DAQMAN on SATURDAY

Saturday 4 July DAQMAN  EIGHT LAYS IN A ROW: It didn’t all drop for Daqman yesterday but, as ever, his red-hot laying power toppled a paper favourite.   DOUBLE WHAMMY: Society Venue (unplaced 11-4) failed to reach the frame and he rubbed salt in layers’ wounds with a double whammy, backing Bollin Greta (won 2-1) to win the race. 100-POINTS PROFIT: He’s 100 points up in the last week and twice goes for a big coup today in a bid to top up to a two-ton jackpot. BANKER AND LAY: He has a banker at the Eclipse meeting and another lay to add to his current run of 39 out of 45. If you think it’s a walk-over for Sea The Stars, let me take you from the sublime to the ridiculous in two sobering thoughts. Eclipse, the horse, after whom this race is named, won 18 consecutive races, and was so good that the owner was forced to retire him because no one would bet on his opponents; that is, when any dared to turn up: eight of his races ended as walk-overs. Sea The Stars, then, has a fair way to go. In fact, odds-on about today’s favourite is ridiculous when you look at the facts: the Eclipse is a graveyard for favourites, with only Hawk Wing scoring from the front of the market in the last decade. Recent ghosts of that graveyard, Authorized (7-4 on) and Motivator (5-2 on) – both second – reveal how this race can do a demolition job on a Derby winner’s reputation: 14 Classic winners since 1990 have all failed to win this. Sea The Stars won at a mile in the Guineas, you say; but what did he beat that day? Runner-up Delegator was from a stable badly out of form but, since the yard’s recovery, has been beaten at Royal Ascot; third, Gan Amhras, was out of the frame in the Irish Derby, and fourth, Rip Van Winkle, was beaten about the same distance – fourth again - by Sea The Stars at Epsom. I would like to see Sea The Stars win; for racing’s sake, we need a champion, one who can challenge Fame And Glory in a rematch that will pull in the crowds. But, at odds on this morning, I can’t bet on it. 2.05 Sandown (Sprint Stakes): Three-year-olds have won three out of the four runnings of this race but Triple Aspect’s plum draw could tell against him if he struggles with the early pace, as he did on the course last time out, and Anglezarke has already been beaten by Ialysos. I could get back 8.88 from a place for every 10 points I bet Ialysos to win and, since he was a generous 4.3, I took up all the offers. I thought he was unlucky in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot. Triple Aspect is in top form at home working with Group horses, and a saver on him could cover my investment on Ialysos. I want insurance all down the line in sprints. 2.40 Sandown (Challenge): Alfathaa showed the improvement from his being gelded when an eye-catching fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup, despite missing the break and being stopped in his run. Mirrored also has Royal Ascot form, with Sir Michael Stoute laying out a feast for supporters today, but Alfathaa is the ‘wrong price’ at 8.0 on the Daq as I write. 3.15 Sandown (Eclipse): The three-year-old record is – last year first - 4241001211 with, clearly, five of the last six going to older horses. Sir Michael Stoute spotted the weakness and, with his penchant for improving four and five year olds, has grabbed it twice with Medicean and Notnowcato. Only last Sunday, he produced Spanish Moon as a five-year-old to take the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud beating last year’s Arc runner-up in the process. I believe Conduit is a better horse than Spanish Moon: in fact, he’s done the Derby distance (1m 4f) more than 13 seconds faster than Sea The Stars and, though he had the stamina to win a St Leger (1m 6f) on the soft, stormed a handicap at Epsom over today’s 10 furlongs by six lengths. Notice that word ‘handicap’: it was phenomenal improvement for Conduit to go on to win a Leger on soft and a Breeders Cup on firm later last year. Conduit was going to be retired after the Leger as just another out-of-fashion stayer but that Breeders Cup – in the 13 seconds faster time than this year’s Derby - showed he had the speed to take on the best at the 10 and 12 furlong distances of international racing. He was too fresh first time out this season. After an injury scare as well as three times finishing out of the frame, Rip Van Winkle has taken a walk in the market this morning, leaving a two-horse race: you takes your choice, Sea The Stars at 2-1 on or Conduit at 11-2. With Conduit’s penalties, it will probably be close between them. We already have a race of champions and no one’s noticed: Sea The Stars, the Guineas and Derby winner, versus Conduit, one of the world’s best horses last season. Betdaq’s value trades come to my rescue: they give me the cop out of Conduit (6.4) each way. Whatever happens to Conduit, my banker today is Strawberrydaiquiri (3.45), another Stoute animal on the upgrade: she has really impressed at home working with Golden Stream and Ave, since running away with her last race. 3.30 Haydock (Old Newton Cup): Mezzanisi has been 11 times in the frame from his last 12 races, yet 15.0 on Betdaq as I write, though better off at the weights with Epsom conqueror Hatton Flight who is 10.0. On the evidence of his form, Falcativ is heading the market on Luca Cumani’s record in this race (three wins in five years) and Hevelius is just as ‘dark.’ Certainly, with four and five year olds dominating the stats, the rest of the field does not appeal. It’s Betdaq to the rescue again: take the rags out and you have an underround; I can afford to back both dark horses as savers as I attempt a win-50 coup on Mezzanisi, with the stable back in top gear. He’ll need some luck and Spencer doesn’t often make his luck. But the place bet should save the day. LAY OF THE DAY: Sands Crooner (2.45 Beverley) has never won off this high a rating and has never put back to back wins together. Moreover, he refused to race a couple of runs since, and is now up against lightning fast course-and-distance winner, Pacific Pride. Pacific Pride’s connections surely won’t ignore the gelding’s high-draw opportunity to ‘go for it’, getting a stone from the paper favourite, including Jamie Kyle’s allowance. Double whammy.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win and place IALYSOS and 3pts win (saver) TRIPLE ASPECT (2.05 Sandown) WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 6pts win and 2pts place ALFATHAA, and 2pts win (saver) MIRRORED (2.40 Sandown) LAY to win 10pts SANDS CROONER and BET 4pts win PACIFIC PRIDE (2.45 Beverley) BET: 3pts win and place CONDUIT (3.15 Sandown) WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 3pts place MEZZANISI, plus 1pt win (savers) FALCATIV and HEVELIUS (3.30 Haydock) BANKER: 10pts win STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI (3.45 Sandown) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Friday's Return was: LOSS 13.88 points
	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More