Betdaq Extra

Ireland's Eye - Friday

Friday 27 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

It was carnage for those who concentrated on Thurles yesterday with a series of unfancied and bigger priced winners to swell the satchels of the layers and though a few of our choices did take placed money it was a highly forgettable day in the main.

Todays action in Ascot, Fontwell and at Dundalk tonight offers much more encouragement and we will be siding with a couple of horses who did the business for us last times and there could be some value in a top weight in one of the handicaps at the Irish night fixture.

It is always a worry to side with horses who could suffer the ‘bounce’ factor as often the second run back can sometimes not quite match the original effort but we will nevertheless give the vote once again to Lavender Track from the Arbuthnot yard in the opener on the Fontwell card at 2-10. The dual bumper winner did the job well to score on her hurdle debut 11 days ago and she can follow up at the expense of the other penalised runner Call Me A Legend in this 2m 2 1/2f mares novice hurdle under Andy Thornton.

French Saulaie has not ‘hit the heights’ to date over fences but it could be worth siding with the 8yo in the 2m 1f novice at Ascot at 2-55 on his eight attempt. However he will not get a better chance to open his account against this opposition in receipt of 6lbs if his jumping holds up and the better ground can see the Richard Johnson ridden and Philip Hobbs trained gelding see off Mutenbar who finally opened his account after 21 attempts a fortnight ago.

Former point winner Mizen Raven scored at the third time of asking over fences in a Ludlow 2m 4f handicap last time and the Philip Hobbs trained 6yo should be capable of following up under a 7lbs penalty in the 2m 5 1/2f hc chase on the Ascot card at 3-30 under ‘Dickie’ Johnson. Though this is far from a straightforward task he should be suited by the step up in trip whilst the good ground will not be a drawback and he could have more progression than the Henrietta Knight trained South Bank off a lower weight.

Bumpers are often dfficult to appraise and throw in drying ground they can prove even more of a riddle but the Fontwell finale at 5-40 could see some value in supporting the debutant from the in form Tim Vaughan yard Presenting Jet in this 2m 2 1/2f event. Related to the formerly useful Phardante Flyer the 5yo could prove of interest here under Seamus Durack where the main danger looks to be another debutant and likely favourite Benartic from the Henderson yard while the value place bet could be the cheaply purchased recent snug point winner Premier Khan.

Ger Lyons is leading trainer at the Dundalk track since its opening over a year ago and he is mobbed handed at tonights fixture. It is his runner Ashka in the 7-00 – a mile handicap which catches the eye under the useful Keith Latham. Although the 4yo mare is making her seasonal debut and has to shoulder ten stone she may be able to confirm the form with Spiritana (subsequent Wolverhampton scorer) on their running over course and distance back October whilst another mare, the progressive Pat Martin trained Kaitlins Joy who could pose the major threat.

ADVICE
5pt win (nap) LAVENDER TRACK 2-10 Fontwell
5pt win FRENCH SAULAIE 2-55 Ascot
2pt (saver) MUTENBAR 2-55 Ascot
5pt win MIZEN RAVEN 4-05 Ascot
2pt win (saver) SOUTH BANK 4-05 Ascot
3pt win PRESENTING JET 5-40 Ascot
1pt place PREMIER KADAM 5.40 Ascot
3pt win ASHKA 7-00 Dundalk
2pt win (saver) KAITLINS JOY 7-00 Dundalk





 

