DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 7 October DAQMAN  ANOTHER WINNING NAP: Daqman had two more winners yesterday but his nap, Highland Glen (won 1-2), was a short price at SP after non-runners left him market leader in a three-horse race.   BIG OFFERS ON BETDAQ: The answer is to get Betdaq value before racing, and Daqman today finds win-and-place bets at 18.0, 14.0, 12.5 and 10.0 on a day of five meetings. Christmas is coming, according to the race titles at Colwick Park but Nottingham is Flat and the winter months are all about the jumping at Towcester and Exeter. What I like to do at this time of year is try to spot three types of NH horses: firstly, those that must win now while the ground is on top, though that’s up in the air today as rain is forecast, so beware of changing conditions. However, my two other models hold good: those jumpers ’got up’ first time; and the ‘grand annuals,’ those who return every year to do well at the same autumn venues. By ‘got up’ I refer to the thinkers: animals who quickly realise that gain is about pain, and they don’t like it. They need to be ready first time before they remember what racing to win is really like. Rudivale  (2.20 Exeter) didn’t make much of a fist of it when tried over fences and it’s interesting to see him returned to hurdles today. The Tizzards last runner was a winner (at Uttoxeter), and Rudivale won over hurdles a year ago tomorrow at Wincanton after a similar long lay-off between spring and autumn. He’ll be fresh as paint; there are plans for him over fences again (Ffos Las next week) but, don’t you agree, if we owned the horse we’d recognize how well he does when fresh over hurdles and ‘go for it’ today: 10.5 on Betdaq, as I write. Fourty Acers (3.20) and Jim Bob’s Girl (3.50), also do well after a break. Fourty Acers and Tora Bora are expected to spreadeagle their field from the front and, if the rain gets into the ground, Tora Bora’s light weight would be a bonus. An 18.0 offer, Tora Bora fits my ‘autumn horse’ model – four times a winner in October and November – and he’s 13lb lower than for his last success and 22lb below his rating when a winner on today’s course before that. Jim Bobs Girl, back with Alison Thorpe, is another that does well after a long break; Richard Johnson prefers Towcester so Robert Thornton comes in for the mount, the only ride of the day for a jockey with a 27% record for the trainer. Johnson is at Towcester for Tim Vaughan; though there’s Exeter today and Wincanton tomorrow, Vaughan and Welsh compatriot Evan Williams both trek to Northants. I think they’ll fight out the novices’ hurdle  (3.30) via Agente Romano and Hayes Princess, with the paper favourite, Pilgrims Lane, having an exposed look about him. As for autumn horses, Le Corvee (3.0), narrowly beaten in this event last year, has won all his races in September and October. Mick Channon, who has had that excruciating end to the Flat with Youmzain’s third consecutive Arc second, saddles Take My Hand (2.40 Nottingham). The Imperial Dancer 60-rated filly was not disgraced in her three maiden starts, learning the game, and on her handicap debut she was a fine third -  in what looked a strong race for the 0-65 grade - to Ed Dunlop’s well handicapped Chandrayaan; runner-up Gower Sophie ran a big race to be second in a 0-65 yesterday. Take My Hand was trapped in behind when the leaders quickened but travelled like the best horse in the race. Has come on nicely for that run and has the champion jockey elect in the saddle. The two-year-old maidens are worth watching: Sir Michael Stoute (three wins from his last six runners), John Dunlop (three out of six) and Sir Mark Prescott (four out of seven) are in cracking from, with Krymian (3.40) probably the pick of their trio in the opening division. He has been working nicely at home, and might have won last time but was sent on far too early. He travelling strongly upsides Official Style in his last gallop, and any rain would help his cause no end. Anmar is a nice one of Godolphin’s who has been working with Paschendale but he is expected to improve for the run. Colonel Carter, third behind Critical Moment on debut, won’t want too much cut in the ground but works nicely with Manhattan Fox and is the one with the experience. In the 4.10, rain would significantly boost the chances of Comradeship though I’m a bit disappointed connections haven’t waited for a nursery off his rating. He worked seriously well with Kona Coast and Quick Deal in the middle of last week and Kona Coast’s effort in a valuable sales race at the weekend paints a bright prospect for Comradeship. Liberty Square is one to save on; he has massively improved since his debut, travelling nicely in a gallop behind yesterday’s winner Al Ghazal, pulling away from Futurist who was still good enough to win at Pontefract on Monday. The key horse may want 10f in due course, but a mile in slower conditions would suit. Don’t think the tongue-tie means he has some sort of breathing problem; he gets his tongue over the bit and pulls hard without it, so its simply a settling measure. Much improved since his “everything went wrong” debut, he will fight this out with Comradeship. But both really need that cut in the ground. I’ll be watching Navan with my eye on Kieran O’Neill; the talented 7lb claimer has impressed up-and-coming trainers Ado McGuinness and Paul Deegan, and shrewd heads rate him the next Declan McDonogh. Diamond Fire (2.15) - McGuinness and O’Neill - failed to stay 7f last time at Ayr when absolutely cruising between the ‘two’ and the final furlong. He is a quirky horse but a big-field apprentice race with plenty of pace will suit and Kieran can bide his time to move through on this well handicapped horse; 18.5 on Betdaq as I write. The trainer-jockey combo bid for a big-odds double with the rejuvenated Silly Dancer (4.45), whose winning streak was interrupted by trouble in running and a shorter than ideal trip last time. Back to 10f today, she is still well handicapped: 14.0 on Betdaq this morning.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place RUDIVALE (2.20 Exeter) BET 2pts win and place TAKE MY HAND (2.40 Nottingham) BET 2pts win and place LE CORVEE (3.00 Towcester) BET 1pt win and place on each FOURTY ACERS and TORA BORA (3.20 Exeter) BET 2pts win on each AGENTE ROMANO and HAYES PRINCESS (3.30 Towcester) BET 4pts win KRYMIAN, and 2pts (saver) COLONEL CARTER (3.40 Nottingham) BET 6pts win (nap) JIM BOBS GIRL (3.50 Exeter) BET 4pts win COMRADESHIP, and 2pts (saver) LIBERTY SQUARE (4.10 Nottingham) BET 1pt win and place on each DIAMOND FIRE (2.15) and SILLY DANCER (4.45) at Navan. We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Tuesday's Return was: PROFIT 3.9 points
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