Ireland's Eye on Monday

Monday 13 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

Its Newton Abbot this evening over jumps and a mixed card at picturesque Killarney this evening and there looks to be a couple of long priced value bets at the former fixture while a course specialist can land the featured chase at the Kerry venue.
 
Trainer Johnjo O’Neill helped us to a a brace of generously priced winners yesterday in Donaldson (9/2) and Englishtown (5-9/2) in a hurdle and chase at Stratford and Southwell while our saver He’s A Hotshot (5/2-9/4) finally ‘broke his duck’ under Rules in a handicap chase at Perth. Though another saver King Ar Aghaidh (9/2-7/2) finished runner up we got it wrong in style in laying Deutchland (11/10) at Dundalk.

Ring For Time should be forgiven for her most recent effort in a Worcester 2m 4f novice hurdle as she was hampered in the earlier part before taking fourth to Billie Magern and we will once again side with the Burchell trained 6yo to follow up her easy win over a similar trip at Stratford on penultimate outing in the opening division of the 2m 6f novice hurdle at 1-45 against her own sex at Newton Abbot. This looks a ‘gilt edged’ opportunity for the daughter of Karinga Bay with doubts about the trip for her main rival Candle.
 
The second division of this contest at 2-15 would appear to be a straight match between the Irish pair of Cooksgrove Lady and Eastern Surprise. Cooksgrove Lady had little trouble in landing a Hereford seller recently but Gordon Elliott’s 6yo could have trouble in turning around an 18 length deficit in her rematch with Eastern Surprise on their third and fifth placings respectively in a Downpatrick maiden hurdle over this trip (2m 6f) a month ago. Though the three time point winner Eastern Surprise ran reasonably well there and may not have been suited by easier ground subsequently when finishing a moderate fourth behind Older And Wiser at Bellewstown the Gavin Cromwell trained mare has been slightly disappointing and though she does have her favoured fast ground here we will take her on with the dual point winner Nessa from the York yard with 5lb claimer Phil York in the plate. The 6yo was heavily supported to land a bumper at this track earlier in her career where she finished a modest third but she has shown improvement in the interim and she looked somewhat unlucky not to open her account on the track when unshipping her rider at the second last when looking the likely winner in a Folkestone hunter chase over 2m 5f on good to firm on penultimate start before running a decent second ‘between the flags’ in the meanwhile.
 
The feature event on the Killarney card this evening is the 2m 1f chase at 7-40 where the top trio in the betting look somewhat vulnerable as regards trip or ground to some degree. Favourite Royal County Star comes on best on ratings but though Tony Martin’s 10yo is on the trail of a three timer he is best over further, though his last win was achieved over 2m 2f at Punchestown. Archie Boy has been ‘making hay’ over fences of late and is seeking a four timer following victories over a similar trip to tonights at Cork, Roscommon and Newton Abbott but soft ground raises some doubts. Top weight Knight Legend would also prefer further but one who will be suited by this test is the Stephen Ryan trained mare Keys Pride who boasts winning form on a soft surface and is also a course winner and twice placed from three starts at this venue. Though she has to put a modest last time effort behind she could prove the value here under Barry Geraghty and bring her number of chases successes to four at the expense of Royal County Star while the only other mare in the contest Hill Fairy cannot be discounted on just her third start over fences.
 
Racing closed on Day 1 of the Killarney 3 day fixture with a 2m 1f bumper at 8-40 and Kevin O’Brien’s On Borrowed Wings looks set to go off a short priced favourite. A winner of a Wexford bumper at generous odds on penultimate start he proved disappointing when well beaten by the experienced Sutherland Star at Bellewstown last time but that form was somewhat devalued by the comprehensive defeat of Bachelor Lad (beat Sutherland Star into third at Down Royal) and at the likely odds here The Nina Carberry ridden 6yo could be worth opposing. The most likely alternative is the Tony Mullins trained Split Ear who arguably boasts similar if not better form in his seven starts in bumpers. Though there is a suspicion that the 7yo could be suited by further (scored well at Cork over 2m 3f on soft) his las couple of efforts in two mile and four bumpers on yielding at Listowel and Tipperary behind a couple of decent sorts in Our Musician and Pay The Bounty were quite encouraging and with more ease in the ‘turf’ tonight the Barry O’Connell ridden gelding can land the spoils at the expense of the favourite with the debutant Diamond’s Return looking best of the rest.
 
ADVICE
5pt win RING FOR TIME 1-45 Newton Abbot
3pt win 1pt place NESSA 2-15 Newton Abbot
2pt win (saver) EASTERN SURPRISE 2-15 Newton Abbot
4pt win KEYS PRIDE 7-40 Killarney
2pt win (saver) ROYAL COUNTY STAR 7-40 Killarney
5pt win (nap) SPLIT EAR 8-40 Killarney
lay to win 6pts ON BORROWED WINGS 8-40 Killarney

 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Sunday's Return was: LOSS 5.85 points