DAQMAN on FRIDAY

Friday 27 March HE’S DONE IT AGAIN! Daqman laid the odds-on morning favourite Rippling  Ring (2nd at evens, SP) yesterday, describing the horse as one of Paul Nicholls’ biggest flops. It was beaten 40 lengths. 13 IN A ROW: That makes a record 13 consecutive successful lays in 21 days since the Thursday before Cheltenham. And there’s another one today. ON THE BALL: Daqman was also on the ball when he warned about the Lincoln Handicap favourite before this morning’s statement by the stable that a decision on his taking part will not be made until tomorrow. GRAND NATIONAL: Today Daqman names his Grand National ante-post bets but leaves his Lincoln choices, including a promised outsider, until the big day. The reason for betting ante-post is to get better odds than you can expect on the day but the shape of each race in this year’s Spring Double has been guesswork until now. Most of the top-weights at Doncaster have stood their ground, turning the so-called Lincoln Handicap into no more than a conditions race with only a 9lb spread among the fancied horses, whereas the reverse has happened in the Grand National. Most of the top weights have come out, leaving a handicap so open that you can bet to some 20% underround on Betdaq, excluding the ‘rags.’ But the betting won’t remain open for long. Every year, there is a move for a horse which takes off and becomes a nationwide steamer in the race: this year, Butlers Cabin is surely a candidate after the huge publicity about Tony McCoy’s 3,000 winners, his being out of luck in the race so far and Butlers Cabin’s demise at second Becher’s when seemingly going well 12 months ago. I can see him starting favourite at 6-1 or so. Beneficiaries from the weight changes include Rambling Minster, now likely to figure in the winning-weight region of around 10st 8lb. The last four Aintree winners had had 14 or fewer chases in their career, and almost 70% of recent winners were aged in double figures: strangely, Rambling Minster is as close as you can get to both stats; though now 11, he has had only 15 races over fences and seems still to be on the upgrade. I said yesterday that the Expresso Star gamble in the Lincoln could have a bitter ending, and John Gosden’s yard now warns that, though he has a draw on the likely pace side of the race, the rain he needs has so far not fallen. I’m going to recommend that, if you must have a Spring Double in this difficult year, you should place it at 3 o’clock tomorrow: I will explain why in the morning when I spring an outsider on you. Like my Grand National discussion, the veterans’ race at Ascot today features Tony McCoy among the favourites because he’s Tony McCoy; it also gives the Reveleys’ Rambling Minster yard an opportunity; and it’s also about the weather. McCoy’s mount, Hobbs Hill, is trying a new trip and trying cheekpieces, both suggesting desperation after his poor start to the year. Church Island could do with some rain; his chance depends on when the ‘more frequent showers this afternoon’ actually arrive, if at all. Henry Daly had been out of form until a couple of winners this week but Briery Fox has to bounce back. He was behind Out Of The Black in this last year and the Hobbs-Johnson hope must have a big chance again. The Reveleys’ Ungaro has been dropped 5lb by the handicapper and Rhys Flint makes that 10lb. The trip from Yorkshire looks worthwhile. At 7.8, so does a Betdaq bet. He won’t mind a bit of rain. Flint will be fancied on the smart Hobbs novice, Barnhill Brownie, in the conditional-jockeys’ final but can’t use his allowance in this race, where Edward Cookson can. Cookson’s mount, Shannon Springs (5.15), has finished first and second on his only previous starts at 3m and will be getting a stone from ‘Brownie.’ Don’t Tell The Wife has even less of a burden, is lightly raced and the claimer cancels out most of his penalty for winning three weeks ago. He’s my saver in case of rain. There are four previous winners over fences in the novices’ chase, yet French Saulaie (2.55) fronts the market, though he hasn’t won for two years and has been beaten favourite in four of his six previous chase starts. Lay. ’Frequent showers’ are also forecast at Fontwell, where front-runner Tamarinbleu (3.55) could find out the flaws in Numide and Harper Valley (both up in trip) and Font and Warsaw Pact (both heavily penalized by the handicapper). Tamarinbleu has to give weight all round but is some 10lb lower over hurdles than his mark in major races over fences, and 8.0 each way on Betdaq absorbs the risks. Another quality horse with every chance of giving the weight away is Designated Decoy (9.25) at Dundalk tonight: Sunday’s Irish Lincoln third has veterans to beat, other than the five-year-olds Ludwigshaven (poor maiden) and Key Decision, representing Class-5 Southwell maiden form and not well suited by the conditions of today’s race.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 10pts FRENCH SAULAIE (2.55 Ascot) BET 2pts win and 2pts place TAMARINBLEU (3.55 Fontwell) BET 2pts win and place UNGARO and 2pts win (saver) OUT THE BLACK (4.40 Ascot) BET 2pts win and 2pts place SHANNON SPRINGS and 2pts win (saver) DON’T TELL THE WIFE (5.15 Ascot) BET 6pts win (nap) DESIGNATED DECOY (9.25 Dundalk) BET 2pts win on each, both 13.5 this morning, BUTLERS CABIN and RAMBLING MINSTER (Grand National ante-post)
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Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Preview

Friday 27 March

ED CHAMBERLIN'S WEEKEND BETTING PREVIEW

International friendlies are notoriously difficult punting propositions and England’s game against Slovakia is no different. Even though it’s not one to get heavily involved in, it may be worth the smallest of interests interest. Firstly, Slovakia have had some fairly good results of late – winning three of their opening four World Cup qualifiers, including a 2-1 win against Poland. They will be no pushovers, as England have found out in the past, coming from behind to win 2-1 both times they’ve played them. We can’t possibly back England at 1.3 on the Daq, so let’s have a small go at Slovakia half-time / England full-time at 23.0.

The Tartan Army had one of their greatest ever road trips 18 months ago when they went to Paris and watched their team defeat France 1-0. They can raise their game against the best opposition, but they will have to take it to another level tomorrow night against Holland. The Dutch are quite simply awesome on home soil. Their last competitive defeat in the Netherlands was against Portugal in October 2000 and since then they have won 18 of their 21 home games, winning half-time / full-time in 17 of them, by two or more goals 16 times and keeping 17 clean sheets.

Punters will always regard Holland as slightly frustrating having failed to win a major tournament since 1988. However, their recent qualification record at home is nothing short of outstanding and they have won their opening three games of this campaign. Their supporters have the added benefit that the last time the Scots came here they were thrashed 6-0 back in November 2003. George Burley has struggled to adapt to international football and his side have failed to score in two of their three qualifiers so far, as well as their last two friendlies.

