DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 31 July DAQMAN  GLORIOUS DAQMAN: Daqman, who landed an 8-1 winner on the opening day, was in the money again at Goodwood yesterday. 7-1 WINNER: His winning bets included the easy King George scorer, Kingsgate Native (won 7-1), to bring his score to 10 this week. ANOTHER LAY UP: He later laid the 3-1 favourite, Sualice, which failed to reach the frame. It was winning lay number 48 from the last 57 for an 84% strike rate. If you see the official handicapper at Goodwood today, buy him a bottle of champagne. It’s the decent thing to do when a man’s done his job well: I can’t find a crack in his ratings for a Totesport Mile that lets in any light. But has he been undone by the draw? It’s not a race of quality horses: six are too old on the stats – horses between three and five win this – and six more haven’t won for more than a year, three of them for two years. In such circumstances of tight ratings and no handicap stand-out, you look for unexposed animals with potential improvement, but Acrostic, Cloudy Star and Crackdown all have ground worries after yesterday’s downpour. The result by stalls reveals that the last nine winners were drawn 16 or higher, and last year the first five home were from 20, 19, 18, 17, 16. Backers who know the draw bias take all the value out of high-stalls horses and the starting price of the winner has not beaten 10-1 in the last six years. So it’s no longer a punter friendly race but, at least, it’s Betdaq friendly: they are betting to only about 105% on the Daq as I write compared with 114% (best odds) with the bookies.   2.10 Goodwood (Glorious Stakes): Crime Scene hasn’t beaten another horse at Goodwood in two attempts – one of them this race last year -  with no excuses for ground or distance. He’s bound to be all the rage with Godolphin and Dettori in good form but Frankie probably deserted Group-performer Age Of Reason because of the ground, and that one has, in fact, been withdrawn. Basaltico (switched to Luca Cumani) will like the rain-softened ground and the form of his third to Veracity at Dubai was boosted by the second, Mourilyan, with a fine run in the Goodwood Cup yesterday. Drumfire, winner of the Heritage Handicap on Tuesday at Goodwood, is following in the footsteps of a previous winner from the Johnston stable, Crosspeace, who won that same race and went on to win this Glorious Stakes three days later (when it was still a Listed). They are officially about the same horse - Drumfire is a pound lower in the official ratings – and Drumfire acted on soft ground in his two-year-old days. Halicarnassus just missed out on a course and distance win at the beginning of June, beating Illustrious Blue and Crime Scene, but has shown no form since, though Goodwood is a course he loves, with five wins and four places from 12 runs. I also have on my side against the favourite Stoute’s Warringah from a yard in magic form after Harbinger and Kingsgate Native this week, and Indian Days, a Goodwood winner exactly a year ago. 2.45 Goodwood (Stewards Sprint): Talk about a handicap: there’s only 8lb between 20 of the 24 runners: stick a pin in that little lot! And note that the three-year-olds (Parisian Pyramid for Dandy Nicholls) are all virtually level weights with the older horses: two second-season animals have been placed from 10 runners in the last decade and, if you rate Fault because he ran third to Anglezarke at York, you can get 66.0 on the Daq as I write. Nicholls is Mr Nap Hand: he has won this race five times in the last 10 years, has had at least one horse place in each of the last five years, and has five entered in it today. I think Northern Dare is his best chance: he’s on form and likes the ground but has never won above class-3. So the more sensible bet (did I say sensible in this cavalry charge without a lightweight brigade?) is Harrison George: has won in class 2 for in-form Richard Fahey and has done well this year in difficult circumstances. Drawn three, he could come with a run down the stands rail, as he enjoyed at York in May and as Kingsgate Native did here yesterday in the King George. 3.25 Goodwood (Totesport Mile): Kavachi has the draw and likes the ground but is six-years-old and Ryan Moore deserts his dad’s horse in favour of Docofthebay, a badly drawn firm-ground winner. See what I mean about a tricky race. Extraterrestrial has three bonuses: soft ground, stall 19 and Freddie Tylicki. That’s why he’s the one they all want to be on this morning and is new favourite in most books but where he is Spectait should be on form. Of the other high draws, Vitznau is a 7f horse and Cloudy Start is unproven on the ground and has a high weight for a three-year-old, though he is improving. I’m going for the race-ride of his life from Jamie Spencer: Lovelace, a Group-2 winner, is the class horse of the race; Mark Johnston is yer man for Goodwood yet again; and the colt has won on soft ground. Spencer rode him when this slow starter weaved through the field for the Royal Hunt Cup – the best pointer for today’s race – and won his ‘race’, only to find that he was merely leading the group home on the wrong side (he was in stall 24 where winner and second came from one and five). He’s 16.5 on the Daq as I write. 4.00 Goodwood (Richmond Stakes): Richard Hannon, who won this last year with Prolific, has Dick Turpin going for a hat-trick. The last 10 winners had all won previous to this race, though Rakaan’s placings have been in illustrious company, Canford Cliffs and Xtension. The ground will decide between Dick Turpin  and Rakaan; I can’t. Everything else has gone for a walk on the Betdaq market, including Bould Mover, fifth to Monsieur Chevalier in the Molecomb Stakes on Tuesday. But an easy price is never a worry about Godolphin horses, and I am taking 8.8 Buzzword each way: the rails draw will help a horse who was hanging left at Windsor and the softer ground will surely help a Pivotal. Get your flying boots out, Frankie! 4.35 Goodwood (RSA Nursery): Suffolk Punch stopped a gamble on Cadley Road at Epsom, and that one went on to spreadeagle a fair field at Sandown. ‘Punch’ is being laid like a shire horse, despite his high draw; I really can’t understand why he’s 16.5 on Betdaq this morning. Black Snowflake is well entered up, including a big September sales race, in which Gunner Lindley and Tres Coronas are also engaged.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to lose 10pts CRIME SCENE (2.10 Goodwood) BET 1pt win and place on each HARRISON GEORGE and PHANTOM WHISPER  (2.45 Goodwood) WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 4pts win and 1pt place LOVELACE, and 2pts win and place EXTRATERRESTIAL (3.25 Goodwood) BET 2pts and 2pts place BUZZWORD (4.00 Goodwood). BET 1pt win and 1pt place SUFFOLK PUNCH and 2pts win (saver) BLACK SNOWFLAKE (4.35 Goodwood) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Thursday's Return was: PROFIT 7.50 points
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