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Ireland's Eye on Tuesday

Tuesday 30 June

IRELAND'S EYE 

Stratford tonight sees a six race card which sees several challengers from the Irish yard of Liam Burke and we will be giving our verdict on their chances whilst an ex Irish point winner takes his chance in the closing bumper for Tim Vaughan. Another former Irish trained runner looks to have decent prospects in the opener while a former pointer/hunter chaser can land a handicap chase.
 
Following our 5 from 5 on Sunday we just failed to make it a treble from our selections at Wolverhampton yesterday with our nap Colouroftheglen (7/4-6/4) landing a maiden and Red Cadeaux (9/2) easily took an earlier handicap with one of our savers Decorum (3-11/4) following him home while our third selection Mudhish (8/1) ran quite well to take third under Jamie Spencer.

The opening maiden hurdle at Stratford tonight at 6-45 over 2m 1/2f will not require a lot of winning and the market is headed by the ex Paul Nicholls trained bumper winner Penyfan Dawn who is now having his first run for the in form Tim Vaughan yard. He must have prospects on the back of his fair fourth placing in a similar Worcester maiden six weeks ago on just his second start over timber. With ‘Dickie’ Johnson on board he looks the one to beat but there could be much better value in siding with the ex Dermot Weld trained Consulate who is making his debut for the Edwards yard with Daryl Jacob on board. Though the useful three time flat winner (up to a mile and a half on good and yielding) did seem to lose his way in latter efforts on the flat he hinted that a contest such as this could be within his capabilities on his hurdle debut at Killarney seven weeks ago where he finished a fair seventh in a competitive maiden over 2m 4f where he had a subsequent winner in Fier Destrier just in front and another subsequent easy scorer Ballyadam Lee behind on that occasion. Though the fear is that this trip could prove to be on the short side he could go close on the strength of his flat form where he was rated in the low 100’s and at the odds he represents decent value against the favourite. Liam Burkes King Keano looks to have too much to do on the evidence of his sole start.
 
Johnjo O’Neill and Tony McCoy will be expected to land the 2m 4f hc chase at 7-45 with the three time chase scorer Keepitsecret who was only just touched off on his sole start at this track in 2007 in a 2m 7f hc hurdle. The eight year old has done the majority of his winning over longer trips that this but nevertheless he is racing off the same mark as when finishing a decent second to the progressive pointer/chaser Dead Or Alive at Worcester over around this trip some three weeks ago where a blunder at the second last did not help his chances. However he acts on the ground and has the invaluable assistance of McCoy. He may have to give second best on this occasion however to the improving 9yo ex pointer/hunter chaser Cheeky Lad who has struck up a good relationship with his 7lb claiming rider. A winner of a Ludlow hunter chase over this distance and a close second to Overlut over 2m 1 1/2f at this venue on penultimate outing he acquitted himself well on final run when overcoming a tardy start to finish runner up to Irish challenger Tubber Gael Holly over the course and distance last time. The former course winner can land the spoils for the Michael Keighley yard from the Nigel Twiston Davies trained Commemoration Day who also boasts a fine course record (2 wins and 2 seconds from 5 starts) and comes here on the back of a second to Templar over a slightly longer trip on this track.
 
Paul Nicholls and jockey Harry Skelton can combine to land the 2m 7f novice chase at 8-45 with the French bred Pacha D’Oudairies. The 6yo is having his third start over the larger obstacles and has managed to take second spot on all starts to date, including one over course and distance when narrowly beaten by Black Beauty. Although he gives the definite impression that he would be better suited by going right handed his main opponents here hardly represent a tough challenge and with question marks against the attitude of Warsaw Pact - a 129 rated hurdler on his chase debut and the 8yo Cannon Fire seemingly unable to break his run of seconditis over fences (7 runner up placings and two thirds from 12 starts) it could be left to the three time hurdle winning mare Cresswell Ruby from the Goldsworthy yard and 3lb claimer Rhys Flint on board to give the selection the most to do on her chase debut as the 7yo does have a win from her only start at this track on admittedly heavy ground.
 
ADVICE
3pt win 1pt place CONSULATE 6-45 Stratford
1pt win (saver) PENYFAN DAWN 6-45 Stratford
4pt win CHEEKY LAD 7-45 Stratford
2pt win (saver) COMMEMORATION DAY 7-45 Stratford
lay to lose 5pts KEEPITSECRET 7-45 Stratford
5pt win (nap) PACHA D’OUDAIRIES 8-45 Stratford
1pt win 1pt place CRESSWELL RUBY 8-45 Stratford

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Monday's Return was: PROFIT 14 points

