Friday 6 March
IRELAND'S EYE - CHELTENHAM
Today we will continue our ongoing search for value at the Festival where we look at the Christies Foxhunters Chase and the Fred Winter Novice Hurdle.
The complexion of the Foxhunters market will change if the handicapper goes with the handicap system and/or hunter chase form as it could result in the exclusion of the former Pat O’Connor trained Cappa Bleu (6.8) who has been making a big impression in English points since joining Sheila Crow. One would have to dispute a system where an up and coming pointer is omitted at the possible inclusion of a veteran and possibly ‘over the hill’ ex chaser.
The seven year old obviously is arguably the most progressive runner in the field but lacks experience over the major obstacles and a sounder bet at bigger odds is the Tom Costello trained Carronhills (at about 20.0) on the Daq. Though an 8yo he is lightly raced and though he failed to follow up his facile maiden hunter chase success over Freneys Well when losing out to the leading Irish hunter chaser Agus A Vic he cannot be dismissed and with Nina Carberry on board has a most capable pilot.
Another worth a wager is the Camilla Scott trained Southwestern at 28.0 as this fellow ran better than his final placing in fifth would indicate in last years renewal behind Amicelli as he was making progress from off the pace till erring two out. In addition he might have gone close to collecting one of Irelands top hunter chases in Punchestown but for toppling at the second last when in front. Though his jumping is obviously not guaranteed to ‘pass muster’ he should not be far away with a clear round.
The Irish look to have a strong hand this year and the Brian Hamilton trained Chief Oscar (44.0) is another long priced individual meriting attention. The son of Oscar is unbeaten in two points and two hunter chases and though he only just got home narrowly recently against Bally Wall he is a sound jumper who acts on most grounds and he could appreciate the extended 3m 2f trip here.
The dual hunter chase winner Border Fusion (19.0) has not added to those wins in his last couple of efforts and though he was well held in third behind Murphys Cardinal recently in Haydock on heavy he will be much better served by better ground – a live possiblity at the moment.
Marblehead at 50.0 has possibilities but his front running style may not be an advantage over this gruelling course whilst the chief Irish hope will be Eugene O’Sullivans Juveigneur and the former Nicky Henderson trained 12yo boasts a fine record at the track, landing the Kim Muir in 2005 and was also runner up twice in the William Hill Trophy. He is unbeaten in three runs ‘between the flags’ in Ireland this season and he could go close to giving his trainer his second success in the race some 20 years after his first.
Arguably one of the trickiest handicaps over the four days is the Fred Winter Juvenile Novice hc chase and there has already been an ante post gamble on the ex French Edward O’Grady trained Alexander Severus who landed his maiden in Leopardstown and looked decidedly unlucky not to follow up some three weeks later when meeting trouble in running to finish third to See U Bob with the Dessie Hughes trained Flag Of Honour just ahead of O’Gradys charge in second.
Though there would appear to be value in Flag Of Honour at 20.0 who looks identical to the favourite on strict interpretation of the form on their last running it is hard to ascertain what the Edward O’Grady runner who is trading at 6.6 on the Daq.
Nicky Hendersons Higgys Boy (18.0) has scored two out of three over hurdles to date and his only defeat came on testing ground and off 10-12 must enter calculations if he lines up here instead of the Triumph Hurdle while an interesting runner towards the bottom of the handicap is the maiden PSI who is trading at 94.0 and looks a likely outsider for the Moore yard.
The Tim Vaughan trained Ski Sunday (17.0) is clearly on the upgrade and would prove of interest if he takes his chance while Emma Lavelles Amore Mio scored well in Sandown when scoring at the third time of asking and at 12.0 he could prove a major player here.
As in several races at the moment the final lineup would need to be established for one to be dogmatic about the outcome of this particular contest.
ADVICE
2pt win JUVEIGNEUR Christies Foxhunter
1pt win 1pt place SOUTHWESTERN Christies Foxhunters
1pt win 1pt place BORDER FUSION Christies Foxhunters
1pt win 1pt place CARRONHILLS Christies Foxhunters
1pt place CHIEF OSCAR Christies Foxhunters
1pt win ALEXANDER SEVERUS Fred Winter Novice hc Hurdle
1pt win 1pt place PSI Fred Winter Novice hc Hurdle
1pt win 1pt place FLAG OF HONOUR Fred Winter Novice hc Hurdle
FRIDAY 6 MARCH
Yesterday wound up Even Stephen on our selections with just our saver Who Else Knew (15/2) scoring in the hunter chase in Wincanton whilst we were just touched off with our tentative selection Gentle Ranger (6/1) in the novice chase in Lingfield.
We will stick mainly to the hunter chases today in our ongoing pursuit of the Cheltenham expenses and there is plenty of choice – if not quality on show before the Lord Mayors Ball.
Former Irish pointer Bolachoir did me a turn at decent odds in landing the corresponding Military Gold Cup in Sandown at 3-20 having won at bigger odds on his first start at the same track some three weeks previously. He is united with his partner from last years corresponding race and will be suited by the dry ground and he can register another success on the track at the main expense of Oakfield Legend while his ex stablemate Jamadiel (winner of nine of his last ten starts ‘between the flags’) and the front running Bannister Lane will have their supporters.
The hunter chase at Leicester at 3-40 over an extended 2m 7f looks a highly decent affair with most the field holding chances of some kind. However we went with the relatively unexposed Whistling Straits last time and effectively his chance disappeared at the start when he was left some twenty lengths. He can make amends here in the hands of Richard Burton where the decent if not entirely foot perfect Rydal Park (fresh from a recent point success) and the formerly useful Young Collier could prove his main dangers.
The extended 3m hunter chase at 4-30 on the Sandown card sees quite a few former Irish pointers in action but the lightly raced former hat trick point winner Get My Drift and Elenas River have not indicated that they are not the force of old. However the same may not apply to the former Michael Phillips trained chase and point winner Van Ness who showed his well being with victory in a point over a month ago and he could follow up here at the expense of the formerly useful Hot ‘N’Holy.
There is an interesting bumper over 2m to close the card in Wincanton at 5-30 where the twice raced Paul Nicholls trained Pennellis will be fancied to make it third time lucky under Ruby Walsh having displayed promise in two similar Chepstow affairs. However we will take on the ‘jolly’ with the Emma Lavelle trained Nice One Eric who raced a little too keenly before finishing a fine fifth on his debut in a decent Newbury bumper when unfancied ‘at the books’. He could prove the answer here under Jack Doyle and possibly the debutant Rocky Lane from the in form Victor Dartnall yard could prove a bigger danger than the favourite – especially if the market speaks in his favour.
ADVICE
4pt win BOLACHOIR 3-20 Sandown
4pt win WHISTLING STRAITS 3-40 Leicester
2pt win (saver) RYDAL PARK 3-40 Leicester
3pt win VAN NESS 4-30 Sandown
1pt win (saver) HOT ‘N’HOLY 4-30 Sandown
4pt win NICE ONE ERIC 5-30 Wincanton
1pt (saver) ROCKY LANE 5-30 Wincanton
BETDAQ MULTIBET – 1pt trebles, accum MAT HILL, MARCHANT D’ARGENT, BALLYVADEN and THE GOSSMOOR YANK
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