Betdaq Extra

DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 26 July DAQMAN  250 LAYS UP: The defeat of paper favourite Hawk Mountain (2nd 11-4) at York yesterday was a landmark 250th successful lay for Daqman since his column began. NOW AT 85%: The 250 has come from 324 bets (77% strike rate) but his current sequence of 46 from 54 is up another gear, to more than 85%. His overall lays profit stands at £1,458 to £10 stakes. KING GEORGE WIN: Daqman named the King George winner, Conduit (won 13-8), and spotted the third, Ask, when it was trading at 13.5 on Betdaq. 9-1 WINNER: His other successes yesterday included Knot In Wood (won 9-1) at York. It happens all the time – the price of things these days – and we get used to ‘daylight robbery’ so, when Channel-4 made a mistake yesterday and put up 171% as the trading total on a York show for the Kirklees race, for a moment, I almost believed it. They were cracking into Kirklees with just three minutes to the ‘off’ time but surely the book couldn’t be that bad! I did some quick reckoning and found that the show was, in fact, overround at about 119%, so the screen should probably have shown 117 not 171. At that time, Betdaq was trading at 104.79. In another show near the start of the race, the bookies’ list remained at 119 whereas, though they were queuing up for the favourite, Betdaq’s reduced to 101.80 overall. The SP total percentage was 117. When things are brought home to you in this way, there’s a moment of reflection to be grateful for what we’ve got; in this case for the Daq. Hands up all those who are ‘after-timing’ about the 40-1 winner Al Muheer! I know I regret letting him go unbacked when little more than a month earlier he had run second in a big field over course and distance. The four preceding straight-course races had gone to stall 5 and 6 but the Al Muheer race result by draw was 20, 16, 11, 22, 5. That figures. In fact four of the first five home fitted the received wisdom, that the advantage is to horses drawn in the five or six stalls nearest either rail. This is borne out by past results of today’s sprint race, the last on the card, with the winners having come from stall 1 (once), 16 (once), 21 (twice) and 23 (twice). We must, therefore, have an interest in Tony The Tap (5.10 Ascot) – a tasty 26.0 on Betdaq as I write – since he ran well from a middle draw on the course a fortnight ago in the race won by Sonny Red. If you take David Probert’s claim into account – and I think you can; he’s riding well – then Tony The Tap, drawn 24 today, is 9lb better off with the winner and 8lb with the runner-up Group Therapy; both these rivals are drawn in the middle today. The key to Tony The Tap, fourth in this event two years ago, is that he must have a really fast-run race and, on his side of the field in stall 21, last year’s runner-up Strike Up The Band (26.0 on the Daq) could give him the battle he needs, though they should also tow Indian Trail (20.0), difficult to win with but with excuses for recent starts since scoring at Epsom. Nicholls also provides the pace for the low stalls, via front-runners Fol Hollow and Mandurah: they would set it up for Fathom Five and Judge and Jury if the rains came but, on top of the ground, you’d have to go for The Jobber (trading 26.0 as I write). Advertisement (2.15) has been impressing at home, strolling eight lengths clear of his work companion on Wednesday morning. With form figures at Ascot of 1010, Strategic Mount (4.35) is due another win and, though he’s high in the handicap, his figures for his second run back are 110. This isn’t the track for Greylami but Night Crescendo also loves Ascot; however, two of his three wins out of five on the course came with cut in the ground and a shower or two would help him; keep an eye on the weather. Young horses have won all three runnings of this – aged four and five – and Record Breaker and Storyland have obvious claims, while Sabotage will have to go well here if he is to stand any chance in the Voltigeur against the likes of Alwaary (good run in the King George yesterday, wasn’t it). Supaseus (3.50) ought to make his presence felt in the Pontefract Listed, dropped from Group company. Punters are steaming into the Royal Ascot failure Orizaba, and are obviously worried about Supaseus’ injury which came to light in Dubai but, assuming Hughie Morrison is happy with him, 16.5 in a Listed for a horse of his class is a gift. It’s turned heavy at the Curragh, and that should leave the Phoenix Stakes (3.40) to Alfred Nobel and Walk On Bye; the colt has already shown stamina enough to win at 7f and, on a line through King Ledley, can beat the filly. I’ll stick my neck out and try a double whammy. In the other two-year-old trial, the Robert Papin at ‘Maisons’ (2.50), Siyouni is unopposable and one for your Daq Multiples.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win ADVERTISEMENT (2.15 Ascot) LAY to win 10pts WALK ON BYE and BET 6pts win ALFRED NOBEL (3.40 The Curragh) BET 1pt win and place SUPASEUS, and 2pts win (saver) ORIZABA (3.50 Pontefract) BET 2pts win and place on each SABOTAGE and STORYLAND (4.35 Ascot) BET 1pt win and place on each INDIAN TRAIL, STRIKE UP THE BAND, THE JOBBER, and TONY THE TAP (5.10 Ascot) DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Siyouni (2.50 Maisons Laffitte) and Alfred Nobel (3.40 The Curragh) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Saturday's Return was: LOSS 3 points
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Ireland's Eye on Sunday

Sunday 26 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

It’s the Curragh this afternoon flying the Irish racing flag where Aidan O’Brien can take the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and a course and distance winner can land a six furlong handicap for Daniel Loughnane at decent odds.
 
Well done to Ryan Moore yesterday in getting it spot on in the King George on Conduit who beat our selection Tartan Bearer (9/2-7/2) with our place bet Alwaary (14-12/1) just losing out in fourth berth and failing to spoil the Stoute party in the process!

With the ground set to be soft at best at the Curragh today it makes sence to row in with horses of proven ability on an easy surface. The opening 10f handicap at 2-10 pits four 3yo against their elders and though the youngsters gave a good record in the past 8 years (3 wins) it could prove profitable to side with the older brigade members who have soft ground form in the book.

