Ireland's Eye Tuesday + Cheltenham Preview

Tuesday 3 March


IRELAND'S EYE - CHELTENHAM

The Gold Cup normally tends to be one of those races where there is a strong favourite for the prize but though the 2007 champion Kauto Star heads the market at around 2-98 on the DAQ I have been against the talented French bred in the last couple of years (finally got it right last year) and at the odds this this time round I will be taking him on.

There are plenty of question marks against last years champ Denman (now out to 6.6) who did us proud last year and at present we will hold fire on whether to side with him until we hear more from the ever informative Paul Nicholls. Indeed it is last years third Neptune Collonges, fresh from his recent victory in Ireland over Notre Pere and available at 7.2 which catches the eye from the top half of the betting.

However the Cheltenham centerpiece in latter years boasts a decent record in regard of former point to pointers and with this in mind a tickle on a couple of the more promising sorts in Air Force One and Imperial Commander could reap some reward in the win and place market.

 The former did disappoint somewhat in finishing second in the Hennessy to Madison De Berlais but that form has received a fine boost in the interim with the winner turning over an admittedly below par Denman and whilst Charlie Manns gelding must put a shocker in the King George behind him if he can be returned freshened up then the available odds of around 30.0 would represent a sporting wager.

However the latter – Imperial Commander from the Twiston Davies yard could represent even better value at odds of 86.0, Ok so we have not seen him since Christmas and he may take his chance in the Ryanair Chase instead and though the stable can hardly be described as ‘bombing’ there have been some more encouraging signs in the past few weeks.

The progressive Marcus De Berlais at 9.6 cannot be discounted and in truth is arguably the form horse at present and The Martin Pipe gelding merits serious consideration.

It is difficult to get excited by the Irish challenge though on soft ground Jim Dreapers Notre Pere (44.0) cannot be left out of the equation but it is probably too much of an ask for the progressive sort at this stage.

Barbers Shop will have his supporters but I for one will be surprised if he can ‘cut the mustard’.

The two races at the Festival which would take a leap of faith to oppose the favourites are the WORLD HURDLE and the QUEEN MOTHER CHASE.

Both Kasbah Bliss (2-23) and Master Minded (1.41) are admittedly at scrooge like odds but look rock solid but they could be beneficial in Multi Bets

The value could lie with Neptune Collonges, Air Force One and Imperial Commander and we will divide our bet as follows:

ADVICE

GOLD CUP on March 13th
2pt win 1pt place NEPTUNE COLLONGES at 7.2
1pt win 1pt place AIR FORCE ONE at 30.0
1pt win 1pt place IMPERIAL COMMANDER at 86.0 with a run

BETDAQ MULTIBET
1pt double NEPTUNE COLLONGES and KASBAH BLISS

 

IRELAND'S EYE - TUESDAY

Todays action is at Exeter and Newcastle and there looks to be a couple of decent bets in the earlier contests while the Newcastle bumper also catches the eye.

There is an interesting opener on the Newcastle card with half a dozen possibles lining up in the 2m novice hurdle at 2-20 where the previous winner Magellan Straits, Ockey De Neulliac and Steady Tiger will all have their supporters with the last named looking the most interesting as he boasts an unbeaten record having just raced twice.

However it is never wise to wade into these delicate types and we will instead go with the Kayf Tara 6yo Lord Larsson who has been showing decent form over hurdles in starts to date, including a fair third over the course and distance. Though he needs to settle a little better he could still provide the value here for the Malcolm Jefferson yard with Phil Kinsella on board with Ockey De Neulliac likely to pose the main danger.

The opener on the Exeter card sees a few winners taking on non winners in a 2m 7 1/2f novice where Giles Cross is likely to head the market at the expense of Our Bomber Harris. Though the former must hold major claims he is encountering fast ground under Rules for the first time (did win English point on better however) and for that reason is opposable. Our Bomber Harris is certainly not the easiest convenience and will need all of Ruby Walshs skills to get home over this trip so a tentative vote goes to Emma Lavelles Vagrant Tanner who let us down when just nailed less a fortnight ago over a shorter trip. His stamina must be taken on trust but with a 9lb pull with the principals (including Jack Doyles 3lb claim) he may prove the answer here from Our Bomber Harris.

Valleyofthedolls did the business for us last time when scoring on her hurdle debut in Southwell and though we are slow to desert her in the 3-00 in Exeter which is a 2m 3f mares novice hurdle she might find it difficult to give 6lbs to the useful dual bumper Lavender Track from the David Arbuthnot yard. Though the latter has to overcome more than a years absence from the course she could have too much in the way of class for her rivals and the Andy Thornton ridden 7yo is given a tentative vote to deliver the goods at first time of asking over hurdles  where Minnie Hall could prove a danger if the market speaks in her favour.

It is never wise to go ‘over the top’ about previous winners in bumpers as they are always likely to be done by an unexposed newcomer but the Ewart trained 4yo Bishops Heir could be a ‘likely lad’ in the closing bumper in Newcastle at 5-20. The well related sort stepped up markedly on his debut effort to land a course and distance bumper in a fair time here over a month ago on testing ground. He can prove the answer here at the expense of the interesting and expensively purchased debutant River Music from the Howard Johnson yard. Though our selection has to give 7lbs to the latter he does have the invaluable racecourse experience under his belt. 

ADVICE
3pts win LORD LARSSON 2-20 Newcastle
1pt win (saver) OCKEY DE NEULLIAC 2-20 Newcastle
lay to win 5pts STEADY TIGER 2-20 Newcastle
4pt win VAGRANT EMPEROR 2-30 Exeter
3pt win (saver) OUR BOMBER HARRIS 2-30 Exeter
4pt win LAVENDER TRACK 3-00 Exeter
2pt (saver) VALLEYOFTHEDOLLS 3-00 Exeter
4pt win BISHOPS HEIR 5-20 Newcastle
2pt win (saver) RIVER MUSIC 5-20 Newcastle