DAQMAN on TUESDAY

Tuesday 30 June DAQMAN  75 POINTS PROFIT IN THREE DAYS: Daqman was in sensational form yesterday for the third day in succession, bringing his profits since Saturday to more than 75 points. 14-1 WINNER: His four winning bets included Gala Sunday (won 14-1), Ensnare (won 17-2) and Major Phil (won 9-2), taking his total to 40 in the last 16 days. PLACE BANKER:  Artistic License (3rd 5-1) was his third successful place special out of four. And his lays are currently on five in a row. BETDAQ-RACES BONANZA: Two of Daqman’s winners yesterday were in Betdaq-sponsored races; only last Wednesday he gave three in a row (two wins and a lay) in Betdaq events. Since then, he’s also had winners at 8-1, 5-1 and 9-2 (nap). Most winners were running in their own class or lower. This is a first base from which to work on form. The only routine exceptions to this are improvers at age two and three, when development may be dramatic. That was how a general rule of thumb for studying a race was given to me. My mentor probably didn’t have the stats on Sir Michael Stoute at the time or he would have added that ‘four-year-olds and five-year-olds can improve considerably with certain trainers.’ Witness yet another superb performance by Stoute in winning Sunday’s Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud with the five-year-old Spanish Moon, who is actually banned from racing in UK for his habit of playing up at the start. Stoute has wrought such improvement in Spanish Moon – unseen by British punters – that he is now a possible for the Arc. French backers on the PMU knew more than us about this entire’s latent ability: they had him vying for second-favouritism (dividend less than 5-1) while our industry prices allowed him to start 8-1 on Sunday. Spanish Moon didn’t just win; he scored in a time more than four seconds faster than normal for the Saint-Cloud surface. Anyone having a snigger – ‘the Arc? Daqman, you must be dreaming’ – and thinking only in terms of second-season meteors like Fame And Glory and Sea The Stars, would do well to remember this belated little Sunday sermon. The bible – the form book, of course – will tell you that Spanish Moon’s fast time was despite softened ground; it will tell you that he had the runner-up in the 2008 Arc, Youmzain, three lengths adrift in third; and, if you go far enough back, it will tell you that the good knight Stoute has worked such oracles before with the likes of Singspiel and Pilsudski, somehow sending them soaring into the Group-1 stratosphere at the age of five. Pilsudski won the Champion Stakes and was runner-up to Peintre Celebre in the Arc; and, at the same age, Singspiel won the International and the Coronation Cup. A measure of their improvement may be gleaned from their finishing first and second in a Group-3 (the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown) in the April of the previous year. Incidentally, which horse was this year’s ‘Gordon Richards’ winner? Tartan Bearer, aged four, trained by M Stoute. Never gives up, does he! I wonder, will that one stay in training next year? He’s been placed in three Group-1s already, including a little race called the Epsom Derby. Spanish Moon and Tartan Bearer seem sure to be formidable opponents in the next 18 months with Stoute’s Peter Pan magic at work on them. Class acts today are even thinner on the ground than in Britain’s Got Talent but, if Richard Fahey didn’t have a runner in the race, I’d go banco on Metroland (2.45 Hamilton). Fahey is in amazing form but, on past results, his Gap Princess needs another furlong or two, whereas Metroland has won twice at today’s 5f and her extreme hold-up tactics at Newmarket and Haydock were because of higher class and a sixth furlong. She should get a good tow from Cayman Fox today. Fahey’s Stateside (3.45) should nearly win but Talk Of Saafend has been given a massive chance by the handicapper: she’s now down 20lb in 10 weeks, and has scored five times from July to September. She’s a stone bonker for a claimer in the next few weeks but this is worth a go. At 17.0 the win and 4.0 to get in the frame, I’ll make ‘Saafend’ my place special. Yirga (8.00 Thirsk) is the banker, seemingly ready to step up on his Sandown handicap success after an impressive gallop at the weekend. Granted the pace, he will be too strong for these.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win METROLAND (2.45 Hamilton) BET 1pt win and 2pts place TALK OF SAAFEND, and 2pts (saver) STATESIDE (3.45 Hamilton) BANKER 10pts win YIRGA (8.00 Thirsk) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Monday's Return was: PROFIT 42.62 points
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Ireland's Eye on Monday

Monday 29 June

IRELAND'S EYE 

Wolverhampton this afternoon and the BETDAQ sponsored handicaps later in the card will form the basis of our betting strategy for the day with a Jamie Spencer ridden 4yo tipped to land a 7f contest while a twice tried sort can land a maiden at shorter odds.
 
It was 5 out of 5 yesterday when three of our main choices came home in front, including our nap Alfred Nobel (5/2 morn – 6/4) at the Curragh and we also got our lay of the day up in the same race with Kitty Kiernan (4/1) finishing out of the money and we followed that up with the Irish Derby winner Fame And Glory (5/6-8/11). Indeed it proved a treble for us at the Kildare venue when our selection in the last Truckers Delight (4-3/1) beat our saver and place bet Dreamy Gent (20/1). At Uttoxeter meanwhile our savers Whats Up Bob (13/2-11/2) scored for the Irish from our main choice All Three Fables (5-4/1) and later there was more glory as Fire And Rain (14-7/1) took the long distance chase.

Ed Dunlops Red Cadeaux can provide the solution to the 12f BET WIMBLEDON TENNIS – BETDAQ hc on the all weather at Wolverhampton at 3-30 today. Though it was good to soft ground last time at Ripon when he finished third in a fair maiden over 9f he nevertheless was staying on from off the pace in the style of one who should be suited by a step up in distance and the unexposed 3yo can land this contest on his fourth start under former champion rider Seb Sanders where the similarly unexposed Decorum rates a danger. The Gosden runner does have the distinction of finishing fourth at Great Leighs behind the subsequent King Edwards VII Stakes winner Father Time on his third start and he has run well in finishing third on his two subsequent starts over 10 and 11 furlongs – the latest at Newbury on good to soft. However the main danger to the selection could come from the admittedly more exposed Calaloo from the Charlie Egerton yard who is just one of three subsequent winners in the contest having scored over a mile at Bath and has been running well when taking the third berths over todays trips on recent starts.
 
The 7f maiden at Wolverhampton over 7f at 4-40 should mainly concern the twice raced Bradford and Colouroftheglen who are making their all weather debuts. The first named stepped up on his debut effort when staying on to take second in a Newcastle 6f maiden three weeks ago and looks ideally suited by a step up in trip here under Andrew Elliott. However the vote goes to the Tom Dascombe trained Colouroftheglen who was second on soft ground over 6f on his debut at Haydock and he subsequently went down narrowly to his market rival on better ground over this trip at Linfield despite not having the best of the draw. He does not look to have the same handicap today and granted that he handles this surface he should prove too strong for Bradford while the debutant Execution from the Ed Dunlop yard is feared most of the newcomers.
 