The one that ‘catches the eye’ here is the recent Fairyhouse handicap victor over the trip Master Marvel with Paul Townend taking off 3 of the 5lbs the handicapper gave to the Thomond O’Mara trained 8yo for his recent success. This fellow is a six time winner and though he can hardly be described as a ‘win machine’ in recent years he does thrive on a demanding surface and just failed by the minimum margin over course and distance to Coolcullen on heavy here in May off a similar mark. There are plenty of dangers and the best of these at a generous price is the Edward Harty trained mare Tovaria whose two wins have come over 6f and 7f but the 5yo mare did run quite well under a 7lb claimer when finishing fifth to the improving Taralga in the Ladies Derby over a mile and a half here a fortnight ago on heavy and she has since run creditably off a high weight at Bellewstown over 9f on yielding ground. The yard took this contest in 2007 with Baron D’el. Others who merit consideration are the Michael Grassick trained last time out course and distance winner Silver Tide who only went up a pound for her recent success and has the 7lb claimer Joseph O’Brien in the plate and the consistent Kevin Prendergast Final Approach who looks likely to go off favourite.
 
Alfred Nobel bids to give Aidan O’Brien his sixth win in the last 8 years in feature event on the Curragh card at 3-40 – the Phoenix Stakes. The son of Danehill Dancer took time to open his account and admittedly lost out narrowly on heavy ground over 6f on his second start before landing his maiden over 7f and he looked good in landing the Group 2 Railway Stakes about a month ago on good to yielding from two of todays rivals In Some Respect and King Ledley over todays trip of six furlongs.
 Assuming that the ground does not deteriorate appreciably he should confirm the form with those two but he does face a serious rival in the unbeaten filly Walk On Bye. Also by Danehill Dancer the Tommy Stack filly has recorded both her wins over course and distance and was impressive in disposing of King Ledley by a length and a half in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes on demanding ground (soft/heavy) two weeks ago. On a line through the runner up there should not be much between the progressive filly and our selection with her proven form on demanding ground another plus but the O’Brien candidate is also on an upward curve and in the ‘battle of the sexes’ he gets the nod to give Johnny Murtagh back to back successes in this contest following last years win on Mastercraftsman.
 
Kingsdale Ocean bids for back to back wins in the 6f handicap at the Curragh at 4-10 and his third in all here following his surprise success on good to firm last year but though he has won on soft at this venue the vote goes to another course and distance winner in First In Command. The three time winner over this trip – the most recent at Doncaster a month ago – boasts a course and distance win on soft here last year and the 4yo is just a pound higher now and has the help of the in form and useful 5lb claimer Gary Carroll. Irish Heartbeat is an unexposed 4yo who holds definite prospects on his close third over course and distance on penultimate start but though he has shown form on a softish surface he may just be better suited by better ground. Recent course and distance winner and 3yo Pax Soprano is a filly on the upgrade and the Edward Harty trained runner could prove competitive off a 11lbs higher mark.
 
ADVICE
BET 3pt win MASTER MARVEL 2-10 Curragh
BET 2pt win (saver) TOVARIA 2-10 Curragh
BET 5pt win (nap) ALFRED NOBEL 3-40 Curragh
BET 4pt win FIRST IN COMMAND 4-10 Curragh
BET 2pt win (saver) IRISH HEARTBEAT 4-10 Curragh

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Saturday's Return was: LOSS 5 points

 

Ireland's Eye on Saturday

Saturday 25 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

Though today is a busy day in England we will be taking it easy and flexing our muscles for the week long Galway Festival next week. However we will be siding with the Ryan Moore cast-off in the big race of the day and there also looks some value in a place bet on a longer priced and unexposed type in the same race.

Two more winners yesterday in the shape of Ovthenight (9/4-15/8) at Southwell and our saver Eyessess (7/4) at Wexford last night on a day when our run of winning naps came to an end.

Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien are responsible for two thirds of the runners in todays renewal of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with the former looking to hold ‘the whip hand’ with the trio of Ask, Conduit and Tartan Bearer carrying high hopes of landing the prestigious Group 1 contest at Ascot at 4-25 over a mile and a half.

Aidan O’Brien’s team is composed of likely pacemaker Rockhampton with Frozen Fire passed over in favour of Golden Sword by Johnny Murtagh. Last years Irish Derby winner Frozen Fire has not shown much this year and he is far from the most easy to predict but the Seamie Heffernan ridden gelding could cause a minor surprise while Golden Sword – winner of the Chester Vase from the front ran well in taking fourth to Sea The Stars in the Epsom Derby.

However the O’Brien team may have to play ‘second fiddle’ to the Stoute team on this occasion as last years Breeders Cup Turf winner Conduit steps up to 12f for the first time this year following two fine efforts over a mile and quarter and has the assistance of stable jockey Ryan Moore.

Stable mate Tartan Bearer must rate a danger and last years Epsom derby runner up just gets the vote under Mick Kinane despite the fact that the 4yo has not scored over the distance. But the son of Spectrum shapes as if this trip could be his ideal one and he just gets the vote to beat Conduit while the best place value could lie with the unexposed John Gosden trained 3yo Alwaary who looked somewhat unlucky when hampered at a vital stage when finishing a staying on runner up to a stable companion of the selection Doctor Freemantle in admittedly a less than vintage renewal of the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes at Newmarket over this trip last time out.