Although the Dutch have made the perfect start to qualification, they have been nowhere near top gear yet and I have a sneaky feeling they will give someone a hammering soon. The Scots will have to do without key personnel like David Weir, Kris Commons and Kirk Broadfoot, whilst Barry Ferguson and Stephen McManus also have fitness doubts. Everything points to a comfortable win for the Orange Army and I’m tempted to back a 2-0 and 3-0 home win at 6.5 and 9.0 respectively on the Daq

Meanwhile, Ireland are joint top of Group Eight with Italy thanks to three wins and a draw from their opening four games. That all sounds very impressive, but when you see that they have come against Georgia, Cyprus and Montenegro enthusiasm is dampened slightly. Their home record in World Cup and European Championship qualification is very strong though – suffering just two defeats in their last 34 games since 1996.

A dominant feature of Ireland’s home matches in recent times is that they tend to be low scoring, with 15 of their 18 home qualification games against teams ranked in the top 55 since 1996 all featuring two or fewer goals. Bulgaria, who will be missing star striker Dimitar Berbatov, fit in nicely with Ireland’s record, with 15 of their last 22 competitive away matches ending with less than three goals. I’m tempted to throw something at the draw at around 3.3 on the Daq and wouldn’t put any of you off siding with under 2.5 goals at around 1.78.

Onto horseracing and finding the winner of the Lincoln Handicap, the flat season’s traditional curtain raiser, used to be like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Not only did you have to spot a horse that was potentially at least 10lbs ‘well-in’, you also had to make sure you were drawn on the right side of the track in a field of at least 30! It’s therefore no surprise that the shortest priced winner of the race between 1988 and 1996 was a massive 16/1.

However, things have become a little easier in recent years with a new maximum of 22 runners and the favourite has obliged in four of the last ten renewals. In fact, seven of the last ten winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter. If you look down the list of recent winners of the race, it appears that a better type of animal is now being aimed at the contest. The last five winners (Smokey Oakey, Very Wise, Blythe Knight, Stream of Gold and Babodana) were all, quite literally, ‘Group horses running in a handicap’.

Therefore, rather than looking for a well handicapped handicapper (if that makes sense), I think the starting point has to be the search for that one potential Group class animal plying his trade in a lesser grade. That search will not take long as John Gosden’s Expresso Star stands out by a mile at 5.5 on the Daq. He showed really progressive form at the backend of last season and appears to relish some cut in the ground, so the forecasted bad weather is just what he wants.

He has the ideal profile for the race and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this fellow going close in Group company on his next start. The one worry would be the drop back in trip, but if the word ‘soft’ appears anywhere in the going tomorrow, I think he’ll bolt up. Gosden landed the Kentucky Derby trial at Kempton recently proving that he already has his string in good nick.

Elsewhere on the Doncaster card, look out for the Barry Hills’ trained Above Average if declared in the 4.30pm contest. Word from the yard is that he is just that and is expected to leave his two year-old form well behind. He still holds a Derby entry so will have to win impressively here for connections to consider a trip to Epsom.

Tomorrow’s best flat racing action definitely comes from Nad Al Sheba where over £4 million is up for grabs in the Dubai World Cup at 5.30pm. Albertus Maximus looks plenty short enough and I definitely give a chance to Far Eastern raider Casino Drive at around the 5/1 mark.

However, the best betting opportunity on the card looks to be King Of Rome at around 13.0 in the Dubai Sheema Classic at 4.40pm. The Mike De Kock trained ex-Aidan O’Brien inmate looked to be coming to hand recently and word from Dubai is that he is expected to go close. His South African handler is a maestro at getting improvement out of ex-Ballydoyle trained runners and can land the Dubai Duty Free 45 minutes earlier with Archipenko. He’s another who has apparently been working well and looks a knocking each-way bet at 6/1 now he has left Ireland.

We have just over a week to go until the Grand National and I’m pretty sweet on the chances of Irish Invader at around the 36.0 mark on the Daq. Willie Mullins’ charge jumps for fun and if he stays, I think he’ll go very close. Anyway, I’ll be back next week with far more on the National…

Good Luck!

 

Ireland's Eye - Thursday

Thursday 26 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Next Tuesday we will have a detailed look for value on the Daq for the Aintree Grand National and put forward a couple of value bets for what is the highlight of the year for many passing and indeed some hardened players.

Meanwhile yesterday saw us register another brace of winners through the well backed pair of Spanish Conquest (1/3-1/4) and Rockiteer (11/8-evens) whilst our saver Speed Bonnie Boat (13/8-11/8) also delivered and Caveman (7/1) finished runner up in the hunter chase in Towcester.


Our main bets are in Thurles today with a couple of bigger priced selections while a former pointer could reap dividends in the bumper in Towcester.