A typically tough handicap for the BETDAQ THE BETTING EXCHANGE handicap over 7f at 5-00 and here we will side with Fleeting Star, Major Phil and Midhish against the 12 strong field. The first named is a relatively unexposed 3yo filly from the Noseda yard who did win over 6f on her only all weather starts at Linfield and her seasonal debut effort at Goodwood may have been needed. Major Phil who won in good style over 6f at Great Leighs at the end of last year has been somewhat disappointing at this distance in his last couple of starts but with the handicapper relenting he cannot be dismissed lightly as he hails from the shrewd Luca Cumani stable and has the promising William Buick on board. We will side however with the Jamie Spencer ridden Mudhish who represents Clive Brittain and though the 4yo dual winner (once over this trip) cannot be described as the most reliable of sorts he was only just beaten on sole run with this rider on board and boasts a second and fourth placing on this track from as many starts. He will be suited by the hold up tactics which his rider often excels at and at the forecast odds he rates a sporting bet to beat the progressive filly Fleeting Star.
 
ADVICE 
3pt win RED CADEAUX 3-30 Wolverhampton
1pt win (savers) CALALOO and DECORUM 3-30 Wolverhampton
5pt win (nap) COLOUROFTHEGLEN 4-30 Wolverhampton
1pt win (saver) EXECUTION 430 Wolverhampton
3pt win MUDHISH 5-00 Wolverhampton
2pt win (saver) FLEETING STAR 5-00 Wolverhampton

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Sunday's Return was: PROFIT 32.88 points

