Mullins yard showing an aptitude for soft and heavy ground and scored an easy win over two miles and five at this venue over hurdles from one of todays rivals Lurgan (gave 5lbs) a year ago. That rival has run reasonably well in three efforts over fences to date but though he has placed prospects he may again have to give best to the selection while Francis Floods Prudent Honour is another possibility on his third start over the major obstacles having shown improved form when chasing home the useful Clan Tara at Fairyhouse over 2m 5f over a fortnight ago. The two who can pose the main danger to the Mullins runner are Mouse Morris’s Beckett Rock and Margaret O’Sullivans Indifference Curve however. The first named – a hurdle winner finished runner up to Hangover on his penultimate run over fences over this trip at Thurles and the 5yo was far from disgraced in taking third over 2f less at Punchestown on his final foray earlier this month. Winner of a Carrigtwohill point almost three years ago the 7yo has not really fulfilled that earlier promise but the hurdle scorer does boast experience over fences and was placed on his first couple of starts in this code (including a fair second to Garryowen Star here over 2m 4f) and his recent seasonal debut effort in taking a fair fifth behind Tinakellylad at Clonmel over two and a half miles was reasonably encouraging.

1-55 LEOPARDSTOWN – 2m Grade 1 Hurdle
Though JUDGE ROY BEAN used to prove good lay material in the past the Edward O’Grady trained 6yo has developed something of a harder centre of late and though he failed to justify favouritism at Navan over 2m 4f last time the drop back in trip could suit the 6yo and he is taken to beat the unbeaten Fionnegas and favourite Some Present here.

3-20 LIMERICK 2m 3 1/2f hc chase
Conor O’Dwyers seasonly named HANGOVER can land this contest and maintain his 100% record at the venue (scored maiden and handicap hurdle wins here over 2m) under 3lb claimer Nicky O’Shea on his fourth chase start and first handicap at the expense of the Jimmy Mangan trained Whinstone Boy and Larkwing.

ADVICE
BET 4pt win (saver) SIMONSBERG 3-00 Down Royal
BET 2pt win (saver) TOP TWIG 3-00 Down Royal
BET 4pt win LODGE LANE 3-15 Kempton
BET 2pt win (saver) OR JAUNE 3-15 Kempton
BET 4pt win THE HARD HAT 3-40 Leopardstown
BET 2pt win (saver) SOME TARGET 3-40 Leopardstown
BET 5pt win (nap) THE MIDNIGHT CLUB 3-50 Limerick
BET 2pt/1pt win (savers) BECKETT ROCK and INDIFFERENCE CURVE 3-50 Limerick

ALREADY RECOMMENDED:
BET 1pt wins HOOPY, GLENQUEST, PADDY PUB and ASKTHEMASTER – Leopardstown Sunday 3-05

 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Monday's Return was: LOSS 4.25 points

 

DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 27 December DAQMAN  103 WINNERS IN 27 DAYS: Daqman secured his third-fastest century with eight winning bets on Boxing Day, taking his total in the last 27 days to 103. CRACKING BINOCULAR DOUBLE WHAMMY: He laid Binocular (only third at 11-8 favourite) in the Christmas Hurdle in favour of Go Native (won 5-2). BANKER AND BIG-RACE DOUBLE: His banker of the day was the gamble, Elegant Concorde (won 8-11), his sole bet in Ireland, which he doubled with King George record-breaker Kauto Star (won 8-13). FOUR LAYS UP OUT OF FOUR: As well as Binocular, Daqman also laid Pride In Battle (3rd 4-1), Robin Will (pulled up 11-4) and The Hairy Lemon (3rd 4-1). How long before the Kauto Star Chase replaces today’s Desert Orchid race at Kempton? The answer, by the way he won yesterday, is at least three more years after two more King Georges. Today’s race reveals the versatility of both these great horses, in that it is run over two miles; for champion chasers also to be King George winners and Gold Cup heroes speaks volumes for their place in history. With ‘ordinary’ winners of these races, we don’t expect them to cope with the different distance disciplines. Nicky Henderson came out of Kempton yesterday with a potential future champion, Long Run: but the French import’s fencing worried me; he got very low on occasions and didn’t bend his back. I kept thinking: if you do that at Cheltenham, there is no long run for your career! Henderson looks set for the Desert Orchid bouquet today via Petit Robin: I can tell you that he has been exceptional in his work at home, goes well fresh and gets the strong gallop he needs from Fix The Rib. Well Chief is always best first time back and Crack Away Jack is short on experience over fences. Petit Robin is an example of that ‘ordinary’, though high class, horse who needs a particular distance in particular conditions: his third in the Champion Chase showed him to be just outstayed on the Cheltenham hill and this flat track is perfect for him. 1.00 Kempton: Like Long Run, Mille Chief came from France with a tall reputation but was brought down on his UK debut. The Alan King camp insists that this is their Triumph Hurdle winner. Westlin Winds has done nothing wrong and his form has been franked but, even without a seemingly strong opponent, novices always find it hard to concede penalties – 10lb here – to the hidden talent in races like this. Mille Chief should win with this 10-lengths start. 1.25 Leopardstown: Forpadydeplasterer is too often the bridesmaid, albeit against the likes of Twist Magic. ‘Specialist two-miler who has his conditions’ is how he’s being billed, as paper favourite for this. But I believe that Tranquil Sea and Golden Silver have improved past him. Tranquil Sea was always in control of a decent field in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham and misses the Lexus for thus. Golden Silver beat Forpadydeplasterer in the Leopardstown version of the Arkle. The question mark over Golden Silver is whether the ground is soft enough; over Tranquil Sea, whether the trip is far enough. But two onto one? Granted a decent pace from Carthalawn and Watson Lake, it should be true-run, no prisoners taken. 1.30 Kempton: There’s another Kempton match here between El Dancer and Riverside Theatre, who were dead level (OR 145) over hurdles, 8lb and more ahead of anything else in this field. El Dancer is expected to improve but ‘Theatre’ brought the house down with a brutally impressive performance at Newbury and looks like another young Henderson chaser going places. 1.55 Leopardstown: There’s another bridesmaid here; Some Present’s having to give best to Dunguib was understandable but he also found Sweeps Hill and Loosen My Load too much to handle. Like Forpadydeplaster, things may go right for him today and he may win but, as a punter, you are not in the business of piling up excuses for a horse and then taking the same short price; you need better than the 2.51 I see about Some Present this morning. Some Present certainly seemed to turn around Punchestown form with Sweeps Hill at Fairyhouse but the ground was a bog that day, and Judge Roy bean is back to his best trip. However, I’m getting strong vibes for Fionnegas, and he’s been well backed this morning. He’s been brought along slowly but has already proved versatile, coming from off the pace or leading in a 2m bumper or a 2m 4f hurdle. I think that, in him, Ruby Walsh has the ammunition to catch out Some Present for his lack of finish. 2.05 Kempton: The form of Quaspia’s Plumpton and Newbury efforts last season suggests she’s well in here; the mare has a featherweight against the fancied horses. 2.40 Kempton: Petit Robin is no Desert Orchid or Kauto Star. If there is one with that potential today, and I have to pick it now, it would have to be Tranquil Sea. 3.05 Leopardstown (Paddy Power Chase): Reading between the lines, Dooneys Gate and Hoopy have been laid out for this, at the right spot in the handicap, and I shall go for a split-stakes jackpot at 10.0 and 17.0 this morning on Betdaq.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 6pts FORPADYDEPLASTER and 6pts win TRANQUIL SEA (1.25 Leopardstown) BET 6pts win FIONNEGAS, and 3pts win (saver) SOME PRESENT (1.55 Leopardstown) BET 2pts win and place QUASPIA (2.05 Kempton) BET 8pts win (nap) PETIT ROBIN (2.40 Kempton) WIN-50 JACKPOT BETS: 5pts win and 2pts place DOONEYS GATE plus 3pts win and and 1pt place HOOPY (3.05 Leopardstown) DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles Mille Chief (1.00 Kempton) with Tranquil Sea (1.25 Leopardstown), Riverside Theatre (1.30 Kempton) and Petit Robin (2.40 Kempton) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Monday's Return was: LOSS 22.25 points
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