Willie Murphys yard continue to be in fair form ‘between the flags’ and he can land the opening 2m maiden hurdle in Thurles under Barry Cash. Though he took some time to land his maiden point the 5yo was only just touched off by Realt Dubh on one occasion and there was plenty of merit in his second to Fixed Fee in Cork in January as the form has been upheld by the winner and placed horses. Drying ground looks ideal for the son of Silver Patriarch and he can land the spoils here at the expense of obvious danger and quite useful flat performer Peacock’s Pride and the consistent Knocklayde Vic.

Ocean Cowboy let us down with a bang in Gowran last weekend but we will stick with the Brian Jordan trained former useful pointer in the maiden hurdle at 3-25 in Thurles over 2m 3f. Though undoubtedly disappointing on Saturday it was felt that the ground was somewhat tacky but todays good ground should be right up his alley and with promising 3lb claimer Matt O’Connor taking over in the plate he can land the odds from another former pointer (maiden) Ma Arnai who will also appreciate the ground and Clarkey who is tried in first time blinkers.

The Howard Johnson yard are creeping back to form and they could be on the mark in the 3-35 in Carlisle – a 2m 5f novice chase with the 6yo Checkerboard on his fourth start over the bigger obstacles. The better ground should be an aid and stand in jockey Timmy Murphy can deliver the goods here.

There are plenty of question marks against the main protagonists in 2m 2f novice chase in Thurles at 4-30 but with Noel Meades yard looking to be in better form of late the vote goes to the Paul Townend ridden Narquois who has shaped reasonably well on his first couple of runs over the larger obstacles. Though the 8yo is returning from over a four month absence he may prove the answer here at the expense of Swiftmarc and the first time blinkered Earth Magic.

An open looking 2m novice hurdle faces punters in the 4-30 in Towcester but here there could be value in siding with the fair flat racer Benedict Spirit from the Mark Tomkins yard following a fair first effort over timer. The 4yo showed his wellbeing on the flat recently and he may be capable of scoring here under Colin Bolger at the expense of ex French winning mare Ruthenoise who was ‘in over her head’ in Cheltenham last time.

The hunter chase at 4-55 on the Hereford card over 2m 3f could prove the perfect vehicle for the decent point winning mare Dancing Credit who has looked a doubtful stayer ‘between the flags’. Though the 9yo has to overcome an absence she does get all the allowances and with her regular pilot taking off 7lbs she could prove hard to peg back on this easy circuit and she can beat obvious danger Tighe Caster and likely favourite Red Man.

Towcester is definitely one of the most demanding tracks in these Isles and though the closing bumper on their card at 5-35 sees a couple of previous winners in addition to a couple of well regarded runners from the Nicky Henderson yard it might pay to side with a former point winner in the shape of Caragh Bridge. The 5yo showed plenty of battling qualities in landing his maiden from admittedly a subsequent long standing maiden The Ferbane Man (has scored in interim) in Affane the trip and ground could see the Carl Llewellyn trained gelding take the honours here at decent odds at the expense of Lady Rhinestone whilst another former point winner Only The Best cannot be left out of calculations.

Racing concludes in Thurles with an open looking mares bumper at 6-00 – not everyones idea of a ‘getting out’ medium but this could produce a value bet in the Mark Molloy trained Long Long Time under Andrew Duff. The daughter of Dr Massini produced a good effort to land her sole start in points with an emphatic win in Belharbour on decent ground and was far from disgraced in taking fifth berth in a winners contest ‘against the boys’ in Navan subsequently. She could prove the answer here at the expense of obvious danger Miss Abrahnovic from the John Kiely yard with Nina Carbery on board.

ADVICE
5pt win THELOBSTERCATCHER 2-50 Thurles
2pt win (saver) PEACOCK’S PRIDE 2-50 Thurles
5pt win OCEAN COWBOY 3-25 Thurles
1pt place MA ARNAI 3-25 Thurles
5pt win CHECKERBOARD 3.35 Carlisle
4pt win NARQUOIS 4.30 Thurles
3pt win BENEDICT SPIRIT 4.30 Towcester
2pt win (saver) SWIFTMARC 4.30 Thurles
4pt win DANCING CREDIT 4.55 Hereford
1pt win (saver0 TIGHE CASTLE 4.55 Hereford
3pt win CARAGH BRIDGE 5.35 Towcester
2pt win (saver) ONLY THE BEST 5.35 Towcester
3pt win LONG LONG TIME 6.00 Thurles
2pt win (saver) MISS ABRAHNOVIC 6.00 Thurles





 

