Ireland's Eye on Saturday

Saturday 11 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

Today is the start of the two day Oaks meeting at the Curragh and the Group 3’s Minstrel and International Stakes sees an English challenger in each but with the ground likely to prove on the easy side there chances could be compromised. The feature at Ascot can go to a course specialist while in Ireland a decent priced older horse can take one of the handicaps.
 
Three good priced winners yesterday swelled the coffers as the EYE was on the mark with his nap Rockadare at 7/1 in a maiden hurdle at Cork while Captain Henry (4-7/2) and Belle’s Ridge (9/4) both landed flat handicaps at Gowran. Additionally saver Winds Of War (3-11/4) and Essex (3-5/2) also finished in the frame while our sole ‘lay’ of the day Quinmaster (6/1) was out of the money in the opener at Cork.

Todays renewal of the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot at 2-50 does not look the strongest and though the course specialist Cesare is not exactly in the ‘first flush of youth’ the James Fanshawe trained 8yo can land this prize for the second time and add to his 2007 success. Though he failed to justify favouritism when finishing third in last year renewal behind Archipenko he made a pleasing seasonal debut when finishing second (but no match) for the useful Paco Boy in the Queen Anne Stakes here at the Royal meeting nearly a month ago. He is taken to confirm form with the third there the unexposed Aqlaam from the Haggas yard while the Mike De Kock trained Imbongi bids to give his South African trainer back to back successes in the contest following the victory of Archipenko last year. The best saver could be in siding with Ray Beckett’s Without A Prayer who landed a Listed Windsor contest in fine style over a similar trip a fortnight ago and there could be more to come from the Richard Kingscote ridden 4yo.
 
A 6f handicap at 3-30 at the Curragh not surprisingly poses a teaser with 23 runners forecast to face the starter. As always there can be value in such contests (if the price is right) and we will side with the Adrian McGuinness 8yo Parc Aux Boules who has scored over the trip and has shown decent form at this venue and finished a fair third over 5f her on soft over a fortnight ago. Six furlongs and a decent draw on easy ground could see the dual winner bag this prize under promising 7lb claimer Gary Carroll. Dangers abound and one of the least exposed in the field is the 4yo Jim Bolger filly Bipasha off a low weight under 4lb claimer Danny Mullins. The maiden was just beaten over this trip at Naas in a decent time last time on good to yielding and rates a danger if the ground does not deteriorate appreciably. The ex Clive Brittain trained Nice Dream made all to make a winning Irish debut at Down royal over 7f recently and is another to consider with James Ryan’s Qeyaada off a high weight but the 4yo filly boasts decent course form and has the assistance of 7lb claimer Joseph O’Brien to partly offset the 12lb rise she received for her ready Naas win on admittedly faster ground.
 
The Keenland Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh today at 4-00 looks set to be a fascinating contest and there can be cases made for most of the 9 strong field in this 7f Group 3 race.
 With the first three home in last years renewal looking set to go head to head again there should not be much between last years victor and course specialist Jumbajukiba, Al Qasi and Georgebernardshaw again this time around. Jessica Harringtons Jumbajukiba front running 6yo needs a good ‘cut’ in the ground to be seen to best effect but he is a five time winner around here and there now looks every chance that he will have his favoured surface as he holds prospects on the strength of his recent second placings over 6f and a mile here in the Greenland Stakes and a Listed contest. Al Qasi was well supported in this race last year and though the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained 6yo is a course winner (6f Group 3 in 2007) he may not reverse form with last years winner who lost ground at the start and the suspicion is that this trip could just stretch his reserves as he has not scored over 7f+ in 11 tries. Dermot Welds mare Mad About Ya comes out best on official ratings and the 4yo daughter of Indian Ridge landed the Group 3 Gladness Stakes in April from one of todays rivals Dohasa with Jumbajukiba and Georgebernardshaw behind. Although she failed to justify favouritism when second in the Athasi Stakes on heavy ground in the meanwhile she holds a favourites chance here nevertheless. Ger Lyons Dohasa is another not to have won over this trip but the 4yo could be inconvencied by the forecast rain but has prospects as he finished a close third in a valuable Nad Al Sheba over 6 ½ furlongs earlier this year and in addition to his second to Mad About Ya in the Gladness he only just failed to Duff in the Ballychorus Stakes at Leopardstown on latest over this distance. Georgebernardshaw has not delivered on his earlier promise and looks held by some of the principals here. The latter Ballychorus Stakes could hold the key to the outcome of this contest as the well supported but somewhat luckless Three Rocks was staying on again late in proceedings having lost his pitch when finishing about 2 ½ lengths by Dohasa. However with the ground riding in his favour course specialist Jumbajujukiba gets the vote ahead of Three Rocks and Dohasa.
 
Dermot Weld holds the key to the Keeneland International Stakes over 9f with his recent course winner Famous Name at 4-30. The 4yo is a decent tool at his best and went down narrowly in the French Derby last year before gaining some consolation in landing a brace of Listed contests at Leoparstown and most recently here in the Celebration Stakes over a mile in easy fashion from Jumbajukiba. He is likely to get some ‘juice’ in the ground he could be hard to beat but he is not one to take a short price about and he faces a dangerous rival here in the shape of the Waler Swinburn trained Staying On if the ground remains on the good side. A four time winner up to a mile the Alan Kirby ridden 4yo ran arguably his finest race when just failing by a short head to repel the subsequent Princess Of Wales winner Doctor Fremantle over 10f in the Group 3 Huxley Stakes at Chester and subsequently was far from disgraced when beaten just over two lengths in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown over a similar trip. Nevertheless he probably will play ‘second fiddle’ to the short priced favourite if the forecast rain arrives.
 
ADVICE
3pt win CESARE 2-50 Ascot
2pt win (saver) WITHOUT A PRAYER 2-50 Ascot
3pt win PARC AUX BOULES 3-30 Curragh
1pt win (savers) BIPASHA and QEYAADA 3-30 Curragh
5pt win (nap) JUMBAJUKIBA 4-00 Curragh
2pt win (saver) THREE ROCKS 4-00 Curragh
5pt win FAMOUS NAME 4-30 Curragh
 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Friday's Return was: PROFIT 40.5 points