Betdaq Extra

IRELAND'S EYE on Monday

Monday 31 August

IRELAND'S EYE 

It is a busy day today with a brace of National Hunt meetings at Huntingdon and Cartmel in the UK while Downpatrick keeps the flag flying for Irish jump enthusiasts and Galway winds up with three day meeting with an all flat card. Gordon Elliott yard are enjoying a purple patch at present and he could have a home success in the opening Downpatrick maiden hurdle while there can be another British success in a Galway Listed flat event.
 
Another successful nap yesterday when Paco Jack (9/2-4/1) romped home in a handicap chase at Galway but we came unstuck in our bid to land 16 successful lays from 17 when Chinese White (11/8) snugly landed a Grade 3 at the Curragh at the expense of our selection Latin love (3-9/4). 
  
The opening 2m 2 1/2f maiden hurdle opens proceedings at Downpatrich this afternoon at 2-35 and it looks quite an open affair with half a dozen of the protagonists holding winning prospects. Willie Mullins Kilbeggan bumper winner Huckle Buck Shoes has proved expensive to follow in his two runs over hurdles recently and at the price forecast and he could struggle to turn around an eight length deficit with Dusty Trail on their second and third placings behind Chip Tea (disappointing subsequently) at Kilbeggan. The vote goes to the Gordon Elliott trained ex pointer The Shepherd on his third start over hurdles. A son of Dilshaan the 5yo shaped well on only start ‘between the flags’ and though he has not confirmed the promise of his runner up placing behind the decent point and dual bumper winner Our Musician in a Tipperary 2m 4f bumper on yielding in two starts to date over hurdles when fancied ‘at the books’ this will be the first time that he runs on better ground and the Joey Elliott ridden gelding can land the spoils here at the expense of Dusty Trail while the O’Hanlon runner Chatmatman is another who merits consideration on just his second start over flights.
 
Tom Taaffes Emotional Melody has failed to register in 14 tries over hurdles to date and though it is never clever to side with horses who invariably finish consistently ‘in the money’ without success the 7yo merits a bet in the mares maiden at Downpatrick over 2m 2 1/2f at 3-05. She has finished runner up and third over similar trips in maiden hurdles at this venue on yielding and better and her fair fifth placing to Hopeful Venture in a more competitive Limerick mares maiden hurdle reads well enough in the context of this contest. Liam Burke makes the long trek from Cork with the consistent Loughaderra Dame who finished second in the aforementioned Limerick contest and over a length ahead of the selection with the subsequent Ffos Las winner Just Moscow splitting the pair. The Davy Russell ridden 6yo was hampered at the last on that occasion and strictly on the book should get the vote but course experience counts for plenty around this tight circuit and a tentative vote goes to the Taaffe runner to beat Loughaderra Dame. The penalised Angela’s Lashes is another to consider while the Christy Roche runner Ballymore Girl is another who could show improvement.
 
Former in the care of Christy Roche Another Trump makes his British debut for Johnjo O’Neill in the 2m 1/2f maiden hurdle at 3-55 this afternoon where he looks likely to go off the market leader. However the 5yo has proved somewhat disappointing if consistent and there could be better value in siding with the flat maiden Agente Romano who has run well when going down narrowly in a couple of hurdle starts at Worcester and Stratford – only going down by the minimum margin on his hurdle debut at the former venue. The Evan Williams trained 4yo can land this contest under Paul Moloney at his third attempt at the expense of hurdle debutant and flat winner Kidlat from the Brendan Powell yard.
 
The Listed 1m 4f flat contest at Galway this evening at 6-55 could be bound for export as Michael Bells top weight Allied Forces can repel the home brigade under Declan McDonagh. A five time winner (including twice on heavy at Ayr (10f) and Pontefract (over this trip) the 4yo stayed on well to take the runner up purse to Kirklees in a Group 2 at York last time and the step up in distance and testing grounds can see the son of Invincible Spirit land this prize at the expense of the consistent Oxx trained 3yo filly Aliyfa whose two career wins have been achieved on better ground but she has shown a liking for easier ground by taking fourth to Drunken Sailor in a competitive handicap over course and distance before trying to make all when soundly beaten in second behind her talented stable mate Alandi at Fairyhouse in a Listed contest over this trip where she had another of tonights opponents Ghimaar well behind in fourth.
 
ADVICE
BET 4pt win (nap) THE SHEPHERD 2-35 Downpatrick
BET 1pt win (saver) DUSTY TRAIL 2-35 Downpatrick
BET 3pt win EMOTIONAL MELODY 3-05 Downpatrick
BET 2pt win (saver) LOUGHADERRA LADY 3-05 Downpatrick
BET 3pt win AGENTE ROMANO 3-55 Huntingdon
BET 1pt win (saver) KIDLAT 3-55 Huntingdon
BET 4pt win ALLIED POWERS 6-55 Galway
BET 2pt win ALIYFA 6-55 Galway
  
   
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Sunday's Return was: LOSS 1 point

 

DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 31 August DAQMAN  HOW TO WIN ON THE DAQ: Can you really make a steady income from betting? Daqman is the living proof, from last year’s amazing 1,000 winners to this summer’s super winning runs.   JULY: 217 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman’s 22-day winning sequence topped 217 points profit from winners like Moonage Daydream (won 12-1) and Total Gallery (won 11-1) AUGUST: 216 POINTS PROFIT: More big winners like Raccoon (won 12-1), and the 14-1 Betdaq value about two 8-1 York scorers, Akmal and Palavicini. His sequence reached 216 points profit. 16 LAYS IN A ROW: In July, he landed 13 lays in a row, just short of his record 16. And he finished August with 12 on the trot. If you are serious about your betting and you generally do well, you might make a profitable hobby out of it, or even a business: it’s more than ever possible these days with the fair trading available on Betdaq and the amount of information you can sift through. There’s still a puritanical – and mainly ignorant – attitude to betting in many places, and my grandfather would turn in his grave if he knew my profession. He and his eight brothers (yes, really) chalked up 400 years of Methodist preaching amongst themselves (yes, really) and, when that sum of the years was getting closer, would have been devastated had I stood up and called: 6-4 they don’t make it! (It was about that time that this schoolboy was making a book on the Grand National hidden within the classroom blackboard; those sliding ones that overlap came in very handy). In company now, if asked what I do for a living, I might have to say ‘oh, I write stuff’, without telling them what ’stuff.’ Seriously, what do you do if some sad excuse for a human-being turns on you and attacks your interest in betting? ’Do what I do,’ said Flann O’Brien, who was such a great writer that he could make world famous a poem about a pint of beer. ‘Carry a small grey American automatic and make sure that it is always stuffed with bullets,’ said yer man, ‘then, when some bleating fish-gilled bags opens up and says ‘of course, backing horses is a mug’s game,’ just empty the gun into his low-grade jungle forehead and explain what you have done to the police. ”The whole thing will be hushed up and you will never hear another word about it.” My battered old secondhand copy of ‘The Best Of Myles’ (from his Irish Times columns of 29 years) has an inscription – an aphorism from a former owner – which states: ‘Gambling is when you know nothing but still bet, investing is when you know the odds are on your side.’ Right now, confidence in money-markets is at its lowest for 20 years. You may blame the banks for it; that’s your opinion. The difference with betting on the exchanges is that you make your own bank and you don’t have to invest until you think you have an advantage; then you only deal with others like yourself; and, finally, you won’t be penalized (on Betdaq) if you keep winning. For those new to exchange betting, remember you are no longer in the situation where you have to pick one horse and, like a man who’s been dealt 16 in pontoon, stick or bust. You can charge your hand at any time with a bet or lay and you won’t go over the top if you choose the value cards. With Betdaq, you already have value, in that you are not betting in a massively overround book so keep up with the exchanges during the day and in the race, and mix bet and lay with a view to winning the race. Strangely, the majority of punters still want to pick one horse to win, when it is now far easier to pick a race to win. Use an odds-percentage table and you have three advantages: firstly, you are ahead of the other punters in your search for value; secondly, you can clearly see the better value on Betdaq, thirdly you can choose which Betdaq races give best value; you then get the best of the best! Betdaq punters have something not available in the betting-shops; what they have is the fluidity of a market of exchange; it is not a fixed-odds book nor is it a market manipulated for profit from start to finish by private concerns called bookmakers. When he bets with bookmakers, the punter unwittingly gives them a proportion of stake equivalent to the built-in overround and, unknowingly, contributes to a market where small money stakes, returned and bet again, has the take-out removed so many times that it is as impossible to win as any Scoop-6. Good luck, and the best of miles.   With 78 featured on the Racing Post ‘Cold Trainers’ list – just over 21% of all the trainers with runners today – you are sure to find value today. Eight of those trainers can be found in the 4.50 at Warwick, leaving only four horses to pick from. I can’t have Mexican Bob, who looks to have been backed thanks to his win last time out, while Reg Hollinshead (My Mate Max) has been missing strike. I will take Zuwaar (8.2) and the lightly raced Alvee (9.0) each way.   With Stargaze (3.35 Ripon) withdrawn, it throws the race wide open. A furious pace may be set with four possible front runners, which would work to their disadvantage, if they took each other on, and set the race up nicely for something in behind. Skylla and Businessman, both pace setters, are bidding for favouritism on Betdaq this morning, but they have both had their last runs on flat tracks and Ripon may not suit. Hold Your Colour – a Daqman winner last time out – could improve again for connections, notably Harry Findlay’s mother, and the in-form Brian Meehan stable. A course and distance winner, who should come from behind the leaders, looks value at 5.1.   The Findlay raid, this time for the man himself, looks sure to continue with Sanvean (3.25 Newcastle). The Mick Channon trained filly looks well in having done her recent work with higher rated horses, including Kerry’s Requiem (3.10 Epsom). She ran well off the same mark behind She’s In The Money at this course last time when she was beaten two and a quarter lengths, and now gets a 6lb pull in the weights. She is far too big at 8.6, compared with 2.47 for She’s In The Money when there shouldn’t be more than a cigarette paper between them, but it means I can back her each way to cover my win stake.   Dane O’Neill has a 50% strike rate with Indian Trail (3.10 Epsom), and with a fast pace on this tricky track, could well better that record. Starlit Sands makes her handicap debut for Sir Mark Prescott, who is also making use of his ability with aids – 33% strike rate with first time blinkers – on this Oasis Dream filly. She would have needed the run last time out and looks well in on her past ability.   The same stable has another handicap debutant – in which every three in ten are successful – Golden Button (5.30 Epsom). She has been working three lengths clear of Speed Dating, who races ten minutes before at Ripon, in a recent spin and if that one comes home in front, you’d certainly want to be on this filly having only her third race.   The boys in blue had a quiet day yesterday, but are back with Khor Dubai (4.15 Warwick), who should see off the keen running Taqdeyr, who has had all his wins on all-weather. The Godolphin colt will like the easy seven furlongs and drops down in grade after his class-2 success last time.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pt win INDIAN TRAIL and 1pt win and place STARLIT SANDS (3.10 Epsom) BET 2pts win and place SANVEAN (3.25 Newcastle) BET 2pts win HOLD YOUR COLOUR (3.35 Ripon) BET 6pts win (nap) KHOR DUBAI (4.15 Warwick) BET 1pt win and place on each ZUWAAR and ALVEE (4.50 Warwick) BET 2pts win GOLDEN BUTTON (5.30 Epsom) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Sunday's Return was: LOSS 8.5 points
