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Friday 3 July
DAQMAN
SIX WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Daqman landed four more winning bets yesterday to bring his scorching run to six consecutive days. He’s now turned up the heat to produce 50 winning bets in 19 days.
120 POINTS PROFIT: His profit at recommended stakes since Saturday is more than 120 points, judged at SP, and a great deal more at earlier Betdaq trades.
SEVEN LAYS ON THE TROT: The winning bets yesterday included a seventh successive winning lay when another morning favourite, Dashing Doc (drifted and unplaced 13-2), failed to reach the frame.
DARING OR WHAT: Far from protecting his run with easy bets, daring Daqman is in full flow today with a lay, a double whammy, a win banker, a place banker, each-way bets, a win double and a high-stakes ‘if-lose’ across the cards.
In the maze of eight meetings today, and with rain everywhere likely to spoil trainers plans and my winning run, a bit of déjà vu will help to concentrate the mind. Trainers are creatures of habit just as, if you or I find a hand that works for us, we hope to play it again and again.
Yesterday at Haydock, Mark Johnston squeezed the only three-year-old into the bottom of a mile handicap. Paper forecast 4-1. Result: Pride Of Kings, tipped by this column, was gambled in to 10-11 and was always in command in the last three furlongs.
I mistakenly opposed a second Johnston three-year-old in an all-aged handicap at Epsom last night, Eastern Aria: she skated up by seven lengths.
This afternoon at Sandown, the same stable has a Maktoum filly, Alpen Glen (4.35), the only three-year-old getting the allowances down there at the foot of a 10-furlong handicap, 2lb ahead of the assessor despite a penalty for keeping her 100% record at Chester.
And, at Doncaster, Johnston has Battle Planner (2.30) and Crime Writer (4.10) - a handicap debut 6.0 each-way bet on the Daq - both lone second-season animals, taking on their elders with the handy weight for age or better on easing ground.
More déjà vu. At Haydock yesterday, the Queen Mary seventh, Rose Blossom, dropped to a class-4 novice race, scooted back into the winners’ enclosure for easy money at 8-11.
Tonight at Beverley (7.25), the Queen Mary 11th Grand Zafeen makes an identical drop down to a class-4 novice. Paper forecast 5-2, she’ll surely be subject of another plunge.
Though Grand Zafeen was only 11th, she was slowly away in the Royal Ascot race and her previous form – and that of the other runners - suggests that Channon was right to have a go at the Queen Mary.
The fillies previously in the frame with her at Goodwood have six wins to their names; from the race she won at Pontefract, second and third are four-time scorers between them.
Let’s look at the others in today’s field: fillies concerned with Bould Mover’s form at Musselburgh (the 2nd, 3rd and 4th) and Folkestone (1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th) have failed to do better than place in 16 other races.
Similarly, Craicattack’s form at Brighton and Thirsk is not supported by anything better than a place from seven other races; nor On The Bounty’s in eight other races. Sheka’s hard-fought win at Ripon has received several knocks. And House Of Frills won only a seller. Verdict: Grand Zafeen.
Here’s another gambit many trainers get up to: it’s called turning a claimer into a handicap snip. I give you the 7.00 at Salisbury.
Elna Bright (official rating 88) is clear in the (official) base ratings but Dressed To Dance (79) has been entered at a claim which gives her a 12lb lower mark, plus the boy’s 3lb allowance, and takes her to the front of my future ratings.
But she is not fronting the market; it’s t’other way round: Elna Bright is 3.7 favourite as I write, with Dressed To Dance on 5.6.
Dressed To Dance has just hit strike and, last time that happened, the mare went on a roll of four wins in six races including three in a row. So we know she keeps her form well. Place banker.
Another good habit is betting the high draw in Sandown sprints: the score in the opener there today is seven out of 10 (when more than seven runners).
Winners have been drawn 9, 12 and 14 since The Jobber won with a long raking outside run from stall one in 2005. He is one of the favourites today from the seemingly plum draw in 15. But that won’t suit his hold-up style.
Overnight rain has changed the ground to good, good to soft in patches; but the racecourse executive are not going to frighten Sea The Stars away with the word ‘soft’ anywhere in the going description and, by the time the Eclipse field is racing, drying weather should have the course in perfect nick.
But I think Biniou (2.20) might get into the ground today; he needs some cut and he has the draw. The worry is yet another three-year-old, Sharpened Edge, by a top Aussie sprinter, lurking at the foot of the handicap from a double-figure stall: but Biniou is 11.0 on Betdaq this morning.
Final déjà vu for the day: I opposed David Elsworth’s losing two-year-old at Epsom last night, partly on the grounds of his continuing poor form at the track.
I’m now laying paper favourite Society Venue (2.00): he hasn’t much to beat but he usually beats himself, and Jedd O’Keefe has gone 2,589 days since he last had a winner at Doncaster. Talk about a losing run!
Society Venue’s strike rate is one from 14, and the win was over nine furlongs; he has been beaten into a place seven times, and in his only previous try at 12 furlongs, he was 11th of 13.
Bollin Greta could gift us a double whammy: she’s done all right in recent races, yet has been dropped a couple of pounds; she gets further than this and will welcome the rain that has taken the sting out of ground.
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