DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 29 October DAQMAN  DAQMAN ON THE BETDAQ RACES: Today Daqman takes you through the Betdaq-sponsored cards at Wolverhampton, with an eye for the apprentices’ title race and a knife-edge bet and lay. TWO LAYS OUT OF TWO: His lay, Dayia (2nd 9-4), was beaten yesterday following Alfatrix (2nd 6-1) earlier in the week.   27 UP OUT OF 33: That brings his current score to 27 from the last 33 and there’s another favourite he wants to finish second today. THIS ONE’S TIGHT: Daqman knows that today’s lay will be a close call, as he relies on an 11-times course winner to return to form. He says: ‘The favourite is a hair-raising bet and lay. I think she will be first or second. It could be that tight. I’ll stick my neck out and bet she’ll be second!” We should start sorting next Flat season now by looking at the well-sponsored Wolverhampton meeting tonight, and indeed every one of the final dozen or so meetings of the season, with a view to some decent ballyhoo about the apprentices’ title race. These boys – and girls – are our star jockeys of the future. You wouldn’t know it, looking at the Press, that there is a ding-dong battle (the old hackneyed expressions are the best) between Frederik Tylicki and David Probert. The current score is 69-67. The boys’ race always goes to the wire: if won on percentages, Freddie would take it but it’s down to numbers and he’s only two ahead, with three rides for David Probert this evening against his one. 4.30 Wolverhampton (Try Betdaq For An Exchange Handicap): The man David on Lithaam has to catch in the opener is Matthew Lawson, still claiming seven, but I’m going to lay his mount, the paper favourite Cayman Fox. ’Fox’ is a flying front-runner and is one of the day’s must bet-and-lays. But she has the problem of a high draw, which could use her up too soon, despite a drop of 3lb since she almost made all over course and distance a fortnight ago. Cayman Fox trapped well (in 5) that day but is now in the 8 stall: my stats say that in eight consecutive 5f 20y handicaps on the track this season, there was no winner drawn higher than 7, and stalls 2 and 3 have been first or second six times out of the eight. More recently, Wolver sprints have been over 5f 216yd but it’s the same story, with only two of 10 races going to a stall higher than 7. Cayman Fox has flattered to deceive before (I told you the old expressions are best) and she has never won a handicap, whereas Almaty Express is 11 times a course-and-distance winner. The ‘Express’ has unluckily drawn 8 and 12 in his last two runs here, when clearly unfancied at 20-1 and 33-1. This has actually paid dividends, since he’s been dropped 8lb and is now a stone below his best winning mark. The seven-year-old has been well supported this morning and I’m hoping he’ll get up steam early and break the heart of the young ‘Fox.’ 5.30 Wolverhampton (Back & Lay at Betdaq Handicap): The bet and lay for the race of this name should be Yanza; she was lit up by blinkers last time and is ideally drawn in stall 1 to get that proverbial flyer. David Probert has stall 3 for Golden Dixie and, though the 10-year-olds two CD wins were way back, he’s been dropped in the ratings and, overall, is now a cool 31lb and three grades lower than for a win at Goodwood two years ago. Romantic Queen has scored twice – in the other race she was second – from three starts at Wolver but stall 10 makes it hard for her today. I can’t look beyond another apprentice find, Andrea Atzeni, and Todber (stall 2), who is three out of five and raced more kindly for the tender hands of Katia Scallan last time than she did for Martin Dwyer. 7.30 Wolverhampton (Bet Multiples - Betdaq Handicap Div 1): This handicap was so well entered up that Betdaq have had to pay twice, with a second division half an hour later. Libre is Freddie Tylicki’s only mount, taken out of Nottingham yesterday to run here. It will have to be the ride of his life, since Libre is nine years old now and hasn’t won on the course for half a decade. John Mackie (Freda’s Rose) shows a level-stakes profit here 15p short of £100 and his mare is only lightly raced but she’s failed to land a couple of sellers and, if that’s her level, she’s an outsider here (editor’s note: isn’t that why John Mackie has made such a big profit?) I shall expect the race to go to one of the stables in form: David Evans (last-time winner Location), Andy Haynes (dropping down the handicap Mystic Touch), Julie Feilden (though Persian Tomcat is still a maiden) and Lee Smyth (Stage Dream). Smyth raided the same track last week and had two winners, so I’ll have my pound on Stage Dream in an open race. 8.00 Wolverhampton (Bet Multiples - Betdaq Handicap Div 11): Mojeerr is a slim Probert last chance to haul one back on Freddie Tylicki, though first-time cheekpieces might do the trick, as this is the weaker division, with the paper favourite, Strike Force, on a losing run of 21. However, the stable is in fine form. Black Stocking and Bourn Fair are lightly raced and may improve, but Richard Kingscote rides this track so well, I shall go along with Peintre d’Argent for Tom Dacombe. AT LINGFIELD: Padmini (4.10) is said by my man in the long grass to be the best filly in the Godolphin yard: she has been working very well with the likes of Dawnbreak, Modeyra and Sweet Sonnet. Bursting clear of the smart Morahin last week in a gallop, this one knows what to do on the debut, has a good turn of foot and comes here with very lofty expectations; she could even be a Classic filly. Padmini is the Hindu symbol of beauty; this one certainly has a beautiful action and is an attractive female in the manner of Padmini, the Indian actress who starred in 250 Bollywood films. She’s in the front row of the stalls in last year’s winning ‘seat’ (9).
TODAY'S BETS
BET 8pts win (nap) PADMINI (4.10 Lingfield) LAY to win 10pts CAYMAN FOX and BET 5pts win ALMATY EXPRESS (4.30 Wolverhampton) BET 6pts win TODBER (5.30 Wolverhampton) BET 2pts win and place STAGE DREAM (7.30 Wolverhampton) BET 2pts win and place PEINTRE D’ARGENT (8.00 Wolverhampton) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: LOSS 8 points
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