DAQMAN on THURSDAY

Thursday 26 March DARK-HORSE GAMBLE WINS: Daqman’s first runner in his 30 horses to follow, the ‘dark horse’ Haakima, was gambled in to odds on before winning at Kempton last night. 13 IN A ROW? Today Daqman puts his current lays record – 12 consecutive – on the line when he opposes an odds-on favourite at Hereford. EASY MONEY? He starts his column by answering the question: are this week’s highly hyped Lincoln and National gambles justified? Imagine that, without winning a match, West Brom and Middlesbrough are suddenly pushed into the top half of the Premiership and the Big Four all hang up their boots. That’s what’s happened in the Grand National. Racing’s authorities, so keen to create a limited handicap of quality horses, have watched their Aintree Premiership disintegrate. One after another, the big players have defected: Exotic Dancer, Madison Du Berlais, Snoopy Loopy, Imperial Commander.. Now even Nozic is said to be pulling out because their absence raises him to the top of the handicap. And those who spotted that the tag ‘class horse’ then passed to War Of Attrition, and backed him accordingly, are likely to find him giving weight all round, a task achieved only once in a lifetime. The Lincoln gamble is different but equally problematical, depending as it does on the weather and the draw.  The 10-furlong horse Expresso Star needs two things: rain to bring his stamina into play and a draw on the same side as the pace horses to ensure a good gallop. In other words, this gamble is still in the espresso machine and, when it’s finally in the cup, it could have a bitter taste. That is my answer to why I have ignored the ante-post markets this week. The draw will be known by the time you read this, and there will be the usual rush to back the high numbers. I’ll let you know my opinion tomorrow. Meanwhile, Towcester has a Class-3 handicap in name only today: none of the market leaders have won at this level over hurdles. Victor Dartnall and his Russian Partners team of owners, so successful raiding foreign parts with the likes of Russian Trigger, have sent Dancing Mist (3.55) across country from Devon to Towcester, getting nearly a stone from that bunch of not-so-attractive favourites: at 15.5 on the Daq this morning, worth a pound. Carry Duff (3.20) is back on a track that suits and has got his ground; Freeline Fury is on a roll since changing stables: at 5.8 and 8.8  respectively, I can dutch in the ratio of around 4:2.5 for a similar profit whichever one wins. I usually make my money at this time of year from Cheltenham failures dropped in class, and – with no money for the Henderson runner this morning – Ruthenoise (4.30) looks a decent bet after her fair effort in the Ballymore. At Hereford, the focus of attention is Rippling Ring (3.45): will fences transform the Ditcheat ‘morning glory’, who has looked so good at home he was once backed to win the Champion Hurdle? Paul Nicholls has found the weakest possible race for one of the yard’s worst flops. Having created a massive pool of laying resources from more than 200 successes, I am happy to lay him and take him on with Sirius Storm: the ground has eased sufficiently for him and he’s shown fluency to win three hurdles and made all in a point. Rippling Ring should be 4-1 on here but is only around tips on, as I write, suggesting very little confidence behind him. Of course, if there is money, so much the better: liabilities diminished. So it’s not the end of the world if Rippling Ring wins – after all it’s number 13 in my sequence – but it could well be the end of his career if he loses.
TODAY'S BETS
DUTCH to win 14 points CARRY DUFF and FREELINE FURY (3.20 Towcester) LAY to win 10pts RIPPLING RING and 2pts win SIRIUS STORM (3.45 Hereford) BET 1pt win and 1pt place DANCING MIST (3.55 Towcester) BET 6pts win (nap) RUTHENOISE (4.30 Towcester)
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DAQMAN on WEDNESDAY

Wednesday 25 March DARK HORSES: This week Daqman has put in the archives his class horses to follow for the Flat, and a separate list of handicappers. Today he nominates 10 ‘dark’ horses, animals with little or no public form to date or form which seriously underestimates their true talent. All are from top yards, and the first one runs tonight! The rest of his bets are at the foot of the column: Daqman has had four winning doubles in Daq Multiples in the last two days. I think it’s a first for me, listing a Clive Brittain animal as one to follow and, on top of that, she was only ‘dark’ for 10 minutes! That’s because her workmate on the gallops went and won the Spring Cup on the Winter Derby card. However, I’ve kept her in the list, with my man in the long grass insisting: “Should be a penalty kick in her maiden first time out this season.” Well, there she is: Haakima (6.50) at Kempton Park tonight. Don’t let me down, Clive! I want to see more of that soft-shoe shuffle you showed Clare Balding in the paddock last year. Cartoon (Michael Jarvis, 3): Very smart Danehill Dancer filly who needs top of the ground. Shaped with a degree of promise on the debut last season but was not knocked about. Has really impressed in the winter months and is crying out for at least a mile. Half-sister to the classy Stetchworth Prince and Smirk. Haakima (Clive Brittain, 3): Ignore last season’s form: this filly has come on a ton over the winter and has been very impressive in home work. Galloped smartly with the Spring Cup winner Nashmiah and looks a Listed sort or even Group-3. Highland Glen (Sir Michael Stoute, 3): Down the field on his only start last season but a very good work horse, suggesting the run wasn’t a true representation of his ability. This Montjeu (out of a Daylami mare) has wintered really well. Implication (Ed Dunlop, 3): A nice filly who disappointed on her debut at HQ when quietly fancied. By Pivotal, she was put in a soft-ground race but that may not be her preferred conditions after all. Has been coming on nicely over the winter months and has no shortage of ability. Held in high regard by connections. Leahurst (Jeremy Noseda, 3): Dreadfully green on the debut but was always going to be a second-season animal. Since gelded, he has filled out nicely and has really been catching the eye in the early gallops. Native Ruler (Henry Cecil, 3): Half-brother to Sixties Icon, out of the Oaks winning Love Divine. A strong sort, he has wintered very well and is starting to take the eye on the Racecourse gallops. Still in the Derby. Pellinore (Ed Vaughan, 3): Very well bred filly, by Giant’s Causeway out of a Rainbow Quest mare, she has always worked nicely at home. Has done well over the winter and, whilst this trainer is not pressing many buttons at home yet, she gives the initial impression she could be very useful. Plymouth Rock (Jeremy Noseda, 3): A lovely strong Sadler’s Wells colt who did nothing but grow last season, hinting at ability on the gallops, and over the winter months has developed into a really smart prospect. Will need a bit of cut in the ground and possibly 10 furlongs. Signella (Peter Chapple-Hyam, 3): This recent AW winner is still ‘dark’ because she crept on to the stage with no ballyhoo but, in obtaining a mark of 69, looks seriously well handicapped and will improve the proverbial ‘ton’, stepped up to 12-14f. Really impressed working with the highly-regarded Select last week. Too Much Trouble (Mick Channon, 3): Winner of his only start last season, the Barathea colt is really catching the eye on the gallops. Oozes class and ‘could be anything’ over 10-12f.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 5pts win MARIGOLDS WAY (4.30 Taunton) BET 5pts win HAAKIMA (6.50 Kempton) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble MARIGOLDS WAY and HAAKIMA with MIDSUMMER MAGIC (4.10 Towcester).
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Ireland's Eye - Wednesday