DAQMAN on MONDAY

Monday 29 June DAQMAN  FIVE IN A ROW: Daqman made it five lays in a row when he defied Youmzain (3rd 10-11), the odds-on beaten favourite for the Grand Prix at Saint-Cloud yesterday. 36 OUT OF 42: His strike rate is running at 86%, with 36 up from the last 42 favourites laid, 51 from the last 60. TWO BANKERS: Last week was a hot week with a triple whammy on Wednesday (consecutively, two winners and a successful lay), a double up on Thursday (including a 5-1 winner) and a 9-2 nap and 8-1 winner on Saturday. Look out today for two place specials, both bankers of their kind. We are wiser men this morning, after Fame and Glory’s scintillating win yesterday. And, we wonder, was one man, John Oxx, wise before the event? If he didn’t duck the Irish Derby, he’ll certainly think twice now before pitting Sea The Stars against O’Brien’s Curragh winner. But the clamour will start today for a return match of the Epsom one-two in ‘the Race Of The Century’ (they always call it that). Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory are two entirely different colts, the one totally relaxed with a generous, intelligent disposition, the other – as his trainer belatedly discovered - needing his engine cranked up to high revs by a seering pace and a distant target. The head of steam he got up yesterday had to be seen to be believed, as others that were neck or nose near to him at Epsom were left somewhere out in Kildare county needing a Satnav. For the good of racing (they always say that, too, and they’re probably right this time), we should see a showdown, breeding interests or no. With the Eclipse (Sea The Stars next race) and Ascot only three weeks apart, is the King George a realistic date? The alternative is the Arc after a long season. It is, indeed, in racing’s interests, not only to stage this decider but also to ensure that it gets maximum publicity outside the sport. Nothing less than a race of champions will do and Ascot must be the venue. Having ditched the St Leger on breeding grounds, we can’t let the Arc dictate so late in the season, with its draw difficulties and likely soft ground. If Sea The Stars couldn’t run on yielding yesterday, he’s unlikely to start in the Arc. Sorry, Sandown, but I ask John Oxx to think again about the Eclipse: let’s have a king from the King George. These two colts have names alone which will generate publicity; they are amazing athletes and we have a stadium to show them off, Ascot having proved at the royal meeting that Saturday remains the optimum day for public response. We cannot afford to miss a king-making occasion that could help reverse racing’s own eclipse in a world of sport where £80million is spent on one man’s skill and a city schedules its rebirth around an Olympic Games. Both are happening in England now. Let’s make it happen for racing in the British Isles. We already owe a huge debt to Irish breeding and training, which can now put the sport back on a pinnacle with these two stunning colts. Meanwhile, at Pontefract, I’m looking at three-year-old fillies rated nearly four stone below those Classic colts. I’m looking at them as potential losers. Strangely, a total of 32 three-year-olds have tried and failed to win the fillies’ handicap (3.45) in the last decade. Theoretically, then, we can dismiss nearly half the field. It’s certainly worth having a bet among the older horses, which make up a total probability of only 67% in the Betdaq win market, reckoning at the trades available as I write. Artistic License, for instance, is 5.5; that’s 9-2 the win in what we think is a five-filly race. Placed 15 times from 27 starts, she is better than evens to reach the frame at 2.11 a place. Though two years her junior, she has already improved past Mango Music in the ratings, and both trainer Mick Channon (eight wins, 13 placed) and jockey Darryll Holland (15 winners) have been in fine form in the last fortnight. Place banker. The old boys just keep on winning this season, don’t they: Gala Sunday (2.15) is now nine and won’t have improved any, surely; but his astute trainer has the CD winner 6lb lower than when he was beaten little more than a length in the Pontefract Ladies’ Handicap last year under the same top rider, who has already taken the pot twice in the last seven seasons. The partnership has scored five times together and was also beaten a length off 59 in the prestigious Dorothy Laird Memorial at Beverley last summer; the same two races are the target again off this much lower 52 rating. Gala Sunday is a huge 14.5 for today’s first leg. At Musselburgh, Jim Goldie has done a similar job with another old boy, Kyber (6.55): he’s got him up for a repeat in the Bollinger series 4lb lower than when he won the race last year. 3.30 Wolverhampton (Bet Wimbledon Tennis – Betdaq Handicap): Decorum is the day’s best bet; he’s worked with the best at home. After early-season grouping with Rainbow View, he impressed with Saturday’s Pretty Polly winner, Dar Re Mi, in a recent gallop. An each-way banker at 4.3 this morning, with 70% of your win stake back if he’s only placed. 5.00 Wolverhampton (Betdaq The Betting Exchange Handicap): Major Phil and Fleeting Star should both return to form back on AW, and both have requisite low draws here. At the morning trades, I’m dutching for an 18-point profit, betting roughly in the ratio 5.6:4.8, which I will charge to the account as five and four. 5.30 Wolverhampton (betdaq.co.uk Handicap): Ian Williams is going great guns with seven out of his last 17 runners placed, and Ensnare goes handicapping with a chance in class-6. The entire, Ninth House, has never held his form before and a high draw and welter weight look fair stoppers.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place GALA SUNDAY (2.15 Pontefract) EACH-WAY BANKER: 5pts win and place DECORUM (3.30 Wolverhampton) PLACE BANKER: 1pt win and 4pts place ARTISTIC LICENSE (3.45 Pontefract) DUTCH 5pts win MAJOR PHIL and 4pts win FLEETING STAR (5.00 Wolverhampton) BET 1pt win and place ENSNARE (5.30 Wolverhampton) BET 3pts win KYBER (6.55 Musselburgh) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Sunday's Return was: PROFIT 7 points
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DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 28 June DAQMAN  BIG-RACE NAP UP AT 9-2: Daqman is going for a big-race double at The Curragh today, trying to add the Irish Derby to his nap in the Pretty Polly Stakes yesterday, Dar Re Mi (won 9-2). 8-1 WINNER: Daqman was also in the money at good odds at Windsor when he picked the all-the-way sprint-handicap winner Tamagin (won 8-1). FOUR IN A ROW: With his lays currently on four in a row, there’s another big-race favourite in his sights today, as he finds bets from Group races in Ireland and France to a Summer National in rural England. The Irish Derby is a bit like today’s Racing Post interview with Jim McGrath: if you ask silly questions, you get silly answers. At the end of the interview, the only thing you know for certain, because there’s a photo, is that the Jim McGrath they’re talking to is Popeye and not the Melbourne Pope. It’s the same if you ask the silly question of the day at The Curragh  - will Aidan O’Brien win the Derby?  - you are still not much wiser, since he saddles 55% of the field. The Post interview is billed as ‘inside the mind of Jim McGrath’ (let’s not even go there). There’s many a punter would have preferred to get ‘inside the mind of Aidan O’Brien’ but the running of the Epsom Derby suggests that, again, they would be no better off. Expectations of a tactical battle of baton-passing pacemakers – raised to a fever pitch by that Team Ballydoyle huddle on the track – were not realized and the race was always to Sea The Stars and John Oxx. Maybe Aidan was merely being curious like today’s Post interview: ‘Listen, you guys, I know it’s a funny time to ask, but what’s your favourite film?” In theory, O’Brien has been gifted with the first three in today’s Derby; that’s according to the official ratings. But it’s close; it’s a four-way photo. The Ballydoyle 1-2-3 is the Epsom second, third and fifth, Fame And Glory on 120, Masterofthehorse on 119 and Golden Sword 118, but only another pound behind is Gan Amhras, well beaten that day but, according to trainer Jim Bolger, failing to act on the tricky downs course. Certainly defeat at Epsom is no bar to winning this: O’Brien has had three Irish Derbys in a row with the 3rd, 5th and 11th in the English version all coming on to win. Another Epsom 3rd and a French Derby runner-up have also scored at The Curragh since Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral consecutively did the double between 2000-2. Second silly question of the day - is Johnny Murtagh on the wrong one? - is the same silly question as: will Seamie Heffernan complete an Irish Derby hat-trick? The race is not always to the strong – I still wouldn’t back Som Tala for the Pitman’s Derby if they lined up again tomorrow – but, despite countless protestations over the years about the peculiarities of the Epsom track, the best horse invariably wins the Derby. I backed Gan Amhras and, much as I might like today to prove my judgement correct – that revenge will be mine and Jim Bolger’s - it is highly unlikely that he can turn around more than 16 lengths with Fame And Glory. It is also unlikely that Golden Sword’s front running will suit The Curragh. On the other hand, I fancy, Masterofthehorse (4.20) will be more at home than freewheeling around Chester, where Golden Sword had the legs off him, or being held up around Epsom, though he only just failed to catch Fame And Glory for second place. The ground was firm at Chester and good at Epsom; today’s yielding surface could also help give a son of Sadlers Wells that vital edge. Jim Bolger’s ‘Scurry’ record is 1110001 in a race won by three-year-olds eight times in the last decade, three of them his. That’s two reasons for backing Seachantach (2.40) but maybe the colt’s having won only on Wednesday and the 10lb claimer board are two reasons not to back him. Trades of 9.8, with a return of 14 to every 10 bet for a place, is Betdaq’s answer: risk somewhat allayed. After Beach Bunny’s terrific effort in the Pretty Polly, I was going to make her conqueror of last month, Emily Blake, my nap in the Celebration Stakes (3.40) but the ground may have dried out too much for this mud-loving front-runner. Since a sometime sprinter, Empirical Power, and another catch-me runner, Jumbajukiba, may join in a battle for the lead, the scene is set for a killer pace. On all known form, only Famous Name (3.40) – has won over further - can do a hold-up waiting game and spoil their party. It’s a race as fascinating as the Derby, and we’ll probably get two ‘books’: the market you see now and the one created in running by whichever of the front-runners gets his or her way. Bet in both at the different trades. Meanwhile, Famous Name’s conqueror last time out, Curtain Call, is a drifter in trading on the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud, presumably because a sultry day – warm and cloudy – means drying ground in the Paris area, too. He has yet to win over today’s trip or on good or firmer ground. I’m discounting Alpine Rose and Ideal World, winners over shorter here in slow time, and the likely fast pace means that Magadan is likely to overturn Chantilly form with Scintillo.  But my bet of the race has to be to lay Youmzain (3.30). The 2.39 about last year’s winner is just not big enough for a six-year-old who’s already been beaten by Spanish Moon in the Sheema Classic and has recently had a hard race (form let down by Look Here yesterday) when pipped by Ask at Epsom. If he wins, this professional loser will cost me very little of the 1,378-point lays bank I’ve built up. He’s already a part of it, after 11 times finishing in the first four with just the one win. He should win it but, there you go, he should have won more of those 11; I’ve got eight younger horses on my side. I think it’ll be close; it’s that sort of day. A day for jockeyship. Whoever is master of the horse wins the races. Talking of jockeyship, before I go I must have a pound on the English Summer National at Uttoxeter. It’s sponsored by a building society; can’t see any other interest coming my way. The jockey in mind is A.P. McCoy on a 3m front-runner (Sea Wall): can he settle this beast, conserve his energy and win over threequarters of a mile further? That’s another one to watch on a fabulous Sunday. The distance of the race has been reduced and Fourty Acers (4.25), fourth in it when it was 4m last year, has been prepared for the event again with a first-time visor to help.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and place SEACHANTACH (2.40 The Curragh) LAY to win 10pts YOUMZAIN (3.30 Saint-Cloud). BET 4pts win FAMOUS NAME (3.40 The Curragh) BET 5pts win (nap) MASTEROFTHEHORSE (4.20 The Curragh) BET 1pt win and place FOURTY ACERS and 1pt win SEA WALL (4.25 Uttoxeter). We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Saturday's Return was: PROFIT 23 points
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Ireland's Eye on Sunday