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DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 30 August DAQMAN  There are 21 winners last-time-out at the three English meetings today, and, according to my figures, they will start at shorter odds than warranted by their ratings. The reason is simply, and obviously, that winners are attractive to the punter. But, as well as being cramped for value, last-time winners have a poor strike-rate, particularly in certain races.   I assessed a month’s racing this summer and found that, from 858 races, a quite eye-opening 232 of 885 last-time winners started favourite (26%). Only 130 of them won, a return of 14.7%. The worst races for a winner on its next-time run are sprints: generally speaking, only horses racing at a high level keep their form; in sprints, it’s particularly unusual for a horse to put back-to-back wins together.   Each speed race at full gallop (37mph+ for 5f) takes a lot out of a horse; moreover, since sprinters usually finish in a heap, just the odd few pounds as a penalty rules them out of contention next time at the revised ratings. So it is that, generally speaking, sprinters win in their turn, and so it is that, because trainers know this, they work to manoeuvre them into winning positions in winning conditions. I’m now going to research sprint results to see if their odds are affected by this pattern; in other words, do sprint winners generally start at value odds because they are unlikely to be among those winners last time out? I suspect so. Incidentally, on the 133 cards I analysed, 277 favourites or joint favourites won; 351 of the 944 favourites were placed (37%).   Of 83 odds-on favourites, 47 won; 36 of them were in maidens (18 won); 32 of them were in 2yo races and, again, 18 won. In handicaps, seven out of 17 and in sellers four out of six.   Best returns were from Group races (all three odds-on favourites were winners) and claimers: seven winners out of seven. Keep your eyes skinned and get on! Today there are two competitive claimers, at Beverley and Yarmouth. David Nicholls trained Royal Dignitary (2.00 Beverley) heads the field and could be worth backing if he goes odds-on. Every time he has raced as odds-on favourite – three times – he has been successful, compared with a 33% strike rate when odds-against.   However, with Richard Fahey's Diggeratt getting 15lb, plus in-form Brian McHugh's 5lb claim, and Grazeon Gold Blend coming down in class, this race will be no fifteen-timer pushover for Royal Dignitary. Even though there are no winners last time out in the Class 3 fillies sprint handicap, Aunt Nicola (2.10 Goodwood) pays a 2lb price for her Class-4 second. Stepping back up in class and yet to break her handicap maiden, I think there is value to be found elsewhere.   Rafta, if she consents to race on this occasion, is not out of it. Crystal Moments has only been beaten at this level, this season, by Swiss Diva and Bounty Box, who have both won class-2 handicaps since. She goes off the same mark as her last time out second to Bounty Box and should be able to take her chance. July Jasmine (2.45 Goodwood) is another who missed out up against a good horse, this time in Nassau winner Midday, on her only Listed attempt. She has run since in Group 2 races, but now drops back to 10 furlongs which should suit. If a second season animal is to win this, the Sir Michael Stoute filly looks like the class horse but, drawn 1 of 15, she will need some luck in running.   Consistent Alsace Lorraine should be in the shake-up too.   Of the three year olds, Leceile, a dual winner this term, is stepping up in class, but breezed up the Al Bahathri on Friday morning, and off a light weight with a good draw, may emulate three-year old Crystal Capella last year. The highlight of today’s English racing– the Group 3 Supreme Stakes (3.55 Goodwood) – has no runner from the Stoute yard, so Ryan Moore had an interesting choice to make.  He has spurned his father's three-year-old, Jet d’Eau, for Richard Hannon's Ordnance Row. Jet d'Eau certainly wasn’t disgraced on her first outing for her new yard, when it wasn’t in-form, after 11 months off the track and she should enjoy the extra furlong this time.   However, this may be this may be the second day running when Godolphin snatch the race from Ryan, this time with Ted Durcan riding Asset.   Disappointing last time out, he has impressed in his work on the Snailwell gallops and should merit favouritism.   Stoute/Moore should, however, finish in the winner's enclosure with Marching Time (5.05 Goodwood) who comes in cracking form and was very impressive when working on Wednesday.   Swop is reported in need of the run and the best of the rest may be Henry Candy's Signor Peltro, last year's winner but carrying 13lb more for his pains. Finally, the race of the day is the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes for fillies ( 3.45 Curragh).   Only seven runners, but seven winners, four last time out.   Frankie goes over to ride  Saeed bin Suroor's dual winner, Long Lashes, but the Irish defend with O'Brien's Lillie Langtry, and two winners of their only races, Jim Bolger's Gile Na Greine and Termagant from Kevin Prendergast.   Group One, probably odds-on, winner last time out (in similar course conditions), which is where I started.   Get on!
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win CRYSTAL MOMENTS (2.10 Goodwood) BET 2pts win LECEILE (2.45 Goodwood) BET 4pts win ASSET(3.55 Goodwood) BET 2pts win MARCHING TIME (5.05 Goodwood) BET 6pts win LILLIE LANGTRY (3.45 Curragh) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Saturday's Return was: PROFIT 8.5 points
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More

