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Wednesday 8 July
DAQMAN
11-1 WINNER: Though his main bet went down yesterday, Daqman came up smelling of roses via Dickie Le Davoir (won 11-1); for once, SP gave him a better result than expected.
NINE DAYS IN PROFIT OUT OF 11: That put him in profit, over the 150-points mark, for the ninth day in the last 11.
TEN LAYS IN A ROW: Wide-open races and tight form lines on the July Course today mean that Daqman is not risking a lay (he’s currently 10 out of 10) or a banker bet. He is looking for going and draw indicators for the rest of the meeting this week.
It’s difficult to concentrate after my nightmare last night: I had to watch the opening day of the July Meeting on Channel-4 (for those students of Jung who think that’s sufficient explanation, sorry but there’s more).
Andrew Franklin and his production team had decided to compete with Kempton’s ‘musical race’ tonight: they superimposed ‘Tommo’ doing Tracy Turnblad’s Hairspray dancing over the 2.35, had Jim McGrath as Lonnie Donegan strumming up the 2.00 (Sloop JohnB) and ‘Big Mac’ doing a Judy Garland impression at 3.10 (Rainbow View), a sort of yellowbrick toad.
In my dream, I e-mailed them and said: will you play Eva’s Request (3.10)? The request is ‘stop this ineffable nonsense and get on with the racing’.
I have deleted or modified words from the original of the dream e-mail, so as not to offend any children reading this or any children responsible for playing the William Tell Overture over the 7.20 at Kempton tonight.
1.30 Newmarket (fillies’ handicap): Gimme some bias! Until we know how the draw will affect the straight-course races (5f – 1m), we have to best-guess its effect and, in the opener, the known front-runners Arabian Mirage (stall 1), Lovely Thought (2), Cumana Bay (14), and Greenisland (11) – possibly joined by Resort (15) – are on opposite flanks.
Also, Channel-4 please note, we are anxious to know the ground conditions: no pogo-sticks, no Francome fandango but a proper assessment from jockeys who have walked the course, please.
Some of the fancied runners are up a couple of grades from modest class-4 handicaps; those who have kept better company are Rosabee (but question mark over first run back), Sea Of Leaves (but absent nearly a year), First City and Photographic.
First City, third in the Nell Gwyn, was fifth in the Sandringham, form boosted by Golden Stream, Silver Games and Say No Now. Photographic was well beaten that day but she was badly drawn and Ascot’s not her track; she’ll be more at home here, dropped back a furlong.
Balaagha, Mastoora, Resort and Pyrrha are all lightly raced and any one of them could improve, so we need good odds: I took 12.5 each First City and Pyrrha, and 13.5 Photographic. If the gamble is for the Stoute beast, Resort, get on.
2.00 Newmarket (heritage handicap): Another wide-open race. The pace, if it comes, as expected, from Run For The Hills and Spring Green, is middle to high.
I wouldn’t put you off the Mr Consistents - Akhenaten, Parisian Pyramid and Shamwari Lodge (form well boosted and, actually, she’s a filly) - but Damien (in 2) drops from Listed contests and Total Gallery (11) from Group-3, while Enact (3) may be better than the bare form if you read between the lines, as you often have to with a Stoute runner.
While his draw is a worry, Damien looks well handicapped and his sire has a fine 20.66% place-strike (500-runner survey) with cut in the ground. Again, a move in the market for the Stoute runner would be significant.
I thought 18.5 about a Murtagh spare ride – Total Gallery – was good value. Damien, too, at 19.0, has his conditions. Saver: Shamwari Lodge.
2.35 Newmarket (Cherry Hinton): Habaayib is the one who’s done it and done it well; though, again, we don’t yet know about draw or ground, and the smaller field might not provide the strong gallop she needs.
The Queen Mary 2nd, 3rd and 4th - Misheer, Capercaillie and Ceedwell – all reoppose and it may be that getting within five or seven lengths of Jealous Again is the nearest any filly (or colt?) will ever get.
Mick Channon took this last year with Please Sing and the last time the owner of Hairspray named one after a cosmetic, it was Lipstick. She is better than the bare form.
The same survey from which I produced the Damien stat (above) tells me that Habaayib’s sire, Royal Applause, shows a 66-point loss on his two-year-olds on ground good-to-soft or worse.
Winners of the Albany are four from five in the Cherry Hinton. But it may be that the Queen Mary was the stronger race and conditions have changed. If Habaayib does win this, in different circumstances and beating the Jealous Again challengers, she’s sure headed for the top.
3.10 Newmarket (Falmouth): There’s not a generous layer among you; the best you could do last night was 9-4 Rainbow View. Having declared the bet in yesterday’s column, I have to stand by it, but nervously.
The stats say ‘yes’: if you take Soviet Song out of the equation – she made this race her own – you have three-year-olds on six out of eight in the Falmouth, usually Coronation Stakes and Oaks failures. Rainbow View was third in the Coronation.
Home reports also say ‘yes’: she did a humdinger of a final gallop, with onlookers cooing: ‘She’s definitely back to her best now.’ And the filly is returning to a track she loves.
The snag is we were hoping she was ‘back to her best’ in the Oaks; we were hoping she was ‘back to her best’ in the Coronation. For a third-time-lucky bet, you need better than 9-4.
Goldikova is an obvious threat; she twice disposed of Darjina last season on good-to-soft ground. Heaven Sent let Spacious get first run at Ascot, where Eva’s Request (beat Spacious at Epsom) edged about on the firm surface. But I’ve been and gone and done it, and moved my chips in early on Rainbow View.
In other races, Tiger Hawk (3.45) is yet another possible each way at big odds (19.0 on the Daq as I write): regarded as the Callaghans best two-year-old. If Enact runs well, it’s a pointer to her work companion, Pumpkin (9.20 Kempton)
It’s a very hard first day; my ideas for anyone coming out in front is that he should get away from racing and treat himself to a soothing night of classical music with a glass or two of champagne; alternatively, he could put an apple on his head and go to Kempton Park. Pumpkin pie anyone?
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