Sunday 28 June

IRELAND'S EYE 

It’s the third day of the Derby Curragh meeting and though the ‘Crown Prince’ Sea The Stars will not be lining up in the weekend feature there looks good value in one of the bigger priced contestants for a place while at Uttoxeter an Irish runner looks to have fine prospects in a long distance chase with ground to suit.

Dar Re Mi (9/2) proved our only winner on Saturday though Alandi (9/4) looked somewhat unlucky not to land the Curragh Cup but Blue Ridge Lane (8/1) ran well to finish a close third in a handicap. However we failed to get our only lay of the day Andhaar (5/6) turned over at Lingfield.

The supporting card at the Curragh this afternoon features the Railway Stakes and here Aidan O’Brien is attempting to win the race for the 11th time in 13 runnings and is represented by the Leopardstown 7f winner Afred Nobel. Though he did take three runs to open his account he probably needed his debut effort over 5f at Naas when just beaten and where he had one of todays rivals Love Lockdown behind in third whilst heavy ground may have resulted in he failing to justify favouritism when finishing a close third over course and distance next time. Todays trip could prove ideal and he is taken to upset the likely favourite Kitty Kiernan who boasts a victory over subsequent Albany Stakes runner up on her debut at Naas though she had to admit defeat to that rival in a rematch over the same circuit subsequently. However we will side with the colt against the filly on this occasion in this Group 2 6f event at 3-10 with the irrepressible Johnny Murtagh in the plate.

A big field lines up in the extended two mile and a half handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter at 3-50 but it may be wise to concentrate on a couple of the lower weighted and progressive mares. Runaround Sue who did not make any impression in a few starts ‘between the flags’ in Ireland has hit form of late when a tongue tie has been re-applied with wins at Market Rasen and Hereford at 2m 4f and 2m 6f in admittedly ordinary handicaps which has seen the 8yo and likely favourite go up 6lbs in the handicap. A better bet however could be the Mackie trained runner All Three Fables who won and was placed in a bumper on this course and recently went up 7lbs for a hard earned success in a Stratford extended 2 mile handicap hurdle. Her last run saw her stay on in the closing stages over 2m 1f after meeting with interference and the Seamus Durack ridden 5yo could be suited by the extra mileage here and with ground to suit she can land her third win. Irish challenger Whats Up Bob cannot be discounted either from calculations as the former Gowran handicap hurdle winner over the trip has been running reasonably well in competitive handicaps and this test represents an easier challenge and the Donal MacAuley (claims 5lbs) ridden 7yo should not be far away as the ground and trip look ideal.

All eyes will be fixed on the feature event of the day and th Irish flat calendar at 4-20 when 12 runners line up for the Irish Derby where Aidan O’Brien is going for four in a row. With the stable responsible for all bar three of the runners it looks well odds on that the prize will again go to Ballydoyle but which of the stables representatives will it be? With the defection of Sea The Stars the mantle of favouritism falls on the Epsom Derby runner up Fame And Glory to confirm the form of that race with stable mates Masterofthehorse and Golden Sword. The impressive Derrinstown Stud Derby Trail winner tasted his only defeat on that occasion and though there may be some grounds for thinking that Masterofthehorse in particular could overturn that result he does not look the most straight forward and Johnny Murtagh who surprisingly rode him at Epsom in preference to Fame And Glory sides with the latter today. Though the price is relatively skinny the Murtagh ridden colt just gets the nod to uphold Epsom form with Masterofthehorse whilst the Kevin Prendergast trained Recharge looks the best win/place option at bigger odds.

The Listed handicap chase at Uttoxeter today at 4-25 sees a couple of Irish challengers in the Paul Cashman mare Brotenstown while Willie Mullins sends the former Kerry National winner Bothar Na in this 3m 4f chase. The former looks to have plenty to do however but Bothar Na must have prospects off a high weight with Paul Townend taking off 3lbs. Though the 10yo has won on all types of grounds he is arguably best on a better surface and his fair third placing off a high weight to stable mate Ballytrim (rec 7lbs) at Punchestown over 3m 6f some two months ago gives him decent prospects here. However he may struggle to give 11lbs to the Johnjo O’Neill trained bottom weight Sea Wall – a two time chase winner who seems to be improving in the jumping department and though he is up 10lbs for an easy all the way success at Ffos Las nearly a fortnight ago over 3 miles he could prove a hard nut to crack here with Tony McCoy in the saddle with ground/trip to suit. Another who should be considered is the Emma Lavelle trained Fire And Rain who has scored three times over fences from six starts and though the 6yo has only won going right handed he gives the impression that going left handed here could suit as he tends to jump left handed and he remains open to further improvement with good or better ground ‘right up his street’.

