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Friday 10 July
DAQMAN
NOW IT’S 11 IN A ROW: Daqman dispatched another morning favourite yesterday to bring his current run to 11 in a row, 57 out of the last 66 for an 86% strike rate. The lay, Orpen Grey, was second.
WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: Yesterday was tricky but big fields and high-odds trades are back today, prompting Daqman to attempt a jackpot bet to win 50 points in the Bunbury Cup.
BIG-RACE BISMARCK: Again Daqman puts his feared Bismarck on one of the big-race favourites.
Does Scenic Blast have a booster in that five-furlong rocket? He steps up a furlong from the King Stand Stakes and it’s a long, long way up that Newmarket straight.
To take him on in the July Cup, you need a horse that can lie up close enough - but not too close as to burn out in the slipstream – and have the extra gear and stamina to deliver a challenge. There’s only one, as far as I can see.
1.30 Newmarket (Premier Handicap): Crackdown’s form when making all at Ripon was franked by the runner-up, Firebet, yesterday and he almost made it again from the front against older horses at Sandown.
But that’s in keeping with the current Mark Johnston form in the big handicaps right now: he’s just missing strike, and I think something will come along and catch him again today.
Lightly-raced Sovereign Remedy can beat Mohtashem for the third time but Brief Encounter shouldn’t be written off, having started favourite for the Brittannia; I could dutch them this morning at 6.4 and 7.4 in the stakes ratio of roughly 3.5:3 to win 15 points whichever one wins.
2.00 Newmarket (Superlative Stakes): Emperor Claudius could turn around Chesham form with Big Audio, because he didn’t get a clear run early on that day. Equally, Big Audio was green and came off a line near the finish, or might have won further.
I certainly can’t take 8-5 ‘Claudius’ this morning when there are six twice-raced potential improvers against him.
Big Audio’s stablemate Lucky General should make sure they get a move on and, with eight runners here, I’m keen to get one placed at a decent trade: Lord Zenith will pay better than evens as insurance for a tasty 7.2 the win, as I write, and I like the families his breeding represents; there’s speed and stamina and high class all the way down the lines.
2.35 Newmarket (Bunbury Cup): Seven furlongs is a specialist trip so I’m ruling out those who’ve already tried and failed, such as Beaver Patrol (seven 6f wins) and Benandonner (three at 1m) and I don’t think the ground is soft enough for Headford View (not travelled over well) or Redford.
Extremes of the draw (2 to 6 and 14 or higher) usually win this but they were finishing down the middle in the big fields on opening day: middle-to-high numbers won the first race and, immediately afterwards, stall 11 completed a double (stall 8 was second) in the 20-runner 6f handicap.
The field for the Bunbury Cup is the same size and you’d expect the jockeys to follow that first-day lead: Jimmy Fortune is in a good position to choose his path on Racer Forever (14), who was a close fifth in stall 30 when the result by draw of the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot was 4, 2, 10, 7; he won the far-side group and had Mister Hardy and Dhaular Dhar (stall 20) well back.
Plum Pudding should take the low numbers along, and – as ever – he’ll very nearly stay in front, and could run the race out of inexperienced Captain Brilliance (stall 1); Jeremy Noseda won the Hunt Cup with a similar type, Forgotten Voice, but it would be unheard of for a stable to pull off the same trick again within the month.
Giganticus has won this race before but scored recently and doesn’t usually run two races alike: Signor Peltro should run him close on Rowley Mile form.
But Signor Peltro is worse off at the weights despite being behind Dhaular Dhar in the Victoria Cup, and Dhaular Dhar is also better off with Laa Rayb and Giganticus whom he divided at Ascot when failing to get a clear run in a big handicap there a year ago.
Older horses have by far the best record in this, and I’m happy with Betdaq trades of 15.5 Racer Forever and 34.0 Dhaular Dhar for a tilt at my win-100 jackpot bet, splitting the stakes.
3.10 Newmarket (July Cup): Seven of the last 10 July Cup winners came from the six highest stalls, and we know from the opening day that a bit of extra rocket fuel will be needed for Scenic Blast to take them along from stall two.
Art Connoisseur is on that side and he landed the Golden Jubilee in fine style (J J The Jet Plane 4th and badly-drawn Kings Apostle 10th), though the draw was particularly kind to him then and the runner-up, Cannonball, was much further behind Scenic Blast and Fleeting Spirit in the Kings Stand.
But they don’t come on and win this from the Kings Stand: only the Golden Jubilee one-two has finished one or two in today’s race.
African Rose is the nearest thing to champion Marchand d’Or in France; she gets further but it’s debatable whether there is enough juice in the ground for her and she was put in her place by Paco Boy at Longchamp (7f) on Arc day.
Richard Hannon was determined to make a miler out of Paco Boy and whether that’s blunted his speed for this remains to be seen; over further, he has shown a high cruising speed and has thrived off a positive pace. The one draw will allow him to settle just off the lead, with the rails to help later on; there’ll surely be fresh turf there by that time.
He’s a double-your-money place banker on Betdaq to get in the first three. His Queen Anne win was right out of the top drawer, on a par or even better than his defeat of 1,000 Guineas winner, Natagora, last autumn.
Yesterday the ground was perfect for him: check out the results; every race was run slower than average. There’s been a heavy dew and it’s no scorcher this morning so it won’t have dried out that much.
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DUTCH 3.5pts win BRIEF ENCOUNTER and 3pts win SOVEREIGN REMEDY (1.30 Newmarket)
BET 2pts win and place LORD ZENITH (2.00 Newmarket)
LAY to win 10pts CAPTAIN BRILLIANCE; plus WIN-50 JACKPOT BETS 3.5pts win and 1pt place RACER FOREVER, and 1.5pts win and 1pt place DHAULAR DHAR (2.35 Newmarket).
PLACE BANKER: 2pts win and 8pts place PACO BOY (3.10 Newmarket)
We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.
Thursday's Return was: LOSS 4.58 points
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