ADVICE
BET 4pt win TARTAN BEARER 4-25 Ascot
BET 1pt win 1pt place ALWAARY 4-25 Ascot

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Friday's Return was: LOSS 4.88 points

 

DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 25 July DAQMAN  HE’S THE KING: Daqman is back in form for the King George and takes aim at a big handicap pay-out today. BANKER UP: He landed his banker, Strawberrydaiquiri, yesterday to bring his winning bets to 93 in the current ton-up sequence. DOUBLE UP: He doubled Strawberry Daiquiri (won 4-6) with Vale Of York (won 4-1) for his second successive day in profit. LAY-DOWN: He has another maximum-stakes bet today and goes for his 250th successful lay since the column began (current strike rate 86%). In a case of Classic irony, the winner of the St Leger, a race condemned to obscurity by breeders, is likely to capture the King George at Ascot today for the first time in 50 years. The Leger has long been shunned by trainers of the top three-year-olds because of its distance; now the King George has lost the season’s jewels because it’s better for them to wait for the big-money Arc at Longchamp and the Breeders Cup. I toyed with Ask for today’s race, but didn’t get the rain; I might play with Alwaary each way, as he could be the improver. But the one that’s been there, done it and got the Group-1 teashirt is Conduit, winner of last year’s final Classic. I can’t see Tartan Bearer or Golden Sword having the finish; it’s simply not part of their make-up at this trip, and any forcing tactics by Team Ballydoyle will only play into the hands of Conduit, who loved the typical suicidal US early pace at Santa Anita last autumn. But judge for yourself in my ABC guide to the King George: Alwaary: No three-year-old has even turned up to run in the King George for three years now but, of the 13 second-season animals to take part in the last decade, the two who have won both had better than Alwaary’s Listed success to their name. However, Alwaary was unlucky not to land a blow for the three-year-olds in a Group-2 at the July meeting when he was hampered behind Doctor Fremantle. He’s had only five races in a very short career and has been in the first four every time. He clearly has scope for improvement, and is the best each-way bet with the ground on top at 18.0 on Betdaq this morning. Ask: Vulnerable to younger horses and would like some rain. But he’s won over the course and distance, and there was no fluke about his Coronation Cup win on officially good ground at Epsom, following a runaway success a grade lower at York. Older horses don’t win this but veterans like Yeats and Caracciola have poked fun at such stats in recent years and, if anyone can improve a horse to this level late in its career, that man is Sir Michael Stoute. Ask would be following in the footsteps of the last older horse to win, five-year-old Daylami, who likewise won the Coronation Cup the same 50 days before the King George. Conduit: Favourites have won the last five King Georges (seven of the last 10), and this one powered to the front of the market as the selection of champion jockey Ryan Moore, though he said his decision over Tartan Bearer was ‘a close call.’ Nine of the last 10 winners have finished first or second on their latest start, but Conduit was seen off into the minor placing in the Eclipse by Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle. That trip was clearly too short for a winner of the St Leger (2008) on soft ground, though he took the 12-furlong Breeders Cup Turf at Santa Anita on firm. The last St Leger winner to score in the King George was Alcide in 1959. Frozen Fire: In the favoured four-year-old bracket and a Group-1 winner, though his Irish Derby supremacy over Tartan Bearer has a long-awaited revenge match here, since Tartan Bearer was carried left as they fought out the finish that day. The son of a King George winner (Montjeu) has let the form down since by his defeats in the St Leger (behind Conduit) and the Coronation Cup (behind Ask). His rating corresponds to Duke Of Marmalade’s, the 2008 winner, but that rating is the lowest for a King George hero of the last decade and he has been rejected by Johnny Murtagh, who prefers Golden Sword. Golden Sword: Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times and this one could provide his King George hat-trick following Dylan Thomas and Duke Of Marmalade. Golden Sword is clearly the chosen three-year-old of the O’Brien yard and, if any man can turn over the older horses, it’s the whispering leprechaun, who did it with Galileo in 2001. Though he made all in the Chester Vase, Golden Sword started 25-1 for the Epsom Derby, his primary purpose seemingly to set a good pace for Team Ballydoyle, though some expected him to be placed. He didn’t set a good enough pace. And he wasn’t placed. Three of the last 10 winners of the King George had won the Irish Derby but Golden Sword was made to appear pedestrian in this year’s finish at The Curragh - by a flying Fame And Glory - in a performance which looked more like that of a St Leger winner. Look Here: A filly hasn’t won this since 1983 and, though Look Here set alight the Epsom stands with a scintillating 2008 Oaks victory, she was only third to Conduit in the St Leger, third – albeit narrowly - to Ask in this year’s Coronation Cup, and third yet again in the Pretty Polly Stakes. She’s not even my third choice today. Rockhampton: The 420.0 trade on Betdaq says more than I can in mere words. Surely not a Ballydoyle runner to fear, except for his ability to burn off the opposition’s early pace. Scintillo: Won a Group-2 at Chantilly in the Spring, but his finishing eight lengths in front of Frozen Fire in the Ormonde was in only ‘a joke race’, according to onlookers who watched the three runners dawdle round the Chester bends. The Michael Stoute camp know all about him since their Spanish Moon had him way back in seventh in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud at the end of June after he ‘boiled over’ before the race. Not his true form, then, but still doesn’t get me warmed up.   Tartan Bearer: He hasn’t won over the distance. He hasn’t won a Group 1. He’s been deserted by Ryan Moore. But he’s had a light campaign in which he has been placed (second) in the best recent King George trial, the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes: three of the last four winners ran in it. In his last race over 1m 4f, he was carried left when with the leader in the 2008 Irish Derby won by Frozen Fire. But today’s race will be run right at the end of his stamina and that form line suggests that there are no surprises under his kilt. 1.25 ASCOT: Very few horses here have won on a straight course: Pravda Street (11.0) will take some catching but Golden Desert will try. 3.10 YORK: Ascot without Frankie Dettori will lose some of its shine. Since the York Stakes is a Group-2, expect a flying dismount if Kirklees wins for him on the Knavesmire. Frankie is ideally placed on the rail to dictate the race; only heavy rain would let in Curtain Call. 3.45 YORK: Dandy Nicholls’ runners guarantee the pace for the low numbers, where his Tajneed is a massive price, trading 17.0 on the Daq as I write. Knot In Wood has his conditions. 3.50 ASCOT: This is a real tough pace race with Crackdown for the low numbers and Roaring Forte on the other side: Captain Brilliance and Secret Society should overhaul ‘Forte’ and expect Racer Forever (13.5 this morning) - has been working well with Rainbow View – to weave through down the stands’ rail. His trainer, John Gosden, who has had four placed in this from five runners, won it with a six-year-old in 1999: Racer Forever, second in 2007, has finally had some luck with the draw. 4.50 YORK: There’s no reason on the book why Hawk Mountain should be favourite for this return match with Nemo Spirit, who is 5lb better with his rival though he beat him convincingly on similar ground over CD six weeks ago.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place PRAVDA STREET, and 1pt win GOLDEN DESERT (1.25 Ascot) BET 2pts win on each EMERALD GIRL and GERTMEGALUSH (2.05 York) BET 2pts win and place CHAPTER AND VERSE, and 2pts win (saver) KING CHARLES (2.20 Newmarket) BET 6pts win KIRKLEES (3.10 York) BET 1pt win and place on each TAJNEED and KNOT IN WOOD (3.45 York) WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 4pts win and 1pt place RACER FOREVER, plus (savers) 1pt win on each CAPTAIN BRILLIANCE, CRACKDOWN and SECRET SOCIETY (all 3.50 Ascot). BET 6pts win CONDUIT, and 1pt win and place ALWAARY (4.25 Ascot); already 1pt win ante-post ASK at 13.5. LAY to win 10pts HAWK MOUNTAIN (4.50 York) BET 2pts win and place MAXWELL HAWKE (5.25 York) BANKER 10pts win WOVOKA (5.50 Newcastle) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Friday's Return was: PROFIT 11.21 points
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More

Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Preview

Saturday 25 July

Join Sky Sports Pundit ED CHAMBERLIN in his regular Weekend Sports Preview below. Simply press play below to tune into Ed's exclusive DAQCAST - covering a whole host of weekend betting opportunities on the DAQ including the Tour de France, racing but Ed starts with the Ashes.....

ED CHAMBERLIN'S WEEKEND BETTING PREVIEW

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Ireland's Eye on Friday

Friday 24 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

It is only 3 days to go to the eagerly awaited Galway races fest and we will be looking at the value bets on their cards over the next seven days starting on Monday. Southwell this afternoon where a former point winner can be on the mark in a novice handicap chase and a maiden can land a Wexford two mile maiden hurdle this evening at decent odds.
 
4 Naps in a row. Victory for Armenian Boy (9/2-4/1) at Uttoxeter yesterday gave us our fourth nap winner in the past five days (one non runner) and we followed that with another brace of winners in Ireland with Montero (5/4-6/5) landing a chase at Limerick from our next best and place suggestion War Of The World (10-8/1) and at Leopardstown Cape Blanco (4/5 morn-1/2) scored in style in one of the featured Group 3 races. Additionally our sole lay of the day Information at 7/2 could only finish runner up in the novice chase at Limerick.

The 2m 1f novice handicap chase at Southwell this evening at 3-25 could see the former point winner My Pal Val score at his second attempt in this sphere under capable 5lb claimer Danny Cook for the Young yard. The 9yo former maiden hurdle winner (2005) is fairly unexposed despite his age and he has followed up his point success earlier this year with two solid efforts over fences. His chase debut saw him crash out at the last when holding a moderate placing second to all the way winner Dan Ryan at Newton Abbot over 2m 5 1/2f and the drop in distance to 2m at Worcester resulted in a modest third placing behind Tanmeya (disappointed subsequently) but he would have finished a lot closer but for slipping badly at the last there. Another unexposed type here is the Don Cantillon trained 4yo Joshua on his chase debut but he would have prospects on some of his hurdle starts and the Leighton Aspell ridden gelding rates a danger for the in form yard.
 
Persian Warrior and Danetime Panther look set to dominate the betting in the 2m 1f novice at Southwell this evening at 4-35 following their last time out wins at Uttoxeter and Worcester respectively over two miles. However the former was far from convincing in land his second hurdle and has to carry the penalty while Danetime Panther could be somewhat suspect in the staying department despite his solid performance in landing a ‘touch’ from two rivals who have not boosted the form in the interim. A chance is taken with the two time flat winner and 4yo Ovthenight from the Pam Sly yard who has been showing fair and consistent form over flights of late before landing some wagers in taking a less than ‘top notch’ Market Rasen handicap over 2m 1 1/2f on latest and on official rating he has little to find on the principals in the betting.
 
Ruby Walsh gets the leg up on the frustrating Eyeffess for the first time this evening at Wexford in a 2m maiden hurdle at 6-35 and the Philip Rothwell trained 8yo will start favourite to land his first hurdle win from 14 starts and open his career account at the 22nd attempt. Though he boasts a couple of fair efforts in similar course and distance maidens in the past and succeeded in taking second to the surprise winner Orpen Guama in a competitive looking Killarney handicap hurdle over a furlong further 8 days ago he does not rate value at the forecast price and we will instead side with another maiden!
Paul Townend gets the mount on the Michael Moran trained 6yo Betabob who is also on a winnerless run of 13 but he can make the breakthrough at the sixth attempt in a handicap here following some decent placed efforts behind such useful yardsticks as Kennel Bridge and Lightening Sky whilst his latest close enough third to the improving Inis Ceithleann at Killarney over 2m 1f should be good enough to go close here despite the fact that the handicapper reckons he has 6lbs to find with Eyeffess.
 
