Saturday 7 November
IRELAND'S EYE
With Johnny Murtagh at the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita Pat Smullen gets a fine opportunity to further close the gap on his main rival at Dundalk tonight. Meanwhile in Ireland there is a strong English challenge for the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Dundalk but Noel Meade and Paul Carberry can see that the prize stays at home. On a day where we are ‘spoilt for choice’ there are fine meetings at Wincanton where Ruby Walsh has a full book of rides for the Nicholls yard and in addition there are jump cards at Kelso and Sandown.
Yesterday proved far from a profitable day with just Rossdara (5/2-9/4) and Lurgan (4/1) taking some of the placed money and despite the fact that our supplementary bets featured wins for the impressive Voler La Vedette (7/4-5/4) in addition to Drumbaloo (3-11/4) it was basically a day to forget.
The opening novice hurdle over an extended 2m 6f at Kelso at 12-15 this afternoon sees the lightly raced and seemingly late progressing Heez A Steel chasing a hat trick over hurdles following his good course and distance success here some five weeks ago. With his usual 7lb claimer on board again the 8yo should go close here on a track where he usually wells but the 130 rated hurdler could just fail to give the bones of a stone or more to his rivals here. The two that could be worth supporting are the former Denis Ahern trained point winning 4yo Milans Man who showed a liking for a demanding surface when romping away with an average contest at Cahergal in April on his second start. Now with the Howard Johnson team the Brian Hughes ridden youngster could go well here but we will just give the vote to the lightly raced 7yo maiden and Ewart trained Sirkeel who has finished runner up twice at this track over differing trips and grounds and though he disappointed when installed favourite at Hexham on firm ground over three miles when last seen over 7 months ago he can spring a mild surprise here under 5lb claimer Harry Haynes at the expense of Heez A Steel and Milans Man.
Jim Dreapers mud loving Notre Pere boasts the highest rating in the featured Champion Chase at Down Royal over 3 miles at 2-30 and the Andrew Lynch ridden 8yo deserves to start favourite for the Grade 1 contest. However the highly progressive chaser tends to need his first outing of the season in the main and last years Welsh National and Guinness Gold Cup victor may be vulnerable here as he could only finish a modest fourth to Noland in a Grade 3 chase over admittedly an inadequate 2m 4f at the corresponding meeting last term. In what looks an open contest where Paul Nicholls is represented by Aintree Grand National third My Will and the Tizzard team back up a strong overseas challenge with the gutsy Joe Lively but the former has not scored for some three years while the latter has scored all his career wins bar one on left handed tracks. The front running The Listener makes up the rest of the English challenge but the 10yo seems to have lost his way of late and he has not had much luck in this race in the past. Former Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition was just touched off by Beef Or Salmon in this race in 2006 and though he looks assured to build on his recent second to The Fonze in a Grade 2 chase at Gowran five weeks ago he does not quite look the force of old. The vote goes to the Noel Meade trained Casey Jones who won his maiden hurdle here over 2m 6f on yielding to soft in 2006 and the 8yo is a decent sort on his day as evidenced by his all the way victory in a fast run Grade 3 at Punchestown on good to yielding over three weeks ago over 3m 1f. Paul Carberrys mount will relish the softer ground and has the benefit of match fitness and he can account for Joe Lively and War Of Attrition.
It can often pay to side with course form and particularly course and distance form in trappy handicaps and we will do just that when nominating the Robert Buckler trained bottom weight River Indus to land the extended 3m handicap at Sandown at 3-20. The 9yo made all to score here almost a year ago on good to soft from the subsequent scorer Jim Bobs Girl and he is now just 3lbs higher in the ratings here on his second start of the current season. On paper he has something to find with David Bridgwaters ex pointer and dual chase scorer Runshan who finished two placings and nine lengths ahead of the selection at Cheltenham over three weeks ago. The form of that contest was boosted by success for the fourth placed Skipper’s Lad in the interim. Runshan has been running consistently well of late but he has shown his best form going left handed however and a bigger threat to the selection may come from former point winner Any Currency on just his third chase start and first handicap for the Michael Keightley yard. Though the 6yo failed to make the breakthrough over hurdles he did nevertheless go down to some useful sorts and though he has to give 17lbs to the selection he could go close on the form of his second (well held) to the useful Pride Of Dulcote at Worcester over 2m 7f seventeen days ago.
Simon Bolivar can hardly be described as one of the stable stars in the Dermot Weld yard but the son of Konigstiger is worth a small wager to land the 7f nursery at Dundalk tonight at 8-00 and in the process give Pat Smullen another win in his quest to retain his Irish jockeys title. Admittedly the youngster disappointed when fancied ‘at the books’ at Galway on his second start and though he was not disgraced in taking a fair fourth at Tipperary on heavy subsequently he did ‘bomb out’ when fitted with blinkers last time. In the hope that he takes to this surface he is given the vote to land what looks like a modest contest.
1-15 WINCANTON – 2m 5f hc chase
Six year old THE WEDDING HORSE ran out a ready scorer of a Kirkistown point to point from a subsequent scorer last year and though the Corrouge gelding has only shown a fair level of form in three efforts over jumps he could prove more competitive as a chaser though his stable have been quiet as regards runners this season to date.
3-50 SANDOWN – 2m 110yds bumper
Two ex Pat Doyle trained Irish point winners in Wayward Prince and Master Of The Hall who ran out good winners of Carrigtwohill and Dromahane maidens last season represent trainers Ian Williams and Nicky Henderson here but it is the ex Michael Butler trained Kilmallock point winner REB REBELLION who gets the vote in an open contest on his debut for the Charlie Mann yard with Noel Fehily in the plate.
4-00 WINCANTON – 2m bumper
VALENTINE VIC looked one of the better sorts to strut their stuff ‘between the flags’ in Ireland last season and the dual point winner looked above average and he is taken to justify short priced favouritism here for Nicholls and Walsh in what looks to be a relatively weak contest.
ADVICE
BET 3pt win SIRKEEL 12-15 Kelso
BET lay HEEZ A STEEL to win 5pt 12-15 Kelso
BET 1pt win/place MILANS MAN 12-15 Kelso
BET 5pt win (nap) CASEY JONES 2-30 Down Royal
BET 1pt (saver) JOE LIVELY and WAR OF ATTRITION 2-30 Down Royal
BET 4pt win RIVER INDUS 3-20 Sandown
BET 2pt win/1pt win (savers) ANY CURRENCY and RUNSHAN 3-20 Sandown
BET 3pt win SIMON BOLIVAR 8-00 Dundalk
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.
Friday's Return was: LOSS 22 points
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