The finale at the Curragh is a competitive 2m handicap at 5-35 which boasts a poor record for the favourites in recent times and here the vote goes to the ‘Shark’ Hanlon trained ex pointer/hurdler/flat racer Truckers Delight. Though the 8yo has not scored in four attempts on the flat he nevertheless has run some fine races in defeat and his most recent second to the subsequent easy Tipperary winner Rajik (received 14lbs) at Gowran over the distance a week ago reads well in the context of this race. The Declan McDonagh ridden gelding acts well on yielding and better and he can land this prize at the expense of another ex National Hunt performer Dreamy Gent who has admittedly been somewhat disappointing on the flat of late but races off a low weight here but does boast a placing at this venue.

ADVICE
5pt win (nap) ALFRED NOBEL 3-10 Curragh
lay to lose 5pts KITTY KIERNAN 3-10 Curragh
4pt win ALL THREE FABLES 3-50 Uttoxeter
1pt win (savers) WHATS UP BOB and RUNAROUND SUE 3-50 Uttoxter
4pt win SEA WALL 4-25 Uttoxeter
2pt win and 1pt win (savers) FIRE AND RAIN and BOTHAR NA 4-25 Uttoxeter
5 pt win FAME AND GLORY 4-20 Curragh
1pt win 1pt place RECHARGE 4-20 Curragh
3pt win TRUCKERS DELIGHT 5-35 Curragh
1pt win 1pt place DREAMY GENT 5-35 Curragh

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Saturday's Return was: LOSS 18 points

DAQMAN on SATURDAY

Saturday 27 June DAQMAN  WATERED DOWN: Daqman’s plans for a jackpot bet have been hit by heavy rain, which affects particularly the Pitman’s Derby at Newcastle and The Curragh today, and he sticks to each-way chances. Check out the non-runners around the racetracks. IRISH DERBY HIT: The weather means that Sea The Stars is now a very doubtful runner for tomorrow’s Irish Derby. CRACKING PRETTY POLLY: But there’s a cracking Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh today, and Daqman picks out a Northern stable with two top chances at Newcastle. Tear up the morning paper. Rain has turned the Newcastle going to soft and it could be heavy by the time they line up for the Pitman’s Derby. On the face of it, the weirdest thing about such a long race as the Northumberland Plate is that low-drawn horses hold sway (six wins out of nine); however, when you examine the results, it’s clear that pace runners win on firm ground, getting a van position from any starting stall, but hold-up horses take the pot on good-to-soft to heavy ground and, for them, a rails berth is ideal for being waited with. Of the low stalls, you could fancy Wells Lyrical (stall 2 but absent 63 days), Som Tala (drawn 4 but wins only in small fields), Friston Forest and The Betchworth Kid (in 3 and 1 but both high in the handicap), Hits Only Vic (stall 8 but looks exposed) and Hendersyde (5, though up in class and weight) but there’s no ground evidence for Keenes Day and Desert Sea is a non-runner because of the rain. Speed Ticket, in 9, is cursed by a recent hoodoo on five-year-olds (no wins in the last decade): that’s normal; it’s the year most handicappers are running exposed. But Speed Ticket has hardly seen a racetrack; he must still think today is a Sunday-school outing. He’s got a one-page CV, with five runs, compared with others in the race of the same age: Record Breaker (23 runs), Hits Only Vic (21), Ajaan and Friston Forest (15 each). The sprint handicap (2.35) has also gone to hold-up horses (from stalls 7, 8, 9) every time it’s been on the soft side this century: Tajneed and Thebes should give a lead today to one-time 7f soft-ground Listed winner Ponty Rossa, who is back to form but still well handicapped: 7.4 on Betdaq as I write. I wanted to recommend a lay on morning-favourite Thebes, as a front runner, then new favourite at about 10 o’clock Atlantic Story (no wins at 6f; not won on turf since 2004) but things changed so quickly this morning and neither fronts the market as I write. Ponty Rossa’s yard could also be in the money with Game Lad (3.45), winner of the race two years ago on heavy ground, and handicapped within a pound of his winning rating that day after two quiet runs back: 9.4 on the Daq. Mark Johnston produces one of the best juveniles in his yard, Lowdown (4.20), with most to fear from Chaperno, an improver at home since running green on the debut. But how the pair will take to the ground is anybody’s guess. My best gallops news is for Kindest (5.10 Windsor); she has been working smartly with highly-regarded Pyrrha and takes in her first handicap off only 72, fully expected to reverse maiden form with Candy Ride. Unfortunately, the world and his wife were on this one this morning down to 3.35 on the Daq. Wokingham also-rans, front-runner Tamagin (9.8 on the Daq this morning), not given the best of rides at Ascot, and Jimmy Stiles, drawn on the wrong side that day, should fight it out for compensation from decent draws in the 3.35 sprint handicap. The ground at the Curragh has turned soft after rain, to the detriment of tomorrow’s Irish Derby; Sea The Stars must be very doubtful now. Nor will it help Lush Lashes (3.40) in today’s Pretty Polly. It’s Katiyra weather but she’s failed to make the grade in Group 1 so far. Look Here beat them both in last year’s Oaks but Classic winners have a poor record in this and Dar Re Mi, a winner on the soft at Deauville, and runner-up to the subsequent Arc winner Zarkava in the Vermeille, gets my vote.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and place PONTY ROSSA (2.35 Newcastle) BET 3pts win and place SPEED TICKET (3.10 Newcastle) BET 2pts win and place GAME LAD (3.45 Newcastle) BET 4pts win JIMMY STYLES, 2pts win and place TAMAGIN (3.35 Windsor) BET 6pts win (nap) DAR RE MI (3.40 The Curragh) BET 4pts win LOWDOWN and 2pts (saver) CHAPERNO (4.20 Newcastle) BET 4pts win KINDEST (5.10 Windsor) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Friday's Return was: LOSS 9 points
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Ireland's Eye on Saturday

Saturday 27 June

IRELAND'S EYE 

It is all about the Curragh this afternoon where there looks to be good prospects of an English success in a Group 3 event while the featured Pretty Polly Stakes can go to an in form yard on her seasonal bow. Also at Lingfield this evening there are sound reasons for siding with a debutant on the all weather in a BETDAQ sponsored maiden.
 
