Ireland's Eye on Friday

Friday 17 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

Today we will be concentrating on this afternoons fixture at Kilbeggan which features the Midlands National handicap when we will be siding with a Tony Martin trained runner and on a track where taking on short priced favourites can often pay dividends and we will be employing that strategy today.
 
Three winners yesterday highlighted by nap Profound Beauty (7/4-6/4) in the closing Listed contest at Leopardstown. In addition Pires (7/4-5/4) took the opening race at Killarney while at Cartmel the opener went to our saver Crazy Eyes (7/2-10/3). Additionally we had placed selections in Quedillac (8-7/1) while our selection in the Group contest at Leopardstown Alshabaa (2/1) finished runner up.

Quite a few of the runners in the 2m 6f maiden hurdle at 6-30 at the Midland track boast point to point experience and it is one of these that the vote falls on in the shape of the Debbie Hartnett trained Mr Dominator. A three time winner ‘between the flags’ on different grounds he is best with ‘cut’ and though the 8yo has not really delivered to date in four attempts over flights he did indicate that a maiden hurdle is within his capabilities when taking a fair fifth behind Rockadare on good ground at Cork over three miles recently when supported ‘at the books’. It is interesting that cheek pieces are applied for the first time today and he is reunited with his regular parter in points Mikey O’Connor and that could be just the spur for the lightly raced sort to open his account on the track. Obvious danger has to be the likely favourite Shouldertoshoulder who looked a decent sort when landing his sole point at Belclare (over 2m 4f) as a 4yo and subsequently went down narrowly to Taravada in a Leopardstown maiden hurdle later in 2007. The Ruby Walsh ridden 6yo looks to have had his problems in the meantime and though he was not disgraced in taking a modest second to Older And Wiser in a 3m maiden hurdle at Bellewstown he does not look one to be taking a short price about and other fomer pointers who make equally if not better appeal are Carheenlea and The Tipperary Man.
 
An open looking 3m handicap hurdle at 7-00 houses three recent winners in Clifton Debut, Sir Ejay and Donttellmother and though all three feature close to the top of the weights the chances are that they will supply the answer to the contest. Clifton Debut would appear to hold the ‘whip hand’ on Sir Ejay on their running over course and distance almost a moth ago on good to firm where the 6yo had three and a half lengths to spare on the Charlie Swan trained 6yo and though they race off the same differential in todays contest there is a chance that Swans runner could ‘turn the tables’ as he could be suited by some ease in the ground and has shown progression in landing a Downpatrick handicap over this trip on Tuesday and the Lenny Flynn ridden runner just has to shoulder a mandatory 4lb penalty. However the solution could be the Conor O’Dwyer trained Donttellmother who followed up a close third on good ground here over course and distance on penultimate start with an easy win on softer ground in a Sligo two and a half mile handicap on latest and there could be more to come from the 7yo. Course specialist Cunninghams Folly made a pleasing return to action lately but probably would appreciate better ground while the same comment could apply to former point to pointer Club Oscar.
 
The ‘big pot’ of the night is the Midlands National handicap chase at 8-05 over 2m 6f where trainers Charlie Swan and Christy Roche are doubly represented. The blinkered Line Ball with Tony McCoy on board looks Roches best chance for success but he comes here on the back of a last fence fall at Tramore last time. Swan must have good prospects with one of three J P McManus owned runners in On The Other Hand as the 9yo boasts a decent strike rate over fences (4 wins from 12) and he only just failed to catch Oscar India in a three mile Cork chase last time and will be suited by easier ground more than his stable companion Sorry Al who finished third in that contest. Tony Martins yard seem to be hitting form and his Green Mile could prove the answer to this ultra competitive handicap under Robert Power though he may be considered to have run disappointing over 2m 4f on faster ground at Down Royal last time. However he is better suited by some ‘cut’ and the step up in trip looks sure to suit and off a reasonable mark he can land his second chase at the expense of On The Other Hand.
 
Joe Crowleys 119 rated hurdler Paco Jack made a pleasing introduction to chasing when succumbing to Red Vinto over 2m 4f here from the last on good ground in late May but disappointed subsequently over shorter at Limerick. Though the three time winning 5yo is not guaranteed at the trip he is worth a wager in the 2m 6f novice chase this evening at Kilbeggan at 8-35 under Robert Power. He should be suited by an ease in the ground and he could prove more resolute in a finish than the Ted Walsh trained Paramount under Ruby Walsh who is having his fourth start over the major obstacles and like the selection has to prove his aptitude at this trip. However the 7yo travels well in his races and has the ideal partner in Walsh to be delivered late in a race where winning pointers Whatever Next (proving hard to win with and does not find much for pressure) and Jimmy Mangans mare Ballymac Beauty (dual winner ‘between flags’ but shaped well in second behind Noble Prize at Limerick over 3m on second start over fences ) may not take advantage of the possible shortcomings of the selections.
 
ADVICE
BET lay to win 5pts PRETTY VALIRA 6-00 Kilbeggan
BET 4pt win MR DOMINATOR 6-30 Kilbeggan
BET 2pt win (saver) SHOULDERTOSHOULDER 6-30 Kilbeggan
BET 4pt win DONTTELLMOTHER 7-00 Kilbeggan
BET 2pt win (saver) SIR EJAY 7-00 Kilbeggan
BET 5pt win (nap) GREEN MILE 8-05 Kilbeggan
BET 1pt win (saver) ON THE OTHER HAND 8-05 Kilbeggan
BET 4pt win PACO JACK 8-35 Kilbeggan
BET 2pt win (saver) PARAMOUNT 8-35 Kilbeggan

 
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Thursday's Return was: LOSS 1.17 points