|
Monday 13 July
DAQMAN
OAKS ROMP AT EVENS: Daqman was in no doubt about yesterday’s easy Irish Oaks winner, Sariska (won 1-1), dismissing Midday on the ground and Beauty O’Gwaun for wearing blinkers.
75 WINNING BETS: He’s on 75 winning bets in the last 29 days, and 44 successful lays from the last 51.
TARGET 200: His immediate target is to pass 200 points profit in three weeks (he has 188 with two days to go).
PERFECT EACH-WAY BETS: Racing is low key but he finds a perfect each-way bet at Windsor tonight and one at Newton Abbot this afternoon.
When a trainer can’t fathom a horse’s optimum distance, he may call in a trusted jockey to ‘have a sit’ and tell him what’s underneath him.
The story goes that one trainer in need of guidance paid Lester Piggott to partner a horse on the gallops. The beast had been campaigned unsuccessfully over 10 furlongs and a mile and a half, but Piggott got off and said: ‘Run it in the Kings Stand Stakes,’ which it duly won.
No name is ever attached to this trainer, purportedly to save his blushes for running a sprinter over middle distances. So the story may be apocryphal as an illustration of the judgement of the Long Fella.
Today, a jumps trainer, would more than likely call in A.P. McCoy. Today, Gordon Elliott needs the champion to do a job at Newton Abbot: he has a decent hurdler of Graded level, but he’s completely blown it over fences in Ireland so far.
Elliott’s plan is a change of scenery and the never-say-no McCoy drive, not to mention a tongue-tie and blinkers. McCoy is two out of three for the trainer on this course and the gelding in question, Mhilu (2.45), will love today’s firmish ground, the conditions he had for his hurdles wins. His poor chase form has been on the soft.
But punters on Betdaq were not convinced this morning: unusually, Daq layers were giving a McCoy mount away at 8.0, with a good deal better than evens a place.
One reason was an early-doors gamble on Armenian Boy in to 5-3 on. This one hasn’t exactly done a Mhilu but his first chase was less than convincing, and trainer David Pipe already reaches for the aids; he’s in cheekpieces for the first time (the horse, not David).
Meanwhile, McCoy’s only other booked mount – for his guv’nor, J P McManus – is obviously a ‘thinker’, so Qanta De Thaix (3.15) is now being equipped with visor and tongue-tie, both for the first time.
I’m always banging on about betting only in quality races, so forgive me for repeating myself: quality is not high on the agenda today – so you need a price because the risks are greater – and, whereas I rightly snubbed the blinkered Beauty O’Gwaun yesterday, the blinds are necessary aids on a day like today.
Let the market decide: I can’t see value in 3-1 Qanta De Thaix; I’m not ‘buying money’ the place as insurance for a win bet on such a long-time loser (won only once, in 2007).
But, back on the right surface, and with only nine runners, I think I can give Mhilu three chances a place at 7-1 each way. Trainer Elliott is in solid form; his last five runners have finished 32231.
Victor Daly (3.45) drops from a class-1 chase and is first time in a tongue-tie with Sam Thomas keeping the faith after pulling up on him last time out; ‘Victor’ tends to follow a poor race with a good one and 25.0 says it’s worth the guess that it will happen again today.
Talking about when a jockey knows he’s got something good underneath him, Jamie Spencer was always in cruise control on Sariska yesterday. He goes to Wolverhampton for the one ride tonight, Lucky Rave (7.20), whose experience could see him through.
Frankie Dettori is also on a solo mission with a two-year-old: Buzzword (8.00 Windsor) returns to the course and distance of his promising debut run. He’s been working at home a length or so behind the four-lengths York winner Chaperno.
As an offspring of Pivotal, like Sariska – there the resemblance ends – Buzzword would benefit from the forecast showers. On that Curragh card yesterday, I dismissed the Anglesey winner because she was a filly against the colts (silly me; she looks really smart).
And I note that Richard Hannon, winner of Buzzword’s race last year, saddles the only filly, Paleo; she’s an Indian Ridge so may also be happy to see some rain.
Three-year-olds have a good record in the fillies’ handicap (8.30) – including three wins in the last four years – but none has won with less than 9st 3lb, so you are clearly looking for a second-season animal with a decent bit of form.
Stalls one (twice), two and three (twice) have won in five of the last six seasons and Perfect Friend, in three and off 9st 7lb, seems to be enjoying her racing on any kind of ground: I’m looking for a match that gives me full place insurance at 6.8 the win, since she’s managed to reach the frame seven times in her last eight starts.
|
Comments