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Sunday 22 November
DAQMAN
WAITING ON THE 100: Daqman keeps us waiting for his 100th winning nap – he’s two short – but he’s expected to complete the century this coming week.
SEVEN LAYS UP IN A ROW: After 13 consecutive, completed earlier in the month, his latest run of successful lays ended on seven (the record is 18) but he’s back sequence-building, with another one today.
TRIPLE-HEADER: For today’s racing, he concentrates on three trials, which have proved successful guides to big races in the past.
Becher, Grand Sefton and Troytown all in one day! We ought to come away with the Grand National winner, just as yesterday many of you will have taken out Champion Hurdler and Gold Cup winners from some fantastic finishes at Ascot and Haydock.
It was worth the craic, trying to find a flaw in Zaynar, but there wasn’t one. My bet, Karabak, got nearest to him. Nearly’s not good enough. But I’d do it again, with the facts before me.
In fact, confidence in Karabak was boosted by a seamless performance from Diamond Harry at Haydock, Karabak and ‘Harry’ having finished second and third to Mikael d’Haguent at Cheltenham last March.
Nicky Henderson now has the luxury of two potential champions, Zaynar and Binocular, but Willie Mullins must be wondering just how far he can go with Mikael d’Haguenet over fences, as his staying-hurdles form gets franked time and again.
Questions unanswered: how far would Planet Of Sound have won had he not ‘missed out’ a fence? Even then, he was the ‘moral’, beaten three lengths, giving 6lb.
How long will it take Kauto Star to recover from that epic struggle with Imperial Commander, and did he leave the King George behind? Probably not. Like Zaynar, he’s now off my lays list on the grounds that, whatever potential flaws you come up with, ‘Kauto’ confounds you. Two great horses.
12.35 Aintree (Grand Sefton): Brooklyn Brownie took high rank in the Grand National betting after being runner-up when this race was restored to the calendar last year.
Jim Goldie’s stable, which won it with a young horse off a light weight, tries the same again with Craiglands, adjacent in the handicap to Fresh Air And Fun for Jonjo O’Neill, who took the race in 2003, and marginally above Corlande, for Donald McCain, in form and with the name that still spells Aintree.
Does any one of these three get enough weight from Nudge And Nurdle? Nigel Twiston-Davies – Imperial Commander of the trainer quotes – says not.
Even those who listened when he said that last Saturday week was Khyber Kim’s ‘Gold Cup day’ and were rewarded with a 9-1 winner will be staggered to see ‘Twiston’ declare openly in the Racing Post today that Nudge And Nurdle is ‘a good thing,’ though he does add the rider ’hopefully.’
I thought that, after the Khyber Kim prediction and the Imperial Commander run yesterday, the only certainty would be that Nudge And Nurdle will be overbet. So 5.9 on the Daq had to be taken, even before the place market had any liquidity.
Dev is a front-runner along with Frankie Figg - not always a safe conveyance - Fresh Air And Fun looks too rash a jumper for these big fences and Bible Lord has more weight than he knows how to handle, with his yard out of form now.
Valley Ride, seemingly unfancied at 22.0, is untried over these fences but The Sawyer didn’t seem to like them in the Topham. For me, tough and consistent Craiglands is the threat to Nudge And Nurdle. They’re about the same price for a level-stakes dutch on the account.
1.45 Aintree (Becher Chase): The second race over the Grand National fences today – they’ve given themselves only an hour for any rebuilding – has given us false leads to the big race in the past: Young Kenny, Clan Royal, Garvivonnian and Mr Pointment were all subsequent National gambles without winning the real thing.
Amberleigh House and Silver Birch did win both races but their Becher success was largely ignored by the betting public, since their National wins came three years later. There’s no short learning curve to the big’un.
Scottish National winner Hello Bud ran a cracker at Cheltenham last week but the handicapper saw it, too. Vic Venturi is also high in the weights; like Royal Rosa and Idle Talk, he’s never won a handicap.
I can’t have up-in-class Keenan’s Future over these fences with his high head carriage; his only win in two years came when others fell and left him clear. Cleni Boy and Palypso De Creek have so far failed to take to fences, and this looks more like a suicide mission.
I’m left with ‘Twiston’ again: only heavy rain (the light stuff doesn’t get into the incredible Aintree surface) can stop former Topham winner, Irish Raptor, getting round into a place here: 7.6 with full place insurance is my kind of bet in an eight-runner race.
Trouble is my business but, by mid-morning, they still hadn’t had the forecast precipitation: keep your Daq up, though, and be ready to hedge, lay, whatever it takes.
2.35 Navan (Troytown): This race gave us Notre Pere last year, and he shouldn’t be written off: as I said in this column yesterday, he’s always looked more in the manner of a National horse than Gold Cup: they are different breeds.
I tipped Paddy Pub for the Munster National, and thought he could travel over the Welsh version but Treacle outran him and trainer Taaffe set Treacle’s sights on the Hennessy at Newbury.
Taaffe has had second thoughts and stayed home for this one, with subsequent Paddy Pub form putting them both only a few lengths in front of Away We Go and, through Operation Houdini, with not much to spare over Casey Supreme at today’s weights.
One of them has to improve again today to take any rank; they’re all young horses. Since she does so well on the course, and has had a prep run, you’d have to add Bella Mana Mou to the list, though Michael Cullen’s horses have not yet hit form.
Parsons Pistol was the disappointment of the Munster National, and blinkers are now tried but I’ve decided to stick with Paddy Pub (9.4 on the Daq) on the grounds that, at six, he is the one with the potential to improve with racing and with the ratings rises they’ve all had to face. |
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