DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 9 July DAQMAN  18.5 BETDAQ VALUE: Quote from Daqman’s column on the second winner of the opening day at Newmarket yesterday: ‘18.5 about a Johnny Murtagh spare ride was good value.’   TWO 11-1 WINNERS: The Murtagh horse was Total Gallery (won 11-1 SP), giving Daqman his second 11-1 winner in two days, following Dickie Le Davoir on Monday.   176 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman also gave Misheer (won 7-2) and Pumpkin (won 13-8) for his 10th day in profit out of 12, netting more than 20 points on the day, and taking his total haul in the 12 days to 176 points or £1,760 to £10 units at recommended stakes.   The card at Newmarket today is a jungle of ungenerous form. I may have to ape Mark Johnston, taking Tarzan down at Epsom tonight to get my money back. 1.30 Newmarket (Bahrain Trophy): The trickiest race at the meeting so far (until the next three); it’s a list of excuses: Above Average ‘got no run at Ascot’; Dhushan ‘ran too freely’; Kite Wood was ‘a little disappointing’ but is dropped in class. So they tell the Racing Post. If it’s tactical, anything can happen; but, if Dhushan, say, goes off in front and there is a decent pace, Tactic could be the one to take over around two or three out and test the others for stamina. That would be my jockey’s orders since, with Dhushan behind him for the second time this season, Tactic might have won the Queens Vase (2m) over a furlong or two shorter and the Sadlers Wells colt will prefer the easier ground today. The stable had a winner on the opening day. 2.00 Newmarket (July Stakes): Tom Dascombe, who scored in this last year, has Orpen Grey strongly fancied after his runaway win in the same prep race at Salisbury but the placed horses that day were only class-5 winners and, before that, the placed horses for his Warwick success were class-5 losers! Red Jazz has had his form franked by Iver Bridge Lad (beat Angel’s Pursuit and Noble Greek) and Arcano his by Showcasing and two others behind him at Newbury. Reignier, whose form was let down by Capercaille yesterday, holds Tawaabb but is unlikely to confirm Ascot Norfolk Stakes placings with the running on and hampered Nosedive. I think the morning joint-favourite Orpen Grey is flattered by his wide-margin win and by his following in the footsteps of last year’s winner; I have a squad of Group-2 experience to take him on. It’s a tough call between Arcano, Nosedive and Red Jazz but Nosedive is a nice each-way price at 6.0 as I write, was running on in the traditional pointer for this, the Norfolk, as if an extra furlong were needed, and has Ryan Moore in the saddle with a 13 from 22 strike rate for the yard. 2.35 Newmarket (Heritage Handicap): the first two were tough but this one is frozen toffee: get your teeth into that! We can but surmise as follows: it’s probably not rained enough for the dogged Aqwaal; Barwell Bridge, Union Island and Changing The Guard are all of a heap, close together, exposed to the handicapper; Lasso The Moon has run well with some of them but is still a maiden. Emirates Roadshow ran a cracker in the Britannia but Mark Johnston, whose Roman Republic he beat that day, throws two more at him here, both front-runners, Takaatuf and Eastern Aria. My first thought was to forget them all and go for the unexposed Stoute runner, Class Is Class, but – having said that this race is tough as toffee to false teeth – how can I accept 3-1 against such a field? In the end I chose one on potential: it looks as though this one needs this trip; it looks as though he’s bred to do a lot better when the trainer gets it right; he looks unlucky so far, in fact. Name of Roman Republic. Nice 9.2 on the Daq this morning. 3.10 Newmarket (Princess Of Wales’s Stakes): Rainbow View, says one commentator, was seemingly further proof yesterday that the current Classic generation is behind their elders; alternatively, yesterday we had to make a third consecutive excuse for the filly, so no such proof there, then. The same trainer has the only three-year-old in this race, Alwaary. So how wary are we? Well, I’m afraid we’re left holding a stick of rhubarb, since the stable has another runner in the race, Duncan, as if it, too, can’t decide the relative merits of the two generations. That’s not forgetting that the same trainer, J Gosden no less, has already beaten Campanologist, Enroller and Doctor Fremantle with Bronze Cannon. From where I am – not knowing the actual going at the ‘off’ – it’s not soft enough for Enroller, nor fast enough for Campanologist and Doctor Fremantle. I’ll have to choose between the generations and give it to the progressive Duncan.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and place TACTIC, and 2pts win (saver) KITE WOOD (1.30 Newmarket) LAY to win 10pts ORPEN GREY, and BET 2pts win and place NOSEDIVE (2.00 Newmarket) BET 2pts win and place ROMAN REPUBLIC (2.35 Newmarket). BET 4pts win DUNCAN (3.10 Newmarket) BANKER 10pts win TARZAN (8.30 Epsom) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 23.50 points
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