DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 28 July DAQMAN  NAP AND DOUBLE UP: Daqman yesterday landed his nap and double but a gamble on the best bet, Block Party (won 8-13), at Windsor last night left him with little return at SP from the double with Stunning View (won 4-9). GOODWOOD PLOT: Daqman tried to get ahead of the game today by taking 3.0 on Betdaq last night about one of this afternoon’s favourites as part of his plan for a win-win situation on the St Leger. RACE-BY-RACE TV GUIDE: Here’s Daqman’s guide to terrestrial TV on the opening day of the festival, with his current strike rate at 12 winning bets in four days. Gambling is when you’ve no special reason for your choice, no particular idea what is likely to win but you bet anyway. Investing is when the chances of making a profit are improved because you have an offer which is over the top (value) or has built-in bias in your favour, or you have found a way to insure your risk: the banks had all that and still went bust. In trying to take some of the risk out of it at Goodwood, you need a trainer like Sir Michael Stoute on your side. Or a draw bias. Or an animal with class or guts. I’ll try to find them all this week. First, the one you know about already: this column took 12.0 Stoute’s Harbinger for the St Leger (there was a bit of 13.5 at one stage but we’ll settle for 12.0 for our reckoning). Today Harbinger runs in his first trial for the race, the Gordon Stakes (2.45) and we tried to pre-empt a morning gamble by taking 3.0 last night to four points (offers on the Daq timed 8.40 p.m. Monday). The plan was to lay him in the run-up to the race today but, so far, he’s walked the other way - he went 3.3 in a 102 Betdaq ‘book’ this morning – suggesting that we need a support bet. Win or lose today, Harbinger’s next step is likely to be the Great Voltigeur, the traditional stepping-stone to the Leger. But, if he does happen to take the Gordon Stakes, get ready to lay him at the reduced Leger trades. 2.10 Goodwood (Heritage Handicap): Here’s where the high-draw bias should come in (two double-figure stalls in last three years) but it doesn’t always happen that way; something lying out of his ground can come down the wide outside and, yes, stuff them in the final furlong. It will be hard for Australia Day, a front-runner drawn wide, and Moyenne Corniche, who should get the rail but seems unlikely to last out on ground too fast for him. Top-weight Drumfire (15.5 on the Daq this morning) is just short of Group class and the pick of the high draw over Unbreak My Heart in a race Mark Johnston has won twice with horses carrying 9st 9lb and 9st 10lb. Bravely Fought and Royal Destination are each coming into this on a roll and – after his pacemaking job for Conduit - Lang Shining could re-emerge in his own right but the market is wide open. 2.45 Goodwood (Gordon Stakes): Conduit struggled to win for Sir Michael Stoute last year but look how he went on to Leger and, now, King George glory. Winners have come from handicaps and Firebet is hot with trainer Fahey having such a fine season but it’s a late stage to decide he’s a middle-distance horse. Masterofthehorse has been near the top – third in the Derby – but has now left Aidan O’Brien: I don’t have cast-offs and I don’t back ‘nearly’ horses. The rest are easy to back apart from Urban Poet, bred to be ‘anything’. We’ve seen these $3m yearlings bite the dust before but this one has really excited the Johnstons and could be involved in an apparently weak race, though past winners – Sixties Icon as well as Conduit – show that something good will come of it.    3.25 Goodwood (Lennox Stakes): The last two winners have come first class - from the Jersey Stakes (won this year by Ouqba) and the French Guineas - but, like J J The Jet Plane, Iffraaj (2006) hitched his ride to this from sprints. Main Aim has gone close to doing both: fourth in the Queen Anne and runner-up in the July Cup (hampered). He must run well for that man Stoute but Ouqba is the wrong price at 7.0 this morning. I can’t have Regal Parade, Express Wish and Dream Eater as they are all of a heap on a line through Balthazar’s Gift, and Richard Hills has chosen Ouqba over Finjaan. So, seemingly, I might be getting 6-1 in a three-horse race. 4.00 Goodwood (Molecomb Stakes): No lazy Sunday for Monsieur Chevalier: he did a real sharpener-up of a gallop with the big boys, Bunbury Cup winner Plum Pudding and Queen Anne hero, Paco Boy. Richard Hannon knows that his Super Sprint winner won’t be able to lie back and let the others do the work on a pace track like Goodwood. For instance, Iver Bridge Road hits the traps running and is reckoned a better horse now than when well held by Monsieur Chevalier in the Spring. But Monsieur Chevalier is also a different horse now and has seen him off once, and four others in today’s line-up, on tougher tracks. The two yet to be bloodied by him are Reigner (17.0 on Betdaq), who finished in front of him when he nearly got knocked over at Ascot, and Bould Mover (12.5), fast but with the stamina to stay on at stiff Beverley. Both have place chances at least and I shall put Monsieur Chevalier only in my Daq Multiples.
TODAY'S BETS
WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place DRUMFIRE (2.10 Goodwood) BET 3pts win URBAN POET and 4pts win (taken last night at 3.0) HARBINGER (2.45 Goodwood) BET 4pts win MAIN AIM, and 2pts win and place OUQBA (3.25 Goodwood) BET 1pt win and place on each BOULD MOVER and REIGNIER (4.00 Goodwood). BET 1pt win and place WALDVOGEL (4.35 Goodwood) BET 1pt win and place VIKING DANCER (5.45 Goodwood) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles DRUMFIRE, OUQBA and MONSIEUR CHEVALIER We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Monday's Return was: LOSS 3.65 points
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