Wednesday 25 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Success aplenty yesterday with win and place material with our nap Professor Higgins (11/8-6/5) succeeding in Sedgefield with the placed money going to Whatadifference (25/1) in the same contest. Meanwhile in Southwell It’s Like That (7/4) landed the odds while we also garnered some placed money from Willywont He (16/1) in the hunter chase in Sedgefield.

Today our best bets look likely to be in the closing races on the Towcester card with a mare making her hurdling debut and a hunter chaser with course form who shaped well last time.

Henry Dalys team are in fine form at present and he has struck up a good partnership with Richard Johnson and the duo could be on the mark in the 3-00 at Taunton in a novice hurdle over 2m 3 1/2f with the 6yo Rockiteer. The son of Rudimentary was placed in a bumper on this course and he showed the right attitude to land an average Huntingdon maiden hurdle last time and he should be capable of stepping up in this similarly modest contest where the ex Irish Schindlers Son could pose the main danger.

Though the progressive 5yo Spanish Conquest will start at short odds in the 2m 1f hc hurdle in Taunton at 4-00 it is hard to get away from the hat trick seeking gelding under up and coming 5lb claiming ace Rhys Flint for the Philip Hobbs yard. A five penalty for his last success may not be enough to stop the youngster and he should land the spoils at the expense of another improving sort in Hot Diamond and the consistent mare Winsley Hill.

The Queens Midsummer Magic is the only penalised runner in the 2m 5f mares novice hurdle in Towcester at 4-10 but the Tony McCoy ridden 5yo could find it difficult to give the weight away here and the two against the field look to be Henry Dalys Speed Bonnie Boat and Tokahy. The former has shaped well in her four starts over hurdles to date and should be suited by the step up in trip but the vote goes to the Pike runner Tokahy who is bred to get the trip and the Robert Thornton ridden 6yo has shown enough in bumpers to indicate that this contest is within her compass.

Rydal Park boasts a course and distance in the closing 2m 6f hunter chase in Towcester and the 8yo ran well enough when taking fourth in a competitive affair in Leicester last time. However he followed up a highly creditable third to Christies winner Cappa Bleu earlier this year when attempting to give him 7lbs and since followed up with a point victory and though his jumping has been somewhat inconsistent he should prove too strong for promising point winner Caveman and Back Nine here on his favoured good ground.

ADVICE
5pt win ROCKITEER 3-00 Taunton
4pt win SPANISH CONQUEST 4-00 Taunton
2pt win (saver) HOT DIAMOND 4-00 Taunton
1pt win (saver) WINSLEY HILL 4-00 Taunton
4pt win TOKAHY 4-10 Towcester
2pt win (saver) SPEED BONNIE BOAT 4-10 Towcester
6pt win (nap) RYDAL PARK 4-40 Towcester
1pt (saver) CAVEMAN 4-40 Towcester
BETDAQ MULTI BET – 4 Trebles 1 accum RYDAL PARK, TOKAHY, ROCKITEER  and SPANISH CONQUEST



 

Ireland's Eye on Tuesday

Tuesday 24 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Dreamy Sweeney (6/4-10/11) kept us among the winners while our second choice Finian’s Rainbow (6/4-11/10) also scored but we did get the opener on the Plumpton card wrong yesterday which upset the applecart somewhat.

