Monday 9 November
IRELAND'S EYE
It's a busy Monday with Limerick flying the flag in Ireland and Carlisle and Southwell in England and there could be some value in siding with 3 former pointers in chases at Limerick and Carlisle while a Park debutant pointer can land a novice at Southwell for the Mann yard.
Nap Paddy Pub (7/4-13/8) duly landed the odds in a Limerick hc chase yesterday while we had the one-two in the opening maiden hurdle at Navan with our saver Ballymak (11/2-4/1) beating our main selection Puyol (5/1). Noble Prince (7/4-5/4) could only finish a modest runner up in the feature on the Navan card where our saver Oscar Dan Dan (5/2-9/4) exited at the last when still in with some chance while our saver Bellflower Boy (8/1) stayed on to take third at Limerick.
The Edward O’Grady yard are currently in fine form and the Tipperary handler looks to have decent prospects of adding to his seasonal tally with the Ballinrobe bumper winner Rigour Back Bob in the 4yo maiden hurdle at Limerick at 1-30 over the minimum trip. The son of Bob Back was supported on his hurdle debut in a decent Cork novice hurdle over three weeks ago where he finished a respectable fourth behind Darceys Dancer. Though that was a solid effort there could be better value in siding with Colm Murphys mare Milanette who boasts decent form in bumpers and she was just beaten in a controversial Down Royal bumper behind yesterdays good Navan maiden hurdle winner Ballymak before securing two more good placed efforts on differing grounds at Punchestown and Gowran. Though she is making her hurdle debut here she does have the assistance of Paul Townend and in receipt of 10lbs from the likely favourite she can land the spoils here at the expense of the ‘jolly’.
There is a fascinating extended 3m Grade 3 chase at Carlisle at 1-55 today where on official ratings Roll Along would appear to be a ‘knocking’ bet as the 160 rated chaser boasts a fine first time out record having obliged in the last 5 years on seasonal debuts. However the Nigel Twiston Davies trained gelding (previously with Carl Llewellyn) has not always been at home on testing ground and at the forecast price we will take him on with the Howard Johnson trained ex Irish three time point winner Companero who has also added three chases to his tally, including one over course and distance and the lightly raced 9yo boasts a good record at this venue and is clearly at home on testing ground. Though he is 23lbs ‘wrong’ with the favourite he is another who runs well fresh and the Peter Buchanan ridden gelding can spring a minor surprise here at the expense of the favourite while Victor Dartnall’s talented if enigmatic Lodge Lane is another to consider as the 8yo as he usually shows his best on seasonal debuts and the dual chase scorer could pose a danger her if recovering his best form.
Former Irish point scorer Promising Anshan can make a winning track debut for Charlie Mann in the 2m 4 1/2f novice hurdle at Southwell at 3-20 under Noel Fehily. The 4yo shaped with promise on his debut on testing ground at Punchestown where he exited at the last when vying for second berth but he opened his account at the third time of asking over a month later at Lingstown on better ground in what was an average contest. However his prominent style of running will be suited by this track and with good ground also likely to suit the son of Anshan this trip can see the youngster live up to his name here at the expense of former English point scorer Quintero while the twice raced See Me Soon could pose the major threat on the evidence of what was effectively his only track start less than a year ago where the former ex pointer and Sheppard trained 6yo finished a fair fifth in a Hereford 2m 1f novice hurdle.
Eric McNamara is doubly represented in the 2m 1f novice chase at Limerick at 3-35 with course winners Larkwing and Emergency Exit. The former is becoming expensive to follow and though the Barry Geraghty trained 8yo has twice finished in the frame in three efforts over fences he has not totally looked a natural at this game and at the likely odds he looks worth opposing. Emergency Exit has been equally less than promising in three starts in chases to date and it may pay to follow tried and trusted chase form. The one that the vote falls on is the John O’Callaghan trained ex point winner Swift Counsel who looked likely to collect on his chase debut at Listowel over 2m 3f but for falling at the last behind Head Waiter and though he failed by five lengths to beat yesterdays Navan Listed chase winner Oscar Looby (admittedly somewhat fortunate) over 2m 4f here a month ago the Davy Russell ridden 8yo can set the record straight here and score at the third time of asking despite the trip being somewhat on the short side. The main danger may come from the four time French winner Pesoto for the O’Grady yard whose second to Joncol on his second start in Ireland and chase debut at Punchestown almost a year ago though his subsequent form was somewhat below that level.
1-10 SOUTHWELL 2m hc chase
Richard Fords SILVER STEEL failed to land the hat trick of handicap chases 12 days ago where he was let down by his jumping but the 6yo can make amends despite top weight here at the expense of Tony McCoys mount War Footing.
4-00 CARLISLE – 2m 1f hc hurdle
A small but competitive field and there could be merit in siding with the Lucinda Russell trained 5yo Delightfully on his seasonal debut under Ryan Mania on his debut for the yard.
ADVICE
BET 4pt win MILANETTE 1-30 Limerick
BET 2pt win (saver) RIGOUR BACK BOB 1-30 Limerick
BET 3pt win COMPANERO 1-55 Carlisle
BET 2pt win (saver) LODGE LANE 1-55 Carlisle
BET 4pt win PROMISING ANSHAN 3-20 Southwell
BET 2pt win (saver) SEE ME SOON 3-20 Southwell
BET 5pt win (nap) SWIFT COUNSEL 3-35 Limerick
BET 2pt win (saver) PESOTO 3-35 Limerick
BET lay LARKWING to win 5pt 3-35 Limerick
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.
Sunday's Return was: PROFIT 0.12 points
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