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Friday 17 July
DAQMAN
10 POINTS A DAY: Daqman has been winning around 10 points a day lately, with 16 days in profit out of the last 23. But today is tricky.
WEATHER BLOG: The going all round the country was threatened by rain as Daqman addressed the form at each meeting this morning, so that his column almost resembles a blog in his search for answers.
TWO BANKERS: He had two bankers but makes them both each way because of the weather.
Continual rain is the punter’s enemy: that’s when it’s usually fine but interludes of rain suddenly change the ground. Continuous poor weather or continuous dry weather are punter friendly because consistent going equals consistent form.
Today’s one of the worst kind: heavy rain, volume as yet unknown, forecast to pour on to a firm surface. From where I’m sitting, the going could be anything. It’s a day of ‘if’ and ‘but’ and ‘only if’.
‘Only if the ground is suitable’ will Lady Rusty run in the 3.45 Newbury, says the Racing Post. What does that mean? Wet or dry, or in-between? And when will we know the trainer’s decision?
The ‘pogo-stick’ measurement of the ground has come in for a lot of stick (pun intended) but may have its use in this context. The trainer could be confined to giving a going-stick parameter (‘will run only if ground 8.0 and better’). We don’t even get ‘will run only if soft enters the going description’.
That would be a start but, again, only if the racecourse executive told trainers and punters a regular ground assessment by calls to the trade Press, by public address and on the internet.
Come on, which racecourse will be first to realise that there is a whole world out there on line being completely ignored by racing authorities? Tracks are all eager to sell tickets on line; why not open blogs for going updates etc.
It’s currently left to the Racing Post and Sporting Life websites but at 9.30 a.m., the Post site still forecast ‘heavy overnight rain’ at Newbury (without telling us if it actually happened) but had the ‘going stick’ at good to firm, 9.1 and 8.5. Yet non-runners were timed on the same page at 9.19: couldn’t we have had something more concise about the weather at the same time?
News of the weather is crucial for the assessment of the Rose Bowl (3.10). As the Post’s Spotlight says of the favourite, Showcasing: “Pedigree suggests give underfoot would not be ideal.” Strangely, in quotes about the horse on the ‘Today’s Action’ pages, John Gosden’s secretary makes comments but was not asked about going preference.
In the same quotes, Tom Dascombe says of Walkingonthemoon: “Ready to go if the ground’s suitable.” Suitable for what: frying eggs on the surface or making mud pies? Surely we can be told something more succinct.
It’s very hard to leave Showcasing out: the Oasis Dream colt pushed the subsequent July Stakes winner, Arcano, to a head first time out.
Another strong favourite, Ashram (4.55) has a chance aptly described in the Spotlight as ‘shouldn’t be any excuses unless ground alters significantly.’ You have been warned, and I will add to that by pointing out the penchant for soft of virtually everything else in the race!
Bonnie Charlie was second in a Group 3 on soft, The Cheka loved cut when winning by 10 lengths at Ascot as a two-year-old and Summer Fete stayed on well, albeit in a slow time, to win a Listed over today’s course and distance on the soft last backend. Her trainer won the race last year with Easy Target.
Both Showcasing and Ashram are odds on, as I write, and no way can I take such prices – or lay them – with the going so suspect.
At 9.40 a.m, the situation worsened; no not the weather, the reports of it. The Sporting Life website came up with: ‘Haydock Good to Soft (Good to Firm from winning post to 1m start)’ but the Racing Post changed its Haydock going to ‘Good (Good to firm in places; going stick 7.9).’ Still nothing on Newbury.
I’m chancing my arm at Hamilton: my best bet of the day needs rain and hopefully is getting it: Alicante (9.00 Hamilton) is 4.0, as I write, so in the circumstances I’m happy to go each-way, instead of my usual 10-point banker.
Alicante is a Pivotal and, if the rain comes in quantity, will be a short price (bet and lay?): she has been seen working a couple of lengths to the good over recent winner Uncle Brit and the filly could be one of those Prescott sequence horses.
I can’t blame the papers, or lack of communication by the authorities, for not knowing the Newmarket ground, since rain is scheduled for later on: I am hoping to back Magnificence (6.10) and rain for a daughter of Sadlers Wells would probably be welcome but she has been working well anyway.
I’m not too keen on two-year-old’s first time out but Magnificence looks a very classy filly from the Stoute yard and has done plenty of work. Her quality nature is really exciting the lads, and the way she has destroyed her rivals at home - even made older leads look moderate - suggests she is a cut above average.
Stoute’s are never known to be knocked about on the debut but I think we need to get involved with this little lady from the start before she’s courted by others and is never available again; at least, not at a trade like the 4.0 currently up on my Daq.
Back to this afternoon, and still only half-sure about the weather but seemingly certain of soft at Haydock, where I think we’ll have some pace on in the Bjorn Again handicap (Abba better go at naming that one, please) at 4.05.
Potential front-runners are Dametime, Desert Falls and Lochan Mor, who is not guaranteed to like the soft ground. Come And Go, Desert Icon and Lucky Numbers have all taken to plenty of give.
Come And Go holds Desert Falls and Grissom, and Lucky Numbers is dropped in class, with Philip Robinson an interesting booking. But I can’t have a Bill Knight (Desert Icon) at the moment: he’s missing strike with eight placed, but no winners, from his last 14 starters.
Come And Go, though 11.5 on Betdaq this morning, is the only course-and-distance winner in the race (and that win was with ‘soft’ in the going return), and is the only raider on the track today for Alan Swinbank.
Lucky Numbers is 7.4, so I’m dutching in the ratio of about 4.5: 3 Lucky Numbers and Come And Go.
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