Flying Ensign gets the vote to land the 2m handicap hurdle at Wexford tonight for the Helen Markham stable. The unexposed 4yo filly has shown promise since being sent over hurdles and the daughter of Traditionally was only beaten less than a length in a bunch finish to a competitive Roscommon handicap hurdle over this trip 17 days ago. The winner of that contest Media Queen has followed up at Ballinrobe in the meanwhile whilst the runner up Hopeful Venture took a Limerick 2m 4f mares maiden hurdle last night. Course and distance winner and likely favourite Cylindar Rattler rates the obvious danger on the back of his snug success here three weeks ago and though the handicapper has had his say in lumping the Rothwell trained 6yo with an 11lb penalty the Davy Russell ridden gelding still looks competitive off this mark.
 
ADVICE 
BET 4pt win MY PAL VAL 3-25 Southwell
BET 1pt win (saver) JOSHUA 3-25 Southwell
BET 3pts win OVTHENIGHT 4-35 Southwell
BET 4pt win BETABOB 6-35 Wexford
BET 2pt win (saver) EYEFFESS 6-35 Wexford
BET 4pt win (nap) FLYING ENSIGN 7-05 Wexford
BET 1pt win (saver) CYLINDAR RATTLER 7-05 Wexford

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Thursday's Return was: PROFIT 14 points

 

DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 24 July DAQMAN  90 WINNING BETS: Air Maze yesterday provided Daqman with his 90th winning bet in the last 40 days. 57 POINTS UP IN JULY: His profit to date for July is 58 points, with his winners including Moonage Daydream (12-1), Dickie Le Davoir (11-1) and Total Gallery (11-1). LAYS ON 85%: Daqman’s current lays sequence is 45 out of the last 53 at a strike rate of 85%. Sir Michael Stoute is on course to top £20million in British prizemoney won over the last eight years, if he keeps going at his current rate to the end of the season. Stoute heads the 2009 trainers’ list, despite having no big Classic earner: this column yesterday praised one major source of income, his penchant for improving older horses. Today he shows off another, his ability with fillies: Stoute also has runners at Newmarket tonight but Strawberrydaiquiri (3.50 Ascot) and Ave (7.30 York) are at Listed level and, whenever I can get top-class handicaps, Listed or Group, that’s where I want to be, on the basis that, at that level, the form can be relied on. Strawberrydaiquiri is in a race the Newmarket-based trainer has won three times and it usually sees the three-year-olds getting the better of their older rivals (six out of seven). Trades this morning were 8-1 bar one, which rather summarises the form, without my doing so. At York, Ave has it tougher: she has Oaks third High Heeled and last year’s winner, Sweet Lily, to beat not to mention previously Group placed Short Affair. But I’m getting no strong vibes from the Channon gallops about Sweet Lily, whose wins have been on top of the ground and she’s not been at her best first time back in previous seasons. The Cumani filly, on the other hand, has run all her best races caught fresh, and has had her win. High Heeled disappointed in the Yorkshire Oaks and this is a consolation prize. That form still sets the target, since Ave has won only a handicap, but I’ll bank on improvement from the Stoute filly and save on the ‘bridesmaid’, High Heeled. Mark Johnston has Alanbrooke (4.25) returning to the scene of his latest win higher in the handicap but facing lower-class animals, with the possible exception of Darley Sun. That one gets a stone from the other three-year-old but is a front or van runner up in trip, and no doubt the Johnson plan will be to force the issue and test the Simcock challenger’s stamina. Fascinating stuff but a disappointing field for the Brown Jack Stakes. Johnson has won the 10-furlong handicap (5.00) three times in the last decade and William Blake, second last year, has nothing of the class of subsequent Group-3 winner Buccellati to beat this time, and is down 3lb in the ratings, though all his wins have come early in the year. They are much of a muchness this lot, and you’d expect Fanjura to be quite short in the market but not so; there was certainly little confidence at 6.0 this morning. I’m going to take a chance that Wise Dennis – at 21.0 on the Daq as I write – will bounce back after a break; he’s won twice on the course, so connections have probably had this race in mind since freshening him up. Similarly, a return to form is possible for Isphahan (5.35) as the only class-2 winner in the race - including over course and distance - and down in the weights. Godolphin horses seldom seem to show in the market but I was a bit surprised to see Iron Velvet (7.00 York) odds on this morning against the Godolphin debutant, Vale Of York. Vale Of York impressively beat his lead, Crime Scene, on the gallops and that one has picked up a Listed since. Iron Velvet has race experience and is bred for today’s soft ground but will need to put that experience to good use. Bonnie Prince Blue (6.30) has a rails draw on the ground he loves, and is five from seven when fresh and running over his optimum distance in the right conditions: 8.8 on the Daq this morning.
TODAY'S BETS
BANKER 10pts win STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI (3.50 Ascot) BET 1pt win and place WISE DENNIS (5.00 Ascot) BET 1pt win and place ISPHAHAN (5.35 Ascot) BET 1pt win and place BONNIE PRINCE BLUE (6.30 York) BET 5pts win on each AVE and HIGH HEELED (7.30 York) DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win double Strawberrydaiquiri with Vale Of York (7.00 York). We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Thursday's Return was: PROFIT 4.5 points
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Ireland's Eye on Thursday

Thursday 23 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

Today is a busy day with fixtures at Uttoxeter this evening where David Pipe looks to have prospects of a double while in Ireland there are two interesting Group 3 contests at Leopardstown where Aidan O’Brien and Jessica Harrington could be on the mark. Limerick stages an all National hunt meeting and three former point to point winners can land a couple of chases and a hurdle.
 