IRELAND'S EYE on Sunday

Sunday 30 August

IRELAND'S EYE 

Headquarters stage three Group races at the Curragh today with the feature being the Moyglare Stud Stakes while its Day 2 of the Galway three day meeting where there is some excellent jumping action. Joe Crowley can land a handicap chase with a course and distance scorer at Galway while David Wachman can take one of the Group 3’s at Headquarters.
 
We managed to bag another brace of winners yesterday when Our Jonathan (7/4-11/8) took a Listed sprint at Dundalk for the Kevin Ryan yard while Aidan O’Briens Trojan War (9/4) scored in a maiden at Galway. In addition our saver Major Payne (6-11/2) just got touched off in the opener at Cartmel while our nap Benbane Head (6/4-5/4) finished a highly disappointing third while Invisible Man (6/5) and Any Currency (11/4-5/2) had no answer to a former Irish trained runner in a novice chase. Montero (15/8) failed to get to all the way winner Let Yourself Go in his bid for a four timer over fences at Galway last evening.
  
RLiz Doyles 10yo On Your Way has not exactly proved a win machine over the years the son of Rakaposhi King has nevertheless scored three times over hurdles and he must have decent prospects of adding to his Bellewstown success in a fair handicap over 2m 1f earlier this week when he lines up for a quick follow up in the 2m handicap hurdle at Galway at 3-00. He seems to have found a new lease of life of late and looked to have the well backed favourite (and our selection) Mutadarek held when that one toppled at the last on soft ground and he ran out a ready enough winner from Takendo and another of todays rivals Glitter Baby. Though the Arthur Moore trained runner up re-opposes on 6lbs better terms for just over a length beating he could fail yet again to the Andrew Thornton ridden gelding who boasts a win over the course and distance on soft ground off a mark four pounds less than his wide margin 2005 success. With testing ground unlikely to favour the market choice Cloone Storm it looks likely that Takendo can yet again prove the main threat.
 
The Group 3 Dance Design Stakes over 1m 1f at the Curragh today at 3-15 sees three of the older fillies taking on 4 three years old and there looks to be some merit in siding with the David Wachman trained youngster Latin Love who gets most of the allowances here. Though we sided with the Dermot Weld trained 4yo Chinese White when she landed the Listed Hurry Harriet Stakes over this trip at Gowran 17 days ago and that form has been subsequently boosted by the runner up the daughter of Dalakhani does not often run decent back to back runs and though the ground will not pose a problem we will oppose her at the forecast short odds. Latin Love – a daughter of Danehill Dancer recorded her maiden win on soft to heavy at Navan last year over a mile and her last couple of runs has seen her adopt front running tactics – the latest saw her make all to beat another of todays opponents Oh Goodness Me by less than two lengths and that opponent could pose the biggest danger despite being only 2lbs better off with the winner. Jim Bolgers 3yo has recorded two career successes, including a Group 3 on heavy over a mile here and also finished a fair third to Again in the 1000 Guineas and she did not appear to stay in the English and Irish Oaks behind Sariska in the interim.
 
As ever the Irish Cambridgeshire mile handicap at 4-45 at Headquarters looks a wide open contests but there looks to be plenty of value on the DAQ with a couple of the longer priced runners and we will take 3 against the field here. The three that can deliver profit can be the Kevin Ryan trained Wigwam Willie, Jim Bolgers 3yo Toraidhe and course specialist Ballivor from the Farrell yard. The first named comes from an in form yard who landed a Dundalk Listed race with Our Jonathan yesterday and will appreciate the testing underfoot conditions and his recent staying on fourth in a competitive Galway handicap over the trip gives the experienced 7yo a decent chance of landing this prize with Neil Callan on board. Though Jim Bolger saddles one of the favourites in the relatively unexposed course and distance (heavy) winning 3yo Slieve Mish that one looks to have plenty to do at the weights and it is their apparent ‘second string’ Toraidhe who could prove the yards best chance for success here despite the fact that three year old do not hold a good record in the race. A course and distance winner on soft on just his third start the 3yo looked likely to succeed over the trip at Killarney on soft to heavy on just his second start in a handicap to the battle hardened Master Marvel and though he went up 3lbs for that effort he now has the valuable 5lb claim of Danny Mullins to aid his cause and he looks to be running off a promising mark. The lightly raced 6yo Ballivor has landed both his career wins over this course and distance on soft within a fortnight during June/July and though the Padraig Beggy ridden gelding must now race of a 15lb higher mark here he rarely runs a bad race here and goes on the ground.
 
Paco Jack has done this column a couple of favours of late over the larger obstacles and there is nothing better than sticking with a winning formula and Joe Crowleys progressive 5yo can make it three wins from four over fences in the last six weeks in a Galway 2m 6f handicap chase at 5-00. A three time winner over hurdles the son of Soviet Star now races off a mark similar to his hurdle mark and in addition he boasts a decent record at this venue where he recently followed up a decent third placing in a novice event over the trip before landing a handicap over course and distance four days later when accounting for Air Of Confusion by just under a length over course and distance. The runner up on the face of it has reasonable prospects of overturning that deficit here but the selection – despite now being 9lbs higher in the weights – looks more progressive and he can land this decent pot under Robert Power at the expense of the exasperating Sanglote who can always be guaranteed to get in the money but Eoin Griffins 6yo invariably does not find that much ’at the business end’ but his second to Kahuna over course and distance last time was boosted by a hurdle victory by than veteran at Sligo and he is unexposed over fences. Top weight Washington Lad cannot be dismissed on his fine third in the Galway Plate for the Fahy/Paddy Flood combination.
 
ADVICE
BET 4pt win ON YOUR WAY 3-00 Galway
BET 3pt win LATIN LOVE 3-15 Curragh
BET 2pt win (saver) OH GOODNESS ME 3-15 Curragh
BET lay to lose CHINESE WHITE lose 5pts 3-15 Curragh
BET 2pt wins WIGWAM WILLIE/TORAIDHE and BALLIVOR 4-45 Curragh
BET 5pt win (nap) PACO JACK 5-00 Galway
BET 1pt win (saver) SANGLOTE 5-00 Galway
  
   
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Saturday's Return was: LOSS 1.5 points

 

Alan McInally's 'Three For The Weekend'

Welcome to BETDAQ EXTRA - it's the second week of the Premier League on Saturday and once again we are delighted to be joined by our resident pundit ALAN MCINALLY.

The ex Villa, Celtic and Bayern Munich striker and now Sky Sports pundit brings his recommended 'Three For The Weekend' in our exclusive DAQCAST.

Two out of three last week - Big Al attempts to go one better and it's an early start with the first bet coming in the 12.45pm clash between Chelsea and Burnley.

Tune in now, just press play below.....