With a dramatic change in the going at the Curragh yesterday it was no surprise to see our selections go ‘down the tube’ though our nap Elusive Galaxy (7/1) was not disgraced in finishing runner up to the complete outsider while at Market Rasen our saver Baron De Doc (9/4-7/4) just went down in a novice hurdle.

Though the 3-10 at the Curragh today looks quite competitive there could be value in siding with the Joanna Morgan trained 4yo Fourpenny Lane to return to winning ways in this 7f Premier fillies handicap. It must be said that the daughter of Elfisio has been most disappointing this season so far but the application of first time blinkers and the aid of the top class 3lb claimer Paul Townend could bring about a reversal of fortune. The prevailing easy ground should pose no problems and though she has not won beyond 6f she does boast a placing over this distance and she has now dropped to a reasonable mark in a race where cases can be made for several of the runners with the progressive Hallie’s Comet looking the most likely winner if the selection again fails to deliver.
 
Feature event at the Curragh is the Pretty Polly over 10f at 3-40 and there is a strong English presence with the John Gosden trained Dar Re Mi and Ray Beckett’s surprise English Oaks winner from last Look Here. It is always difficult to oppose Classic winners in such contests but Look Here has shaped as if a mile and a half plus is her ideal trip and here late flourish when just beaten in third in a blanket finish to the Coronation Stakes behind Ask at Epsom bears testament to that. However the Gosden raider Dar Re Mi rates a more likely winner here under Jimmy Fortune as she has scored over the trip and she displayed all the right qualities when just losing out in a Group 3 York event over 1m 2 1/2f six weeks ago and boasts form (including winning) on an easy surface. Despite the claims of the Gosden runner she may have to play ‘second fiddle’ to the John Oxx trained Katiyra who is making her seasonal debut. A three time winner from 7f up to a mile and two the daughter of Peintre Celebre is a course and distance winner (Blandford Stakes) and though she is making her seasonal debut this yard ar not noted for leaving anything to chance and the Mick Kinane ridden 4yo can get the better of Da Re Mi.
 
Luca Cumani’s Mad Rush is the sole overseas challenger in the Group 3 Curragh Cup at 4-15 and the 5yo can land the prize for the visitors. Though the 5yo has not scored at this distance he has shaped as if the step up in distance will suit as he was far from disgraced in taking seventh place in the Melbourne Cup over 2 miles at Flemington last year and though he has to find some nearly three lengths with another of todays rivals – the mare Profound Beauty on that running he showed his well being with a gusty all the way win in a Listed Goodwood event over a mile and a half on his seasonal debut over three weeks ago. In addition he will be suited by the ‘cut’ in the ground and he could face his biggest challenge from the lightly raced Oxx runner Alandi who looks ideally suited by plenty of give in the ground and landed his maiden here on heavy last year over twelve furlongs. Though he failed to confirm placings with Hindu Kush at Navan over this trip last time at odds on he looks the main hope of the Irish to keep the prize at home.
 
Usually it is unwise to tip up lightly raced maidens in competitive handicaps on their handicap debuts but when that trainer is the shrewd Dermot Weld then an exception can be made. His Blue Grass Lane could prove the answer to the 1m 2f hc at the Curragh at 4-45 under useful 3lb claimer Shane Gorey on just his fourth start. However the 3yo has been far from disgraced in taking third placings the last twice and on the first of these he finished a couple of lengths in front of one of todays rivals Beidh Tine Anseo over a mile at this venue on heavy ground and he is now 15lbs better off with that rival who has scored twice in the interim. The step up in trip should suit and off a nice racing weight of 8-10 he can spring a minor surprise.
 
The BET IN RUNNING – BETDAQ maiden on the all weather this evening at 6-50 brings together several well tried sorts at the head of the betting. Chief amongst these is the likely favourite Andhaar for Ed Dunlop who has been placed on four of his seven starts to date, including two over the distance but he is hardly one to take too short a price about. The filly Nesayem arguably makes more appeal as she steps up to a mile and two for the first time having shaped as if a more demanding test would suit in staying on efforts at 7f and a mile. With question marks against he main players the answer could be to side with the newcomer Anessia from the in form Tom Dascombe yard with Richard Kingscote in the plate at the prices.
 
ADVICE 
3pt win FOURPENNY LANE 3-10 Curragh
1pt win (saver) HALLIE’S COMET
4pt win KATIYRA 3-40 Curragh
2pt win (saver) DAR RE MIL 3-40 Curragh
5pt win (nap) MAD RUSH 4-15 Curragh
2pt win (saver) ALANDI 4-45 Curragh
2pt win BLUE RIDGE LANE 4-45 Curragh
3pt win ANESSIA 6-50 Lingfield
lay to lose 5pts ANDHAAR 6-50 Lingfield

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Friday's Return was: LOSS 26 points

Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Preview

Saturday 27 June

Join Sky Sports Pundit ED CHAMBERLIN in his regular Weekend Sports Preview below. Simply press play below to tune into Ed's exclusive DAQCAST - covering a whole host of weekend betting opportunities on the DAQ from the Lions to the Irish Derby.