Saver Stratford Roller (4/1) proved our only return on a mixed and quite day while our choices in the novice hurdle at Worcester Passato (8/1) and Dead Or Alive (4-7/4) filled the placings. Turbo Shandy (11/2-3/1) was another well backed selection to fill the frame.

The extended 2m 6f novice chase at Uttoxeter at 2-35 brings together a few generally disappointing sorts who have not yet delivered over fences. Former pointer Baron De Doc from the Tim Vaughan yard is a course winner over 2m 5f over hurdles but the 6yo has failed to justify favouritism on his last three starts over fences and though he only lost out by a length in a couple of Market Rasen three mile events on last couple he looks opposable again although the suspicion that easier ground could be in his favour. Evan Williams 8yo Cannon Fire is also a course winner but though he is consistent he is now on a losing run of 13 over fences. With Jonjo O’Neill’s yard in flying form the chances of the chase debutant Sea Cliff – a winner on the all weather and a Huntingdon 2m 5f novice hurdle – must be taken seriously with McCoy in the saddle. However we will side with the David Pipe trained Armenian Boy who is another with losses to recoup as the Tom Scudamore ridden 6yo has failed to justify favouritism twice but he has been beaten soundly by two fair types in Flemross and Mhilu (Johnjo O’Neill) on fast ground but he has scored four times when soft was in the ground description (3 in France) and he gets the vote to beat Sea Cliff here.
 
Irish trainer Gordon Elliott looks to have high hopes of a double on the Uttoxeter card (Cooksgrove Lady looks unopposable in opener) with the facile Worcester winner Dirar in the extended 2m 4f handicap hurdle at 3-45. Though the unexposed dual flat winner gets a mandatory 7lb penalty for his last time out success this looks a much tougher assignment and the Seamus Durack ridden 4yo is opposed (again) on this occasion. The Llewellyn trained 8yo Winged D’Argent is another who is relatively unexposed over hurdles with a win in an Exeter 2m 1f novice on his hurdle debut from 4 starts and he will be suited by the easy ground here and he should be suited by the trip as he scored over two miles on the flat. Top weight Hi Dancer boasts a good strike rate over hurdles (5 wins from 15 starts) and the Pat Haslam trained 6yo has scored over this trip and has acted on a softish surface. Others to consider are the Oliver Sherwood trained Major Miller who appeared not to get home over 3m over the course last time while the long standing Tony Carroll handled That Man Fox is another who will be suited by trip and ground off a light weight.
 
Roger McGraths Flash Scan created a good impression when landing a Lisgoold maiden (yielding) on his second start earlier this year and the Needle Gun 5yo can register his second win on the track by taking the opening 2m 4f maiden hurdle at Limerick this evening at 5-40. His two runs under Rules were on this track in bumpers where he followed up a third placing on heavy ground with a fine win over the admittedly average Buoy George on faster ground over a fortnight ago under a 7lb claimer. Richie Kiely takes off 5lbs this evening and the combination of decent ground and a step up in trip can see the improving sort account for the Charlie Swan runner Corporate Account who shaped reasonably well in taking fourth to the progressive Warne on heavy over this trip on his hurdling bow. He will be suited by better ground while the Denise Foster trained Ituptoyou is another who boasts consistent placed hurdle form and the 5yo enters calculations on the evidence of his second to Stradbally at Sligo over two miles last time.
 
Just five runners for one of the feature races of the night at Leopardstown the Tyros Stakes over 7f at 6-30 which went to the Aidan O’Brien trained Rip Van Winkle last year. However though O’Brien supplies two of the five contenders here this looks an open contest. With soft ground forecast the Seamie Heffernan ridden Tipperary winner Kingdom Of Munster is one of the few likely to appreciate the ground having delivered at long odds on at Tipperary on heavy on his debut but his stable mate Cape Blanco with Johnny Murtagh in the plate looks the one to beat on his workmanlike and narrow win over the more experienced Baglioni at Fairyhouse on good ground. Marfach delivered at the third time of asking at Roscommon for Jim Bolger while Ger Lyons Perfect Symmetry is the only dual scorer in the line up following up his narrow course and distance win with a win in a Listed Fairyhouse contest last time. The main danger to Aidan O’Briens Cape Blanco could come from the Jessica Harrington trained Miracle Match who followed up his promising third to Emperor Claudius with an all the way success in a 6f Naas maiden and the step up in distance looks sure to suit the Fran Berry ridden gelding.
 
The Gigginstown owned and Mouse Morris trained War Of The World has generally been somewhat disappointing since landing his sole win ‘between the flags’ as a 4yo in a decent Crecora maiden, despite scoring twice under Rules in the interim. However the now 7yo gets a decent chance to record his second win over fences when he faces three other chase winners and 9 rivals in the 2m 6f chase at Limerick tonight at 7-15. Though he faded badly from the second last at Kilbeggan over 3m 1f (handicap) last time the Davy Russell ridden gelding is clearly suited by a less demanding test of stamina and this contest gives him a decent chance to return to winning ways with good ground also likely to be in favour of the 109 rated chaser. Val O’Briens 10yo sprang a surprise when scoring at his second attempt over fences at this trip at Killarney last time when beating the well supported ex three time point winner Toby Jug by a length but that Michael Hourigan trained 8yo could now turn the tables on 5lbs better terms and with Ruby Walsh in the saddle. However the one to beat has to be former point winner Montero who boasts success in a bumper and a couple of hurdles before making a winning debut over fences when overcoming a last fence ‘hiccup’ to land a Wexford 3m 1f novice event three weeks ago. Though the Dessie Hughes trained 7yo would be suited by a longer trip and the price is quite skinny the Roger Loughran ridden gelding can score here at the expense of War Of The World who rates sound place value.
 