  

DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 29 August DAQMAN  The celebration in Celebration Mile at Goodwood this afternoon could belong to champion jockey Ryan Moore. It would be his last for some time, and that grim countenance will be an unhappy sight indeed if he misses this pot before his swingeing ban. Moore, who rides Zacinto, starts an eight-day holiday next week over the big Sprint weekend and into the lead-up to the Leger, which ironically sees the return of the former champion Kieren Fallon. Here’s how I see today’s top races, their stats and possible outcome: 2.05 Goodwood (Handicap):   Rash Judgement is not something you want when betting, but on this occasion I’m backing it. Stuart Kittow and Fergus Sweeney have had four winners from ten runners at Goodwood when they team up, and the four-year-old should improve on his two course placings. There is some debate about the draw, but with a fast pace in front from Peter’s Island, it won’t bother the Mark Of Esteem gelding who should be held off the pace.   In theory, Osiris Way should see off the Devon trained horse based on their last run; but, that was in May, and Rash Judgement likes to run fresh, while last year’s winner ‘Osiris’ hasn’t shown much since.   I’m betting on Servoca to bounce back at 20.0 on Betdaq this morning, after disappointing over seven furlongs last time on easier ground. The second season animal has finished in the money in 10 of his 13 races, including just losing out on the top spot up a grade in July.     2.20 Newmarket (Chris Blackwell Memorial):   Seek N’ Destroy fits the stats in this race for the in-form Barry Hills stable. The Exceed And Excel gelding is coming back from a break, which will suit and, with nine out of the ten winners this decade placed last time out, he is in the right sort of form. With worries over the ground for the favourite, Russian Jar, I like this well-drawn improver for a stable which has won this race before.   2.35 Goodwood (March Stakes):   With the Queen’s runner withdrawn, focus may switch to Amanda Perret, Goodwood royalty of a different sort, in a race she loves to win. With three successes in the last five years, she will hope that Classic Vintage can step up to the mark in a competitive field. Marcus Tregoning makes up the other two recent winners and Oasis Knight would make a great each-way bet at 14.0 if the eight runners still stood.   With no obvious front runner, Urban Poet – an ex-Mark Johnston horse – may well set his own pace under a 2lb overweight Frankie Dettori on his Godolphin debut. The lack of pace wouldn’t suit stayers like Mourilyan and I fancy the lightly-raced John Dunlop horse.   King Of Wands is stepping up in class again after his success at Sandown in a field of four. His last three races have all been slow, but that is due to lack of pace in the race, which he seems to handle. 2.50 Newmarket (Nursery):   I’m keeping my money in my pocket for this one. Three horses look to have a real chance in Azizi, Red Badge and Damietta, but splitting them looks tricky. Azizi is the one they are going for this morning on Betdaq, but he has risen 10lb for his last win and now attempts a hat-trick. Damietta beat a highly thought of Sir Michael Stoute filly last time and is certainly improving, while Red Badge finally takes the step up in trip he has been wanting.   3.10 Goodwood (Celebration Mile): Zacinto's chance of a big Ryan Moore payout before his ban is not improved by the presence of Delegator, the ‘form horse’ in the race. Zacinto’s main appeal to punters is the ‘Stoute factor’: five winners from only eight runners in this race, but his Listed win came on soft and this is some step up. Delegator, on the other hand, is a Guineas runner up, who also filled the places in the St James Palace Stakes and the sharp mile here should suit. My man in the long grass has been impressed with his recent work and he should take this prize but I can’t get value at odds on in what is certain to be a tactical affair.    The two Dansili three-year-olds are the main talking point, but that could leave the race to fall to an older outsider if the pace isn’t run to suit the youngsters. In that case, Mac Love may get the first run on Ordanance Row in front to spring a surprise.   3.25 Newmarket (Listed):   Hughie Morrison’s Palace Moon is the one to beat, but on good ground – which may be on the quick side – that may be hard work. He is well up in the weights, but is a real improver and should take his chance today back to six furlongs after his fourth in the Hungerford two weeks ago.   3.45 Goodwood (Prestige Stakes):   With seven of the last ten races won by fillies that were first home last time out, Mudaaraah and Siyaadah look like the ones to be on. Mudaaraah, a Listed winner, ran poorly at Goodwood, but that was put down to a respiratory infection and she should do better today. Siyaadah may be the surprise, having only her second run after her winning debut at Redcar. The last two winners have both had just one run and the Godolphin filly, at 5.5, looks value.   The Sweet Solera Stakes saw Sent From Heaven, albeit with a flashing tail, beat Snow Fairy into third by three quarters of a length and the prices at 5.0 and 10.0 respectively seem to reflect that. Snow Fairy didn’t get a clear run that day though so at that price, she must be backed.   OTHER RACES: Dafeef (1.50 Newmarket) can put his experience to good use today having worked well with yesterday’s winner Ameer. The final one to note is Michael Jarvis’ Learo Dochais (7.10 Windsor) who is expected to resume winning ways. She has been working very well at home of late and comes here off an impressive gallop with Taqdeyr. He is rated much higher, so she is clearly off a fair mark having met trouble in running last time. At 8.6 this morning and well drawn she looks a solid each way bet.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 4pts win DAFEEF (1.50 Newmarket) BET 2pts win RASH JUDGEMENT and 1pt win and place SERVOCA (2.05 Goodwood) BET 2pts win SEEK N’ DESTROY (2.20 Newmarket) BET 3pts win KING OF WANDS (2.35 Goodwood) BET 1pt win and place MAC LOVE (3.10 Goodwood) BET 2pts win PALACE MOON (3.25 Newmarket) BET 1pt win and place SNOW FAIRY (3.45 Goodwood) BET 2pts win and place LEARO DOCHAIS (7.10 Windsor) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Friday's Return was: LOSS 8 points
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IRELAND'S EYE on Saturday

Saturday 29 August

IRELAND'S EYE 

Galway stages a mixed card today while the flat enthusiasts are catered for at Dundalk and Cartmel hog the jumping action in England. Aidan O’Brien can land a maiden at Galway with a once raced 2yo while a couple of former pointers could land the opening races on the Cartmel card at decent odds.
 
