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Tuesday 14 July
DAQMAN
HE’S MADE IT TO 200! Daqman’s amazing run took him to 201 points profit in 20 days when he scored with three more winners yesterday.
BETDAQ 7-1 GAMBLE: They included Mhilu (won 3-1), subject of a gamble when backed down from 7-1 at Newton Abbot.
VALUE SEARCH: Today Daqman continues his spot-check research of Betdaq value and reveals the ‘dark horse’ for the Arc.
There’s a fairy story that bookmaker liabilities offloaded onto the exchanges make for very little difference between the late trades and SP. Not so on Betdaq. And I’m giving you ‘for instances.’
In fact, I find that you can get value twice over on the Daq, including in that final 10 minutes of hectic business before the ‘off.’
For instance, I got in early yesterday with Mhilu: the 3-1 Tony McCoy winner was trading at around 7-1 at 10 a.m. on Betdaq (as ever, my profits in this column are often greatly reduced by having them returned at SP).
Yet, despite the morning value available to the discerning eye, the Daq overround diminishes to a negligible percentage in those last 10 minutes, at the very time that hefty hedging is alleged to take place.
For instance, in the opener at Ayr yesterday, the ‘book’ of available trades reduced from 111% at noon to 105% on Betdaq with 10 minutes to go before the ‘off’ time yet, in that period, the 9-2 winner was always trading ‘overs’ at 6.2 and 5.7. Bookies’ SP total percentage 110.
Similarly, in the very next handicap, at 3 o’clock, the percentage against the backer crunched to near zero (at most, 103%) on the Daq with around 10 minutes or so left to find your match.
Yet the winner, Whaston, traded between 19.0 and 17.0 all afternoon. SP? 12-1. Bookies’ SP percentage total? 121 for a 21% take-out.
I set out to check the markets through the whole of the Ayr card but near-carnage ended racing; that was regrettable but the cash carnage among punters taking bookmaker prices was, as ever, lamentable and unnecessary when there was value to be had one way or another all morning on Betdaq, right until the ‘off’.
Meanwhile, here’s another fairy story; or is it? Rumours of an Arc De Triomphe ‘plot’ have been emanating from Paris for some time now: the colt in question, Beheshtam, runs in the Grand Prix De Paris today and we’ll see what all the fuss is about.
He should be made of Arc material: his sire is the 1997 Arc winner Peintre Celebre and his maternal grandsire is Mill Reef who, in 1971, became the first English Arc winner for 23 years.
After taking the French Derby, Peintre Celebre won today’s race on the way to his Arc victory but Beheshtam missed out on following in his footsteps, since he failed to get a place in this year’s Derby at Chantilly.
But the modern Prix du Jockey Club isn’t really a Derby, run as it is over little more than 10 furlongs. Beheshtam, though finishing well, didn’t have enough toe from a wide draw, his two wins out of two before that having come over 12 and 13 furlongs on the soft.
Though the trip is now right, the same doubts are being raised about Longchamp today, because the ground is on the firm side of good. But Peintre Celebre, who won this Grand Prix on holding ground, secured his Arc on good to firm.
At this stage, the French have nothing to offer at the front of the Arc market against Fame And Glory and Sea The Stars, so Grand Prix success for their dark horse today should shave a good deal off the current Betdaq ante-post trades of up to 16.0 (I took some of that last night).
Yes, you’ve guessed it, he’s only 12-1 with most bookmakers, so we already have reason to dive in for a pound or two of ‘overs’. The same stake on him for the Grand Prix today should – if he wins - pay for the Arc stake. So you have a free bet!
TODAY Bet and Lay: Dark Camellia (3.30 Brighton), a filly for money in the past, could close from her 10.5, as I write: but don’t wait until after the ‘off’; she’s a rear runner. Silver Prelude (7.20 Yarmouth) won this two years ago and is down in the weights; front-runner who should shorten right up but can he last out? Likewise Invasian, dropped in class (8.20 Yarmouth).
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