DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 4 December DAQMAN  40 WINNING BETS IN A WEEK: Daqman’s bubble burst yesterday when hot favourites, Master Overseer and Bay Cherry, won at diminished returns, or lost the plot like Prohibition. But he still managed three wins to take his score to a fabulous 40 in seven days. NECK ON THE LINE: As ever when he’s on a massive run, he goes for a plunge bet, but his banker, the 9-2 shot Aux Le Bahnn, just failed to get up. Everything hinged on that bet, as he had laid the winner and third. The first three were separated by a neck and the same. 59 OUT OF 73 LAYS:  So, with one up and one down, his lays tally is now 59 from the last 73, so he remains just above the 80% mark. Overall, he’s won 313 from 403 for a profit of £17,880 to £100 stakes. GHeavy ground is certain for the next three days, and you wouldn’t want to run a Grand National in this mud. Well, that’s what they’re doing, in local terms, at Exeter today – the Devon Marathon (2.10) – and at Kelso on Sunday with the Scottish Borders National. I should have drawn my horns in yesterday, after all my preaching earlier in the week about betting to the conditions, but I played up my winning streak, and we’ll get some of the money back on Aux Le Bahnn next time out, if he runs too quickly; that would make him an automatic lay. I’m making the Devon Marathon my own today: I’m reducing my stakes but repeating yesterday’s plan of two lays to pay for my win bets in the race. Wish me luck? Yes, I need some in a marathon, but mostly I need the horses to perform to type as follows: The ‘bounce’ factor could stop Shaka’s Pearl: his form suggests he’s a ‘glass’ horse who doesn’t stand much training and, though he had his field strung out at Fontwell, that was on much better ground. There’s been no winner of the race with top-weight on heavy; yes, they’re claiming against Supreme Keano but U-PU ‘figures’ don’t inspire. Peut Etre Sivola’s had two hard races and is up in the weights to a position where, on the book, he can’t beat either Go West or Notabotheronme; yet he’s trading favourite. Dancing Mist has a ‘trainer states’ (better suited by faster ground) which seemingly rules him out of this; yet he is second favourite. We all know Victory Gunner’s target is Market Rasen on Boxing Day (don’t we?); I can’t fancy the front-runners, Zimbabwe (well out of the handicap) and Newbay Bob; Present M’Lord is still high in the ratings; and Lavenoak Lad’s stable is out of form. That leaves me dutching Notabotheronme (‘he’s always wanted a test like this’) and Go West (‘the four miles should be right up his street’) with form on soft and heavy and trainer quotes in the Racing Post that belie their odds of 9.4 and 10.5 respectively on Betdaq this morning. Paul Nicholls is having a poke at two hot-pots, and the Betdaq offers as I write suggest I can tilt with him at the windmills, James De Vassy (1.00) and Bensalem (1.35). But Nicholls is no Don Quixote, not champion trainer for nothing: Royal Charm is very highly regarded in his yard and Take The Breeze suggested on his chase debut that he could turn around the hurdles ratings with Bensalem. It’s good sport – better than Sandown – and I could get 5-2 each of the two Nicholls’ challengers, backing them to a fixed profit yield, as though dutching: six points on each. Nicholls relies on Harry Skelton and Christian Williams at Exeter, which doesn’t put me off, and deploys Ruby Walsh to Sandown, where the number of runners all day wouldn’t fill a divided maiden on the Flat at Nottingham. But at least we get progress reports on Rivaliste and Tatenen as they, seemingly, take small steps as the races go but big steps in potential improvement before Cheltenham. But that hungry hero, Tony McCoy - should take the opener on class act Evening Sunset (12.50) – could upset the Tatenen (2.35) Future Stars test, if my man in the long grass has got it right; he says that McCoy’s on the right Nicholls runner, Kicks For Free. Or Jaune has been freshened up and, though he was capable of fourth in a good Ascot handicap, the race conditions favour Seven Is My Number and tilt the race fractionally in his favour on the ratings. All depends which one of the quartet acts best on the ground. I’ll just watch, with future betting in mind. Rivaliste (1.25) is still only four - none of that age has won this race – and his problem here is the plethora of front-runners: Captain Americo, Cockatoo, Latanier and, of course, Rivaliste himself, have all led or disputed the lead in races this month. This is also two furlongs further than he’s traveled before. Another watching brief. And, with the diminished field, it remains to be seen whether the grade-2 novice hurdle is the stepping-stone it was for Whats Up Boys, Inglis Drever, Ladalko and Neptune Collonges in previous years. Alan King, whose stable form may just now be turning the corner, is bullish about Manyriverstocross – extra distance and soft ground will suit – but the top bumper horse Frascati Park has come on a lot from his last run and is ‘expected’, according to my man. With the Nicholls’ Kayf Tara gelding Like Minded splitting the two in a market, where the front three add up to well over 100%, I’m sitting this one out, too. At Lingfield, my nap of the day is Fashion Insider (1.15), who has improved no end since a promising Newmarket debut; this one cost connections a fortune and they are anxious to know more about what they’ve got. Brian Meehan had two winners from three runners in five days at the turn of the month and it’s 10-1 bar one this morning, apart from a few takers for Henry Cecil’s Kleio, but with no encouragement from my man at Warren Place. As I’ve said recently – and successfully bet on it in this column – horses drawn high in Wolverhampton sprints (9.20) may as well stay in the box. So I’m opposing paper favourite, Perlachy (stall 12), beaten by Caldeonia Princess last time she dropped back to this trip. Caledonia Princess could play up her winnings but the one I like is Anne Of Kiev, who was acey-deucey before her break, and could be ready to return to form after her run back last month. Lady Of Akita (7.00) has come on enough to take her maiden and make up my Daq Multiples with Evening Sunset and Fashion Insider.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win on each ROYAL CHARM (1.00) and TAKE THE BREEZE (1.35), both at Exeter. BET 8pts win (nap) FASHION INSIDER (1.15 Lingfield) LAY to win 3pts on each DANCING MIST and PEUT ETRE SIVOLA, and BET 2pts win and 1pt place on each GO WEST and NOTABOTHERONME (2.10 Exeter) LAY to win 3pts PERLACHY, plus 2pts win and 1pt place ANNE OF KIEV (9.20 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Evening Sunset (12.50 Sandown) with Fashion Insider (1.15 Lingfield) and Lady Of Akita (7.20 Wolverhampton We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Thursday's Return was: LOSS 34.09 points
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