ED CHAMBERLIN'S WEEKEND BETTING PREVIEW

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DAQMAN on FRIDAY

Friday 26 June DAQMAN  SYSTEM DOING WELL, SEND MORE MONEY: Daqman takes another look today at betting-exchange systems after a debacle yesterday. 5-1 WINNER: A double, which included 5-1 winner Jairzihno, was landed on a low-stakes day, and today is a similar assessment of Betdaq-sponsored races at Folkestone. LOOK OUT TOMORROW: Daqman unleashes his jackpot bets and daring lays on Northumberland Plate day tomorrow at the start of the two-day Classic meeting at the Curragh. I think Bill stayed under the covers this morning. The ‘system’ called the Eight O’Clock Wake-Up Call tolled the knell for another losing method yesterday. The ‘system’ was to oppose paper-forecast favourites when there were new market leaders on Betdaq, spot checking each race at 8 a.m. Granted this was only day one, but the results leave Bill playing catch-up, more than 100 points down: of six ‘selections’, 10-1, 5-2 and 7-4 lays all won their races, delivering a 112.50 loss to 10-point level stakes. Maybe Bill should reverse the system and make it ‘back forecast favourites that drift early.’ But I would be more inclined to concentrate on new favourites nearer the ‘off’ time when the money for them means something; that, and other more rewarding views of the Betdaq market, will be aired in this column occasionally in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, one or two more from the Winning Betting-Exchange Systems tipping sheet that dropped through Bill’s letterbox. These systems guys like to use emotive pseudonyms, like the famous Dum Spiro Spero of the old Handicap Book days. There’s a time ‘expert’ who calls himself Tempus Fugit and a seven-day-winners follower named Carpe Diem (they like to suggest they’ve been to evening classes at least). As ever, I would say: nice try; but time, recent form, and so on, are only part of what goes into assessing a race. In fact, the seven-day-winners system, given its fodder on the Racing Post ‘signposts’ page these days, is one I have already advised Bill that I tend to use in reverse. Note that, for those listed in the Post today, their trainers have a maximum 16% strike rate with such runners: 16 winners are not going to go anywhere near compensating for 84 losers in a series of 100. Carlitos Spirit (6.30 Newmarket), Keisha Kayleigh and Trouble Mountain (both 6.50 Newcastle) are horses turning out quickly in the hope of cashing in on their peak of fitness (if they’ve held it) with 6lb penalties to hamper them. Sonny Parkin (6.30 Newmarket) hasn’t got one because he won an apprentice race but is trying to beat a revised rating which will put him up 4lb from tomorrow. I would look at their past history: Sonny Parkin has never managed to run two races the same; fourth is his best run after a win. Keisha Kayleigh’s figures after scoring are 20242. Trouble Mountain started his career with a brace but, since then, his figures after a win have been 00242320. Carlitos Spirit has landed back-to-back wins before but there was a break of five weeks in between. But Caribbean Coral (3.05 Folkestone) has done it twice before with breaks of 15 days and, recently, 10 days which puts him on a three-timer bid today, and he certainly looks well placed by his trainer again. The immediately obvious flaw in many systems is that they draw an arbitrary line; for instance, Callisto Moon (3.40 Folkestone) has won within EIGHT days yet doesn’t qualify. Let’s analyse these Folkestone races. 2.30 Folkestone (Bet Irish Derby – Betdaq Maiden): Tom Dascombe (Valmina) has done well with his two-year-olds this year (11-45) but George Baker should at last get into the money. Harry Findlay has got his way with the George Baker trained gelding having George Baker, jockey, on board. But, in the names game, I think he’s been gazumped in this race by Keen Bidder (by Auction House out of Lady Love); nice one. The problem for punters, unless you’re Harry Findlay, is that George Baker is odds on, as I write, having been seventh in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. 3.05 Folkestone (Bet Test Match Rugby – Betdaq Claimer): Another odds-on shot with 10-year-old Caribbean Coral (George Baker again), bidding for a hat-trick after success in two sellers. The race hinges on whether there is rain enough – heavy thundery showers are forecast – for the top rating in the race, Kelamon, 7lb clear of Caribbean Coral on official figures. I have to take a risk from my long-range position: 10.5 gives me the chance to bet again in the race and, of course, should Kelamon be backed to anywhere near his rating value, I have the perfect bet and lay. I am tempted to make him a place banker at 3.75, as I write; but, again, this bet is speculative on the weather. If I knew the rain would come for certain, and the going would change, this morning’s price would be a goldmine. As it is, I have to remain panning in the shallows of uncertainty. From where I’m sitting, I’ll take the 10.5 each-way (place staked to cover win bet), and have a small double on the George Baker mounts. 4.45 Folkestone (Bet In Running Betdaq Handicap): For a bet in running, I’d rather it was front-runner Luminous Gold (4.15) in the previous race: he was 18.0 on the Daq this morning and will, surely, crash in price during the race since he led twice in the one he won last time out. Even if only a few points come off as he sets the pace, his willingness to fight back should see him reduce again. Bet and lay, but recorded for the Archives as a point each way. Rough Sketch in this 4.45 shows how throwing money at potential from a horse’s breeding doesn’t always pay off: there’s 105,000 guineas to recoup from Rough Sketch (Peintre Celebre out of a Sadlers Wells mare). Generous Lad has taken over the market lead on Betdaq as I write (are you reading this, Bill?), leaving the first-time-blinkered Rough Sketch at an each-way price where the place part covers 90% of my win stake. I’m betting that the blinkers save Sir Mark Prescott’s blushes (oh, and mine). TODAY'S BETS BET 4pts win and 2pts place KELAMON (3.05 Folkestone) BET 1pt win and place LUMINOUS GOLD (4.15 Folkestone) BET 2pts win and place ROUGH SKETCH (4.45 Folkestone). DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double GEORGE BAKER (2.30 Folkestone) and CARIBBEAN CORAL (3.05 Folkestone) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Thursday's Return was: LOSS 0.05 points
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