Normal service was restored yesterday when our nap Just Moscow (7morn-5/1) bolted in at Ffos Las and he was followed up by success for the Paul Nolan trained Honorary Title (15/8morn-11/8) in the bumper at Wexford. Our run of successful lays continued when the flattering (whats new) Total Enjoyment (7/4) and trading at 1.1 on the DAQ in running could only eventually finish third at Down Royal. In the same contest our selection Jettymarc (7/2) got going too late when finishing runner up while Where’s My Soul (9/4-15/8) could only fill the runner up berth in the Ffos Las finale.
  
Racing opens at Cartmel at 2-10 with a 2m 6f maiden hurdle and with stamina looking to be the main prerequisite for success we award the vote to the former point and bumper winner Benbane Head. Now with Michael Keightley the son of Giant’s Causeway overcame a bad mistake after half way to land his sole effort ‘between the flags’ in good style and the 5yo made a winning debut for current connections when landing an average Uttoxeter bumper on heavy and he has since ran well in better company in bumpers and he was far from disgraced when finishing a staying on tenth to impressive winner Dunguib in the Cheltenham bumper on final foray. Though he a run over hurdles point to point experience should prove a positive and the Warren Marston ridden gelding seems to run well when fresh and the ground (forecast soft) should be ideal in addition to the step up in trip. The former Nicky Henderson trained 4yo Tollishill is another to consider but the main danger may come from Donald McCains twice raced Major Payne who just went down narrowly to an unfancied opponent in a Uttoxeter 2m 4 maiden hurdle last time on good to soft when installed favourite.
 
Tom George’s 4yo Invisible Man looks set to go off favourite to land the extended 2m 5f novice chase at Cartmel at 2-40 on the back of two decent efforts over fences to date. A hurdle winner in France earlier this year he shaped with promise when finishing a fair third to Rippling Ring on his debut and he was fancied to go a couple of places better a month later when failing by two and a half lengths to Robert The Brave at Market Rasen over two miles and four on good ground with a wide gap back to the third finisher. Though the Sam Thomas ridden gelding gets all the allowances here and should be suited by the ease in the ground at the forecast prices it could pay to side with the older gelding Any Currency. Though the Keightley 6yo has failed to score in seven attempts over hurdles since landing a decent Crecora maiden point in 2008 he has run well in defeat against some decent types such as Chariot Charger, Kayf Aramis, Great Endeavour and The Gossmoor Yank on mainly softish ground over middle and staying distances last season and if stripping fit he could prove the answer here and give Michael Keightley and warren Marston a quick double at the expense of the younger and more experienced (over fences) Invisible Man. The former Michael Hourigan trained dual hurdle scorer Shanballa is another to consider on his debut for the Evan Williams yard.
 
The Listed 5f contest at Dundalk at 3-25 today looks booked for export as the in form Kevin Ryan yard look to have the answer with the twice raced Our Jonathan. He went off an unconsidered 14/1 shot on his debut in a Haydock 6f maiden in early June but the son of Invincible Spirit seemed to run well above stable expectations when only giving best late to go under by a length to the more experienced ‘hot’ favourite and subsequent winner Black Snowflake over six furlongs on good ground. Though he had little to beat when scooting home at prohibitive odds over todays trip at Pontefract six weeks later he looks a 2yo on the way up and the Fran Berry ridden selection is taken to beat the 98 rated Rock Jock who hold that lofty mark on the strength of two decent efforts behind the useful Aidan O’Brien colt Alfred Nobel – including a fair third in the Railway Stakes. Perhaps a drop back in distance (all runs over 6f to date) and better ground could see the Tracey Collins runner challenge for the major honours under Pat Shanahan but it is usually wise to stick with winning form in these type of races and there are 5 previous winners in the line up which include the once raced and unbeaten Ger Lyons trained Invincible Vibes who boasts a course and distance win some six weeks ago.
 
Dermot Weld and Aidan O’Brien went head to head in a couple of juvenile contests at the Galway Festival last month and there looks to be another ‘head to head’ involving that duo in the 1m 4f maiden at the Connaught venue this evening at 5-30. Weld is represented by Sublime Talent has tasted defeat at the hands of an O’Brien runner in his three starts to date with his most recent effort proving the most costly as the son of Sadler’s Wells started at long odds on over his first try at this distance but he just lost out in a titanic struggle to Viceroy Of India with Johnny Murtagh on board. The Smullen ridden runner may again have to settle for the second prize here as the once raced O’Brien charge Trojan War looks to have the most scope for improvement following a fine third placing at Leopardstown over 7f last October where he had his better fancied stable mate and subsequent Ebor runner up Changingoftheguard back in fifth in a race which has thrown up several subsequent scorers. The Johnny Murtagh ridden colt should be suited by the step up in trip and as Welds charge did not look totally ‘at home’ on testing ground last time he rates the bet to land a contest where reasonable cases could be made for a couple of the other protagonists.
 
Dessie Hughes former pointer Montero looks a chaser on the upgrade and the 7yo is seeking his fourth chase win in the 2m 1f novice chase at Galway at 6-30. The former bumper and dual hurdle scorer seems to have really found his niche over the larger obstacles and though the son of Pistolet Bleu is basically a staying type he showed his versatility when scoring in clear cut style in a similar course and distance novice at the Festival a month ago and though he meets a couple of more promising types here the Roger Loughran ridden gelding can maintain his unbeaten record here. Though Adrian Maguires former decent pointer Let Yourself Go went some way toward confirming his earlier promise with a fine round of leaping to land a Ballinrobe novice chase on his second start on yielding to soft he would be suited by less demanding ground. Niall Maddens Wins Now could pose the main danger in receipt of 6lbs from the selection and though the 8yo has taken some time to gain winning brackets over fences he finally opened his account in a modest Tipperary affair before seemingly not getting home when taking a fair fifth placing to easy winner Ballyholland in the Galway Plate (2m 6f) when fancied in the market.
 
