Ireland's Eye on Friday

Friday 10 July

IRELAND'S EYE 

Newmarket this afternoon and two Irish meetings at Gowran and Cork will be our main ‘ports of call’ today where Aidan O’Briens runner may have to settle for a supporting role again at the former venue in a Group contest while there can be success for an unexposed 5yo in a three mile maiden hurdle at Cork
 
Decent Fella (4/1) and Boulay (9/4-2/1) – two of our savers kept our run of winners going yesterday on a day where there was some disappointment when our nap Noble Gallileo (13/8- morn-4/6) could only finish third and Kalacan (3-11/4) did not get the best of runs when filling the same berth whilst at Newmarket Alwaary (12/1) met with interference in finishing a close third (promoted to second) in the days feature.

A short head separated Big Audio (6.2 on the DAQ) and Emperor Claudius (2.6 on the DAQ) in the Chesham Stakes over 7f at Royal Ascot and there may not be much between the Richard Hannon and Aidan O’Brien pair in the Group 2 Meydan Superlative Stakes at Newmarket over the same trip at 2-00 this afternoon in spite of the difference in the forecast odds. O’Briens charge was well supported on that occasion and the Fairyhouse 6f scorer from subsequent winner Bankrobber did not have that much luck in running at the Royal meeting but he may again struggle to turn the tables on Hannon’s charge whose chances cannot be taken lightly despite starting at generous odds on his first start at the distance and the ease in the ground should be in his favour to boot. There is a good chance that Hannon who boasts a decent record in this race could have another strong challenger in the Ryan Moore ridden Windsor 6f winner Lucky General who created a fine impression when making all to win by a wide margin on his second start.
 
Essex has not tasted success for a year but the 2m 4f hurdle at Cork this evening at 7-20 offers Michael O’Briens 9yo an ideal opportunity to land his seventh win over timber. A former winner of the Pierce Hurdle and the Grade 3 Totesport Trophy during 2005 he returned from over a year and a half earlier this year and showed that he retains most of his former ability with decent placed efforts, including a fair third to the useful Serpentaria (rec 11lbs) over course and distance in a hurdle and two fourth placing behind the useful mare Sesenta in a Punchestown hurdle over the same trip and a flat handicap over 10f. Though he was somewhat disappointing on his most recent effort when lumping top weight against a competitive field at Bellewstown over 2m 4f he gets into this hurdle at level weights with most of his field and indeed gets 7lbs from the obvious danger Ebaziyan, the 2007 Supreme Novice hurdle winner who has recently had an unsuccessful stint over fences and will be suited by the better ground here. The selection could have most to fear from Washington Lad whose last win over fences was when beating the top class mare Asian Maze in a Group 3 at Fairyhouse in 2005 and the 9yo has subsequently landed three chases.
 
Edward Lynam’s 3yo Captain Henry looks to be on the upgrade and he can follow up his narrow success in a Bellewstown maiden over a similar trip to this evenings extended 9f handicap for 3yo’s at Gowran at 8-10. That win was achieved on good to firm but his previous form on easier ground would indicate that he could be suited by an ease and with the ground forecast as yielding to soft there is a good chance that he could follow up here under Irish champion flat rider Pat Smullen off a mark on the evidence of his length second on this track in a 7f contest on penultimate outing. He could have most to fear from the bottom weight Beat The Boss whose best effort to date were when the Joanna Morgan trained gelding finished fair fourths on soft ground at Navan and Leopardstown handicaps over a mile and 7f respectively and he could be suited by the step up in distance here under Willie Supple.
 
At Gowran this evening the top prize goes to the winner of the 1m 1 1/2f hc at 7-40 and here there looks a good chance that the Tim Doyle trained Belle’s Ridge can take the prize home. A two time winner over a similar distance at Ballinrobe and Leopardstown on good and yielding last year the 5yo made a satisfactory seasonal debut when not beaten that far in fifth in a competitive Curragh handicap and he boasts a couple of narrow defeats at this venue – the last one when just losing out to Rockazar (rec 13lbs and a decent third at Leopardstown last night) over course and distance last September. There are two course specialists in the line up and these include Dane Blue (4 wins from 12) and Toufan Express (2 wins from 4) who sports blinkers for the first time. The first named could pose the biggest danger to Tim Doyles on a return to his favourite track having strutted his stuff in stronger Listed and Group company of late with the ease in the ground also looking a positive for the Sean Treacy 7yo mare.
 
The 3m maiden hurdle at Cork this evening (8-25) can go to the Conor O’Dwyer trained 5yo Rockadare 9.6 on the DAQ as we write. An unexposed type the son of Broadway Flyer showed up well in a few bumpers, notably when finishing a fair sixth to New Phase in a decent Punchestown event on fast ground and in filling the same position on softer ground over 2m 3f at this track before attracting market support on second start over jumps at Limerick over this trip where he was still in the mix when exiting three from home behind Captain Nash. Suited by good or better ground and with 3lb claimer Nicky O’ Shea on board he can succeed here at the expense of the ‘Mouse’ Morris trained Winds Of War who has shown promise in taking a fair fourth in a good ground bumper and a couple of maiden hurdles over 2m 4f and three miles. Former pointer Pavo who indicated ability ‘between the flags’ and ability in taking third in a Clonmel maiden hurdle over two miles and four last time in addition to likely favourite Buck Mulligan representing father/son combination of Ted and Ruby Walsh who could do better now he is stepped up in trip having failed to land a ‘touch’ in taking fourth in a Sligo 2m maiden hurdle last time. Three time point winner Mr Dominator is suited by a sound surface but was disappointing at Wexford last time while Paul Cashmans point winning mare Rebel Dream who accounted for subsequent three time Park winner Square Sphere has been showing some fair form in hurdles to date. An interesting win/place alternative is John Queallys Augosto who displayed ability on his point debut at Dungarvan (fell at last when destined for third) and there was the hint of better to come from his recent effort in a Punchestown bumper.
 
ADVICE
4pt win BIG AUDIO 2-00 Newmarket
1pt win (savers) EMPEROR CLAUDIUS and LUCKY GENERAL 2-00 Newmarket
lay to win 6pts QUINMASTER 5-45 Cork
4pts win ESSEX 7-20 Cork
2pt win (saver) WASHINGTON LAD 7-20 Cork
4pt win BELLE’S RIDGE 7-40 Gowran
2pt win (saver) DANE BLUE 7-40 Gowran
3pt win CAPTAIN HENRY 8-10 Gowran
2pt win (saver) BEAT THE BOSS 8-10 Gowran
5pt win (nap) ROCKADARE 8-25 Cork
2pt win (saver) WINDS OF WAR 1pt win/place AUGUSTO 8-25 Cork

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Thursday's Return was: LOSS 9 points