Wednesday 11 November
IRELAND'S EYE
Bangor is the featured meeting today over jumps but there is also a fine card over ‘sticks’ at Warwick. Dundalk take centre stage in Ireland tonight where Johnny Murtagh will be hoping to consolidate his position at the top of the jockeys championship. BETDAQ are the major sponsor at Southwell today on the all weather. We have a few value bets over jumps today where a bumper winner can land a novice hurdle at Warwick while a former pointer could be on the mark for Nicky Henderson in the opener at Bangor.
The Minack (10/11 morn-4/9) proved our sole winner on Tuesday while we did land two short priced winners in our BETDAQ MULTIBET when Inchidaly Rock (8/11-8/13) and The Minack both delivered.
Paul Nicholls dual bumper winner Massasoit will start at short enough odds to make a winning bow over fences in the opening 2m 4 1/2f novice chase at Bangor at 1-10 today. The lightly raced Supreme Leader 7yo is the highest rated of this field judged on hurdle ratings following an impressive success in an Aintree soft ground 2m 4f novice hurdle over more fancied rivals on his second start over sticks but his subsequent efforts were somewhat disappointing however. Though he has had a breathing operation in the interim the Ruby Walsh ridden gelding does not rate value at the forecast odds and instead we will give the vote to the former Irish point winner Burton Port from the Nicky Henderson yard. Though the Bob Back 5yo is rated 6lbs inferior to the Nicholls runner the hurdle and bumper winner (both over 2m 1f at Hereford) he has always shaped as if he would be suited by the step up in trip and his subsequent placed efforts – especially his last two in a Grade 3 and competitive handicap on good ground over 2m 4f saw him run well in defeat. Softer ground and experience ‘between the flags’ may swing the issue in favour of the Andrew Tinkler ridden gelding on his chase debut.
The 3m ½f handicap chase at Bangor at 2-10 looks an interesting betting race and though it looks quite competitive we will be going with That’s Rhythm and Nicto De Beauchene against the field here. The first named from the Martin Todhunter yard boasts an easy win over course and distance here on his penultimate start in March on good ground before taking a hefty fall when quietly fancied in the Scottish Grand National. The lightly raced 9yo has had plenty of time to overcome that experience and though the Graham Lee ridden gelding has not raced that often on a softer surface the Pistolet Bleu offspring should have little trouble in handling the surface and he is given the verdict to beat the Alner trained French bred Nicto De Beauchene a dual handicap chase victor at Wincanton (3m 2f) and Uttoxeter over three miles. Though the more experienced 8yo is now 9lbs higher in the weights he can still prove competitive and should run a big race on his seasonal debut.
The 2m 5f novice hurdle at Warwick today at 1-50 looks quite open on paper and there are several who merit consideration in the line up. Nicky Hendersons once raced but snug Huntingdon bumper winning mare Topsham Belle (admittedly a modest race) heads the list of possibles while A French Horse boasts decent placed form over hurdles but has been found wanting in the closing stages a coment which also applies to the twice raced Paul Nicholls Play On Words who has finished ‘in the money’ when going off at shorter odds in a couple of bumpers. Winning form is often the key to these races and the one that gets the nod on that ground is Suzy Smiths Cavingdon who just got up to land a Chepstow bumper on just his third start and the 5yo will be ideally suited by this step up in trip under Colin Bolger. Perhaps the one for the forecast is the Emma Lavelle trained Global Warming who has hinted at ability on a couple of bumper starts and with his stable making a decent start to the campaign the 5yo warrants a small wager.
Johnny Murtagh is making a determined effort to regain his riders title from Pat Smullen and he can ‘bag’ another valuable winner in the shape of the lightly raced Peter Casey trained mare Inch Rebel in the 1m 4f hc at Dundalk tonight. The Bob Back 6yo mare showed her versatility by making most to land her second win over this surface and track less than a fortnight ago over 1m 3f having pounced late to score in a bumper on just her second start last year. Though she is now 12lbs higher for her most recent win she can main her 100% record at theis venue here at the expense of the Halford runner Balakan who also boasts a course success but is returning from an absence.
1-20 WARWICK 2m 4 1/2f hc chase
Quite an open affair but the former Laurencetown point winner BOBBY DONALD gets a narrow vote at the odds to beat the Noel Chance trained Obelix De Longechaux.
1-40 BANGOR 2m 1f 110yds chase
Nicholls and Walsh can continue the good form shown yesterday at Exeter (3 from 3) by landing this contest with the free running FREE WORLD who can show the benefit of a close season wind operation and he can make the most of the 3lbs he receives from obvious danger Doctor David.
ADVICE
BET 4pt win (nap) BURTON PORT 1-10 Bangor
BET 2pt win (saver) MASSASOIT 1-10 Bangor
BET 4pt win CAVINGDON 1-50 Warwick
BET 1pt win (savers) GLOBAL WARMING and TOPSHAM BELLE 1-50 Warwick
BET 3pt win THAT’S RHYTHM 2-10 Bangor
BET 2pt win (saver) NICTO DE BEAUCHENE 2-10 Bangor
BET 3pt win INCH REBEL 9-00 Dundalk
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.
Monday's Return was: LOSS 8.34 points
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