A 2m 3 1/2f novice chase at Limerick at 7-45 which on the face of it will not take much winning and the market is headed by the John Paul Brennan trained Maralin point winner Information (good ground) who is a maiden after 13 efforts on the track to date. The 7yo is opposable on those stats alone and in a contest where there is plenty of former point to point form to go on the vote goes to the Johnny O’Callaghan trained mare Castle Lake. This one proved somewhat exasperating ‘between the flags’ and she ran up a sequence of placings before ‘breaking her duck’ at Bartlemy in 2007 and her last run saw her land a competitive mares event at Kinsale in late May of this term. However she is well suited by good or better ground and normally travels well in her races and in Paul Townend she has the perfect partner to deliver her late with the trip being the only slight drawback. However at the odds she rates a punt and her main danger could come from another point winner in the Danny O’Connell trained Capdalight who beat the subsequent fair handicap hurdler In The Haven on heavy to land his maiden point at Kilfeacle last year and he would rate a big danger if able to reproduce his fourth placing to Quintana over 2m 1f on his chase debut at this venue if the application of blinkers (replacing cheek pieces) works the oracle.
 
ADVICE
BET 5pt win (nap) ARMENIAN BOY 2-35 Uttoxeter
BET 1pt win (saver) SEA CLIFF 2-35 Uttoxeter
BET 3pt win HI DANCER 3-45 Uttoxeter
BET 2pt win (saver) WINGED D’ARGENT 3-45 Uttoxeter
BET 4pt win FLASH SCAN 5-40 Limerick
BET 2pt win (saver) CORPORATE ACCOUNT 5-40 Limerick
BET 4pt win CAPE BLANCO 6-30 Leopardstwon
BET 2pt win (saver) MIRACLE MATCH 6-30 Leopardstown
BET 5pt win MONTERO 7-15 Limerick
BET 1pt win 1pt place WAR OF THE WORLD 7-15 Limerick
BET 4pt win 1pt place CASTLE LAKE 7-45 Limerick
BET 2pt win (saver) CAPDALIGHT 7-45 Limerick
BET lay to win 6pts INFORMATION 7-45 Limerick

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Wednesday's Return was: LOSS 20 points

 

DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 23 July DAQMAN  ANTE-POST SPECIALS: A new big race season of Ascot, Goodwood and York – right through to the St Leger - starts tomorrow and Daqman dips his toe in the water with two big-race outsiders. TRUTH ABOUT THE KING GEORGE GALLOPS: What really happened on the gallops that prompted the champion jockey, Ryan Moore, to choose Conduit for Saturday’s King George? Daqman has the blow-by-blow account. LEGER LONG-SHOT: But first he names an outsider for the Leger, a colt which starts its Doncaster countdown at Goodwood next week. LOOK OUT TOMORROW for analysis of all the big meetings with the man who last week ended a run of 227 points profit in 22 days and the previous week completed 13 lays on the trot. Harbingers are proverbially associated with doom and, after my getting it all wrong this week, you might have difficulty in thinking otherwise about my ante-post tip for the St Leger. St Leger? What about Ascot and Goodwood? Well, Harbinger runs in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on Tuesday en route to the Voltigeur and, as usual, there’s a point or two of ‘overs’ in Betdaq trades (12.0) for Doncaster that you’ll need to grab now before he shows his true colours. I was given Harbinger for the Derby, and he was down to 25-1 for Epsom after winning impressively at Chester in May; he’s had muscle problems but is now expected to make up for lost time. I’m going to take the occasional trade from now until the Leger as – I hope – evidence emerges that Harbinger is one of the hidden stars of the season. As for the King George on Saturday, there are some ‘overs’ there, too, for a Harbinger stablemate from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, more than four points better than the Tote, in fact. If you want me to choose between Ryan Moore on Conduit and Mick Kinane on Tartan Bearer, I’d rather you Ask me another. I know Ask is six-years-old but that’s the whole point: Stoute is a genius with older horses and this one has really come good this season, with plenty of evidence from the gallops that Olivier Peslier’s mount should not be 13.5. Conduit was the first of the Stoute King George trio to work on Saturday; led by a maiden, he moved nicely in a strong mile gallop. Conduit sat two or three lengths adrift of his work companion but, in the final two furlongs, moved promisingly upsides, travelling kindly before moving on a couple of lengths clear. Tartan Bearer caught the eye, staying on late in his gallop (also 8f) to get the better of the Ryan Moore partnered Zacinto (this one, incidentally, looks to be really coming to himself). So it was that Moore got his look at both King George favourites. The pair, led by highly regarded handicapper Tryst, strode out to some purpose, with Tartan Bearer edging Zacinto by half a length under hand riding. Good work. But most impressive of the morning was Ask, who really lit up the gallops, led at a strong pace by the smart miler Perfect Stride (J D Smith); there was no hanging about. The pair quickened up smartly, with Ask moving upsides with two furlongs to go, then really picking up impressively to stride clear by an easy three lengths. The Coronation Cup winner was in really good form, and 13.5 on Betdaq this morning must be taken with, on the day, some more each way if the rains come. The clincher for the son of Sadlers Wells will be tomorrow’s weather: Ask needs some cut in the ground, as he showed when winning the Yorkshire Cup. He was outpaced in the King George on a firm surface last year but is a different animal this time around and the forecasters say ‘heavy rain’ for Friday.  Between them Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien have seven of the King George field of 11. We’ve already reached the time of year when O’Brien has us guessing his best two-year-olds: Cape Blanco (Johnny Murtagh) and Kingdom Of Munster (Seamie Heffernan), both first time winners, clash in the Tyros Stakes (6.30 Leopardstown), won last year by Rip Van Winkle. There could also be a ‘proper’ two-year-old in the fillies’ Listed at Sandown (3.20), which has produced Fred Darling (Muthabara) and Prix de Diane (Confidential Lady) winners in the last four years. John Dunlop (Mudaarah) has won it three times but all the winners since 2002 had scored last time out, two each at Newbury and Yarmouth. Middle Club and Mistic Magic best fit the stats. The two others that won last time out, Bahati and Gallic Star, have not scored over the distance but Gallic Star is key for us today as we look for a good bet tonight at Folkestone. Interakt (7.00) has strong maiden form and was impressive at home working with Gallic Star and Lucky Leigh. If Gallic Star gets in the ‘three’, I shall be looking to go banco on Interakt; as it is, at 3.95 as I write, I shall bet six points. The 15.5 trades about Kingswinford for Doncaster (7.20) are the ‘wrong’ price: he loves soft ground and a straight, open track and has now dropped to a mark close to the one which enabled him to land two nurseries out of three at Newbury last season. Russian Spirit looks the obvious threat but Michael Jarvis’s team just hasn’t been as reliable as in previous seasons. As a Danehill Dancer filly, Steel Free (7.50) should be in her element tonight, having already won on good to soft on her debut: handicapping could be her game and, at 13.5 on the Daq this morning, she seemed good value each way. The grey Prescription is her problem. She returns from a long lay-off and is up 13lb from her last winning weight, but Sir Mark Prescott’s stable is back on form after a virus and this Pivotal filly – so she will like the ground - is top weight because she is the best in the race. Anyone who saw her blast eight lengths clear of her lead, Cecily, in a recent gallop would not be worried about fitness. Again, afternoon racing should be a key to evening events: another Prescott filly, Air Maze (5.10 Bath), has won all her gallops at home. Surely an ‘if lose’ on the Prescott pair can work the oracle third time lucky this week.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win AIR MAZE (5.10 Bath), if lose 8pts win PRESCRIPTION (7.50 Doncaster) BET 6pts win INTERAKT (7.00 Folkestone) BET 1pt win and place KINGSWINFORD and 2pts win (saver) RUSSIAN SPIRIT (7.20 Doncaster) BET 1pt win and place STEEL FREE (7.50 Doncaster) ANTE-POST: 1pt win ASK (at 13.5, King George) ANTE-POST: 1pt win HARBINGER (at 12.0, St Leger) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: LOSS 33 points
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DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 22 July DAQMAN  14.0 BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman hunts down a 14.0 value trade on Betdaq for tonight at Sandown. ANOTHER LAY: He hopes to pay for his evening bets with a lay at Lingfield this afternoon It seems obvious really: if you have a winning formula, don’t change it. The second rule of racing is that there is no quick way to winning money. I ignored both yesterday. And paid for it. As my reader knows, my usual (winning) habit on yesterday’s Prescott horses – Alicante and Uncle Brit – would have been an ‘if lose’ bet: say, six points Alicante, if lose eight points Uncle Brit. In the event, I would have won but, at the trades on show to me when I was writing, the bet wasn’t viable. I chose some attacking doubles instead, because I was trying to reach 100 winners by Friday. If only I’d known Alicante would be 7-4! Let’s see if I can get back on track today, reverting to that tried-and-trusted if-lose formula.  Saeed bin Suroor, who is showing a remarkable 21 placed (10 of them winners) from 31 runners in the last fortnight, including nine of his last 11 runners, must surely win with one of his pair, Emirates Sports (7.40) and Burgundy Ice (8.15) at Sandown tonight. Emirates Sports has to transfer his good AW form to turf, and I shall also try to find an outsider in that race. But Burgundy Ice (8.15) looks interesting, kept in training despite a setback, and in a race where favourites are unbeaten since its inception three years ago. My outsider in Emirates Sports’ race, at 14.0 on Betdaq this morning, is Sohcahtoa, appearing for the first time since being gelded; with Patrick Hill’s 3lb claim, he is a pound short of a stone lower than for his last handicap. Betting in nurseries is a dangerous occupation; the eye immediately goes to a Hannon runner or an interesting lightweight, and we have both at Leicester (6.45). The problem with the lightweight, Duke Of Rainford, is that he wore blinkers for the first time when dead-heating last week and the stats warn that second time in the blinds doesn’t often produce the same result; in fact, he’s drifted like a dog on a raft this morning, out to 10.0 as I write. The Hannon isn’t much fancied either, Folletta being easy to back at 9.6. The one they want is Military Call but I shall take the 6.8 each way On The Bounty; the place at 1.96 gets me my win stake back to within a few coppers. Richard Fahey can do no wrong this season and On The Bounty is back to the kind of surface which saw him get off the mark in the Spring. Roger Charlton, on the other hand, has had a modest season so far and, for a capable man such as he, it’s no doubt because of the modest nature of his ammunition: like Souter Point (4.30 Lingfield). Souter Point is consistent: consistent in defeat. He’s had several chances to win moderate contests and half a dozen decent yards taking part in this could have something progressive to catch him out again. If Souter Point loses, the profit covers all my bets tonight as far as the end leg of my if-lose bet. I’ll hope to leave that one on ice!
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 10pts SOUTER POINT (4.30 Lingfield) BET 2pts win and place ON THE BOUNTY (6.45 Leicester) BET 1pt win and place SOHCAHTOA (7.40 Sandown) BET 4pts win EMIRATES SPORTS (7.40 Sandown), if lose 8pts win BURGUNDY ICE (8.15 Sandown) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Tuesday's Return was: LOSS 24 points
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