DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 5 December DAQMAN  63 POINTS PROFIT YESTERDAY: Red-hot Daqman romped through yesterday’s cards with win after win for a profit of more than 63 points. 46 WINNING BETS IN EIGHT DAYS:  He landed six more winning bets to take his total to 46 in eight days. His ‘fastest 50’ record is 11 days. 14-1 AND 9-2 WINNERS: His winners included Anne Of Kiev (won 14-1) on AW and Royal Charm (won 9-2) over jumps. 10 LAYS UP OUT OF 11: He bagged three lays out of three to bring his current score to 10 from 11 (a 91% strike rate). Only a handful of runners in the big Sandown race on heavy ground but it’s still got the tingle. And whose head is on the block of four last-time winners in the Henry V111 novices’ chase? 12.30 Chepstow: Sherwani Wolf has schooled well and is expected to make a winning debut over hurdles. An expensive buy at £135,000, and has really excited connections. Full Of Joy (3.40) looks another banker at the meeting. 12.55 Sandown: Chasers trying to get their acts together and others who plough this series because there’s nowhere else for them. But it just doesn’t work that way - there’s been no winner over the age of seven this century – and the bottom one is 7lb out of the handicap. Silk Affair needed her run back and, as a Barathea, and a winner up the hill at Towcester on the heavy, I can’t imagine there’s a problem with either ground or stamina, and the stable is in form. My hungry mouse grabbed 12.0 on Betdaq this morning just as money piled up for Nycteos; I was glad to ease the pressure on him at 4.0, as he always gets behind and will trade better in-running. Lay and bet. 1.25 Sandown: Tony McCoy rode Master Of The Hall when he was beaten favourite last time out and he can’t see him winning this. Sonowyouno! 1.40 Wetherby: You need a young horse below 11st and last year’s winner, Terenzium, has managed everything in his favour: the ground, a rating only 3lb higher and his stable’s hot form. All suggest he has every chance of doing the double. 1.55 Sandown (Henry V111 Novices’ Chase): Paul Nicholls wants more rain for Tchico Polos! That’s really an admission that all he does is stay. But, if they allow him a clear lead, that may be all he needs to do in a race in which tactics could win the day. Nicky Henderson wants the handicapper’s head examining: that’s really an admission that he’s exposed First Point and has to restrict him to conditions races. Will ‘Jack’ crack on the ground? The Champion Hurdle fourth is the class act here, but Somersby earned that epithet over fences with a fine performance first time, and his Cheltenham Festival third to Go Native now looks as good, if not better than, Crack Away Jack’s proximity to Binocular in the Champion. 2.25 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase): Well Chief had his day at Cheltenham, with the perennial bridesmaid, Mahogany Blaze, too close to make the form worth a Tingle Creek. Well Chief hasn’t put back-to-back wins together since 2007, the year he won this race. On his last two runs alone, Twist Magic, going for a Paul Nicholls five-timer, is a stone and more better horse than Mahogany Blaze. That makes him half a stone better than Master Minded, who beat Big Zeb at Cheltenham and at Punchestown. Snag is you don’t always see that particular Twist Magic. You might see the one that weakened quickly, and fell, behind all four of the above in the Champion Chase, or the one that was reluctant to line up last Christmas. Quirky so-and-so. But Paul Nicholls is confident that he knows the Arkle winner, Forpadydeplaster, through the form with his Down Royal conqueror, Herecomesthetruth. It’s a valid point and Barry Geraghty prefers Big Zeb to ‘Pady’, despite ground worries and occasional lapses with his jumping. So it’s a Magic day. If he wants it. 3.00 Sandown: Even without taking today’s heavy ground into consideration, it’s been impossible to carry 11st or more to win this. The paper favourite Overstrand hasn’t been able to put two races together since he won this in 2006. Lay him and go quickly down to the bottom five. Gaspara has her ground and will try haring off and slipping the pack, but the unexposed horse is clearly William Hogarth (6.8 on the Daq, as I write), six years the favourite’s junior and with both trainer and jockey confident he’ll go in the ground. 3.05 Chepstow: Horses aged six and seven are nine out of 10 in this, with 70% of winners below the 11st barrier: both these stats are a knock on the head for Cross Kennon. So is a 10lb rise. Lay. The unexposed horse this time is King Of Castile, who has always worked and raced as though needing this trip: last year’s winning trainer has added a tongue-tie and cheekpieces to help underrated rider Paul Moloney. Yet he was still 13.0 on the Daq this morning. 3.30 Sandown (the London National): I said yesterday that there are two Nationals this weekend, but I’d missed this one, and it could be the best: it’s hard to leave any horse out, on form or stats, though Rambling Minster has a tough task giving weight all round in the mud. It’s Kilbeggan Blade’s ground, and he’s made this race his own, all set up for the hat-trick here but with some tough opposition. I declared Russian Trigger my National horse but, though I know he’s a big, stuffy sort, I was alarmed by his slow jumping at Cheltenham; oddly – or significantly – his poor hurdling cost him his chance in the Pertemps Final on the same course in March 2008. The Dartnall team in top form, and Russian Trigger has been schooled intensively since Cheltenham: each-way at 8.3 the win.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and 1pt place SILK AFFAIR (12.55 Sandown) BET 8pts win (nap) SONOWYOUNO (1.25 Sandown) BET 2pts win and place TERENZIUM (1.40 Wetherby) BET 5pts win SOMERSBY (1.55 Sandown) BET 5pts win TWIST MAGIC (2.25 Sandown) LAY to win 6pts OVERSTRAND, plus 2pts win and place WILLIAM HOGARTH and 1pt win and place GASPARA (3.00 Sandown) LAY 6pts win CROSS KENNON, and 1pt win and place KING OF CASTILE (3.05 Chepstow) BET 2pts win and place RUSSIAN TRIGGER (3.30 Sandown) DAQ MULTIPLES:  6 x 1pt win doubles Sherwani Wolf (12.30 Chepstow), Brigadoon (12.50 Southwell), Sonowyouno (1.25 Sandown) and Full Of Joy (3.40 Chepstow) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Friday's Return was: PROFIT 63 points
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