ADVICE
BET 4pt win (nap) BENBANE HEAD 2-10 Cartmel
BET 1pt win (saver) MAJOR PAYNE 2-10 Cartmel
BET 3pt win ANY CURRENCY 2-40 Cartmel
BET 2pt win (saver) INVISIBLE MAN 2-40 Cartmel
BET 4pt win OUR JONATHON 3-25 Dundalk
BET 4pt win TROJAN WAR 5-30 Galway
BET 2pt win (saver) SUBLIME TALENT 5-30 Galway
BET 4pt win MONTERO 6-30 Galway
  
   
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Friday's Return was: PROFIT 19.92 points

 

Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Preview

Saturday 29 August

Join Sky Sports Pundit ED CHAMBERLIN in his regular Weekend Sports Preview below. Simply press play below to tune into Ed's exclusive DAQCAST - covering a whole host of weekend betting opportunities on the DAQ including the racing at Goodwood and the Twenty20 cricket from Old Trafford....

ED CHAMBERLIN'S WEEKEND BETTING PREVIEW

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IRELAND'S EYE on Friday

Friday 28 August

IRELAND'S EYE 

On a busy day there is a double header in Ireland with Down Royal staging a mixed card while in the South Wexford also hoses an interesting National hunt card. Wales stage their second jump card at Ffos Las this afternoon where Ruby Walsh looks to have decent prospects of landing the feature handicap hurdle and later he jets back to partner the favourite in the concluding novice chase at Wexford where he can combine with Willie Mullins to make it a hat trick on a six year old. Jessica Harrington looks to have a fine chance of landing a double on an excellent card at the Welsh fixture.
 
We drew a blank yesterday with Mutaradek (5/2-13/8) looking held when toppling at the last in the featured handicap hurdle at Bellewstown and Slievecorragh (7-6/1) just finishing out of the placings.
  
Gordon Elliott is a regular winner on English shores and the former Grand National winning trainer can combine with Ruby Walsh to land the featured handicap hurdle at 3-55 at Ffos Las this afternoon with Grand Opera. A former two time flat winner for Howard Johnson the 6yo has since added a couple of flat contests on the strand at Laytown and all weather at Dundalk for his present stable and the son of City On A Hill is on the trail of a four timer having missed last nights engagement at Bellewstown on demanding ground. Though he did score in fine style in emphatic fashion at Killarney on his most recent run on soft ground he seems best on a sound surface and though he is 11lbs higher for that success and steps up in class here he rates the vote off 10-3 to beat the former ex Irish pointer Enlightenment from the Evan Williams yard who is returning to hurdles after an absence of nearly a year and a half. However the 9yo handles better ground and with the useful 7lb claimer on board he looks the best place value at the current odds. The unexposed Emma Lavelles trained Oceana Gold is another to consider off a higher weight.
 
On a day when many of the top prizes look destined for the Emerald Isle at Ffos Las the mares novice hurdle over 2m 4f at 4-55 looks set to continue that trend. The former Irish trained Cailin Na Ri has proved frustrating for the Mullins yard since joining them earlier this year and the 6yo has managed to finish second four times over hurdles in her six attempts to date. Despite the fact that she has only lost out narrowly on three of those runs on mainly good ground and her narrow defeat at the hands of the subsequent scorer Billie Magern has been boosted by an easy success for the progressive Twiston Davies runner in the interim she is proving hard to win with and tends to find not as much as expected ‘at the death’ in her contests. However she does have one of the best Great Persuaders’ in Ruby Walsh on board this afternoon. We will give the vote however to the improving Irish raider Just Moscow who has been showing progression in her five runs to date over sticks and she was far from disgraced 5 days ago when failing to match strides in the final stages over this trip to an improving sort in For The Staff at Cork on soft but the 5yo staying on third to Hopeful Venture on better ground at Limerick on her penultimate run on good ground indicate that todays ground could suit the Robert Power ridden mare.
 
It is no secret that we have a ‘love-hate’ relationship with Tommy Coopers exasperating Total Enjoyment in her exploits over jumps to date. Though the 7yo did open her account at the sixth time of asking at Cork last time and the Paul Townend ridden gelding looks set to go off favourite to follow up in the 5-15 at Down royal this evening – a 2m hurdle the percentage call is to take on the two time winner – despite her claims on the pick of her form over hurdles. Noel Meades easy Kilbeggan hurdle winner will have his supporters in the hands of Paul Carberry but we will side with Tracey Collins unexposed 4yo Jettymac. A two time winner on the flat on yielding and better ground the son of Indian Danehill again showed a liking for better ground when landing a Tramore maiden hurdle over this trip earlier this year on good ground and with the ground drying out (yielding at present) the Davy Russell ridden gelding can land this prize for his in form yard.
 
It could be a good afternoon for Jessica Harrington at Ffos Las as she looks to have decent prospects of making it a double in the finale – a mares bumper over 2m at 5-25. One of eight 4yo in the line up Where’s My Soul can open her account in this sphere at the fourth time of asking having looked unlucky not to make a winning debut when just touched off under the trainers daughter at Gowran in March on yielding ground. She has not been disgraced in a couple of subsequent efforts on easier ground and she was not beaten just under 7 lengths at Punchestown on soft when last seen in late May. Barry Geraghty takes over this afternoon on the daughter of Daylami and she can get the better of another Irish challenger in Colm Murphys 4yo Irish Elk whose fair fourth in a decent Down Royal bumper on good to firm on her penultimate outing could see the Robert thornton ridden mare go close. Debutant 6yo Karingreason from the Keith Reveley yard looks an interesting debutant.
 
