DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 9 November DAQMAN  JUDGE FOR YOURSELF:  Daqman landed his nap, Judge Roy Bean (won 5-6), at Navan yesterday but could have had a hatful of winners – at least four - had things gone his way. BAD LUCK IS NO LONGER AN EXCUSE: Bad luck? Get real, says Daqman. Offering no excuses, he today discusses ‘win when you lose’ manipulation of exchange betting, and analyses Betdaq-sponsored races at Wolverhampton. THIS IS THE RACE FOR ‘REALITY BETTING’:  He spots a race which is open to bet-and-lay and lay-and-bet play, an obvious time to connect with what he calls ‘reality betting’ on Betdaq.  When you get it right, but it all goes wrong: that’s when you need Betdaq. It’s at times like my run of recent bad luck – including yesterday – that I am concerned to lay off on the horse I’ve backed or back savers in running. My ‘gem’ of the day, Roberto Goldback, was about to beat Champion Hurdle runner-up Osana in the beginners’ chase at Navan, but hit the last and lost momentum; regaining his stride, he would have got up again in another 50 yards. My bet Mille Chief was gambled off the boards in the opener at Market Rasen and was cantering when brought down three out, no fault of his own. Cartier Opera at Hereford was another gamble; but the 6-4 favourite, going well, blundered when his rider seemingly only had to press the button. Later in the day, Catch Me, yet another gamble, was ridden to lead before the last at Navan but fell with the race won. Bad luck? Yes; in spades. Excuse for losing? No. All four horses were shorter than the odds trading freely on Betdaq in the morning and you – and I – should have laid off before the race at the reduced offers or in-running at very short odds indeed. If you haven’t got used to it yet, Betdaq is a different way of life: you can win when you lose, so stealing a bookmaker’s cynical slogan and making a truism of it in the reality betting of the exchanges. The old days are over of the punter tearing up his ticket, cursing jockey and trainer alike and vowing never to bet again. Today, any backer worth the name considers his liabilities, follows the betting, and gets involved in the race itself, playing the market so that ‘bad luck’ is a thing of the past. 2.35 Wolverhampton (Try Betdaq For An Exchange Maiden): Not normally a betting race for me but, at this time of year, stables are jaded or used up after a long Flat season, and half a dozen yards here are out of form. Additionally, three-year-olds usually beat their elders. That leaves us pitting the exposed Desert Fairy and Order Order against lightly-raced Dovedon Angel and Silvester. Gay Kelleway’s horses are usually backed when she’s in form – she’s currently on 45% win and placed – and this race features her only runner of the day. So I would expect the 8.4 I saw about Dovedon Angel to disappear before the ‘off’; if not, two of her three runs suggest that she’ll be up with the pace and threatening, so that offers will reduce in running. This, as I said, is what it’s all about. Bet and lay. 3.40 Wolverhampton (Bet Premier League Football - Betdaq Nursery): Jeremy Glover, one of the best horsemen in the business, is quick to use the new champion apprentice, Frederik Tylicki. Forget Opus Dei’s run back on soft after a break and after being gelded, and consider his earlier form, and you’ll see that he was crying out for today’s extra furlong of his first handicap. A tempting 13.0 in early exchanges. I can’t find a front-runner in this but I can find plenty of dangers, though most have had a lot of chances. 4.40 Wolverhampton (Bet Asian Handicaps - Betdaq Handicap): This is different: several pacesetters should make it a fast-run affair. Lujano, 22.0 as I write, is your bet and lay; his style of running means he’s almost guaranteed to shrink in price in-running, having won two of his last three races. I may also play Colonel Sherman: the last time he ran at this trip on AW, he went haring off and was soon 10 or 12 lengths clear; yet he’s 27.0 as I write, tempting a small bet and lay. The reverse is the case with Spinning, five times a winner on the course: he, notoriously, gets left behind in his races and I would start by laying him at 5-2 or shorter and backing him in-running. The pace will suit. Yes, this is your race for joining in the reality game of Betdaq betting: get involved with bets and lays now, plotting your play and pouncing on the odds you want as offers shorten or lengthen in later exchanges, before the race and in-running. TODAY’S GEM: War Footing (1.10), a son of Cadoudal, is built like a chaser, has been trained specifically with fencing in mind and has Tony McCoy to do the job. Could start a sequence at Southwell. Yesterday: Roberto Goldback (2nd 9-2).
TODAY'S BETS
BET 4pts win (nap) WAR FOOTING (1.10 Southwell) BET 2pts win on each LODGE LANE and ROLL ALONG (1.55 Carlisle) BET 3pts win GRAMERCY (2.05 Wolverhampton) BET 2pts win DOVEDON ANGEL (2.35 Wolverhampton) BET 2pts win and place OPUS DEI (3.40 Wolverhampton) BET 2pts win SPINNING (4.40 Wolverhampton) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Sunday's Return was: LOSS 7.38 points
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