The hunter chases on the Sedgefield and Southwell offer a couple of good bets today whilst a couple of former Irish point winners should ‘hit the bullseye’ in chases at both venues.

J P McManus runner It’s Like That has seen little racing over the years and the former Nenagh point winner has scored twice for the Johnjo O’Neill yard – the last win being in a Market Rasen 2m 6 1/2f hc chase on soft. The 9yo ran arguably his best race when finishing runner up to Joe Blake on fast ground in a top hunter chase in 2007 and the better ground in this 3m ½ hc chase in Southwell at 2-40 should be ‘right up his street’ and in receipt of 8lbs from main danger Killard Point the Alan Berry ridden gelding can make it a hat trick under Rules for the in form yard.

The 3m 1/2f hunter chase on the Southwell card at 3-10 looks fairly open but though Peter Bowens Lawyer Des Ormeaux is returning from nearly a year off the course the 10yo could prove the answer here under a useful 3lb claimer. The 108 rated chase winner will be suited by the ground and the trip and he could have the edge on another former chase winner The Local who has the advantage of a run this year and the former Irish pointer/chaser Van Ness.

Point winner Professor Higgins has proved costly to follow since joining the Howard Johnson yard but the consistent 6yo has been showing up better on both his chase starts of late and only lost out narrowly in Catterick on final run over the minimum trip recently. The Denis O’Regan ridden gelding can make it third time lucky in the 3-30 in Sedgefield – a 2m 1/2f novice event where the former ex Charlie Swan trained Whatadifference may prove the main danger on this drying surface at bigger odds.

Although the closing hunter chase on the Sedgefield card looks a decidedly open affair there should be value in supporting the former Paul Nicholls front running Smart Cavalier in this 2m 4f event. His final run when proving no match for the useful The Reverend was a decent effort and dry ground will not prove a stumbling block for the 10yo and he can see off the recent good point winner Willywont He and easy last time out course and distance winner Nouvea Marie who should be the automatic choice but has not been the most consistent in the past.

ADVICE
5pt win IT’S LIKE THAT 2-40 Southwell
4pt win LAWYER DE ORMEAUX 3-10 Southwell
1pt place THE LOCAL 3-10 Southwell
1pt win VAN NESS 3-10 Southwell
6pt win (nap) PROFESSOR HIGGINS 3-30 Sedgefield
1pt place WHATADIFFERENCE 3-30 Sedgefield
3pt win SMART CAVALIER 5-00 Sedgefield
1pt win 1pt place WILLYWONT HE 5-00 Sedgefield


 

DAQMAN on TUESDAY

Tuesday 24 March It’s all change in the Lincoln. Daqman’s list of handicappers to follow comes today with that warning for Doncaster at the weekend. The list is the pick from the major stables of horses with potential targets at Newmarket, York and Royal Ascot, and includes some early-season sorts. Look out tomorrow for his final group: these are the ‘dark’ horses, spotted from quiet runs last year or unraced altogether. His tips for today are at the foot of the column. Wait for it! Thousands of punters still remember the continuous flow of big-odds Lincoln Handicap winners up to the last decade and have been punting accordingly with the bookies.  But the Lincoln has changed as the strategy for classier limited handicaps gains momentum: whether you agree with that strategy or not, you have to modify your betting accordingly. In the last decade, all winners have carried 8st 9lb or more and we’ve had four favourites up and seven out of 10 at 10-1 or less. I’ll be looking for value as the race approaches, but a going change is likely with rain forecast at Doncaster from tomorrow so, all in all, it may be advisable to wait until the day. Meanwhile, here is a short list of handicappers to keep an eye out for in the early weeks of the Flat season, with the prospects of two or three Lincoln fancies previewed among them: Bullet Man (Luca Cumani, 4): Still backward when winning on the All Weather before Christmas but nothing could hide his ability when seen working with the smart Purple Moon and Swop. He looks a classy prospect for this season in 10-12f handicaps. He could be this year’s Presvis. Expresso Star (John Gosden, 4): Impressed in a gallop over the weekend when striding on from his Lincoln rival Charm School. Very forward in his work but he stays very well and will want the ground soft. Massively improved over the winter and can bag a decent handicap before potentially stepping into Group company later on. Fireside (Michael Jarvis, 4): Has done very well since leaving Peter Chapple-Hyam: was a very buzzy type, but is starting to switch off nicely and looks a proper miler in the making. He may find the Lincoln coming one gallop short but he’s looked impressive in his work and he is sure to take a hand at Doncaster, if he gets in and if it doesn’t come up too testing. Glass Harmonium (Sir Michael Stoute, 3): Big unfurnished colt last season who wasn’t asked too many questions at home and won nicely in a weak race. The handicapper has been kind and he looks the sort to make up into a decent 12f type this season but no surprise if he ended up a Leger horse. Expected to go the same route as the likes of Papal Bull by returning for a valuable 12f handicap at Newmarket in April. Harry Patch (Michael Jarvis, 3): Took a long time to come to hand last season but rounded off the year with a couple of decent successes. Has improved over the winter and stretched out well in his first gallop last week. Looks a likable sort who could be aimed at the leading 3yo sprints with something like the William Hill at York a possible target. A smart speed horse. Jaser (Peter Chapple-Hyam, 4): Always one to catch early and he has been very impressive working with a nice 3yo of late. Well handicapped on last season’s form, he’ll pick up one or two quick races when he has the soft ground he needs. Prohibition (William Haggas, 3): Never really lived up to the hype of his mightily impressive Newmarket gallops last season but has always looked the type to do better at three. Has wintered very well and, whilst only in steady work at present, he is already giving the impression he could be a shade smart. A mark of 81 seems sure to be exploited early. Secret Society (Michael Bell, 3): Likely to be aimed at the Britannia Handicap but should start off on a good mark, having raced against modest animals last season. Has worked well with the likes of Art Connoisseur and looks sure to make up into a smart sort. Will need fast ground to be seen at his best. Silver Games (Mick Channon, 3):  Travelled well for the best part of the way in the Spring Cup on Saturday but blew up after running wide from a high draw, a bit too keen off a slow pace. She has been showing enough at home with the Rockfel winner Lahaleeb to suggest she is better than her mark. Likely to be seen to better effect with cut in the ground and remains an exciting prospect who could target that valuable fillies handicap at Royal Ascot. Spiritual Art (Simon Callaghan, 3): Nice prospect who won a couple of minor sprints well last backend. Has improved in the winter months and connections paid good money to keep her at the sales in February. Looks an improving sprinter who has more to come off her current mark.
TODAY'S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles MURAWEG (2.50 Lingfield), MASTER NIMBUS (3.30 Sedgfield), GREEN VELVET (3.50 Lingfield) and LATIN SCHOLAR (5.10 Southwell)
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Ireland's Eye - Monday