The 2m bumper at Wexford this evening at 6-35 features several unraced sorts but we will side with experience and the one that gets our vote is the twice raced Paul Nolan charge Honorary Title. The 4yo has run well on both starts to date and he may have needed the run in his first start for almost four months when staying on to take a fair third to Honours Graduate at Galway on soft over a month ago. With the useful claim of M J Doran (7lbs) he can put his experience to good use on his first start on better ground to beat the interesting debutant Shot From The Hip from the Edward O’Grady yard. Former pointer Wang is another who could be suited by better ground.
 
ADVICE
BET 4pt win GRAND OPERA 3-55 Ffos Las
BET 1pt win 1pt place ENLIGHTENMENT 3-55 Ffos Las
BET 5pt win (nap) JUST MOSCOW 4-55 Ffos Las
BET 2pt win (saver) CAILIN NA RI 4-55 Ffos Las
BET 4pt win JETTYMARC 5-15 Down Royal
BET lay to lose TOTAL ENJOYMENT lose 6pt 5-15 Down Royal
BET 4pt win WHERE’S MY SOUL 5-25 Ffos Las
BET 2pt win (saver) IRISH ELK 5-25 Ffos Las
BET 4pt win HONORARY TITLE 6-35 Wexford
  
   
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Thursday's Return was: LOSS 13 points

 

DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 28 August DAQMAN  My lays are currently 12 out of 12, and 17 from the last 18: how would you like to add another 19 from 24 in the same time period? That would be 36 winning bets out of 42, a strike rate that could make you rich if you have the resources and the discipline, and there’s no reason why not. Clue: you need to be watching TV and with your Betdaq up at the ready on your monitor, logged in to the site. The answer is that you lay every fancied horse that falls into the following, or similar, categories in past performance, in the parade ring on the day, on the way to the start, while loading and during the early furlong or so of the race: Sweats badly, wild-eyed with head reared, plants, pulls continually against handler, pulls jockeys arms out, tosses head around or raises head up and down wrestling with the bit, continually changes stride or goes to start ‘short’, resists restraint, has to be pushed to stalls or hooded after attempts to load, fractious in stalls, slow away; hangs, swerves in behind horses, refuses to settle. This list belongs to a well-known race reader: he lays a horse when he sees such antics or has noted them for future reference. Because he can’t be everywhere at once, he tapes races and he also keeps a list of horses noted in results published by the Racing Post, in the Sporting Life on-line or in the form-book, and he claims near-90% success rate. Mathematical research of his past results and staking plans suggested to him that he should bet below 5-1 and on quality race-days (even ‘rubbish’ horses can sometimes beat ‘rubbish’), but he will oppose where he thinks the chance is slim that the horse can score despite its bad behaviour. Noordhoek Kid (6.10 Bath) might be a case in point. He dwelt in his last race, as he has done in two of his five outings, as well as ‘slowly into stride’ and ‘edged left,’ yet he is 4-1 favourite this morning. Still a maiden, he could be just right for a lay, although it is a poor race and I can’t see anything I would be willing to put my money on to beat him. Vanishing Grey (5.40 Bath) is more the sort of favourite I like to see and the lack of opposition works in our favour. The Verglas filly is 2.42 as I write and is worth backing today. She has been flying at home, after running too freely last time, and takes on two of Godolphin’s lesser lights today. Back to a fillies race and down in trip, she is sure to take her chance today. With maidens the dish of the day at Newmarket, you would expect Godolphin to be there in numbers. They don’t disappoint, with three two-year-olds making their debuts. My man in the long grass is most taken by Ameer (2.55 Newmarket), who could be one to watch, but I can’t back him on his first run. Awesome Act is the one to beat in that race, after getting closest to Al Zir last time, on his debut, and is sure to have come on for the run; however, Sir Michael Stoute unleashes one of his trump cards for next season in Mushreq. He has impressed at home with an unraced Dansili colt, Warm Memories, and will give the Jeremy Noseda colt something to think about.  Nafura (1.20) raced 5th behind her stable companion Damietta on her debut, but has improved significantly, impressing in a gallop with that companion lately as well as with winning Redcar debutant Siyaadah. At 6.6 on Betdaq this morning, she looks good value on the back of her solid form.   All seven runners in the nursery are stepping up to this trip for the first time, and the main contenders for the top prize are handicap debutants Missionaire (2.20) and Deauville Post taking on the more exposed Whipper’s Love. Mark Johnston’s colt seems to be taking after his sire, Prix Morny winner Whipper, who had all his wins on good or easier ground, which wouldn’t help this afternoon. Missionaire beat Dubawi Phantom – third in the Solario Stakes since – by half a length at Newmarket in June, while Deauville Post was beaten three lengths by the same horse two weeks later. Using that yardstick, Missionaire should be shorter than the Hannon runner, but currently trades at 4.4 on Betdaq. The 31 Irish raiders head the Traveller’s Check list in the Racing Post this morning, despite probably being closer to Ffos Las, which is officially opened today, than most in the UK. Charlie Swan has brought six runners over, and the value bet seems to be Prince Noora (2.45 Ffos Las). With the stable in form, this gelding is one of only two horses in the race – the other being the favourite Changing Lanes – to have won over fences. At 12.5, I will back this distance winner each way.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and place NAFURA (1.20 Newmarket) BET 2pts win MISSIONAIRE (2.20 Newmarket) BET 1pt win and place PRINCE NOORA (2.45 Ffos Las) BET 5pts win (nb) AWESOME ACT (2.55 Newmarket) BET 5pts win (nap) VANISHING GREY (5.40 Bath) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Thursday's Return was: LOSS 3.13 points
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