Monday 23 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Coffee Tea Or Me (7/4-11/10) did the business for us in the opener in Cork on Sunday though our only other selection Presenting Massey (4-7/2) could only manage fourth in the final race on the same card.

Today we split our bets between Kempton and Plumpton where an older former pointer could be the value in a handicap chase at the former track.

Nicky Henderson team continues to be running well and he could bag another winner in the opener on the Plumpton card – a 2m novice hurdle with the once raced (over jumps) Know The Law who went down narrowly to a fair sort in Gloucester on somewhat easier ground in Fakenham a month ago. The former David Elsworth trained flat performer can land the odds here under Tony McCoy from another ex flat racer Long Distance where First Avenue looks likely to start favourite.

Dreamy Sweeney career in Britain has not gone according to plan to date and the 7yo has failed to complete in two starts to date. However Nicky Hendersons charge won his point by a wide margin from the subsequent impressive Christies Foxhunters winner Cappa Bleu on yielding ground and he can land the 2-40 in Kempton under Barry Geraghty – a 2m 5f novice hurdle at admittedly short odds where he looks to have Philip Hobbs Balthazar King to beat.

Super Lord a former dual point winner in Ireland and now an 11yo is hardly the automatic choice to land the 3m hc chase in Kempton at 5-00. Though he has pulled up on both starts of late on more demanding ground he will be suited by the better surface here and Jim Olds horses often improve for a run or two and he is worth a small wager at generous odds in a contest which will hardly take much winning under Jason Maguire.

Emma Lavelles yard are in rude health at present and though she in company with Alan King are doubly represented in the bumper at 5-30 on the Kempton card it is the twice raced Lavelle runner Nice One Eic who just gets the nof following a fair fourth placing against a better fancied stable mate last time. The former once raced pointer and expensive purchase Finian’s Rainbow (who would have won well but for falling at the last in a decent Inch maiden last year on decent ground) would rate an automatic choice but though he looks the obvious danger it seems as if the 6yo preparation has not gone swimmingly and the Jack Doyle ridden 5yo rates the better value on this better surface.

Divy ran a fine race on his bumper debut three weeks ago when going down narrowly to the rudderless but useful three time bumpers corer Frascati Park in Southwell and the 4yo will start favourite to go one better in the closing bumper over 2m 2f in Plumpton. However we will take on the likely ‘jolly’ with another once raced sort in the year older Forest Rhythm who shaped well when taking a fine third when seemingly unfancied in a similar Fontwell event a month ago. The Mullins trained gelding could prove the answer here under 3lb claimer Wayne Kavanagh.

ADVICE
5pt win KNOW THE LAW 2-30 Plumpton
1pt win LONG DISTANCE 2-30 Plumpton
lay to lose 5pt FIRST AVENUE 2-30 Plumpton
6pt win DREAMY SWEENEY 2-40 Kempton
2pt win SUPER LORD 5-00 Kempton
3pt win NICE ONE ERIC 5-30 Kempton
2pt win (saver) FINIAN’S RAINBOW 5-30 Kempton
4pt win FOREST RHYTHM 5-50 Plumpton